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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Lovett is right and this is a critique that the center-left is going to eventually have an answer to. It doesn't at the moment.

https://medium.com/@freddiedeboer/i...adequacy-of-the-democratic-party-b2b6be6c2891


I feel like the critique is forgetting that the reason the far left doesn't have the ability to pull on the center-left is because they don't have the voting bloc to seriously challenge Democrats in primaries. The Tea Party gained its power by wielding that sort of influence on Republicans.

I think it is more than clear that the choice isn't between bad and worse. The choice is between a basic thing and a really bad thing. Positing the situation this way is ceding ground to the right, not vindicating the left. Because then you start by thinking a reasonable, basic consideration is 'bad'.

To expand on this slightly: those further left not being a large enough bloc to exert control of the party is entirely why the Democrats are so mixed in the first place; the Democrats are still very much a coalition party and while that doesn't mean that various interests in the coalition are nessecarily opposed to each other it does mean that they have very different priorities that results in a party that doesn't, say, have a clear loud message on immigration because immigration is only a huge make or break issue for some fraction of the base. This is not how the GOP base is structured whatsoever and it always places us at a disadvantage.

To be clear, I'm not happy with this state of affairs, nor am I defending it as the best way for the party to be, but I do think that this is an issue that is less about incompetance from politicians and more about a very scattered voter base that usually bands together out of survival. Unifying the voters is the most effective way to fix this
 

Ryuuroden

Member
As a first step to open borders we should create a new Anglospheric Union like the EU.

This is marginally more plausible than a North American Union

America's population is just too goddamn big for any sort of non-global supranational structure but I want open borders with Canada dammit

I would love to have open borders so I could work in Toronto. Apparently what companies expect of their construction is like a whole different magnitude in Canada compared to the USA. I could make a killing with the quality workmanship of my company compared to the shit Canadian construction companies currently provide Canadian research companies. I've talked with owners of Canadian laboratory installation companies and they joke about how much easier it is to do jobs in Canada than it is the USA because Canadian companies don't really expect as much quality installs. The workmanship is apparently lackadaisical.
 

Vimes

Member
I feel like this is the first evidence I've ever seen of Trump being aware his actions might have real-world consequences.

Maybe.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I agree with this, we need to brace for a big loss in 2022 should 2018/2020 go well for us.

We need to go balls out with progressive legislation should we be lucky enough to get a Dem trifecta again. If it means we have to nuke the filibuster then oh well. It's a new ballgame.

Something that might insulate us from too heavy of losses would be new maps in 2022 and the Senate map that year actually being decent for Democrats, but we need to get out there with a robust jobs plan, healthcare and college for everyone, and goddammit some way to turn our base out in midterm years.

I also agree with this, and honestly if we honestly committed to this sort of kamikaze strategy it might ultimately be the fastest and most effective way to get some enormous pillars enshrined and hard to undo (just like the ACA is right now). I get more annoyed with people who think that the permanent progressive majority is just around the corner once people realize just how bad the GOP is and flip forever (I was guilty of this, to be sure, although I was focused more on demographic trends that I'm more cynical about now)
 

kirblar

Member
I also agree with this, and honestly if we honestly committed to this sort of kamikaze strategy it might ultimately be the fastest and most effective way to get some enormous pillars enshrined and hard to undo (just like the ACA is right now). I get more annoyed with people who think that the permanent progressive majority is just around the corner once people realize just how bad the GOP is and flip forever (I was guilty of this, to be sure, although I was focused more on demographic trends that I'm more cynical about now)
Yup. Just. Go. Nuts. Don't go crazy, but have as much legislation as possible ready to go on day 1.
 

Ryuuroden

Member
I also agree with this, and honestly if we honestly committed to this sort of kamikaze strategy it might ultimately be the fastest and most effective way to get some enormous pillars enshrined and hard to undo (just like the ACA is right now). I get more annoyed with people who think that the permanent progressive majority is just around the corner once people realize just how bad the GOP is and flip forever (I was guilty of this, to be sure, although I was focused more on demographic trends that I'm more cynical about now)

Well we need to take over all the statehouses we can and eliminate gerrymandering to provide a equal playing field. We do that and at the same time go nuts on a national level and losses in 2022 wont nearly be so bad.
 

Blader

Member
Oh my god...

What if- and I know this is a long shot- but what if he vetoes this bill?

Will never happen, he wants the win. It's not like he reads these things anyway. If McConnell and Priebus put a healthcare bill on his desk and tell him it's nicer, he'll sign it gleefully.
 
Considering Trump's pressure was apparently a driving force for the House vote, Trump not being on board anymore is a pretty decent bump in the road for the bill

Will never happen, he wants the win. It's not like he reads these things anyway. If McConnell and Priebus put a healthcare bill on his desk and tell him it's nicer, he'll sign it gleefully.

Trump doesn't listen to those people, Trump listens to the media.
 

Ernest

Banned
Days to hit a 60% disapproval rating:

Carter: Never
Reagan: Never
H.W. Bush: Never
Clinton: Never
W. Bush: 1,756
Obama: Never
Trump: 144

Trump's the greatest at something...
 

Narroo

Member
I also agree with this, and honestly if we honestly committed to this sort of kamikaze strategy it might ultimately be the fastest and most effective way to get some enormous pillars enshrined and hard to undo (just like the ACA is right now). I get more annoyed with people who think that the permanent progressive majority is just around the corner once people realize just how bad the GOP is and flip forever (I was guilty of this, to be sure, although I was focused more on demographic trends that I'm more cynical about now)
The problem is that insanity on both sides is also a good way to destroying the country. The problem is, how does one defeat a Kamikaze stratagem without killing yourself or those around you?
 
Leigh Ann Caldwell‏Verified account @LACaldwellDC 20m20 minutes ago
More
Confirmed: Two sources tell me that @realDonaldTrump did call the House health care bill "mean" in his lunch with senators today.

SOMEONE FIND THE LEAKERS
 
Is this the same bill where he invited House Representatives over to the White House to celebrate passing the thing through the House?

I get it, though

He knew nothing about that bill. The media knew nothing about that bill. It had no CBO estimate, no hard numbers, just a bunch of stuff that was in it that were hypothetical. The press was bad, but it wasn't a soundbite. He was told it was a good bill, nobody he trusted (the media) was telling him otherwise (at least in the way he understands) and so he partied.

Then the CBO score came out and 20 million without healthcare became a soundbite. It's something Trump understands and listens to. He knows soundbites. He understands them. It's at that point where his mind changed.
 
I get it, though

He knew nothing about that bill. The media knew nothing about that bill. It had no CBO estimate, no hard numbers, just a bunch of stuff that was in it that were hypothetical. The press was bad, but it wasn't a soundbite. He was told it was a good bill, nobody he trusted (the media) was telling him otherwise (at least in the way he understands) and so he partied.

Then the CBO score came out and 20 million without healthcare became a soundbite. It's something Trump understands and listens to. He knows soundbites. He understands them. It's at that point where his mind changed.

Right. He won't veto it, but it's what he gets for not being a part of the process.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It may have honestly killed the bill in the Senate.
Some of these Republicans are looking for any out, and they got one.

Nothing certain obviously, but another variable to consider.
 
Corey Stewart is running as a NeoNazi for governor of Virginia and he has a 50/50 shot of winning the Republican primary tonight.

The GOP is full of delightful people.
 
Smirnoff's new ad campaign:

QPO16vr.jpg
 
Lovett is right and this is a critique that the center-left is going to eventually have an answer to. It doesn't at the moment.

https://medium.com/@freddiedeboer/i...adequacy-of-the-democratic-party-b2b6be6c2891

I strongly disagree with this assessment but I don't have the time to give this a proper response. Let me just say that I question, for instance, that moderation in immigration reform rhetoric has hurt the Democratic coalition instead of helping it. I question that there was more pressure for a "complete socialist takeover of medicine" [sic] than broad tax incentives and a public-private partnership. In fact I question that the Democratic party is anything less than exactly at its centroid given its broad coalition across the United States. The people voted these politicians in to begin with, and they chose them over other candidates. It was natural selection. And I certainly thumb my nose at the suggestion that measured policy proposals are worse than ideological marching themes scant of real details. If the question the left is asking is "why aren't you over here with us" then the answer from the center should be "because we gave it some thought".

This is also in contrast to what was posted here yesterday about immigration. Someone said "the democratic party clearly wants open borders but can't come out and say it". Well which is it: is the democratic establishment full of open border anarchists, or immigrant betraying centrists?

Again, re: "just as bad": I talked to some white pro-union Democrats recently (yes, my Nazi father, but also other people) and they all agreed that both parties were just as bad. When I asked why, it was because both parties will "whore" themselves out to the corporations, and also because both parties won't really do anything about immigration. All of them considered themselves left-leaning (but some preferred the term "common-sense", which I thought was an amusing framing).

The Democratic party is much, much more unified than the Republican party. Talk to actual Republicans about the election last year and nearly all of them will frame it as an option between horrible and bad. Many more Republicans I've spoken to were dissatisfied with both choices than left-leaners I've spoken to. Most people are fine with Hillary Clinton (and the numbers prove me right - she won by 3 million plus votes. That's a huge majority.) Most right-leaners find Donald Trump detestable but are among a coalition of fiscal conservatives and social conservatives and so the choice for them was obvious. I think that's a clear refutation of the Republicans being unified and awful.

Also, the Democratic vision was pretty clear this year. Don't condone hatred and white nationalism. Commit to global stability. Raise taxes on the rich. Make college more affordable for the middle class. Improve on Obamacare. Invest in crumbling infrastructure. Just because Berners didn't like this doesn't mean it's confused, it just means it isn't far enough for them, which is completely different.
 

Blader

Member
Can someone with a better understanding of VA precincts than I determine how well the spread is working in Perriello's favor, or not (which seems to be the case right now), so far? Looks like NoVa and Richmond are going for Northam but I'm not sure what that means for the state broadly.
 

kirblar

Member
Loudoun's literally 50/50 right now, which seems really bad for Pierrello. (I'm still in "I have no idea" mode here cause this is a weird ass election- it's literally VA endorsements vs the world, as Yglesias pointed out.)

I think Pierello needs some sort of edge in NOVA that's not happening because the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area will swing heavily to Northam?
 
Can someone with a better understanding of VA precincts than I determine how well the spread is working in Perriello's favor, or not (which seems to be the case right now), so far? Looks like NoVa and Richmond are going for Northam but I'm not sure what that means for the state broadly.

Loudon is swingy it seems, but the other battle grounds (Fairfax, Richmond), seem strong for Northam.

Loudoun's literally 50/50 right now, which seems really bad for Pierrello. (I'm still in "I have no idea" mode here cause this is a weird ass election- it's literally VA endorsements vs the world, as Yglesias pointed out.)

I think Pierello needs some sort of edge in NOVA that's not happening because the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area will swing heavily to Northam?

Eh, Northam should've done better in Loudon but he's doing better in Fairfax than he needed to. He's (probably) got this.
 
Is this good?

Edit: Wait--isn't Perriello the guy Bernie wanted? If so, LOL.
Podesta Kiss of Death

insert pizzagate joke here
Expected but very disappointing.

I hope that Northam can pull it off. I don't know what happens if Stewart wins. Northam seems like a particularly bad candidate against someone like Stewart.



Also the one that Obamaworld wanted.
eh Hillary beat Trump here so I imagine Northam will do fine. Still disappointing.
 

Kusagari

Member
I think this is doing a good job of showing outside forces don't mean much in a race where the voters are already familiar with the early favorite candidate.
 

Blader

Member
Oh well. I was pulling for Periello but admittedly don't know much about Northam.

My take as a relatively uninformed outsider was that Northam seemed to be running a campaign more inwardly focused on the state while Perriello's seemed like it was more plugged into the national Resistance. Not sure how accurate that perception is but that's certainly what it seemed like to me. And that Periello's major endorsements came from out of state while Northam's consisted of the entire VA Democratic Party seems like it nearly sums up that dynamic.

I don't think it's too early to start talking up McAuliffe 2020
Heh, I read a politico piece about exactly this this morning
 
Why the fear of Stewart? This was a solid Hillary state.

It was a 5 point Hillary state where she failed to cross 50% and was potentially buoyed by a popular, hometown VP.

I don't want to make a prediction without more data, but Northam seems like a uniquely poor fit to run against someone like Stewart.
 
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