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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Insurance for my family costs nearly $1,000 per month through my employer, and it has a $6,000 deductible, which basically means I would end up paying $18,000 per year before my insurance plan kicked in. I would gladly pay more in taxes to get insurance I could actually use.
Macho Madness
Member
It was easily the shittiest article I've seen in a long time and that's saying something
I guess, but I'd like to see this message start getting out there. I'm tired of seeing most media outlets predominantly describe Trump's plan as involving $1 trillion in investment, with maybe a minor caveat about only a small portion coming from the government, and little discussion about what that means about the potential projects. It seems easy to describe, but it's not happening, which worries me.
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
Consideing he was on Hannity last night saying it would be the best speech ever... Yeah. Not surprised. He probably helped write it.
benicillin
Banned
I need some good news/oppo soon because between all the awful op-eds, Trump being Trump and witnessing how quickly and easily alt-right fake news is spread I'm feeling rather down on the state of our democracy.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
John Cornyn is a horrible person, but I'm sure most knew that already. Arguing this morning that all the people losing healthcare under the GOP bill would be great because it would give them "freedom."
RustyNails
Member
How safe is Pete Roskam's seat in Illinois?
You won't know if you like it until you try it.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
Nothing says freedom like choosing to eat or getting that chronic headache checked.
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
don't expect good news this week really. Trumps team is panicking because they are worried about what Trump will show and tell to putin.
I hope the IC and armed forces have fed nothing but disinformation to the president at this moment.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Just in case people are wondering why this is actually pretty big news, remember this reaction when asked about Felix Sater:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=82&v=9N5Kun2sJPA
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Who does Tillerson even think he's fooling? He's a dottering old oil tycoon with every other country in the world, unable to add 2+2, but then lo and behold, he has lightning precision with any tasks related to getting Russia what they want.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Hmmmmmm
IggyChooChoo
Member
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Didn't Mueller just add another specialist in corruption in and money laundering to his team? Hmmm
BoogieWoogie
Banned
There's far too many moving parts for Trump to think none of them would flip. Like legit hundreds of players. Someone's going to make a deal and probably already has.
Oppo can't save us. The problem IS the GOP, bringing down Trump won't stop the above trends.
There isn't any good news at the moment, outside of maybe the senate wavering on HC, but hard to say where that stands.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Also, Donny just got owned super hard:
https://twitter.com/excallingbieber/status/882932713250050049
https://twitter.com/excallingbieber/status/882932713250050049
Greigor The Fellhand
Member
thats a smooth way to avoid a handshake with trump.
you could see the sadness and rage in his face
RustyNails
Member
Lmao, love how he just stares at her stonefaced like a cat.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
The comedic timing of happy face---walks by----angry face....LMAO
BlastProcessing
Member
balladofwindfishes
Member
Doesn't look like the AHCA is doing that good right now. Still don't have the votes, and even if they had them, they aren't even sure if it can pass reconciliation anymore with the changes they made.
Looks like late July, if they even bother. Once August hits, the bill is essentially dead, they'd have little reason to pick it back up in September considering they have to make sure the government doesn't collapse on itself that month.
Looks like late July, if they even bother. Once August hits, the bill is essentially dead, they'd have little reason to pick it back up in September considering they have to make sure the government doesn't collapse on itself that month.
http://stopmebeforeivoteagain.org/stopme/chapter02.html
Your thoughts on this? This is very old, but I still agree 1000%
If you think the American political system has ratcheted "only rightward" over the past ten years (or hell, over the last 100+ years), you are fucking blind.
He did.
Yeah for all the garbage shit that is going on in this country, Obama clearly moved the Overton window to the left during his 8 years. To use videogames as a reference point, the GOP is Gamergate and the rise of games with female/POC/LGBT protags or stories that concern issues more inclined towards them is the rest of the videogame industry. Unfortunately, stuff like the Electoral College AND the Senate AND a stymied House AND Gerrymandering AND Right Wing Media give the GOP (Gamergate) more power than they deserve per their pure numbers.
Also, PBY, did you read that big article about the Democratic Party and their relationship with the WWC? A lot of the ideas that the left-most wing of the Democratic party are pushing the strongest aren't new. But there is a reason they failed in the past (as well as reasons they might succeed now).
EDIT: Ok what is the Ohio house up to? I'm seeing some weird shit on Twitter right now? Other Ohioans want to fill me in?
balladofwindfishes
Member
The Democrats move to the right because the United States is a religious conservative country. Center right is where the majority of the country sits. Why wouldn't a political party that actually wants to win an election not move in the direction the country votes for?
Religion and racism are too embedded in our identity as a country, it has little to do with Democrats and Republicans, other than the latter realized it could exploit these old Puritan/Civil War wounds that never healed. Our country was founded by religious wackos with a persecution complex and hardcore racists. We never got over that.
There isn't some hidden block of ultra left voters that will make everything better if someone just appeals to them. But there's an obvious block of right leaning voters who consistently vote.
We've been slowly sliding more right since the 80s. Obama was one exception in an otherwise slow decline. The combination of Reagan and then 9/11 a little over a decade later messed us up, badly.
Religion and racism are too embedded in our identity as a country, it has little to do with Democrats and Republicans, other than the latter realized it could exploit these old Puritan/Civil War wounds that never healed. Our country was founded by religious wackos with a persecution complex and hardcore racists. We never got over that.
There isn't some hidden block of ultra left voters that will make everything better if someone just appeals to them. But there's an obvious block of right leaning voters who consistently vote.
We've been slowly sliding more right since the 80s. Obama was one exception in an otherwise slow decline. The combination of Reagan and then 9/11 a little over a decade later messed us up, badly.
Red rose twitter has been sharing this study today
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2989040
America has been at war continuously for over 15 years, but few Americans seem to notice. This is because the vast majority of citizens have no direct connection to those soldiers fighting, dying, and returning wounded from combat. Increasingly, a divide is emerging between communities whose young people are dying to defend the country, and those communities whose young people are not. In this paper we empirically explore whether this divide—the casualty gap—contributed to Donald Trump's surprise victory in November 2016. The data analysis presented in this working paper finds that indeed, in the 2016 election Trump was speaking to this forgotten part of America. Even controlling in a statistical model for many other alternative explanations, we find that there is a significant and meaningful relationship between a community's rate of military sacrifice and its support for Trump. Our statistical model suggests that if three states key to Trump's victory – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – had suffered even a modestly lower casualty rate, all three could have flipped from red to blue and sent Hillary Clinton to the White House. There are many implications of our findings, but none as important as what this means for Trump's foreign policy. If Trump wants to win again in 2020, his electoral fate may well rest on the administration's approach to the human costs of war. Trump should remain highly sensitive to American combat casualties, lest he become yet another politician who overlooks the invisible inequality of military sacrifice. More broadly, the findings suggest that politicians from both parties would do well to more directly recognize and address the needs of those communities whose young women and men are making the ultimate sacrifice for the country.
Worth consideration.
Edit- I've not read that crocodile. Link/name?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2989040
America has been at war continuously for over 15 years, but few Americans seem to notice. This is because the vast majority of citizens have no direct connection to those soldiers fighting, dying, and returning wounded from combat. Increasingly, a divide is emerging between communities whose young people are dying to defend the country, and those communities whose young people are not. In this paper we empirically explore whether this divide—the casualty gap—contributed to Donald Trump's surprise victory in November 2016. The data analysis presented in this working paper finds that indeed, in the 2016 election Trump was speaking to this forgotten part of America. Even controlling in a statistical model for many other alternative explanations, we find that there is a significant and meaningful relationship between a community's rate of military sacrifice and its support for Trump. Our statistical model suggests that if three states key to Trump's victory – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – had suffered even a modestly lower casualty rate, all three could have flipped from red to blue and sent Hillary Clinton to the White House. There are many implications of our findings, but none as important as what this means for Trump's foreign policy. If Trump wants to win again in 2020, his electoral fate may well rest on the administration's approach to the human costs of war. Trump should remain highly sensitive to American combat casualties, lest he become yet another politician who overlooks the invisible inequality of military sacrifice. More broadly, the findings suggest that politicians from both parties would do well to more directly recognize and address the needs of those communities whose young women and men are making the ultimate sacrifice for the country.
Worth consideration.
Edit- I've not read that crocodile. Link/name?
RustyNails
Member
Weren't conservatives all lining up behind Cruz amendment? Have we heard anything from moderate darlings?
This is the article that Croc is mentioning- https://agenda-blog.com/2017/07/03/...beralism-and-the-white-working-class/#more-42
And what the fuck is Red Rose Twitter? That paper reads as "I'm going to ignore every obvious sign that Trump was directly appealing to racism and instead provide an explanation that falls in line with my policy preferences"
Rural areas have higher rates of military service than urban ones. Therefore, they have higher rates of military casualties. This is literally the "correlation, not causation" warning incarnate.
And what the fuck is Red Rose Twitter? That paper reads as "I'm going to ignore every obvious sign that Trump was directly appealing to racism and instead provide an explanation that falls in line with my policy preferences"
Rural areas have higher rates of military service than urban ones. Therefore, they have higher rates of military casualties. This is literally the "correlation, not causation" warning incarnate.
Seriously though, are Ohio politicians trying to fuck shit up right now? I'm lost, confused and concerned.
There aren't more Right-Wing voters, they are just much better distributed (since distribution matters so much in our political system). Also Right-Wing media is a posion on our country.
Primary Colors: On Democratic Presidential Politics, Neoliberalism, and the White Working Class
TLDR: Democrats kept moving to the left but WWC kept spitting in their eyes until Clinton. Democrats have lost White vote since Civil Rights Act and its been a struggle with that demographic ever since.
I personally feel some left-wing policies may have more success nowadays since "COMMUNISM /SOCIALISM" isn't really a fear millennials have anymore and POC/Women/LGBT have stronger voices than ever. Still, voter distribution, voter suppression, Right-Wing Media, etc. means it will still be a challenge.
There aren't more Right-Wing voters, they are just much better distributed (since distribution matters so much in our political system). Also Right-Wing media is a posion on our country.
Primary Colors: On Democratic Presidential Politics, Neoliberalism, and the White Working Class
TLDR: Democrats kept moving to the left but WWC kept spitting in their eyes until Clinton. Democrats have lost White vote since Civil Rights Act and its been a struggle with that demographic ever since.
I personally feel some left-wing policies may have more success nowadays since "COMMUNISM /SOCIALISM" isn't really a fear millennials have anymore and POC/Women/LGBT have stronger voices than ever. Still, voter distribution, voter suppression, Right-Wing Media, etc. means it will still be a challenge.
DSA types. It also can be a combination of racism and other factors. I don't obviously buy the argument that the Obama voters that flipped to Trump can't be/aren't racist, but I'm open to hearing supplementary rationales.
I edited my original post to go into more detail - the issue with this argument is that the areas Trump succeeded in naturally have higher losses than the areas Trump loss due to the nature of military recruitment in this day and age. This would be true no matter the rate of conflict and ignores a whole truckload of data regarding these voters.
Veritigo_X
Member
Is it the Medicaid expansion thing? Kasich vetoed the Medicaid expansion freeze but the Ohio House threatened to override that veto. They decided today to not vote on overriding that veto and left it as pending. Pretty much they can revisit it anytime before the end of 2018.
Unless you're talking about something else that I've missed.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Mark Penn is the political genius of our time for having managed to get a president re-elected during a booming economy. Gore would have won had he targeted Wired Workers like Penn wanted him to.
If you read the full study, they're aware of this:
Prior research has shown that Iraq and Afghanistan war casualties are not randomly distributed across the country. Rather, they correlate significantly with other demographics that might also identify communities particularly receptive to Trump's candidacy.37 To insure that county casualty rates are not just serving as a proxy for another characteristic identifying counties predisposed to support Trump to a greater degree than Romney, we estimated a second regression model including a number of control variables. Perhaps most importantly, because prior research has shown that recent war casualties have hailed disproportionately from communities with lower levels of income and educational attainment, we control for each county's median family income and percentage of adult residents with a college degree. Exit polls from 2016 showed that Trump performed well among voters without a college degree; as a result, this is a particularly important control.38
A) I mean I don't disagree that calling out the stupid wars we've had stupid probably helped Trump. I just don't think it mattered more than a bunch of other factors AND, if you recognized Trump for the lying piece of shit he was (most of America but not in the right places) then those statements by him wouldn't mean anything.
B) Half of Twitter is telling me the Ohio house voted to override Kasich on his veto on a Medicaid freeze and the other half is telling me it didn't. Hopefully Kasich veto stands.
No I was talking about that (after looking into it more) but as I said I'm hearing totally different things on Twitter. I should get on a real Ohio newspaper site though
B) Half of Twitter is telling me the Ohio house voted to override Kasich on his veto on a Medicaid freeze and the other half is telling me it didn't. Hopefully Kasich veto stands.
No I was talking about that (after looking into it more) but as I said I'm hearing totally different things on Twitter. I should get on a real Ohio newspaper site though
RustyNails
Member
I'm thinking of knocking on doors and working the phones for IL-6, for whoever is the Dem nominee. Pete Roskam is a scab .
Veritigo_X
Member
A) I mean I don't disagree that calling out the stupid wars we've had stupid probably helped Trump. I just don't think it mattered more than a bunch of other factors AND, if you recognized Trump for the lying piece of shit he was (most of America but not in the right places) then those statements by him wouldn't mean anything.
B) Half of Twitter is telling me the Ohio house voted to override Kasich on his veto on a Medicaid freeze and the other half is telling me it didn't. Hopefully Kasich veto stands.
No I was talking about that (after looking into it more) but as I said I'm hearing totally different things on Twitter. I should get on a real Ohio newspaper site though
They overrode some of his Medicaid budget related vetoes, but they didn't vote on the Medicaid expansion freeze.
http://www.dispatch.com/news/201707...rom-overriding-kasich-veto-of-medicaid-freeze
Casualties are going to be overrepresented in Red states because military recruitment is over-represented in red states. This is '05 data (from pre-crazytown Heritage) that explains this pretty well - http://www.heritage.org/defense/rep...cteristics-us-military-recruits-and-after-911
There's actually some interesting stuff in there about how military recruitment is not functioning as a ladder for low-income families. (that probably hasn't changed much in the last 10 years) that's worth chewing on.
Well sure, its clear that military recruitment is over-represented in red states. Not sure how that invalidates the ultimate point, though, that pro-war perceptions of Clinton in those areas versus Trump were a factor for those military voters. Look at the Trump vs. Romney data, as well as the Obama / McCain data.
That data points to factors, but it isn't exclusive. I don't know why you can't consider this as a factor.
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