whyamihere
Banned
who are you talking to. and what point are you trying to make.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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who are you talking to. and what point are you trying to make.
People under 30 don't know who you are unless you have a youtube or instagram account or are POTUS.
whyamihere
Banned
idk they liked the old dude from Vermont. They liked the black guy from Chicago and voted for him. They also liked the old dude from Islington and voted for him.
It's almost like when young people have a candidate they like, they go vote for them! Probably not a great idea to shit on the electorate that your coalition needs to win an election.
I think its fine if younger voters preferred Sanders but when it was crunch time, the choice was between Trump and Clinton. Every liberal/left-leaning independent 30 year old and under who could have voted and didn't last November because "both sides" or "she isn't inspiring" can get bent. Then again I vote based on policy positions which I guess makes me a freak among the voting population :/
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
*Democrats win huge majorities off young voters in 2008 after they loved the candidate*
*Labour makes insane comeback after being 20 points down by inspiring youth turnout with popular social democratic policies*
*Democrats lose in 2016 with low youth turnout after basically saying "fuck off and stop wanting things*
"the clearest solution is to not care about the youth vote"
*Labour makes insane comeback after being 20 points down by inspiring youth turnout with popular social democratic policies*
*Democrats lose in 2016 with low youth turnout after basically saying "fuck off and stop wanting things*
"the clearest solution is to not care about the youth vote"
Maybe they voted based on policy positions too, which is why they weren't as fond of the woman who sent them to die in a pointless expensive war and supported deregulating the economy and whipped votes to cut welfare, and instead preferred the candidates who spoke to their issues like not continuing endless war.
*Nods*
whyamihere
Banned
I'm not saying that it's defensible what they did.
However, if you want to win the youth vote, the best thing to do is actually nominate someone the youth likes. That is my only point.
Oh yes, because we didn't have a primary that Currently-Under-FBI-Investigation Bernie Sanders LOST?!?!
This didn't happen. Clinton's platform was super progressive. The reason they didn't vote for her had NOTHING to do with policy and everything to do with personality.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes so if you want to win the youth vote, you should vote for someone who they like. They didn't like Hillary in 08 and 16. The youth vote is one of the pillars of the Obama coalition.
This is bullshit and doesn't help anything.
neurosisxeno
Member
While I completely agree with you, a lot of that Youth crowd is backing confusing candidates with no chance of having successful careers and questionable ideology. Had someone on Reddit tell me to nominate Tulsi Gabbard in 2020 because Cory Booker was a complete crook. As much as I love Bernie, he allowed his "revolution" to become essentially an anti-Government left wing Tea Party.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
lol, that would make sense assuming Republicans would be better on ANY of the issues you mentioned.
So, instead they don't vote, in effect, voting for the worse option?
whyamihere
Banned
I mean, we did, and Hillary won, but she also lost the youth vote by a significant amount. Which, then, in the election, she significantly underperformed that demographic and then we lost!
My point earlier was that the youth is never going to like someone attached to the current admin because of the anti-authoritarianism that drives many of them.
Given that after 8 years, the candidate for the Dems is probably admin-attached, what these voters want is effectively a unicorn.
Like, if the Russia scandal is Stupid Watergate, I view this election as Stupid Bush v Gore.
This is total nonsense? Citation needed.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If democrats don't win the governorship in 2018, they need to pack it up. I don't know much about Whitmer, but she has a great shot with these numbers.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm not defending anyone. I'm saying, why are people surprised the youth didn't turn out for Hillary when she has never done well with young voters? Look at what Obama and Corbyn did. Their policy are fairly divergent, but the youth liked them. Personality matters a lot to this group of voters. You can debate the merits of that or whatever, but I'm telling everyone this the youth vote didn't turn out in 2016.
I don't think anything I'm saying is particularly controversial.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Interesting. The Milwaukee suburbs, particularly the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) to the north and west have long been the GOP base in the state. Trump underperformed Ron Johnson in the area but made up for it by overperforming in traditionally Democratic territory near the Mississippi. Being negative in the Milwaukee suburbs is very bad for Trump, and being only +4 with rural voters certainly makes me think he could be vulnerable in some of those western counties as well.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
After fighting as hard as possible to moderate the "super progressive" platform, Hillary then spent the rest of the year trying to win over suburban Republicans and running as issue-less a campaign as possible.
I mean, sure, but it's proven that running on being "not the other party" is a terrible strategy and "we'll continue the status quo trying to grind you into dust but make it less bad" is not exactly a compelling message.
RustyNails
Member
There was an article a while ago on how Tillerson was getting frustrated and yelling at people because Trump is such a moron. I'm assuming he's about to jump ship after Trump once again undercut him by saying "no we're not gonna have a joint cyber unit lol" after Tillerson explicitly says its happening.
This. It's basic game theory. It's fine to critique Clinton for her past mistakes but its still very obvious what the trajectory of her political career was, what the context of some of her past actions were and what was the other option in this binary choice. The issue is that voters, overall, aren't rational actors. I still want to punch everyone who sincerely thought Trump would be a foreign policy dove when it was pretty clear from the debates and his speeches he had no fucking clue what the fuck he was talking about on almost any issue.
whyamihere
Banned
I mean, again, they had a candidate. That candidate lost. Then they didn't show up. You can debate the merits of Bernie v. Trump and who would've won, but I think it's almost entirely more likely that Bernie would've outperformed Hillary on the youth vote.
I don't think that's controversial.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
The best way to inspire and turn out your base is to call them morons and try to get them to not expect anything positive to happen from you winning, just that you'll be less bad than the other guys.
He just needs to not travel anywhere and always be the last one to talk to Trump.
whyamihere
Banned
If you want to win Obama numbers with the youth vote, nominate someone who can win the youth vote.
That isn't an argument for anything. I'm telling you what just happened in 2016.
Fenderputty
Banned
We do have a primary lol. This statement is kind of silly if the person who appeals to the youth vote doesn't to the rest of the base. We end up where we left off too. Young people don't understand the importance of incrimentalism and voting to keep the other side out
Box of Kittens
Banned
Same here. If he's only +4 with rural voters AND holding up in Northern Wisconsin, that would certainly suggest to me that he's probably underwater in that district. But I'd sure love to see the actual numbers.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Maybe Hillary, after winning the primary but having a tighter-than-expected competition with a 100-year-old socialist with <1% name recognition because of the groundswell of youth support, should have realized she had a problem instead of deciding she can't do anything about it and totally ignoring it.
No one wants to vote for incrementalism.
Obama '08: 17,535,458
Clinton '08: 17,493,836
Clinton '16: 16,914,722
Sanders '16: 13,206,428
They didn't show up in the primaries either.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes so then maybe when you vote in a primary next time you should look to see which candidate nontraditional voters are responding to if you're voting based purely on electability.
I mean, you can vote on other stuff. That's your prerogative! But if you're voting for a candidate to win the youth vote by Obama 12 margins, then vote for the candidate the youth vote is winning.
Or get your candidate to have an actual message that actually inspires non-traditional voters to vote for her.
Fenderputty
Banned
The strategy was a mistake - she underestimated partisanship. Too many people who didn't like Trump still voted for him because he had an R next to his name. Also trying to separate Trump from rest of the GOP made him more palatable to Obama > Trump voters. I have no idea what you mean by moderating the platform, it was still super progressive. She spent too much money on anti-Trump ads but saying she ran an issue free campaign is beyond hyperbole.
Last time I checked, I'm not running for office or have to convince anyone to vote for me so I think I will continue to call out people for their irrational actions. Didn't we go over this earlier when people were fretting about calling people racists/sexists/etc. because we might lose their vote or something?
whyamihere
Banned
Oh good lord this is stupid.
Clinton was able to win because she was able to coalesce the black vote that Obama won in 2008 while also making significant gains in the Hispanic vote in the primary. And suburban voters.
Sanders was able to win caucuses and the youth vote, two pillars of the Obama coalition in the primary, but wasn't able to replicate his success with black voters because Nina Turner was actually the first black person that Bernie had ever met.
neurosisxeno
Member
Which part? It's a running joke around here that Tulsi Gabbard is somehow a liberal icon, and I consistently see her mentioned on places like Reddit when it comes to potential 2020 candidates. It's also pretty common that I see people like Booker, Schumer, and Perez shit on as "corporatists" and criticized for being "establishment". They may not be anti-Government, but they are hindering on anti-Democratic Party that's for sure.
It's more accurate to say Charismatic Democrats have a good chance of driving out the Youth Vote. On top of that, I would say a candidate under 50 greatly increases the likelihood younger people will show up and vote for them. 2016 for a lot of people under 30 was, do I vote for the septuagenarian with the e-mails or the septuagenarian with the spray tan and loud mouth. I think we need to focus on fielding a young charismatic candidate, and focus more on policy. While Bernie may have gotten annoying by just spouting his stump speech to people around her, it came across as genuine and consistent to every day people.
To be fair, that's what the entire Democratic party is doing right now, including Bernie Sanders.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
I'm pretty sure a Hillary administration looks similar, given Republicans pledged to stonewall her. There was NO good outcome for 2016, it was a true dumpster fire of a year all around. Trump, at least, may prove to be the enema the country needed, politically, and is toxifying alt-rightism all at once.
whyamihere
Banned
Yes. I think that's one reason why Booker tends to do well with young people despite being somewhat to the right of Hillary's 16 campaign, because he has an air of authenticity. Kamala has this as well.
Hillary... did not. You can argue about the gendered aspects of that (of which there are many and those are legitimate criticism), but she also did herself no favors.
Anyways, those are good lessons to learn! They're much better than "well, they should get over it" because yes, I agree, but we tried that and it failed.
I agree with you in large part- the reason I prefer Clinton to Sanders there is that Clinton is a political operator who likely would have been able to get the behind the scenes stuff working (EOs, etc.) even through the GOP stonewall. It gives us 4 more years to cement the ACA, etc. I don't think Sanders was or is capable of doing that.
Thankfully, it looks like a bunch of Obama's achievements are sticking because the GOP is fractured and incompetent because it turns out sniping from the outside for a decade doesn't lead to an ability to govern!
Fenderputty
Banned
Sure ... but what's easier? Finding a candidate that appeals to both, getting the base to follow the youth vote or operate like we always have assuming the youth vote will be what it always is?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I mean, it doesn't really matter if PoliGAF says this, but the attitude exhibited by Hillary's campaign basically matches it! The assumption was that because they were losing youngs, there was nothing that could be done so no real appeals should be made.
As it turns out, "Pokemong Go To The Polls" is a less compelling message for the youth than "stop fighting endless expensive devastating war abroad"
NYT dropped the next oppo and holy damn.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-russia-email-candidacy.html?_r=0
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-russia-email-candidacy.html?_r=0
To be clear I'm venting at people who I think are stupid. I'm not saying "to win the Democrats must do X". Part of winning elections is getting dumb people to vote for you - many lessons should be learned from 2016 and hope they are being learned. Again, none of us work on Democratic campaigns or think tanks. I get to say young people are dumb even if it won't win me any votes 
WUT?!?!?!
WUT?!?!?!
skullmuffins
Banned
hot damn.
is the plan for Don Jr to be to fall guy?
whyamihere
Banned
Well we clearly can't operate like the Clinton campaign did, so do the opposite.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Sheeeeeiiiitt, that email was sent BEFORE the meeting and by someone who was trying to help set it up.
whyamihere
Banned
I thought this was going to be a text to confirm my date tonight but it's better.
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