That's not really what this paper is saying, but okay.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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That's not really what this paper is saying, but okay.
Some people (easily fooled or dumb) thought Trump was more dovish than Clinton. We know this. So I don't think its unfair to say that helped Trump. Again the issue was that HE WAS LYING and if you listened to him for more than 2 minutes, it was obvious he had no idea what he was talking about regarding foreign policy. He still doesn't. If he gets us into another, real military conflict I do think that will actually put a big crack in his numbers.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
"Hillary is a huge hawk" is still one of the distortions that pisses me off most from 2016. Mainly because it came from the left and the right, and as always, nuance be damned.
No?
It says those who experienced loss during wars during Obama may have been swayed by Trump's message. You can't leave out the part where you consider Clinton's history and message on foreign policy (which was bad).
excelsiorlef
Member
http://stopmebeforeivoteagain.org/stopme/chapter02.html
Your thoughts on this? This is very old, but I still agree 1000%
Sounds like every blame Democrats for the Republicans piece.
Clinton came after 12 years of Reagan and George HW Bush... Remember Clinton going into that election wasn't even supposed to win.
And the Democrat didn't immediately jump to Clinton.
First they of course ran Carter trying to get a second term.
Then they ran Mondale... yeah
And then Dukakis... Nope
It's a lot more complicated than Dems suck and that's why the GOP goes right
Maybe not, I actually agree. But its just a model, and their model is really tuned to pick up the effects of these casualties. They don't provide a qualitative conclusion based on this, but simply are showing how their model plays out under different scenarios. I don't think there's any harm in trying to think about how Dem messaging about war and foreign policy can affect these lives.
Its one of the factors that ties into the Ds are an elite party that is out of touch. For the most part, it isn't their kids that are going to war.
(because low income urban kids aren't being recruited)
You still don't understand the whole "elitism" thing. You can't fix this because it's about rural vs urban, it's about white supremacy vs multiculturalism. They will always portray you as "elite and out of touch" no matter what you do.
Well, I agree there actually. That's my fundamental disagreement with the DSA generally (e.g., perceptions of race in this country, as well as sexism).
But yes, while you cannot fix this perception by trying to ameliorate issues in the socioeconomic rural/urban divide, you can definitely peel back some of the Obama/Trump voters.
That's all the party needs to do.
I think people aren't rational or necessarily fully informed. I do think some people truly thought Trump was some new form of isolationist, populist.
I just want the Dems to come out STRONGLY anti-war, anti-interventionist. That's all you can control.
Sure, and the trick is that the margins were so thin that this actually isn't that difficult, especially now that Trump has actual history to run against. The people crying about an "unprecedented" defeat blatantly can't do math and have clearly not ever looked at the '80s in their history books. This was an election lost by a hair, and if you don't understand that and the reactionary nature of the US electorate, you're going to take all the wrong lessons away.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
lol is "Hillary is a hawk" a radical lefty narrative now? She supports intervention at basically every single opportunity to do so, what war hasn't she supported? I guess she didn't want to invade Iran when Bush was president.
Agree and disagree to some extent. Yes, the margins were tiny. However, the margins were tiny against fucking Donald Trump.
That says something to me, and that feels pretty unprecedented.
And then you will get the problem of 2012 when they get called weak and that the military is in disrepair! (which is another lol point from Trump).
And yeah, people bought that trump was a populist and that black people and immigrants are bad, that is the reality we live in.
I would also want an anti-war Dem, but it is kinda stupid that they blame that for the Dems loss when Trump pretty much said shit about the army and they still voted mainly red
Edit: I think it is also important to say that the economy was going ok, no huge crises on the horizon so part of the WWC would prefer to gamble on a old white rich boy than a spawn of satan women. Even more if the old white guy says you can have your cake and eat it!
Bush II second term was precedent for this, where the country swung right - to the disbelief of Europe and the world - a war of his own making being the driver - Trump's rise was fueled by racism and reactionary populism. It's a different set of fuels but presses some of the same buttons.
- Hilary has a somewhat hawkish worldview/history = fine critique, no candidate is perfect. Also easier to say you are anti-interventionist than actually be it.
- Hilary will start WW3 and thus you should vote for Trump, Jill Stein, sit out = FUCKING STUPID
This too^
A non-zero amount of the blame lays with the Democrats (strategy of trying to flip Romney Republicans and separate Trump from GOP was bad)
HOWEVER, the electorate doesn't get to skate away scott free. Large swaths of America should have fucking known better. Also Media fucked up, etc.
The data says Trump was the most unpopular candidate in history no?
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
It's a gross simplification. She's both advocated military force and diplomatic solutions at different times.
whyamihere
Banned
Rosen is officially in for Nevada senate.
I'm down for a STEM woman and former Culinary union member to be a Senator. Let's go.
I'm down for a STEM woman and former Culinary union member to be a Senator. Let's go.
Of that I'm not sure, but I think so?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Sabato thinks the Dem edge in the generic ballot (as of now) is enough to win the House majority in 2018.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...rly-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/
Right now according to 538's model Democrats have a lead of around 7 points, which would put us just shy of 30 there. However the margin of error is +/- 11.9 seats, so Sabato says it's about a two-thirds chance if Democrats have that high of a lead.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...rly-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/
Right now according to 538's model Democrats have a lead of around 7 points, which would put us just shy of 30 there. However the margin of error is +/- 11.9 seats, so Sabato says it's about a two-thirds chance if Democrats have that high of a lead.
Who got elected after the 11th hour Comey letter crashed Clinton's numbers. (Yes, this wasn't the only thing and they shouldn't have been in that position, yada yada..)
If you view Trump as a fluke as the result of a perfect storm, then it's a very different set of actions you take next as opposed to Trump as "THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY IF WE DONT STOP IT"
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Sabato thinks the Dem edge in the generic ballot (as of now) is enough to win the House majority in 2018.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...rly-advantage-in-battle-for-control-of-house/
Right now according to 538's model Democrats have a lead of around 7 points, which would put us just shy of 30 there. However the margin of error is +/- 11.9 seats, so Sabato says it's about a two-thirds chance if Democrats have that high of a lead.
I would imagine when/if the AHCA passes, the edge would balloon a bit.
excelsiorlef
Member
Hillary is hawkish compared to much of the rest of her party, and certainly is hawkish compared to actual democratic voters. The fact that Trump and republicans are worse does not absolve her of criticism or suddenly make her relatively hawkish nature some lolz-worthy, far left fiction. And just because someone criticizes Clinton or democrats doesn't mean they're some alt-right Trump supporter who didn't still vote for her.
Autodidact
Banned
The Felix Sater news delights me. We've speculated about Flynn/Manafort/Page flipping, but now we have confirmation that someone's submitted himself to investigators - not just any someone, but someone with ties to Russian dirty money.
"Follow the money" will always be relevant to any political investigation.
"Follow the money" will always be relevant to any political investigation.
I know for him it was a throwaway line to avoid being definitive, but I'm curious to watch the reactions if Trump gets hammered on the assertion that "lots of people interfere" and "other countries" interefered in addition to Russia.
"Mr. President do you have intelligence that supports other countries interfered in the election as well as Russia? Which countries, in what manner?"
This could quietly be another "wiretapped me" situation where he spouts off about something he misunderstood or some spur of the moment nonsense to get out of making a statement and it turns into defenses and proposed actions because no one on his staff wants to admit that he just says whatever shit comes into his head to end a sentence without committing to anything.
"Mr. President do you have intelligence that supports other countries interfered in the election as well as Russia? Which countries, in what manner?"
This could quietly be another "wiretapped me" situation where he spouts off about something he misunderstood or some spur of the moment nonsense to get out of making a statement and it turns into defenses and proposed actions because no one on his staff wants to admit that he just says whatever shit comes into his head to end a sentence without committing to anything.
Again:
- Hilary has a somewhat hawkish worldview/history = fine critique, no candidate is perfect. Also easier to say you are anti-interventionist than actually be it.
- Hilary will start WW3 and thus you should vote for Trump, Jill Stein, sit out = FUCKING STUPID
Box of Kittens
Banned
I think being overly hawkish is a fair criticism of Clinton. It played a large role in my decision to vote for Obama in the 2008 primary. Particularly given that opposition to the Iraq War had been a major factor in Dems gaining Congress in 2006, it seemed like a bad idea to me to nominate someone who had voted for the war.
Now, left-wing voters who thought that a Trump presidency would mean a more dovish foreign policy are idiots, but that doesn't absolve Clinton or mean her foreign policy views weren't a real problem for her campaign.
Now, left-wing voters who thought that a Trump presidency would mean a more dovish foreign policy are idiots, but that doesn't absolve Clinton or mean her foreign policy views weren't a real problem for her campaign.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Even if it makes it harder for us to win the House, I'd still rather not have this happen.
Fenderputty
Banned
Yeah it was my good morning news to wake up to as well.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
My statement was "huge hawk."
Clinton is more hawkish than the party at large, but she was regularly called more hawkish than anyone of the GOP candidates, which is nonsense. They virtually all ran on re-igniting tensions with Iran. Hillary was instrumental in implementing the diplomatic solution we have now with Iran. At no time did she ever advocate force as a solution there, as McCain and Romney did.
However, people like binary answers and dislike context (such as that for her 2003 vote for war in Iraq), so "Hillary is a Hawk" was repeated over and over.
Clinton is more hawkish than the party at large, but she was regularly called more hawkish than anyone of the GOP candidates, which is nonsense. They virtually all ran on re-igniting tensions with Iran. Hillary was instrumental in implementing the diplomatic solution we have now with Iran. At no time did she ever advocate force as a solution there, as McCain and Romney did.
However, people like binary answers and dislike context (such as that for her 2003 vote for war in Iraq), so "Hillary is a Hawk" was repeated over and over.
I'm not sure it makes that much difference whether it passes. The House has a vote on record on that bill, and if a bill doesn't even make it out of the Senate than the House Yays won't even have a "better" or "less bad" bill to point to them having voted for later as a worthless mea culpa. I mean, the attacks write themselves at this point whether legislation is enacted or not.
IggyChooChoo
Member
If rural hospitals start closing due to Medicaid cuts, then I think the impact could be huge.
Basileus777
Member
Context doesn't really help any of the Democratic Senators that voted for the Iraq War, it just turns the narrative towards their political opportunism and how they voted to enable a war because they thought doing otherwise would harm their future political ambitions. There's actually some karmic justice in how that blew up against them.
Problematically we use team mentality instead of throwing them out on their asses: 'Everyone was doing it. The political cost was too high." etc.
Including me. I gave the dems a "pass" because there was no alternative. But they mostly voted for that nonsense too and helped absolutely ruin the middle east for decades to come.
nature boy
Member
So-called POTUS couldn't find a hotel room in Hamburg?
#somuchwinning
#somuchwinning
Everyone: "Trump says the dumbest shit I've ever heard from someone in government"
Rick Perry: "Hold my beer".
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
The fundamental issue w/ Clinton is that she shouldn't have still been running for President in '16 because of those time-baggage effects where an entire generation grows up without context for earlier decisions.
This won't be a problem w/ whoever the candidate is in '20 (assuming it's not one of the dinosaurs from '08/'16, which it shouldn't be.)
This won't be a problem w/ whoever the candidate is in '20 (assuming it's not one of the dinosaurs from '08/'16, which it shouldn't be.)
Fenderputty
Banned
Perry correctly explaining the demand side of economics would have been more shocking to me, honestly.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Great. Wonderful. Fantastic.
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