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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
whyamihere said:
Assuming Trump's favorables get worse after his honeymoon is over, I would bet that McCaskill loses by a hair, Brown, Baldwin, and Tester win by a hair, Casey wins by a decent amount, and Heitkamp and Donnelly lose by a decent amount.
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Given Kirk could win in fucking Illinois I think McCaskill and Dinnelly have a decent shot of making it through if Trump's favourables stay bad. I wonder if Kander had any effect on the state or if he really is a flash in the pan.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
btw, of the potentially vulnerable Dem Senators up in 2018, here are their favorables from a 2016 Morning Consult poll:

https://morningconsult.com/senate-approval-bernie-rubio-cruz/

Angus King: 74/14
Joe Manchin: 57/30
Tim Kaine: 53/24
Heidi Heitkamp: 50/35
Sherrod Brown: 50/27
Joe Donnelly: 48/28
Debbie Stabenow: 48/34
Claire McCaskill: 48/38
Jon Tester: 48/40
Bob Casey: 47/27
Tammy Baldwin: 43/37

Dean Heller: 48/22
Jeff Flake: 42/35

Man, Baldwin. Yeesh.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
whyamihere said:
btw, of the potentially vulnerable Dem Senators up in 2018, here are their favorables from a 2016 Morning Consult poll:

https://morningconsult.com/senate-approval-bernie-rubio-cruz/

Angus King: 74/14
Joe Manchin: 57/30
Tim Kaine: 53/24
Heidi Heitkamp: 50/35
Sherrod Brown: 50/27
Joe Donnelly: 48/28
Debbie Stabenow: 48/34
Claire McCaskill: 48/38
Jon Tester: 48/40
Bob Casey: 47/27
Tammy Baldwin: 43/37

Dean Heller: 48/22
Jeff Flake: 42/35

Man, Baldwin. Yeesh.
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I'm really not sure why her favorables are so low. It seems really odd.

Manchin with that +27 approval in THE Trump state, lol.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I'm really not sure why her favorables are so low. It seems really odd.

Manchin with that +27 approval in THE Trump state, lol.
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It was a really dirty race in 12, and it's not just Morning Consult. This has shown up in other polls too:

From August 2015:

@MULawPoll
Sen. Tammy Baldwin: 36% favorable rating, 40% unfavorable, 24% no opinion. In April, it was 39% fav, 38% unfav, 23% no opinion. #mulawpoll
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From November 2016:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin receives a 38 percent favorable rating and a 32 percent unfavorable rating, with 30 percent saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t have an opinion. When last measured in June of this year, 37 percent were favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 31 percent lacked an opinion.
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T

TestOfTide

Banned
whyamihere said:
btw, of the potentially vulnerable Dem Senators up in 2018, here are their favorables from a 2016 Morning Consult poll:

https://morningconsult.com/senate-approval-bernie-rubio-cruz/

Angus King: 74/14
Joe Manchin: 57/30
Tim Kaine: 53/24
Heidi Heitkamp: 50/35
Sherrod Brown: 50/27
Joe Donnelly: 48/28
Debbie Stabenow: 48/34
Claire McCaskill: 48/38
Jon Tester: 48/40
Bob Casey: 47/27
Tammy Baldwin: 43/37

Dean Heller: 48/22
Jeff Flake: 42/35

Man, Baldwin. Yeesh.
Click to expand...

I thought Angus King is an independent?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
@costareports
The big behind-the-scenes story on Capitol Hill today, the one that many House Rs are buzzing about? Breitbart's Julia Hahn going to the WH.
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@costareports
Hahn a relentless Ryan critic. Trailed him in J'ville. Now she's at Bannon's side. Ryan allies and some Rs tell me Bannon is being brazen...
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Ryan's comms guy:

@BrendanBuck
@costareports please just stop. no one is buzzing.
Click to expand...
 
H

Hellwarden

Member
C243EZGW8AUL4XU.jpg
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Yes, that's someone holding a human spine close to Rubio.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
whyamihere said:
He caucuses with Democrats and is basically a Democrat.
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I know that he VOTES like a Democrat, but my point is that he's more like a less shitty version of Joe Lieberman. As in he doesn't have to worry about reelection because many conservatives are willing to vote for him if only for the fact that technically he isn't a democrat.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
kirblar said:
And the northeast being the whitest place in the country.
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It also currently has 9 Democratic senators (of twelve possible) and unanimously voted for Democratic tickets in all but one election since 1992 so I'm not sure how being a Democrat is exactly electoral cancer.

But sure, any criticism of the Democratic party is actually just a call for white nationalism.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
kirblar said:
"Independent" in the NE seems to mean "liberal scared of voters who associate Democrat with nonwhite people."
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I'm neither ready to agree nor disagree, but looking at the two US Senator examples:

- Bernie is Independent because he is distinctly different from the Democrats on issues of Trade and taxes. He perfectly matches the weirdness of Vermont.

- Maine has a history of being pro-third-party, in fact their willingness to take third parties so seriously is the whole reason that LePage won two terms (The non-LePage vote was split between the Democrat and the Independent).
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
That thread about white women voters is not helpful at all.

Like it's not some big MYSTERY as to what happened: Uneducated Whites strongly went for Trump regardless of gender.

Why the fuck would you focus on white women when Hillary was literally the first Democrat in decades to actually win among College Educated White Women?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
jesus FUCKING christ

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/donald-trump-fraud-claims-234083

In his first meeting with congressional leaders of both parties since taking office, President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated a debunked claim that he only lost the national popular vote because of widespread voter fraud.

Multiple sources described the exchange as part of a generally light-hearted meet-and-greet between Trump and the lawmakers at the White House. It’s unclear if any of the leaders responded to Trump.


Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) confirmed that Trump made the voter fraud claim, but added, "I didn't pay a lot of attention to it. I was ready to move onto some policy issues. I didn't anticipate that discussion."

It's further evidence of Trump’s fixation with his narrow victory, in which he captured an Electoral College handily despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes. Nearly three weeks after his Election Day victory, as late California returns drove up Clinton’s popular vote margin, Trump tweeted incorrectly about the size of his victory.

“In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally,” he wrote.

He’s provided no evidence to back up that claim, and multiple fact checks and investigations have called the assertion false.
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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Okay, so Jong-un is fucking hyped up right now and is going to test NK's first ICBM in the next month and put out a trolling statement calling Trump pathetic and weak when they launch the ICBM?

How does Trump respond and what is the probability that Seoul is wiped from the map afterward?
 
K

kirblar

Member
Kusagari said:
I'm pretty sure that has nothing to do with why Bernie has been an Independent his entire career.
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It's not an accident that a socialist gets supported in a state with nearly no non-white people.

Again, the reason we don't have class solidarity is simple: white people won't work with nonwhite ones.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Okay, so Jong-un is fucking hyped up right now and is going to test NK's first ICMB in the next month and put out a trolling statement calling Trump pathetic and weak when they launch the ICMB?

How does Trump respond and what is the probability that Seoul is wiped from the map afterward?
Click to expand...

I think the chain of events is actually:

Terrorist event in US > Trump nukes Iraq > Global rules around nuclear use change > NK nukes Seoul > Russia nukes the Caucasus region > China nukes Taiwan > India and Pakistan nuke each other.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I'm pretty sure you could run as a Socialist in the Deep South and do pretty well as long as you were insanely racist.

I think the chain of events is actually:

Terrorist event in US > Trump nukes Iraq > Global rules around nuclear use change > NK nukes Seoul > Russia nukes the Caucasus region > China nukes Taiwan > India and Pakistan nuke each other.
Click to expand...

I'm putting the probability of a terror attack within the next month at <20%. They aren't very common, this isn't Turkey or Pakistan.

Meanwhile, NK is testing a pseudo ICBM within the next month.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
I saw the dress KellyAnne Conway wore to the inauguration, and I am visually insulted by it. Like, I know gays hate republicans, but you couldn't find a log cabin republican to help you dress, gurl?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
kirblar said:
I'd argue that Trump did exactly that. Protectionist/populist econ + racism works far better than the former alone.
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Well, I mean, he ran with Mao's language, but while promising to destroy all regulations and to give the rich a ton of money and to cut people's health care benefits.

So... That's not running as a socialist, that's running with socialist language.
 
K

kirblar

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Well, I mean, he ran with Mao's language, but while promising to destroy all regulations and to give the rich a ton of money and to cut people's health care benefits.

So... That's not running as a socialist, that's running with socialist language.
Click to expand...
In a campaign, is there really a difference?
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
royalan said:
Ugh...

Could the existence of kompromat be any more fucking obvious?
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Tbh, I've kind of cooled on the kompromat thing. I mean, it could very well exist, but I don't think Putin needs it to control Trump. Listen to the way Trump talks about the man, he's clearly smitten. Putin just needs to feed Trump's ego, assuage his need for "respect," and Trump'll do what he says.
 
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