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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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X

Xis

Member
kess said:
Hey, I've noticed this too, with at least one guy I know wanting to put down money on the outcome. I don't know what it is about Trump that engenders such optimism (or is it a form of self-delusion?)
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Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
Xis said:
Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.
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Actually seems like a lot of the "Trump will win" people are liberals who always assume America will make the worst possible choice at any moment.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Paradoxal_Utopia said:
I was referring to discourse by his opponent. He was not called any of those things by McCain or Romney. What Trump has done is nornalize this extreme, dangerous, counter-productive language by using it himself.
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It's a little scary.

Don't mean to sound conservative by saying this, but I'm bothered by the increasingly causal nature of political discourse. US elections are too important to be won by dick jokes and emojis.

I worry that treating politics informally could keep many voters from taking politics seriously.
 
K

kess

Member
Xis said:
Most people live in a bubble. If they support Trump, and most of the people around them support Trump, then Trump must surely be leading.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is that most of them aren't in any bubble worse than any of us are. I think, however, Trump supporters are the loudest, most visible supporters, whereas most liberals I've known, including myself, will hedge their bets on the outcome of an election. It doesn't make me any less confident about Hillary, though.
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
TumblingHippo said:
So if there's a money bet on who wins the election, do you place your money on Trump or Hillary?

Going into this, let's assume the odds are in Hillary's favor and you want her to win.

If you bet on Hillary, you'll either get a small return (but she wins) or the double crushing blow of losing the election and your money.

If you bet on Trump, you'll either lose your money (but Hillary wins), or Trump wins and you make a fortune from the bet (thus ensuring you can buy your way out of the Trump sponsored community camps).
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Need the actual odds to make a decision
 
H

Holmes

Member
YouGov usually has crappy results for Clinton. I remember their Colorado poll had her up by 1 a couple of weeks before a bunch of other Colorado polls had her up by high single digits/low teens.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Whenever I see yougov I think of crab. I dunno why. Maybe because I think of british people. Like YEAH WE GOT YA POLLS HERE I THINK WE SHOULD SHOW THIS WANKA WHAT THE POLLS ARE WHAT DO YOU SAY DOLLY
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
Holmes said:
YouGov usually has crappy results for Clinton. I remember their Colorado poll had her up by 1 a couple of weeks before a bunch of other Colorado polls had her up by high single digits/low teens.
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Last Colorado Poll I can find shows her up by 8, and that was on July 15, before either of the Conventions.
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
Boy, Glenn Greenwald is not enjoying Dems hitting Jill Stein for the Russia thing lately. When you read his Twitter stream, he sounds a bit unhinged.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
At this point Nevada isn't just tough to poll, there's just something weird about it. It's been redder than in 2012 in every single poll. Might actually lose it.

That said whatever.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
pigeon said:
At this point Nevada isn't just tough to poll, there's just something weird about it. It's been redder than in 2012 in every single poll. Might actually lose it.

That said whatever.
Click to expand...

The only recent polling I see is Assmussen.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Nate Cohn actually just explained it.

CpQ-2xZUsAATbv5.jpg


Nevada has no college-educated white voters to lose.

This graph is actually explaining everything about the election right now. Please note Georgia and Texas.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
Nate Cohn actually just explained it.

Nevada has no college-educated white voters to lose.

This graph is actually explaining everything about the election right now. Please note Georgia and Texas.
Click to expand...
I would think this is more than offset but the Mormon and Hispanic populations.

That said, that's an awesome graph. Trump increasingly looking hard blocked by VA, CO, and PA.
 
A

avaya

Member
Y2Kev said:
ALSO DO WE NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA
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I would say yes mainly because I fear it will become a cesspit of bitter resentment, fear and hatred, different from the rest of the country as it goes even further Red. So there's something to be said about eventually dealing with these people but I guess pushing a more progressive America will in time help these people out despite their ignorance.

On Nevada - it's simple, Clark County will be all about the Dem GOTV machine. Everything else is irrelevant. She'll clean house when Vegas votes overwhelmingly Blue on the day. If it's tied in polling, which is just dogshit in the state, she's likely up 5-6pts.
 
H

Holmes

Member
avaya said:
I would say yes mainly because I fear it will become a cesspit of bitter resentment, fear and hatred, different from the rest of the country as it goes even further Red. So there's something to be said about eventually dealing with these people but I guess pushing a more progressive America will in time help these people out despite their ignorance.
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We can build a wall around it.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Nevada seems like it would be a blue state. It's just Reno, Vegas and desert?

Or is there something I'm missing for why Nevada is GOP controlled and mostly a red state?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
teiresias said:
On Fox News right now "Softballs for Hillary: She 'Short Circuited' Interview".
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As Josh Marshall mentioned, this is really stupid GOP messaging because it doesn't connect at all with the issues people have with Hillary. Nobody believes that Hillary is crazy or careless. The whole problem is that people think she's too calculating.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
I'd imagine Nevada will poll worse than it actually votes, mostly because the areas that aren't blue are remote as fuck and getting to a booth is a real chore.
 
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