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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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W

whyamihere

Banned
north-dakotas-attorney-general-heidi-heitkamp-picture-id523670190
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Crab said:
No? MM districts are ruled out by ordinary statute, not constitutional law. However, they'll never be feasible in American, since they have to be adopted on a state-by-state basis and red states will never adopt them. AV (ranked choice) is, very sadly, the best that is realistically on offer.
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Right, but they don't love them on a federal level?

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_chambers_that_use_multi-member_districts

The U.S. Supreme Court has discouraged the use of multi-member districts over time, but has not entirely ruled them unconstitutional. While they are legally acceptable in drawing state legislative boundaries (though not preferable in court-ordered reapportionment per Connor v. Johnson), federal law dating back to 1842 dictates that they cannot be used in drawing boundaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. By the time the last law requiring single-member districts was passed in 1967, Hawaii and New Mexico were the only states left to be affected.[3][9]
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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
P

PBY

Banned
Heller and Capito are now open to this new amendment and/or further changes too.
See @dylanIscott

I thought Heller couldn't walk this back but...
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
PBY said:
Seems okay-ish. More context from Ralston below:

What @SenDeanHeller said:
1. Don't kick Nevadans off Medicaid.
2. Don't kick 10s of millions off h/c.
3. Don't lie about lower premiums.
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Soooo keep Obamacare and improve it? Fat chance. They're more likely to try and squeak out a clean repeal than to cave like that.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Collins and Heller are still hard Nos and nothing about Cruz's amendment addresses the problems that Murkowski, Capito etc had with it (Medicaid cuts, opioid crisis funding). Not sure what all the hubbub is about.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Just stop pussyfooting and do it, GOP, just do what you really want to do, make this country worse, and just keep doing what you want to do now that you have power.

I'd rather this constant charade end and they just do whatever they want so the country gets all the consequences now and pulls that bandaid right off.
 
P

PBY

Banned
TumblingHippo said:
Just stop pussyfooting and do it, GOP, just do what you really want to do, make this country worse, and just keep doing what you want to do now that you have power.

I'd rather this constant charade end and they just do whatever they want so the country gets all the consequences now and pulls that bandaid right off.
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I mean, this isn't a game - many people will really be affected by this.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
PBY said:
I mean, this isn't a game - many people will really be affected by this.
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I've been affected by it my whole life, so I'm caring less and less now. Let them push this country as far as they want, and see if when that pendulum swings back if it swings back so hard it breaks everything.

I think the thing that has affected me most is seeing this very positive LGBT vlogger go from an archive of all the positive advances over the past decade to observing all the ways it's being brought back down and it's filled me with a lot of negative feelings about this country.

I'd rather the GOP just go full stop so all of their followers suffer more than they already have. I know that's harsh, but sometimes it feels good to shout into the void.
 
P

PBY

Banned
TumblingHippo said:
I've been affected by it my whole life, so I'm caring less and less now. Let them push this country as far as they want, and see if when that pendulum swings back if it swings back so hard it breaks everything.

I think the thing that has affected me most is seeing this very positive LGBT vlogger go from an archive of all the positive advances over the past decade to observing all the ways it's being brought back down and it's filled me with a lot of negative feelings about this country.

I'd rather the GOP just go full stop so all of their followers suffer more than they already have. I know that's harsh, but sometimes it feels good to shout into the void.
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Trust me - I've never felt more pessimistic about this country. I hear you.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
This seems like it could be a problem for Trump's Midwestern Wall. It's an old poll from two weeks ago, but they've dug into the demos.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/...-hurting-trumps-standing-wisconsin/459992001/

Donald Trump’s weakness with key voting groups in Wisconsin — suburbanites, college-grads, women — has carried over from his campaign to his presidency, weighing down his public standing in the state, an analysis of 2017 polling shows.

Trump’s job rating among women was abysmal in a Wisconsin survey conducted two weeks ago by the Marquette University Law School: 37% approved and 56% disapproved.

It was even worse with college-educated voters: 30% approved and 62% disapproved.
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And today Trump enjoys positive approval ratings from some key voting groups he won last November, such as rural voters and men. He has maintained a positive rating in northern Wisconsin (including the Green Bay region), despite his negative numbers statewide.

But his margins with some of his best demographic groups are thin. Among rural voters, who backed him in the election by historic margins, 48% approve of how he's handling his job and 44% disapprove, based on Marquette's polling this year.
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Trump has averaged 41% approval and 49% disapproval in these two surveys. Walker’s ratings are better, but still negative: 46% approval, 48% disapproval.

The polling shows that while Trump and Walker have similar approval ratings with some voting groups, Trump lags well behind Walker with others.

Women. Trump and Walker have roughly the same level of support among men. Both have a “net approval” rating (the percentage who approve minus the percentage who disapprove) of plus 6. But Trump’s standing is far worse among women (minus 21) than Walker’s (minus 9).

College grads. “Non-college” voters are pretty evenly divided in their approval of both men. College-grads, by contrast, rate them both negatively. But Trump’s “net approval” among voters with a bachelor’s or advanced degree is much worse (minus 25) than Walker’s (minus 11).

Younger voters. Trump is doing slightly worse than Walker among older voters, but significantly worse among younger voters. Trump has a net approval rating of minus 31 among those under 30; Walker’s rating is minus 21.

Southern Wisconsin. Both Republicans have positive ratings outside the Milwaukee and Madison media markets. In the 18-county Green Bay media market, Trump’s “net approval” is plus 7. So is Walker’s. But Trump does considerably worse in southern Wisconsin. His negatives are higher than Walker’s in Democratic hotbeds like the city of Milwaukee and the Madison region. And his positives are lower in the Republican parts of the region.

In fact, the area where Trump lags behind Walker the most is the ultra-red suburban “collar” around Milwaukee, made up of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties.

Walker’s net approval rating in these three suburban counties is plus 14 this year. Trump’s is minus 2.

These are the same three counties where Trump got throttled in the GOP presidential primary last year. He won them against Clinton in the general election, but by smaller margins than Republicans usually rack up.

While GOP voters in general have rallied behind Trump as president, these counties are emblematic of Trump’s broader and persistent weakness with college-educated suburban voters. Trump has just a 41% approval rating from suburban voters statewide in Marquette's polling this year, while his disapproval rating is 50%.

For Walker, there’s both good and bad news in the numbers.

By definition, Trump’s weakness in Wisconsin makes the president a potential drag on the governor.

At the same time, Walker is “outperforming” Trump (his job ratings are better) among most segments of the electorate.

The only demographic group in this analysis where Trump had a better approval score than Walker was unmarried men. The groups where Trump lagged the most behind Walker were unmarried women, college grads, voters under 30, married women, weekly churchgoers and suburban voters.

“Walker shows that it’s possible to come back from a 36 percent approval rating,” Franklin said, referring to the plunge the governor’s numbers took back home after he ran for president in 2015.

“What Trump has yet to demonstrate is that he can rise above the 41% that we’ve seen (for him) this year,” said Franklin.

If Trump is going to do that in a meaningful way, he’ll have to improve his standing with key voting groups that view him negatively now -- and have since he began running for office.
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N

neurosisxeno

Member
Buyers remorse. A lot of those middle class white people who expected Trump to "run the Government like a business" and create bazillions of jobs are realizing he's still just a conman.
 
N

NobleXenon

Member
Heller isn't going to do shit. Nevada is becoming Lithium Valley. The "Californiacation" has already took place. They need to move the fuck on.
 
H

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
neurosisxeno said:
Buyers remorse. A lot of those middle class white people who expected Trump to "run the Government like a business" and create bazillions of jobs are realizing he's still just a conman.
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I never understood that thought. Businesses make money by cutting costs and increasing efficiency (which most times leads to cutting jobs) or by selling off valuable assets and then dumping whatever remains (which also generally leads to cutting jobs)
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
I'm glad about those numbers, but I have to admit I'm getting kind of tired of seeing pollsters talk about how people under 30 view these politicians because these people under 30 don't seem to get to the polls when they need to.
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Maybe it would help if we nominated someone people under 30 actually liked.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Hubbl3 said:
I never understood that thought. Businesses make money by cutting costs and increasing efficiency (which most times leads to cutting jobs) or by selling off valuable assets and then dumping whatever remains (which also generally leads to cutting jobs)
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It's one of those phrases that sounds good to stupid people. Also notice a lot of people who say that kind of thing hate the way big businesses are run, but for some reason think it's how things should be handled. What I don't understand, is as you pointed out businesses primary goal is to be profitable and accumulate wealth. Why would people want their Government to just stockpile wealth? What are they going to do with all this money? Pay off the debt, then what? Just have a Scrooge McDuck style vault full of gold coins for the Senate and House to swim around in???
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Collins and Heller are still hard Nos and nothing about Cruz's amendment addresses the problems that Murkowski, Capito etc had with it (Medicaid cuts, opioid crisis funding). Not sure what all the hubbub is about.
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Also everyone keeps forgetting about Rand Paul, who wants absolutely nothing to do with the bill.

Collins + Heller + Paul is still the same bill killing trio it was three weeks ago
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
The eternal problem for us is going to be that after 8 years of a D presidency, they're not going to like anyone because most of them don't comprehend how bad the alternative is.
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They actually did like someone! We just didn't nominate them. Which is fair. But Hillary Clinton was uniquely incapable of appealing to young voters. Same thing happened in 2008!
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
They actually did like someone! We just didn't nominate them.
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Because we would have gotten a Jimmy Carter-esque presidency out of it where we didn't accomplish anything, followed by us getting demolished.

I don't think Sanders beats Trump, and even if he does, I do not think it goes well for us because I have absolutely zero faith in that man to actually be capable of leading a party, let alone an administration.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
Because we would have gotten a Jimmy Carter-esque presidency out of it where we didn't accomplish anything, followed by us getting demolished.

I don't think Sanders beats Trump, and even if he does, I do not think it goes well for us because I have absolutely zero faith in that man to actually be capable of leading a party, let alone an administration.
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Okay, so, that has nothing to do with the actual point about why young people didn't vote.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Okay, so, that has nothing to do with the actual point about why young people didn't vote.
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Because they're fucking coddled and start spouting off shit about "both sides" because their wee little newbie brains can't comprehend that the GOP are an actual threat.

It doesn't matter who we put out there. They're not going to like anyone attached to the admin. And guys like Bill and Obama don't have coattails.
 
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