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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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Let's be real, Trump, Ryan, and McConnel aren't even close to getting a single major piece of legislation put together. From the townhalls, you can see that this administration has sparked anger in people that weren't normally that invested in politics. When it comes time to put together a strategy for elections is where we need to be unified.
 

tuxfool

Banned
Trump Deportation Threats to Constrict Already-Tight Job Market

President Donald Trump’s sweeping crackdown on undocumented immigrants will strain an already tight U.S. job market, with one study suggesting that removing all of them would cost the economy as much as $5 trillion over 10 years.

That represents the contribution of the millions of unauthorized workers to the world’s largest economy, about 3 percent of private-sector gross domestic product, according to a recent paper issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research. At an average of $500 billion in output a year, removing all such immigrants would be like lopping off the equivalent of Massachusetts from the U.S. economy, said study co-author Francesc Ortega.

No shit.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
It's slightly killing me inside that everyone thinks Mayor Pete would be great at the job but no one wants to vote for him. >_< STOP OVERTHINKING THIS DAMNIT.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's slightly killing me inside that everyone thinks Mayor Pete would be great at the job but no one wants to vote for him. >_< STOP OVERTHINKING THIS DAMNIT.

Seriously, just give him the damn job. Primary shit be damned, the re-litigating won't stop regardless of who wins.
 
Let's be real, Trump, Ryan, and McConnel aren't even close to getting a single major piece of legislation put together. From the townhalls, you can see that this administration has sparked anger in people that weren't normally that invested in politics. When it comes time to put together a strategy for elections is where we need to be unified.

The problem is the Republican parties fractured nature. McConnell is less extreme than Ryan in a lot of ways, and the House is the major problem for them. Nothing will clear the House due to them Right Wing Extremists in there who refuse to compromise. If you think passing the ACA was a nightmare because of Blue Dogs, repealing and replacing it from a Republican majority is like living the movie Groundhog Day but with Night Terrors. Nothing short of a clean repeal will get the support of 20-30 Republicans, on top of that another 20-30 want an instant replacement, then there's 20-30 that want certain programs kept and certain programs immediately gone, and Democrats are going to fight them the entire way.

When you do anything to win at all costs, you end up with a political party that is inherently dysfunctional. There is no way in hell these people Repeal and Replace Obamacare as advertised, because it's a divided effort, made up of people who spent 8 years trying to win and now don't have any plans to execute. This doesn't just apply to healthcare either, it's an entire Congressional Majority that is only united by their party in a lot of cases, and broad ideas. You've got 10 Senators who think Abortion should be banned, 10 who think it should be heavily restricted, and 20 who think it should be difficult to obtain but not completely impossible, and none of them will compromise because they found the sweetspot to winning in their state.
 
The problem is the Republican parties fractured nature. McConnell is less extreme than Ryan in a lot of ways, and the House is the major problem for them. Nothing will clear the House due to them Right Wing Extremists in there who refuse to compromise. If you think passing the ACA was a nightmare because of Blue Dogs, repealing and replacing it from a Republican majority is like living the movie Groundhog Day but with Night Terrors. Nothing short of a clean repeal will get the support of 20-30 Republicans, on top of that another 20-30 want an instant replacement, then there's 20-30 that want certain programs kept and certain programs immediately gone, and Democrats are going to fight them the entire way.

When you do anything to win at all costs, you end up with a political party that is inherently dysfunctional. There is no way in hell these people Repeal and Replace Obamacare as advertised, because it's a divided effort, made up of people who spent 8 years trying to win and now don't have any plans to execute. This doesn't just apply to healthcare either, it's an entire Congressional Majority that is only united by their party in a lot of cases, and broad ideas. You've got 10 Senators who think Abortion should be banned, 10 who think it should be heavily restricted, and 20 who think it should be difficult to obtain but not completely impossible, and none of them will compromise because they found the sweetspot to winning in their state.

Exactly, and you don't have the benefit of popularity for the president to use the bully pulpit to try and push legislation. GWB's 9/11 popularity gave him leeway for years that Trump won't have and will be lucky to stay in the 40s for most of his term. At some point republicans have to actually attempt to pass legilsation and it will be hilarious to watch because they don't have a single policy that could pull 60 votes.
 
Let's be real, Trump, Ryan, and McConnel aren't even close to getting a single major piece of legislation put together. From the townhalls, you can see that this administration has sparked anger in people that weren't normally that invested in politics. When it comes time to put together a strategy for elections is where we need to be unified.

The problem is the Republican parties fractured nature. McConnell is less extreme than Ryan in a lot of ways, and the House is the major problem for them. Nothing will clear the House due to them Right Wing Extremists in there who refuse to compromise. If you think passing the ACA was a nightmare because of Blue Dogs, repealing and replacing it from a Republican majority is like living the movie Groundhog Day but with Night Terrors. Nothing short of a clean repeal will get the support of 20-30 Republicans, on top of that another 20-30 want an instant replacement, then there's 20-30 that want certain programs kept and certain programs immediately gone, and Democrats are going to fight them the entire way.

When you do anything to win at all costs, you end up with a political party that is inherently dysfunctional. There is no way in hell these people Repeal and Replace Obamacare as advertised, because it's a divided effort, made up of people who spent 8 years trying to win and now don't have any plans to execute. This doesn't just apply to healthcare either, it's an entire Congressional Majority that is only united by their party in a lot of cases, and broad ideas. You've got 10 Senators who think Abortion should be banned, 10 who think it should be heavily restricted, and 20 who think it should be difficult to obtain but not completely impossible, and none of them will compromise because they found the sweetspot to winning in their state.
The beauty of the GOP fracture is how strictly ideological it comes down to. There are some in the party who think their ideas of governance are the best way forward. There are yet others who simply believe in cutting every regulation and tax, that government shouldn't do anything and everyone needs to fend for themselves.

There's also a political calculation in there - surprise swing votes like Bill Cassidy who recognize how badly a full ACA repeal would blow up in their face, without so much as a token replacement effort.

For all that can be said about Democrats' weaknesses, or what Obama should have done, I honestly don't think ACA is going anywhere. When GOP leaders start talking about "oh, well we're just doing Obamacare repairs" you can tell they've surrendered. Obama crafted a piece of legislation that's virtually impossible to repeal. It would be like repealing Social Security at this point.

To touch on the optics vs. good policy debate that popped up some pages back, I would say this makes Obamacare extremely effective policy, even if its messaging was poor. I think Democrats would have preferred an extra four years at least under Clinton to ensure its longevity, but perhaps the almost seven years it's had are enough.

Kansas (potentially) passing Medicaid expansion is great. Perhaps John Bel's prediction that several more red states would pass it will come true, even with President Trump.

Exactly, and you don't have the benefit of popularity for the president to use the bully pulpit to try and push legislation. GWB's 9/11 popularity gave him leeway for years that Trump won't have and will be lucky to stay in the 40s for most of his term. At some point republicans have to actually attempt to pass legilsation and it will be hilarious to watch because they don't have a single policy that could pull 60 votes.
Irony is that I bet the gang of 8 immigration bill would still get 60 votes in the Senate. Clinton said she had assurances from 60 senators, and that was before the Dem caucus added two members.

If Trump just wants to start passing shit that should have happened under Obama, be my guest. He can nominate Garland to SCOTUS and fix the VRA too while he's at it.
 
There's also a political calculation in there - surprise swing votes like Bill Cassidy who recognize how badly a full ACA repeal would blow up in their face, without so much as a token replacement effort.

For all that can be said about Democrats' weaknesses, or what Obama should have done, I honestly don't think ACA is going anywhere. When GOP leaders start talking about "oh, well we're just doing Obamacare repairs" you can tell they've surrendered. Obama crafted a piece of legislation that's virtually impossible to repeal. It would be like repealing Social Security at this point.

I agree. I'm starting to suspect even the GOP didn't think they would win the Presidency (with Trump) and retain Senate and House control. They just seem like they have no real idea where to go legislatively. All of their proposals are pretty unpopular, and most of the stuff they are vehemently against is the kind of legislation people really want--criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, gay marriage, even stuff like Net Neutrality when properly explained is something people support. It's going to be a tough year or two for Republicans, but honestly, fuck em. They're mostly terrible.

Kansas (potentially) passing Medicaid expansion is great. Perhaps John Bel's prediction that several more red states would pass it will come true, even with President Trump.

I'm hoping this happens because every state that buckles and passes it, is a victory for the ACA. If every state had passed it the ACA would be a more than adequate solution--that we could fine tune to be a good solution over time and eventually phase out in favor of Single Payer. As time goes on the ACA is going to become increasingly essential to the American public, and no amount of "but Obama!" will make that go away. Despite how it seemed at the time, it's almost looking like the ACA will inevitably be Obama's greatest accomplishment.
 
WHCD Roast of Donald Trump

Jimmy Fallon: "I don't mean to call you rich, Mr. President, but when you walk into a bank, all the tellers go 'Yippee!'"

(Rustles his hair)

I'm hoping this happens because every state that buckles and passes it, is a victory for the ACA. If every state had passed it the ACA would be a more than adequate solution--that we could fine tune to be a good solution over time and eventually phase out in favor of Single Payer. As time goes on the ACA is going to become increasingly essential to the American public, and no amount of "but Obama!" will make that go away. Despite how it seemed at the time, it's almost looking like the ACA will inevitably be Obama's greatest accomplishment.
An ACA fix bill with a restored Medicaid expansion, strong public option, and Medicare buy-in at 55 is my dream for the next Democratic president. The Medicare expansion was proposed as a compromise when the public option got chucked, until Lieberman killed if. So whynotboth.gif

Of course, if enough states pass the Medicaid expansion between now and then, it might be a moot point anyway. We'll have to focus on flipping gubernatorial seats and legislatures in states that are particularly susceptible to expanding it.
 
Honestly amidst all the "we should talk about Kansas more" talk I sort of wonder if there's anything long-term we could do there beyond just trying to pick up the governor's mansion. It's not insignificant that in a wave year we picked up seats in the state legislature, right? It's still not pre-2010 levels but I don't think picking up 10% of the state house in a year otherwise marked by losses for the state party is something to ignore.

There's an argument that it's too socially conservative a state to become purple long-term but it did elect Sebelius twice, and it's not like she was a JBE-type blue dog, she was a normalish progressive running in a red state and winning twice. In neighboring Missouri, last year Kander got 46% of the vote while talking about how black lives matter. Kansas is a little less black, but they're otherwise pretty demographically similar states I think.

Something that stands out to me in a lot of these Republican town halls are religious people taking their representatives to task for being un-Christian. There's the woman in Tennessee who was talking about the need for the ACA because Christians have a duty to take care of the sick. There was several appeals to social gospel stuff in Cotton's town hall, including the antiwar guy. I think there's something there, and if the Kansas Democrats could make a real earnest appeal to the social gospel I think that could be big. My grandparents are from Kansas, and they're staunch advocates for equality and justice in a way that's rooted in their Catholicism.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll make a fluke pickup there because of backlash to Brownback and then lose it, but I think there might be a chance to expand the map there. It certainly couldn't hurt if we're looking to do the 50 state strategy.
 
This trend has kind of disturbed me. I really hope the left doesnt tear itself apart while the right laughs maniacally like they usually do. We seem to be going down this road. Remember guys, the right is the party that is backing the pussy grabber potential Russian plant no problem. Think about that.

Arguing about a DNC position and is shitting on Bill Maher is "the left tearing itself apart"?
 

Pixieking

Banned
I agree. I'm starting to suspect even the GOP didn't think they would win the Presidency (with Trump) and retain Senate and House control. They just seem like they have no real idea where to go legislatively.

They were laying the ground work for losing at least a week before the election: If Clinton Wins, Republicans Suggest Shrinking Size of Supreme Court

All of their proposals are pretty unpopular, and most of the stuff they are vehemently against is the kind of legislation people really want--criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, gay marriage, even stuff like Net Neutrality when properly explained is something people support. It's going to be a tough year or two for Republicans, but honestly, fuck em. They're mostly terrible.

This is probably why they're still dear-in-the-headlights. I doubt most GOP legislators are actually stupid. They've got stupid ideas, sure, that doesn't mean they're stupid. My guess is they're stunned the US electorate believes the ideas they're peddling are "good". No doubt some of them - not all, certainly, but some - are caught between honoring their campaign promises and running away from them because they're just bad ideas, with ACA Repeal and Replace being the obvious one.
 

Chumley

Banned
This bloodlust over Bill Maher that emerged while I was away is... something. Am I allowed to say I still like him and watch him every week? I don't think there's a single political commentator on right now who's more vicious towards conservatives.
 
This bloodlust over Bill Maher that emerged while I was away is... something. Am I allowed to say I still like him and watch him every week? I don't think there's a single political commentator on right now who's more vicious towards conservatives.

Well he certainly wasn't vicious towards Milo. He certainly wasn't vicious when he called Milo's argument, that trans women should be kept out of women's bathrooms to protect qomen and girls, reasonable.

This has been a long time coming.
 
I'd take someone less "vicious" who wouldn't sit there letting trans people get shit on any day. This isn't the GWB administration anymore and there are more than enough loud people to tell at conservatives
 

Chumley

Banned
Well he certainly wasn't vicious towards Milo. He certainly wasn't vicious when he called Milo's argument, that trans women should be kept out of women's bathrooms to protect qomen and girls, reasonable.

This has been a long time coming.

What's been a long time coming? He fucked up with the Milo interview and in the overtime segment, but I don't think that's really enough to justify this kind of vitriol when you consider how many shows he's done. Not everyone on the left is going to align 100 percent with anyone's worldview, have perfect morals, or never say something they shouldn't. Maher has always had a hugely irreverent sense of humor, but he doesn't actually hate transgender people or Muslims. I'm not expecting to change anyone's mind, but this is just how I feel about him, others are free to never watch him again.
 
What's been a long time coming? He fucked up with the Milo interview and in the overtime segment, but I don't think that's really enough to justify this kind of vitriol when you consider how many shows he's done. Not everyone on the left is going to align 100 percent with anyone's worldview, have perfect morals, or never say something they shouldn't. Maher has always had a hugely irreverent sense of humor, but he doesn't actually hate transgender people or Muslims. I'm not expecting to change anyone's mind, but this is just how I feel about him, others are free to never watch him again.

Maher has a history of being a poor ally for minorities, especially women and clearly trans folk.

This is not a purity test. He is absolutely a liberal. He's just a mostly useless one. I mean come on calling trans people weirdos? Shrugging at a bullshit claim that trans folk are disproportionately sexual predators?

And he more than fucked up the Milo segment, that was flat out some of the most embarrassing shit I've seen. Not to mention his follow up interview was clown shoes. Where he basically said we need to respect the opinions of transphobic women oh and where he expressed this:

Can he do damage? I suppose he can. To a degree. Not a great degree, I don’t think. Could he offend people? Could he even inspire a borderline person to do something violent?

Essentially saying violent against minorities is just what we have to pay because nothing is free.

And says shit like:

I wasn’t trying to get him removed from society," Maher said, noting that some had tried to do exactly that to him many times over the years. "It just rubs me the wrong way when somebody says, 'I don’t like what this person is saying — he should go away.'"

About folks trying to stop a literal hate monger.

Like sorry but this man is useless
 
He may not "hate" trangender people, in the classic visceral or violent fashion.

But he certainly does not respect them.

He is a privileged rich white male douche.
If you like him though whatever. No one's stopping anyone from watching the douche.

I still don't understand what the appeal is when he's not even funny.
 
This bloodlust over Bill Maher that emerged while I was away is... something. Am I allowed to say I still like him and watch him every week? I don't think there's a single political commentator on right now who's more vicious towards conservatives.

I like him. I don't watch him every week since I don't sub HBO but I do watch some clips every once in a while. I don't agree with everything he says, but he can be entertaining.

Some of the things he says are pretty fucked up too.

Oh, I also used to follow milo when he was on twitter. But then I would unfollow him all the time. He was such a moron/asshole at times. I wasn't following him when he got banned. Don't get me wrong, the guy is scum. But I'm don't mind getting some "alternative" perspectives. Sort of the same thing with Maher, but I do find him a bit more entertaining.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
I missed this stuff with Trump skipping historical chain of command and directly calling the three-star general in charge of Lockheed Martin's F-35 while he had Boeing's CEO in his office. Nothing explicitly improper, but several unprecedented actions. He's just sowing confusion and chaos in the whole bureaucratic process. The President has no business calling a program director directly out of the blue.

Fuck the dinner. It's self congratulatory institutional fluff from people who currently deserve none. Piss on a crutch.
Agreed. Let it die.

So you say. Recall the Stephen Colbert one from a while back?
Colbert was entirely an accident that largely went against the purpose of the event. It's the exception, not the rule.
 
Honestly amidst all the "we should talk about Kansas more" talk I sort of wonder if there's anything long-term we could do there beyond just trying to pick up the governor's mansion. It's not insignificant that in a wave year we picked up seats in the state legislature, right? It's still not pre-2010 levels but I don't think picking up 10% of the state house in a year otherwise marked by losses for the state party is something to ignore.

There's an argument that it's too socially conservative a state to become purple long-term but it did elect Sebelius twice, and it's not like she was a JBE-type blue dog, she was a normalish progressive running in a red state and winning twice. In neighboring Missouri, last year Kander got 46% of the vote while talking about how black lives matter. Kansas is a little less black, but they're otherwise pretty demographically similar states I think.

Something that stands out to me in a lot of these Republican town halls are religious people taking their representatives to task for being un-Christian. There's the woman in Tennessee who was talking about the need for the ACA because Christians have a duty to take care of the sick. There was several appeals to social gospel stuff in Cotton's town hall, including the antiwar guy. I think there's something there, and if the Kansas Democrats could make a real earnest appeal to the social gospel I think that could be big. My grandparents are from Kansas, and they're staunch advocates for equality and justice in a way that's rooted in their Catholicism.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll make a fluke pickup there because of backlash to Brownback and then lose it, but I think there might be a chance to expand the map there. It certainly couldn't hurt if we're looking to do the 50 state strategy.
Something to consider with Kansas is there's an almost formal split between the business GOP and the wacky teabaggers. A moderate Dem governor in Kansas would be able to get a lot done.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
And the current DNC lost to the pussy grabber potential Russian plant no problem, so maybe some bloodletting is needed.

Wait what are you saying exactly?

I believe the following things:

1. The left believes widely in the damaging influence of religion on politics and political freedoms when the two are not separated.
2. Maher in particular believes this, which is borne out by his movie Religulous.
3. I can find hundreds of posts on the board complaining about white evangelical Christians (which I agree with)
4. Maher makes those complaints constantly (that Christians are hypocritical, that their views on women and gays are incompatible with democracy). He says that religion is full of "bad ideas" (specifically, that's his phrase)
5. Maher largely makes the same argument about Muslims.

There is nuance here, for sure. Muslims are an oppressed minority in the country, Christians are not. Most commentators (when attacking the religion) focus on how Muslims are foreign and more likely to be terrorists (hence the "radical Islamic terrorism"). All of this is unfair.

Anyway, I don't want to conflate this with his issues on minorities / women / LGBT. I just want to focus very narrowly on the religion stuff. If it would be beneficial for me to go find completely intolerant and ridiculous posts about Christians on GAF I can do that.

edit: Then, finally, I said I think most Americans believe this about Muslims but don't apply that to Christians. It's a selective Islamophobia for sure. That explains things like 50/50 support for the Muslim ban and the pathetic support for Palestine in this country despite Israel being full of obvious war criminals.

I'm not espousing this view, nor am I "just asking questions," but I feel this is the way Maher views it.
 

Tbh, I'm not sure I believe that Harrison and Brown have that many votes, or that Mayor Pete has that few. I'm definitely in the "Buttigieg would be wasted as DNC chair" camp, so I'm not too broken up about it, but I just don't believe that 27 DNC members looked at the South Carolina party's performance and went "yes, this is what we need on a national level."

I believe the following things:

1. The left believes widely in the damaging influence of religion on politics and political freedoms when the two are not separated.
2. Maher in particular believes this, which is borne out by his movie Religulous.
3. I can find hundreds of posts on the board complaining about white evangelical Christians (which I agree with)
4. Maher makes those complaints constantly (that Christians are hypocritical, that their views on women and gays are incompatible with democracy). He says that religion is full of "bad ideas" (specifically, that's his phrase)
5. Maher largely makes the same argument about Muslims.

There is nuance here, for sure. Muslims are an oppressed minority in the country, Christians are not. Most commentators (when attacking the religion) focus on how Muslims are foreign and more likely to be terrorists (hence the "radical Islamic terrorism"). All of this is unfair.

Anyway, I don't want to conflate this with his issues on minorities / women / LGBT. I just want to focus very narrowly on the religion stuff. If it would be beneficial for me to go find completely intolerant and ridiculous posts about Christians on GAF I can do that.

The problem, as I see it, is that you're conflating two very different flavors of opposition. Most liberals I know who are anti-Christianity or anit-religion in general are still believers in religious pluralism, especially if they practice or practiced the faith; they don't want to see its practice restricted, just kept away from official government business. Anti-islam advocates, however, tend to be very one-issue secularists in a way that's kind of suspicious to me. They don't just want to not see Islam take control of the government (reasonable) they want to see public practice of it restricted as well.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I'm not conflating it, I agree with you. I think Maher is the first and not the second. Or maybe more specifically that if it is the second, it's the second applied to all religions. He'd probably ban it if he could. It being religion.

As someone who watches his show regularly, I find it really tiresome when he brings up religion because it's always the same song and dance. But then he'll switch to vaccines or GMOs or something and it only gets worse. Please no more piers morgan.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Honestly amidst all the "we should talk about Kansas more" talk I sort of wonder if there's anything long-term we could do there beyond just trying to pick up the governor's mansion. It's not insignificant that in a wave year we picked up seats in the state legislature, right? It's still not pre-2010 levels but I don't think picking up 10% of the state house in a year otherwise marked by losses for the state party is something to ignore.

There's an argument that it's too socially conservative a state to become purple long-term but it did elect Sebelius twice, and it's not like she was a JBE-type blue dog, she was a normalish progressive running in a red state and winning twice. In neighboring Missouri, last year Kander got 46% of the vote while talking about how black lives matter. Kansas is a little less black, but they're otherwise pretty demographically similar states I think.

Something that stands out to me in a lot of these Republican town halls are religious people taking their representatives to task for being un-Christian. There's the woman in Tennessee who was talking about the need for the ACA because Christians have a duty to take care of the sick. There was several appeals to social gospel stuff in Cotton's town hall, including the antiwar guy. I think there's something there, and if the Kansas Democrats could make a real earnest appeal to the social gospel I think that could be big. My grandparents are from Kansas, and they're staunch advocates for equality and justice in a way that's rooted in their Catholicism.

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll make a fluke pickup there because of backlash to Brownback and then lose it, but I think there might be a chance to expand the map there. It certainly couldn't hurt if we're looking to do the 50 state strategy.

Yes! I discussed something similar a few weeks ago. Make commercials utilizing Jesus' own words and teachings on one side of the screen contrasted against actual GOP votes/bills on the other. Show people that the Democratic platform is actually more in line with Christianity than the Republicans.
 
I seriously hope Keith Ellison wins the DNC Chair race.

Too much importance has been put into this position thanks to DWS being utter shit and biased and the leaks.

The best way to make sure Bernie Busters fold into the Dem party is making Ellison chair.
 
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