BoboBrazil
Member
Diamond Joe was going door to door for this one.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Diamond Joe was going door to door for this one.
Poodlestrike
Banned
BreezyLimbo
Banned
are we flipping the state or retaining?
Finale Fireworker
Member
I heard that on PSA. I really love Joe Biden. There are two politicians I am really enamored with, they are Biden and Jason Kander. I really hope they are successful in whatever they do next.
I'm taking an interest in these special elections (I donate almost every day to Jon Osoff in GA), but I admit I haven't been following Delaware very closely.
But out military LOVES Trump!!
BreezyLimbo
Banned
The best thing that can happen right now is trump pissing off the military. Then the republicans will have to decide whether they're the gun toting military loving type, or the trump type.
There will be schaudenfraude.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Not after people start seeing their immediate family deported for jaywalking, they won't.
Finale Fireworker
Member
More likely there will be increasingly intense cognitive dissonance that will manifest in proportionately irrational attacks against "libtard snowflake" scapegoats for trying to undermine Trump's authority with fake news and lefty spin tactics.
I am not confident anything will get between Trump's voters and their beloved leader. They have so much blind faith.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I'm at least somewhat skeptical of the idea that the entire New Deal coalition fell apart because of the Civil Rights Act. People treat its white members as a monolith, but they really aren't. Until very recently, the Great Lakes states with the labor vote were among the most Democratic in the country, including after the Civil Rights Act got passed. If we look by presidential elections:
1968: It's not like Wallace didn't get any votes outside of the South but Humphrey held on pretty well considering he was the nominee no one voted for or wanted and carried Minnesota, Michigan, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania and was very close in both Ohio and Wisconsin. RFK also ran on a "black-blue" coalition of black voters and blue collar workers that helped him speed to victory before he got shot, and after his primary victory in Indiana it was sung The blacks in Gary love him, the Poles all fill his hall; there are no ethnic problems on the Ruthless Cannonball. Notably, unlike McCarthy, he was much less interested in courting the professionals who would later become a key constituent of the party. Obviously he got shot so he couldn't really put this coalition to test in the general election but it was pretty successful in the primary.
1972: McGovern failed hard but he ran a terrible campaign and didn't have a real base of support other than antiwar college students. Somewhat amusingly, he actually got less votes in the primary than Humphrey but got way more delegates, I'm not sure how that all went down. Where's benji when we need him?
1976: Carter rode in on the success of getting the whole South back for the last time but he also won Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The Rust Belt/labor vote looks mostly the same as '68, just substitute Michigan for Ohio and Wisconsin.
1980: Electoral map is kind of funky here because of the spoiler effect from Anderson. Even though Carter was super unpopular and got primaried Reagan only got 51% of the vote and was polling basically evenly with Carter until Anderson stole a huge vote share last minute. Even then, of the few states Carter won, included in them were Minnesota and West Virginia, and other labor-states were close, Wisconsin was lost by ~4.5 points when Anderson took over seven percent of the vote, Michigan was lost by ~6.5 points when Anderson took ~7 points, etc. Compared to the close Southern states, Anderson only gets like one point while Reagan and Carter are neck-and-neck.
1984: okay this is a blowout but Reagan won by 19 points lol, it's not like it's just the labor vote that had issues here
1988: Bush runs super racist campaign about how Dukakis (who is a block of wood) will lets black men out of prison to rape and murder your wives, Dukakis wins Minnesota, Iowa, West Virginia, and Wisconsin and comes very close in Pennsylvania.
1992: Clinton wins by large popular vote margin and wins all the old labor vote states with much bigger margins than his popular vote margins. He also wins back some, but not all of the south, showing how disconnected it had become from the old Democratic coalition since Carter activated it (and Carter didn't make "I executed black men" an important part of his campaign)
1996: see above
2000: Gore, like Carter in '80, faces a left challenger than eats a substantial (though smaller, admittedly) portion of the left vote and still wins basically all of the labor states except for West Virginia and Ohio. This is where we actually start to see the hold on labor really slipping relative to where Democrats are strong, Wisconsin and Oregon are about the same level of Democratic whereas before Wisconsin was substantially moreso than the popular vote, for instance.
2004: Basically the same deal, Kerry loses Iowa but otherwise does about the same as Gore in the rest of the labor vote states. He underperforms Gore in most of them but he did that nationwide.
2008-20012: Obama wins basically all of the old labor vote except for West Virginia and even squeezes a surprise win in Indiana, except for 2012 Ohio he does this with strong margins that outperform his popular vote margin.
The northern blue collar workers of the New Deal have been more fickle than black voters but it's not like they just up and abandoned the party after 1964 and only slowly drifted away after the Democrats explicitly began to target professionals in their place.
Also cool news on the DE special election, glad we could hold onto that.
1968: It's not like Wallace didn't get any votes outside of the South but Humphrey held on pretty well considering he was the nominee no one voted for or wanted and carried Minnesota, Michigan, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania and was very close in both Ohio and Wisconsin. RFK also ran on a "black-blue" coalition of black voters and blue collar workers that helped him speed to victory before he got shot, and after his primary victory in Indiana it was sung The blacks in Gary love him, the Poles all fill his hall; there are no ethnic problems on the Ruthless Cannonball. Notably, unlike McCarthy, he was much less interested in courting the professionals who would later become a key constituent of the party. Obviously he got shot so he couldn't really put this coalition to test in the general election but it was pretty successful in the primary.
1972: McGovern failed hard but he ran a terrible campaign and didn't have a real base of support other than antiwar college students. Somewhat amusingly, he actually got less votes in the primary than Humphrey but got way more delegates, I'm not sure how that all went down. Where's benji when we need him?
1976: Carter rode in on the success of getting the whole South back for the last time but he also won Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The Rust Belt/labor vote looks mostly the same as '68, just substitute Michigan for Ohio and Wisconsin.
1980: Electoral map is kind of funky here because of the spoiler effect from Anderson. Even though Carter was super unpopular and got primaried Reagan only got 51% of the vote and was polling basically evenly with Carter until Anderson stole a huge vote share last minute. Even then, of the few states Carter won, included in them were Minnesota and West Virginia, and other labor-states were close, Wisconsin was lost by ~4.5 points when Anderson took over seven percent of the vote, Michigan was lost by ~6.5 points when Anderson took ~7 points, etc. Compared to the close Southern states, Anderson only gets like one point while Reagan and Carter are neck-and-neck.
1984: okay this is a blowout but Reagan won by 19 points lol, it's not like it's just the labor vote that had issues here
1988: Bush runs super racist campaign about how Dukakis (who is a block of wood) will lets black men out of prison to rape and murder your wives, Dukakis wins Minnesota, Iowa, West Virginia, and Wisconsin and comes very close in Pennsylvania.
1992: Clinton wins by large popular vote margin and wins all the old labor vote states with much bigger margins than his popular vote margins. He also wins back some, but not all of the south, showing how disconnected it had become from the old Democratic coalition since Carter activated it (and Carter didn't make "I executed black men" an important part of his campaign)
1996: see above
2000: Gore, like Carter in '80, faces a left challenger than eats a substantial (though smaller, admittedly) portion of the left vote and still wins basically all of the labor states except for West Virginia and Ohio. This is where we actually start to see the hold on labor really slipping relative to where Democrats are strong, Wisconsin and Oregon are about the same level of Democratic whereas before Wisconsin was substantially moreso than the popular vote, for instance.
2004: Basically the same deal, Kerry loses Iowa but otherwise does about the same as Gore in the rest of the labor vote states. He underperforms Gore in most of them but he did that nationwide.
2008-20012: Obama wins basically all of the old labor vote except for West Virginia and even squeezes a surprise win in Indiana, except for 2012 Ohio he does this with strong margins that outperform his popular vote margin.
The northern blue collar workers of the New Deal have been more fickle than black voters but it's not like they just up and abandoned the party after 1964 and only slowly drifted away after the Democrats explicitly began to target professionals in their place.
Also cool news on the DE special election, glad we could hold onto that.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Delaware race has me wondering, has any diet Trump won an election? Seemingly Trumpism dies with Trump
Finale Fireworker
Member
I think it's just the sitting Governor LePage here in Maine. We spend a lot of time wishing he would die on the toilet. No luck so far. LePage predates Trump though, so when he is replaced, it will be a rejection of his own legacy as opposed to Trump's.
Roland_Gunner
Member
I was reading about the election and saw that Marino lost in 2014 by only two points. He's a strong candidate so this is a good win.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/delaware-special-election-trump_us_58a631e8e4b037d17d2646b9
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
They actually won it by bigger margins than Hillary won the district last year, so that's something!
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I am real fucking sick of the implication, though, that if we're not on board with just running the Democrats as a full on dem socialist european style party its because we don't want it bad enough
I don't know if it was you who posted this but I copied and saved this from PoliGAF a few months ago:
Actually it was Crocodile, who has been banned for some reason...
Hmmm...yes, I wonder why...
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/835657943873949697
Meghan, Greta and now Gretchen?
MSNBC what is going on over there?
Meghan, Greta and now Gretchen?
MSNBC what is going on over there?
Did I miss a post or something?
soul creator
Member
By this logic, shouldn't we have all abandoned the ACA as well? Over the past 6 years, it often polled terribly, was partially responsible for lots of 2010 Democratic losses, and even that parts that polled well (no pre-existing conditions, children stay on until 26, medicaid expansion) should apparently be compromised away because "there's a huge ol asterisk next to that question"? Were you even more distrustful of those?
All those folks back in 2010 did the "rational" thing and ran away from the ACA, because after all, you gotta appeal to the "moderates" right?
I guess I don't see why "lock in the private insurance system, make backroom deals with insurance companies, and steadily tweak a bunch of things until maybe one day we turn into Switzerland. Maybe." is considered a sober and rational political message that will rally people, but "hey you know that Medicare program that's pretty popular? Well, we should expand that to everyone" is some loony leftist message that only privileged white liberals in college would be into (to paraphrase a lot of the criticisms)
Thanks! I still think this is one of the truest statements I've seen on GAF and I've been here in its different forms since 1999. Glad to know who said it.
JesseEwiak
Member
You win elections to pass policies, even if it'll hurt you. Also, yes, the ACA does appeal to moderates. It's why the GOP is falling apart trying to repeal it because along with constiuents, interest groups like hospitals and insurance companies are saying, 'we'll be fucked if you just repeal this.'
Because part of that Medicare expansion is, "middle class people will have to pay higher taxes and some of those taxes will go to people they don't like (ie. brown people)."
As was posted above, all of American politics descends from race. Hell, all of politics descends from race. Look at all the good European social democrats that are now voting for far right xenophobic parties because some brown people showed up. Part of the reason why the European welfare state could be built was bluntly, they were building from the ashes of WWII.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
They see the tide as turning more conservative
so they're simply future proofing. whether it'll last we'll see
Nah, I agree with your post. I was just trying to be snarky at how Croc was treated.
RastaMentality
Banned
sick of all these blonde conservative white women invading the rest of news media. while they cancel more woc shows. Wish i could say i'm shocked.
Mr.Shrugglesã
Banned
Twitter Thread Summary:
Kuwait Embassy moved event from 4 Seasons to Trump Hotel, paying around 60K. Trump stopping by Hotel coincidentally. Press Pool not being allowed into hotel.
https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/835664800663408641
Kuwait Embassy moved event from 4 Seasons to Trump Hotel, paying around 60K. Trump stopping by Hotel coincidentally. Press Pool not being allowed into hotel.
https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/835664800663408641
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Did we just live through the same six years? Half of the country went frothing with rage over those basic improvements only to freak out when they realized taking the good stuff away from the "moochers" meant they would lose out also. I'm not saying we need to compromise away on universal healthcare, I'm cautioning people against thinking that its a surefire campaign winner
Poodlestrike
Banned
Tbh, I think a lot of it just has to do with them wanting to poach some of Fox's more popular talent that got shook loose after the Ailes fiasco. It's probably not a coincidence that they're all women.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Hrm, that's the other aspect I forgot.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Calling strawman arguments paraphrasing is an interesting twist I guess. Most Dems, including more moderate ones, support the public option. The problem is that there weren't 60 votes for it in the senate in 2009 and eliminating the filibuster wasn't an option. It sucks but that's our version of democracy. Most of the arguments you're trying to hand wave away are that the ACA was still worth doing without it. We're seeing the reason why working with insurance companies make sense right now. They're throwing up huge roadblocks to the GOP rolling back Obamacare instead of working with the Republicans.
Turnout seems to match (or might surpass depending on how many votes are in the final precinct) 2014's turnout, where the Democratic incumbent only won by 3% against the same guy tonight. >34% turnout is pretty great for a special election and going from a 3% win with an incumbent to an 18% win in an open seat against the same challenger is pretty impressive. I'd say people are energized.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Finale Fireworker
Member
Before the election, I used to get really defensive when Twitter personalities and wannabe pundits I otherwise liked would knock and slander identity politics. They took particular issue with the popularity of Hamilton, a show I also really loved. They said black and Hispanic people in a play doesn't matter. It isn't politics. Anybody who thinks so is an idiot. Anybody who is happy that Hamilton exists and thinks its progressive is a moron. Blah blah blah.
I'd get so mad and try so hard to understand what they were actually trying to say and I constantly came up short. What I only recently finally understood is that they hate identity politics because it takes the place of class solidarity. They believe that there is nothing more unifying than quality of life. If you are suffering to make ends meet and working seven days a week just to be poor, or if your kids aren't getting a good education, or if you can't afford healthcare, these are things you have in common with other people regardless of their race, sex, or citizenship status. These are the things that make you alike. When we instead champion race or gender, we trigger resistance and backlash from other demographics.
This should not be the case, and part of identity politics is fighting for this to NOT be the case, but the reality is that it is. The reality is that the white working class doesn't feel solidarity with the black working class or the immigrant working class, they feel opposed to them. They feel like they are competing with them. And when you champion the welfare of PoCs, sensitive white people think you're consorting with the enemy. And to a lesser extent, vice versa.
Campaigning on race, or promoting race representation as the solution, forces people to acknowledge their differences instead of their similarities. I have lately come to really appreciate the sentiment of focusing on the working class over divisions within it. If you don't have healthcare or are being taxed too much or are being paid too little, populist messages geared towards the working class should resonate with you equally regardless if you're brown or white.
Then you have sensitive white people and disenfranchised immigrants rallying behind the same causes. Then you help bridge the gap. Then you are in a better position to talk about race. This has been especially interesting to me as somebody who has become estranged from almost their entire family. My mother and father, Trump voters, and I have not spoken since Christmas. I wonder it conversations geared towards common goals instead of their obvious racism might help me someday face them again.
Don't mistake this as some kind of ideology or an explanation of something I personally believe. It's just something I've been thinking about a lot since I realized where left-driven anti-idpol sentiment was coming from. I think there's something to it, but as somebody who is really into media, I also believe stuff like Hamilton matters too. I don't like the idea of suddenly not talking about race. But I think there might be a better angle we can take regarding the things working class voters of all demographics share.
JesseEwiak
Member
I'll be blunt - what if the only way to win those mythical working class voters is to throw non-white people under the bus? Will it be OK to care about the needs of minorities and women over the WWC then?
There are no common goals with people who want socialism, but only for white people. Because that's what they want. No matter how much you talk about "universal" policies, 90% of Trump voters will still say no because brown people get a piece as well.
I should say this is a sentiment proven time and again in American history, most recently in this last election. Literally everything Trump said, all of his populist policies, were couched in the most blatant racism we've seen since the Civil Rights Era. The blacks ruined the cities, the Mexicans took your jobs, the Muslims made your kids not safe. These are the points Trump ran on.
Honestly, part of me is a bit happy that literally everything had to fall in his favor for him to squeak out the tiny win he managed to get. I mean, it took the Russians and the FBI (among others) putting their fingers on the scale to get Trump his narrow win. It means not a whole lot needs to be changed going forward.
Couldn't have said it better than myself.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
"I'm not authorized to view these tweets."
lol
lol
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The presidency I'm not worried about. But I am deeply deeply worried about our ability to control the senate, and without the senate the whole thing falls apart. There's no getting around the 2 votes given to every goddamn red state
Tranqueris
Banned
So what the hell was Trump mad about that cause him to whine about rallies today? I feel like that's the thing that's people seem to miss when they bring up that Bernie tweet.
Finale Fireworker
Member
This is how I feel too, in almost exact measure.
Knowing and previously being close to people like my mother and father, I have no hope in converting them into decent non-racist human beings. This is the kind of thing that's rooted in upbringing. It comes from lifelong mental construction. If it is ever going to change, change will come from within. No amount of conversation geared towards changing their minds or helping them see peace is ever going to make a difference.
So if people like my parents, and many Trump fans, are a lost cause... where does that leave us?
I think back to before the election when I didn't know which ones of my friends or coworkers were racists. I didn't know which ones were misogynists. I didn't know which ones valued the safety of their guns over the safety of their fellow American. These things were below the surface and we were able to get along. We were able to coexist. I would never be close to them, or deepen my relationship with them, but we could at least function together on a basic social level.
Some days I think that that's the best we can hope for. Because you can't make a fifty year old man not a racist. But you can raise a new generation of Americans not to be. Sometimes I think if we can at least get to a point where our politics is rallied around common ground, then we can promote a culture that is a standard for progressive and liberal ideals. If we can normalize equality and liberal ideology in our culture, it will manifest in the burgeoning generation of politics.
That's why I think stuff like Star Wars having black or female leads is important too. That's the culture we want to promote and standardize, even if we have to talk about politics in regards to the issues instead of the voters.
I'm sort of rambling, but I need somewhere to talk about these ideas so that I can property digest them. I spend a lot of time in the real world not talking to anybody about this at all because the climate is so incredibly volatile. Talking about it here, even with apprehension, is important for me to find truth.
We could potentially get the House back in a wave, but the Senate will be rough. You're absolutely right about that. In terms of the Senate, I'm not sure there is an answer. If Trump screws up hard enough and the DNC can position well placed candidates to take advantage, there's a shot.
That's not even considering local government, which is it's own shitshow. The more local a seat the more influence money and name recognition will have, but good luck getting enough money to flip more than a few states.
I agree with the sentiment I think you're making. We can teach our kids to be better than we are and we can increase representation to try and fight racist and misogynistic ideas.
Unfortunately, it's a game of inches. Some times you can grab a foot, but most times you'll just be crawling along on your belly trying not to get swept back.
Trump pretty much got lucky in this election his opponent was someone that not a lot of people liked.He may lose the next election by a landslide if he is unlucky if the democrats pick a great nominee.
The GOP won't care as long as the democrats are getting results like the delaware special election in lean blue or super blue states.
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