On the upside, he got there on the first day of Trump's vacation.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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On the upside, he got there on the first day of Trump's vacation.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Did anyone else see the latest President Show? The Kelly reveal, the farewell to the Mooch, and the Bannon entrance and exit were all pretty amazing. Bannon sucking his own dick seems like it ought to become the world's most popular reaction gif.
https://twitter.com/presidentshow/status/893486537761054721
https://twitter.com/presidentshow/status/893486537761054721
Aaron Strife
Banned
The talent is always wasted on the states with a low ceiling. The Montana party, while significantly more successful (can elect governors and Senators), is also pretty handicapped by its state's PVI.
Who's ready to obsess over pollzzzzz? Supposedly Quinnipiac has a fresh one for the Virginia gubernatorial race coming soon (later today? Not sure). Their last one in June had Northam up 8.
I know, I just get skittish until it's official.
I hope Wisconsin doesn't suddenly remember that they like Walker like they have for his other reelections. It's been a pattern that his approval ratings are mediocre in every year except when he happens to be on the ballot.
That'd kinda go against the whole idea of the vote then, wouldn't it?
Poodlestrike
Banned
I feel like considering that the West Virginia dems nominated and ran a dude who switched parties 9 months after the election, they should really be in the running here.
This is one of those "bad vs. nonexistent" questions, isn't it?
How good can a state Dem party be in a state with no Democrats?
This is one of those "bad vs. nonexistent" questions, isn't it?
How good can a state Dem party be in a state with no Democrats?
What about New Hampshire? They have a Republican governor, but also have an all Democratic congress.
You Know Nothing
Member
Finally, white people are no longer being oppressed by a black tyrant!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Oklahoma is like if Saudi Arabia hated the poor.
I'm not sure what the Dems could do there.
I'm not sure what the Dems could do there.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
It's like a penalty for having experience
Also the minority would win, which is... bad?
Also the minority would win, which is... bad?
You figure Trump wouldn't want to associate with a jailed-for-fraud ex-con at this point.
Dem parties that do way worse than they should: Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico.
Dem parties that do better than they should: Nevada, Montana, Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Yeah, I'd argue that to qualify as one of the worst state parties, you have to be in a state where you should at the very least be competitive.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Yeah bashing OK Dems is like bashing Idaho Dems, yeah, they don't really win but it's hard when there is literally no blue counties in your state.
That's why, say, Montana's Democrats stand out as good or why Florida's are so fucking bad.
That's why, say, Montana's Democrats stand out as good or why Florida's are so fucking bad.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Walker's a dummy but one smart thing he does is he always moderates as election time draws nearer, then goes hard right again after the election. He swore up and down that right-to-work wasn't part of his agenda in his first term when he needed to drive a wedge between public and private sector unions. Then he signed a right-to-work bill into law shortly into his second term. Now he's pulling the same act again with education funding.
Contrast to Bruce Rauner who recently purged his staff to install hard right think tank people. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish with that as there's no need to move further right from where he already was in order to run his strategy of setting the election up as him vs. Madigan and pitting downstate against Chicago.
1. Florida
Just incompetence of the highest order
2. Ohio
Despite its purple presidential status the party aside from 06 which at this point was an exception have been drubbed repeated since 1990.
3. Michigan
Despite its most recent blue presidential tilt since 1992 until 2016 has only won 4/14 gubernatorial elections going back to George Romney in 1962.
4. Wisconsin
Walker. Enough said
5. Any random flyover state such as Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri etc or South such as Arkansas, Mississippi etc
Realignment resulting in the utter destruction of the party and/or the state being historically Republican since inception
Box of Kittens
Banned
The Democratic Party of Illinois is an interesting example. They're plenty competent at what they do, it's just that what they do (act as an instrument through which Mike Madigan wields power) is not really what you'd want a state party to be doing.
Either way, Illinois Dems have had more than enough success at the state level to keep them out of the bottom five conversation.
Either way, Illinois Dems have had more than enough success at the state level to keep them out of the bottom five conversation.
platypotamus
Member
Everyone sleeping on McMuffin, or just think he'll go independent rather than R?
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Manchin gives me hope that the right dem could steal a seat in oklahoma. Republicans fucked our economy up, our schools barely function, everyone is poor and lives paycheck to paycheck.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Box of Kittens
Banned
Indiana used to have a very well run Democratic Party that used the Kansas strategy (exploit the divisions in the state Republican Party) to great effect. Then Evan Bayh came along, repurposed the state party as his personal machine, and ultimately let the organization wither. They're not the worst state party by any means, but they don't punch above their weight the way they used to.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
A McMullin candidacy would win Idaho and Utah and get like one percent of the vote in every other primary.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
The Texas Lieutenant Governor, ladies and gentlemen:
Uhhh, oklahoma is a disaster and its 100 percent republican controlled.
The Texas Lieutenant Governor, ladies and gentlemen:
What is this nonsense? In front of my salad?
Box of Kittens
Banned
The irony of course is that rural American is struggling mightily compared to cities. But the people he's pandering to mostly wouldn't dare set foot in a city anyway so they'll buy the stereotypes.
Autodidact
Banned
If 2018 isn't a come to Jesus moment, we'll never have one.
platypotamus
Member
That sort of performance hasn't stopped many other people from entering primaries in the past. I certainly don't think he wins a repbulican primary, but I think he runs in 2020 as an R or an I, and he's got perhaps better anti-Trump credentials than most everyone else you guys have been mentioning, largely because he doesn't hold any office that could demand him working with Trump on anything
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
They let convicted felons in the WH?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's a really weird contrast between red state governors and Trump.
Trump's pitch was "your lives suck, you're all addicted to heroin, your jobs were stolen by free trade and you have no jobs, rural America is a joke" and then red state governors are like "the economy is booming, rural America is doing great!"
It's really kind of confusing and I think some local journalists should ask red state governors about this.
Scott Walker constantly talks about how great the economy in Wisconsin is doing and Trump constantly talks about how he won Wisconsin because Wisconsin was a drug infested hell hole with no jobs.
Trump's pitch was "your lives suck, you're all addicted to heroin, your jobs were stolen by free trade and you have no jobs, rural America is a joke" and then red state governors are like "the economy is booming, rural America is doing great!"
It's really kind of confusing and I think some local journalists should ask red state governors about this.
Scott Walker constantly talks about how great the economy in Wisconsin is doing and Trump constantly talks about how he won Wisconsin because Wisconsin was a drug infested hell hole with no jobs.
Amibguous Cad
Member
Apparently his approval ratings in Arizona are now 18/63
http://hotair.com/archives/2017/08/03/poll-jeff-flakes-approval-rating-arizona-now-1863/
Christ
He seems toast. His and Heller's seats are definitely winnable. If the 5 Romney Dems hold, that could guarantee at least a 50-50 split in the Senate.
Autodidact
Banned
Don't forget McCain's seat likely being in contention.
AZ + AZ + NV = Senate majority without having to fret over winning Texas.
Beer Monkey
Member
Rural America = opioid addiction and people who feel entitled for the government to create jobs for them where they live (despite being descended from Europeans who were willing to move to find work). The cities are literally feeding the country; wealth is distributed from the cities to rural America.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think this is an easier path than winning Texas.
That being said, I don't think it quite pans out that way - it's probably more likely that enough swing voters will figure "eh, I can vote for one from each party" and then you get a D and an R Senator elected.
But if it's Flake and Kelli Ward or something, I like our chances. Especially if Sinema and Kelly both jumped in.
Autodidact
Banned
If Beto can come within five points of Cruz, I'll consider his campaign an enormous success.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think if he wins I'd call that an enormous success.
If he comes within five points I'd say that's pretty good.
Yeah. Like, getting to 50 and Murkowski going D/I seems like the most likely path to a majority, but we'd likely have to flip at least 4 seats to get there. McCain retirement/Heller/Flake is only 3.
Autodidact
Banned
Don't Senators in the opposing party have like a 90% reelection rate during midterms?
Aaron Strife
Banned
They're still at risk, for sure, but incumbents from the minority party have a pretty good record of getting reelected in midterms, even in states that are getting worse for them on paper. The fact that McCaskill can barely draw a decent challenger suggests to me the candidates there aren't liking what they're seeing in internal polling.
Cohn actually said on Twitter today that a Senate R defection is probably the easiest path to a majority. Frankly I think Murkowski is tired of Trump's shit and if she was the deciding vote I think she'd flip, but obviously we should try to get to 51 without her.
It's like 97%.
We're spread pretty thin this year though.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Why is everyone afraid of mccaskill losing?
I hate to be morbid but isn't it likely that his condition means he can be dead by the end of the year?
Aaron Strife
Banned
She punches well above her weight for a Missouri senator (no bullshit Heitkamp/Manchin games), and the state has been lurching rightward very quickly.
I think she's an incredibly shrewd politician but worrying about a Dem senator in a state that went for Trump by 20 points is hardly irrational.
"I caucusing with D" is pretty much a meaningless distinction. There's a reason there are no straight-up Independents in the Senate, you lose all clout.
Autodidact
Banned
Fairly low popularity
State redder than six years ago
Standard progressive Election Stress Disorder (Pre-, Post-, and every time in-between)
Flipping to (I) to wrench the Senate out of (R) hands is plausible, it happened before in '02.
He has Senator health care so I like his chances.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Yes. He won't be alive for the 2018 elections.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's brain cancer, man. Kennedy had good health care too.
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