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[Xis]

Hey, I've noticed this too, with at least one guy I know wanting to put down money on the outcome. I don't know what it is about Trump that engenders such optimism (or is it a form of self-delusion?)

Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.

 

[Grexeno]

Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.

Actually seems like a lot of the "Trump will win" people are liberals who always assume America will make the worst possible choice at any moment.

 

[nature boy]

Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 50s50 seconds ago
CBS battleground polls

VIRGINIA
Clinton 49%
Trump 37%

ARIZONA
Trump 44%
Clinton 42%

NEVADA
Clinton 43%
Trump 41%

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/07/cbs-battleground-tracker-arizona-nevada-virginia/

 

[Valhelm]

I was referring to discourse by his opponent. He was not called any of those things by McCain or Romney. What Trump has done is nornalize this extreme, dangerous, counter-productive language by using it himself.

It's a little scary.

Don't mean to sound conservative by saying this, but I'm bothered by the increasingly causal nature of political discourse. US elections are too important to be won by dick jokes and emojis.

I worry that treating politics informally could keep many voters from taking politics seriously.

 

[Y2Kev]

Take Virginia off the board, lol. Nevada I am fine with as its tough to poll.

 

[kess]

Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.

Funny thing is that most of them aren't in any bubble worse than any of us are. I think, however, Trump supporters are the loudest, most visible supporters, whereas most liberals I've known, including myself, will hedge their bets on the outcome of an election. It doesn't make me any less confident about Hillary, though.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

So if there's a money bet on who wins the election, do you place your money on Trump or Hillary?

Going into this, let's assume the odds are in Hillary's favor and you want her to win.

If you bet on Hillary, you'll either get a small return (but she wins) or the double crushing blow of losing the election and your money.

If you bet on Trump, you'll either lose your money (but Hillary wins), or Trump wins and you make a fortune from the bet (thus ensuring you can buy your way out of the Trump sponsored community camps).

Need the actual odds to make a decision

 

[Bowdz]

.

FUCK. AZ is slipping through our cold, robotic fingers. FUCK.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

.

Orange closing in on 2/3

 

[TumblingHippo]

Need the actual odds to make a decision

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Spoiler

If you want to be a millionaire go for Stein.

 

[RastaMentality]

Nate Cohn:

Morning Consult is Clinton+9, up from Clinton+3 immediately after the DNC. Consistent with theory that more is at play than the bounce

 

[Y2Kev]

I can't tell who is sarcastic anymore.

 

[User1608]

Poor Diablos with the FUCK stuff lol.😅

 

[Holmes]

YouGov usually has crappy results for Clinton. I remember their Colorado poll had her up by 1 a couple of weeks before a bunch of other Colorado polls had her up by high single digits/low teens.

 

[Y2Kev]

Whenever I see yougov I think of crab. I dunno why. Maybe because I think of british people. Like YEAH WE GOT YA POLLS HERE I THINK WE SHOULD SHOW THIS WANKA WHAT THE POLLS ARE WHAT DO YOU SAY DOLLY

 

[DrForester]

YouGov usually has crappy results for Clinton. I remember their Colorado poll had her up by 1 a couple of weeks before a bunch of other Colorado polls had her up by high single digits/low teens.

Last Colorado Poll I can find shows her up by 8, and that was on July 15, before either of the Conventions.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Oh God CNN a panel of all Trump supporters? Nope nope nope

 

[Holmes]

Last Colorado Poll I can find shows her up by 8, and that was on July 15, before either of the Conventions.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

YouGov has her up 1 and the polls showing her with significant leads begin about 2 weeks later.

 

[Goodstyle]

She's sick of Weiner

Beat me to it.

 

[BrokenFiction]

Boy, Glenn Greenwald is not enjoying Dems hitting Jill Stein for the Russia thing lately. When you read his Twitter stream, he sounds a bit unhinged.

 

[thebloo]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Spoiler

If you want to be a millionaire go for Stein.

Ted Cruz has better odds than Stein. Haha.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hillary is unhinged.

 

[metalslimer]

Oh my God at that Virginia lead. Also where in the world did Stein get the money to run ads?

 

[Rebel Leader]

Oh God CNN a panel of all Trump supporters? Nope nope nope

Holy fuck

 

[Y2Kev]

Oh my God at that Virginia lead. Also where in the world did Stein get the money to run ads?

Probably Putin.

 

[pigeon]

At this point Nevada isn't just tough to poll, there's just something weird about it. It's been redder than in 2012 in every single poll. Might actually lose it.

That said whatever.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Oh my God at that Virginia lead. Also where in the world did Stein get the money to run ads?

I was about to ask the same thing, her ad is constantly on msnbc.

 

[HylianTom]

Oh my God at that Virginia lead. Also where in the world did Stein get the money to run ads?

I'm never going to get tired of enjoying Virginia being taken off of the board. Such a nice little luxury - peace of mind.

 

[Y2Kev]

At this point Nevada isn't just tough to poll, there's just something weird about it. It's been redder than in 2012 in every single poll. Might actually lose it.

That said whatever.

The only recent polling I see is Assmussen.

 

[pigeon]

Nate Cohn actually just explained it.

Nevada has no college-educated white voters to lose.

This graph is actually explaining everything about the election right now. Please note Georgia and Texas.

 

[Grexeno]

Nate Cohn actually just explained it.

Nevada has no college-educated white voters to lose.

While also simultaneously explaining why Colorado and Virginia are out of play so early.

 

[Y2Kev]

But shouldn't that be balanced by more Latinos?

 

[Y2Kev]

ALSO DO WE NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA

 

[Gruco]

Nate Cohn actually just explained it.

Nevada has no college-educated white voters to lose.

This graph is actually explaining everything about the election right now. Please note Georgia and Texas.

I would think this is more than offset but the Mormon and Hispanic populations.

That said, that's an awesome graph. Trump increasingly looking hard blocked by VA, CO, and PA.

 

[Holmes]

I can't believe DQVII 3DS is gonna be MIDI-only. Suckquare-Enix gonna suck.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

ALSO DO WE NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA

Have those words ever been sincerely uttered by anyone?

 

[BrokenFiction]

Have those words ever been sincerely uttered by anyone?

"There's a WEST Virginia?!"

 

[FloydtheFathead]

"There's a WEST Virginia?!"

There technically shouldn't be.. We shouldn't recognize it!!

Benji will back me up.

 

[gcubed]

If polls have her tied in NV, she wins by 5

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I refuse to believe that you can be in a dead heat in Arizona and Georgia and not be ahead in Nevada by a healthy margin.

 

[avaya]

ALSO DO WE NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA

I would say yes mainly because I fear it will become a cesspit of bitter resentment, fear and hatred, different from the rest of the country as it goes even further Red. So there's something to be said about eventually dealing with these people but I guess pushing a more progressive America will in time help these people out despite their ignorance.

On Nevada - it's simple, Clark County will be all about the Dem GOTV machine. Everything else is irrelevant. She'll clean house when Vegas votes overwhelmingly Blue on the day. If it's tied in polling, which is just dogshit in the state, she's likely up 5-6pts.

 

[Holmes]

I would say yes mainly because I fear it will become a cesspit of bitter resentment, fear and hatred, different from the rest of the country as it goes even further Red. So there's something to be said about eventually dealing with these people but I guess pushing a more progressive America will in time help these people out despite their ignorance.

We can build a wall around it.

 

[RustyNails]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/07/cbs-battleground-tracker-arizona-nevada-virginia/

I'm ok with those numbers in NV, even if she is tied. Her Latino ground game is formidable. Thats easily gonna push her over the top.The less educated whites (Trump's biggest electorate) will need serious education on voting.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Nevada seems like it would be a blue state. It's just Reno, Vegas and desert?

Or is there something I'm missing for why Nevada is GOP controlled and mostly a red state?

 

[Bowdz]

Nevada seems like it would be a blue state. It's just Reno, Vegas and desert?

Or is there something I'm missing for why Nevada is GOP controlled and mostly a red state?

And our Lord Elon Musk's, blessed be his name, Gigafactory. Praise be Musk.

 

[teiresias]

On Fox News right now "Softballs for Hillary: She 'Short Circuited' Interview".

 

[pigeon]

On Fox News right now "Softballs for Hillary: She 'Short Circuited' Interview".

As Josh Marshall mentioned, this is really stupid GOP messaging because it doesn't connect at all with the issues people have with Hillary. Nobody believes that Hillary is crazy or careless. The whole problem is that people think she's too calculating.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

On Nevada

Remember

 

[Crisco]

I'd imagine Nevada will poll worse than it actually votes, mostly because the areas that aren't blue are remote as fuck and getting to a booth is a real chore.

 

[DrForester]

Donald Trump used a pen name and wrote a thought provoking letter to the Tampa Bay Times.