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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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I sure hope you're right!!
ugaboga232
Member
Maybe the Ben "the brain can't have evolved but yes I have opened a skull and seen the cerebrum and cerebellum next to each other why are you asking?" Carson, Rand Paul, and Tom Price school of medicine is who we should limit access to.
I agree, this will have quite the catastrophic effect on the population.
Hopefully pharmacogenomics can somewhat ease people's burdens and help their doctors more easily prescribe psychotropic drugs that are effective for that individual's body chemistry, but then that still requires expensive tests and actual doctors.
Mental healthcare with a free market paradigm based on arguments assuming that the average consumer is a rational agent with an unobstructed perception immediately fails when it is noted that the consumers of mental healthcare by definition have psychological conditions.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Sorry, you must have missed the memo, we're all freaking out about it passing now.
i think it passes the House but dies in the Senate or in conference. If they miss the 4/15 deadline they lose
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I love free markets, but yes, those issues with mental illness are major.
My mental illness stopped me from getting care for my mental illness.
ugaboga232
Member
Not to veer too much into science, but I wouldn't get too hyped about pharmacogenetics until we better understand what neuropsychiatric diseases are and have better meds. All the gene association and metabolism panels can't help if you don't know how to use that information or have nothing to use it on.
Which we can't do without NIH funding. Nature neuroscience had a good article by the new head of the NIMH a few months back about his ideas of the future. He's an mdphd psychiatrist from Columbia so he is a good spokesperson for issues like this.
Also there's no magic line where you have a mental illness or you don't so the free market never really works if you have to assume people are "rational" because there's no rationality or personal responsibility switch in the brain.
but there is a lot to be hopeful for and maybe people will realize we are all slaves to our various limbic nuclei sooner rather than later
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
stahp
I already had enough of an existential crisis when I was doing computational theory, I don't need science to validate the ideas that initially freaked me out
I know it's foolish, but I'm still holding out that the thing dies in the House. I want Trump & Ryan to enjoy a hearty helping of L with a side of egg-on-face tomorrow.
Though I'd not be the least bit surprised to see them all fall in line.
Also, if that thing about Dems pretending they can make deals with the GOP is true... wew.
Though I'd not be the least bit surprised to see them all fall in line.
Also, if that thing about Dems pretending they can make deals with the GOP is true... wew.
ugaboga232
Member
stahp
I already had enough of an existential crisis when I was doing computational theory, I don't need science to validate the ideas that initially freaked me out
Sorry your tax dollars support me and far harder working and smarter people working on validating this so we can enter the glorious cyberpunk digital drug and mind control future
im only 20% kidding and the future is gonna be really weird but if that's the price to pay to be able to treat neuropsychiatric problems big and small, full steam ahead
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I can't wait for the future where I can yell at people that my crisis after considering the idea that brains are just deterministic finite automata that actually I was right and we are all just soulless machine.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Souls are emergent phenomena
cartoon_soldier
Member
It should pass the House. It still be DOA in the Senate anyway.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't know if I want to give Senate Republicans that benefit of the doubt, even if they're all saying they'll vote against it.
Like intellectually I know you have however many Republicans on record against it, my concern is that they tweak some minor thing and suddenly the votes are there. Killing it in the House eliminates that concern.
whyamihere
Banned
That is Sen. Mike Lee's communications director.
Also, the Senators who are most likely to defect aren't up for re-election in 2020. There's a pretty significant chance the GOP senators look at the 2018 map and say "fuck it, what do we have to lose?"
And Flake is a true Ryan-ite believer. So he'll happily go down with the ship.
shinra-bansho
Member
Oh I meant hold them to not eliminating the filibuster for the SC.
neurosisxeno
Member
It's not foolish. As much as I love a lot of the input around here, there's a reason "Diablosing" is a term. I think a lot of the people in PoliGAF insistent that this will pass since it was announced are basing it off the fact that Republicans never fail to fuck up this country when given the opportunity, and whatever Liberals hope will happen almost never does--at least in recent years. I expect this bill to either get a vote and pass or not get a vote. Republicans gain nothing if they put it to a vote and it fails to pass the House, if anything they look like absolute fools and spend the next few months doing damage control.
Following last nights book of matthew chat with the sequel, buddhachat.
http://www.buddhanet.net/e-learning/depend.htm
Collins probably won't go for it.
Ditto for Cassidy?
Maybe Heller
But yeah I can only see 2 firm no's in the Senate. We need 3.
I don't trust Paul or Cotton
neurosisxeno
Member
Not so much. He was redeemed a bit. It wasn't until the Comey Letter that there really was reason to panic though. I wasn't exactly confident in Hillary even during the primaries but PoliGAF was like 98% "Yassss Queen". It's definitely an echo chamber and since a great majority of people in here got it wrong (it happens) it seems quite... defeatist... around here.
Since then it seems like everyone is under the impression Republicans are suddenly a functional party since they won in 2016. I completely beg to differ since they need the HFC to agree with them or odds are they can't pass anything too sweeping. The HFC is the only people that look at the AHCA and say "it doesn't go far enough". So odds are they aren't getting much done, and definitely nothing that will clear the Senate.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Depends on Ikasson who is out too.
whyamihere
Banned
Collins, Murkowski, and Heller would be all we need tbh. Might as well go after those three.
metalslimer
Member
I don't know why people are pretending like Republicans are good at actually governing and passing hard legislation. I mean it's entirely possible it passes the house, but it's certainly not a sure thing, and even then I doubt anyone is willing to risk a seat for it.
Because they used to be during the Bush years.
neurosisxeno
Member
Almost all of those people are gone. A lot of them lost because of the exact legislation they passed during those years. Republicans are far more reserved now than they used to be. They are find with obstructing, but when it comes to actually taking chances with risky votes it is not going to happen.
they really hit a home run with privatizing social security
Basileus777
Member
They were?
The most important group to get on board any entitlement or health care reform before it starts? The f'n AARP.
On the ground, there was panic well before the Comey letter. I observed panic around the time of Hillary's alt-right speech. And not because of the speech itself, but by how easily Trump was able to change the story leading up to the speech by simply shouting into a mic, "HILLARY CLINTON IS A BIGOT!"
And to be clear, I'm not seeing it as a sign of success or Republicans suddenly being functional if AHCA passes the House tomorrow. They're digging their own graves, that bill is political suicide. But Republicans have a habit of blundering their way into temporary success, and this time it looks like their latest blunder is going to cost millions of people their health insurance.
I'm not putting it past the HFC to do a 180 over a rewrite. But we'll see.
Also, can we dispell the notion that only PoliGAF thought Hillary was going to win? A fair amount of the country did.
Abinash117
Member
Why can't some Republicans govern?
Their ideology makes them so incompetent.
The Freedom Caucus chairman was on Hannity and said that he agrees with the president in principle when it comes to the healthcare, so basically nothing got anywhere that much.
wtfffffffff
whyamihere
Banned
I don't even know what this means.
neurosisxeno
Member
Most of that was just panic until a new poll came out and reaffirmed that she still had a 3, 5, 7, whatever point lead. Her campaign struggled, but it wasn't until the Comey Letter that things were really "Oh shit" because it was the one kind of event that played into everyone's fears--the idea that Clinton may have actually broken the law, and worse that she was as they described her "Crooked Hillary". Were it not for that letter I think she would have won a ~5 point victory and carried PA, WI, MI, and maybe even FL.
Oh the bill is absolutely political suicide. If it ever makes it into law we will see the largest Pro-Democrat wave in a long time, and I expect all but some of the safest seats to flip in both the House and Senate. People who flip flopped around on their support for Trump (Cruz, Rubio) will probably be done, people who wrote the legislation and defended it will be done (Ryan), and I imagine a lot of states that are "sick of dysfunctional government" will probably just oust and incumbents connected to it.
When did I say only PoliGAF thought she was going to win? I voted for her and spent months fighting the good fight where I could. I expected Trump to lose in a bloodbath as cooler heads prevailed and people actually stepped into the voting booths. Clearly I was wrong. But I also faced a lot of hostility around these parts for pointing out that Clinton had very real image problems and that people generally didn't like her. I maintain she was one of the most qualified candidates to ever run, but the general public did not see her that way.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
It would be really good if Trump got so unpopular we picked up freak seats in 2018 like Corker's or Fischer's. Imagine how lopsided the 2024 map would become.
neurosisxeno
Member
I have been saying since he was the front runner in the Primaries, Trump is the worst thing to ever happen to the Republican Party. It's going to get so bad that just having an (R) next to your name is like a badge of shame, if the AHCA and Trump's continual investigations are any indicator. But I won't make any predictions too bold, but I expect at the very least any state that is divided with 1 R and 1 D, will become safely 2 D.
On second thought, that's a poor prediction. I imagine if the AHCA passes and people learn exactly how much it sucks, odds are anyone who voted for it and was R+7 or less, will be in serious trouble.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Most of them are gone and House republican leadership is a joke now. And let's not forget W Bush was at least above water politically during those legislative victories, plus he wasn't stupid.
And none of that stopped them from failing on social security privatization, which riled up old voters and the AARP. Similarly to what's happening now.
aspiegamer
Member
My understanding (which is likely wrong, disclaimer!) was that the EHB thing specifically turns it into something that would require 60 votes in the Senate, meaning it's DOA. Someone please tell me I'm right so I can calm down a little.
1) Receive bill rewritten overnight
2) Suspend rules
3) ???
...
?) Passed to the full house via a technicality of some sort
This sort of procedural bullshit is usually only done on the state level for mild shenanigans and not gigantic legislation.
The bill is being rewritten overnight, so the content isn't known. To get it through in an instant the Republicans essentially have to go nuclear and pretend the Democrats aren't there to wave it across the table.
1) Receive bill rewritten overnight
2) Suspend rules
3) ???
...
?) Passed to the full house via a technicality of some sort
This sort of procedural bullshit is usually only done on the state level for mild shenanigans and not gigantic legislation.
See, I'd love to believe all this... But this is the same thinking that some had when Trump became the Presidential candidate - "Anyone connected with Trump who has an R next to their name will be gone"; "People won't stand for a racist, or anyone connected to a racist"; "People won't stand next to a rapist and someone who admitted sexual assault".
Sure, people dying is different. I have no doubt that the if passed AHCA will resonate with people a lot, because friends and family will be literally dying in front of them. I just don't know if it'll resonate enough for it to swing a lot in 2018. If you can't empathise with sexual assault victims - and the possibility that your wife, mother, sister, daughter could be one of them - why would you empathise with a grieving friend?
If 2016 proved anything, it's that the electorate can be willfully ignorant of both politics and personal morality.
More_Badass
Member
Which is fair enough. And it may be that's the deciding factor - like people don't "feel" economically well-off, even if they objectively are, people will "feel" the effects of the AHCA.
I just have serious doubts.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Think about it this way, there's plenty of North Koreans seeing friends and family die of starvation and yet there's plenty of true believer support for Kim.
I mean, why do you think people voted for Trump? Yes, they supported white supremacy, but presumably not all of them voted specifically BECAUSE of white supremacy. They just all endorsed it.
To the degree that they didn't specifically vote for Trump to get more racism, they must've wanted something.
Because while Trump may be a sexual predator, his baby hands can't possibly reach far enough to grope 24 million Americans. The AHCA will personally affect millions and millions of Americans.
But Democrats can't just let Trump continue to control the narrative and let him pin blame on Mexicans/Muslims/refugees/foreigners/blacks/Jews/Obama/SJWs/colleges/blue state government.
Oh, I don't disagree.
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