Box of Kittens
Banned
See the chart kirblar posted above. It's sadly to be expected, especially since most states elect their governors in a non-presidential cycle.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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See the chart kirblar posted above. It's sadly to be expected, especially since most states elect their governors in a non-presidential cycle.
See the chart kirblar posted above. It's sadly to be expected, especially since most states elect their governors in a non-presidential cycle.
Tell me about it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_1974
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_1976
37-12 D-R split. Wow. That Watergate bump.
President Carter what were you doing with all that power at your disposal in 1977? You had the WH, Congress, 37 Governor allies and a lot of state legislature control.
Box of Kittens
Banned
The good news is that midterm dynamics are now much more favorable than they were in 2010 or 2014. We could conceivably make up a lot of ground, which would also be huge in terms of getting a seat at the redistricting table in a lot of states (I don't want to count on SCOTUS to solve that problem for us).
Pennsylvania's already won on redistricting for Democrats, because they use a 5-part "bipartisan" commission, 2 D, 2 R, and the fifth is picked by the Supreme Court, which swung Dem in 2015 elections and is unlikely to revert before redistricting (due to 2015 being an odd year with a high number of vacancies).
The good news is that midterm dynamics are now much more favorable than they were in 2010 or 2014. We could conceivably make up a lot of ground, which would also be huge in terms of getting a seat at the redistricting table in a lot of states (I don't want to count on SCOTUS to solve that problem for us).
Yeah. State legislatures are too gerrymandered to really take back control in many of them so getting the Governorship is the best outcome. However some states like VA the Governor has no veto power or a super majority such as Oklahoma would just override whatever a potential D Governor vetos or a non-partisan map will have no effect on D chances in states like KS or SD. Although fair maps for all 50 states despite their partisan lean is the hopeful future.
Box of Kittens
Banned
What I'd like to see is a good summary of redistricting procedures in each state to see which races are important for those purposes. This page isn't bad but is missing some important details. For example, it lists Indiana as a state where the governor can veto the map. While technically true, Indiana only requires a simple majority to override a veto so it's pretty worthless.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Suppose you're Jeff Flake. You have a 2018 re-election bid, but you aren't going to be seriously challenged because despite your state trending a little blue and some demographic shifts happening, you're well liked, the AZ Democratic Party doesn't fully have their shit together, and you won your previous elections by huge margins. You hedged your bet on Trump before the election by nominally supporting the Republican candidate but calling for Trump to withdraw after the tape. You are being primaried from the right for 2018, but it's not serious.
You're 54 years old and you have a solid congressional record with five terms in the house and a full term in the senate. You are in good health and good shape.
You release a memoir / policy manifesto in book format in 2017.
Your ideological background in terms of voting is that you're basically the Median Republican: conservative, but not off with the wing-nuts.
You come out against the Muslim ban. You were part of the bipartisan immigration working group which, by the way, should have worked. You come out swinging with a widely shared op-ed calling for a repudiation of Trumpism and a return to bipartisanship and better relations across the aisle. You are in favour of the employment non-discrimination act, despite being publicly against same-sex marriage. You then very publicly become the go-to guy for a pull-quote on how Republicans deserve to win, but have to do better at working with the rest of the country. You also notably reached out to Gabrielle Giffords when she was shot, and then you were shot at but ultimately not hit by a wacko gunman. In the wake of this, there is wide media reporting about how former president Obama wished you well and that you seem to have a good personal relationship with Democrats and solid, good guy principles. Put it this way -- you're not a Maverick, you're still clearly a Republican, no one is saying you're not conservative, but you seem to be willing to work towards what you think is a better country rather than just laugh and burn it down.
The president (and leader of your party) is extremely vulnerable and unlikely to recover or win re-election. Will he run for re-election? Maybe, but it's not a guarantee.
Are Jeff Flake's actions in the last year consistent with someone who is going to run a primary campaign against the sitting president of his own party? Yes. Are his background and personal characteristics consistent with a good platform to launch such a bid? Yes.
You're 54 years old and you have a solid congressional record with five terms in the house and a full term in the senate. You are in good health and good shape.
You release a memoir / policy manifesto in book format in 2017.
Your ideological background in terms of voting is that you're basically the Median Republican: conservative, but not off with the wing-nuts.
You come out against the Muslim ban. You were part of the bipartisan immigration working group which, by the way, should have worked. You come out swinging with a widely shared op-ed calling for a repudiation of Trumpism and a return to bipartisanship and better relations across the aisle. You are in favour of the employment non-discrimination act, despite being publicly against same-sex marriage. You then very publicly become the go-to guy for a pull-quote on how Republicans deserve to win, but have to do better at working with the rest of the country. You also notably reached out to Gabrielle Giffords when she was shot, and then you were shot at but ultimately not hit by a wacko gunman. In the wake of this, there is wide media reporting about how former president Obama wished you well and that you seem to have a good personal relationship with Democrats and solid, good guy principles. Put it this way -- you're not a Maverick, you're still clearly a Republican, no one is saying you're not conservative, but you seem to be willing to work towards what you think is a better country rather than just laugh and burn it down.
The president (and leader of your party) is extremely vulnerable and unlikely to recover or win re-election. Will he run for re-election? Maybe, but it's not a guarantee.
Are Jeff Flake's actions in the last year consistent with someone who is going to run a primary campaign against the sitting president of his own party? Yes. Are his background and personal characteristics consistent with a good platform to launch such a bid? Yes.
Are Jeff Flake's actions in the last year consistent with someone who is going to run a primary campaign against the sitting president of his own party? Yes. Are his background and personal characteristics consistent with a good platform to launch such a bid? Yes.
We should be so lucky.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Jeff Flake is hated by Republicans.
Bit of an issue to win a Republican primary for president.
Bit of an issue to win a Republican primary for president.
Basileus777
Member
Suppose you're Jeff Flake. You have a 2018 re-election bid, but you aren't going to be seriously challenged because despite your state trending a little blue and some demographic shifts happening, you're well liked, the AZ Democratic Party doesn't fully have their shit together, and you won your previous elections by huge margins. You hedged your bet on Trump before the election by nominally supporting the Republican candidate but calling for Trump to withdraw after the tape. You are being primaried from the right for 2018, but it's not serious.
You're 54 years old and you have a solid congressional record with five terms in the house and a full term in the senate. You are in good health and good shape.
You release a memoir / policy manifesto in book format in 2017.
Your ideological background in terms of voting is that you're basically the Median Republican: conservative, but not off with the wing-nuts.
You come out against the Muslim ban. You were part of the bipartisan immigration working group which, by the way, should have worked. You come out swinging with a widely shared op-ed calling for a repudiation of Trumpism and a return to bipartisanship and better relations across the aisle. You are in favour of the employment non-discrimination act, despite being publicly against same-sex marriage. You then very publicly become the go-to guy for a pull-quote on how Republicans deserve to win, but have to do better at working with the rest of the country. You also notably reached out to Gabrielle Giffords when she was shot, and then you were shot at but ultimately not hit by a wacko gunman. In the wake of this, there is wide media reporting about how former president Obama wished you well and that you seem to have a good personal relationship with Democrats and solid, good guy principles. Put it this way -- you're not a Maverick, you're still clearly a Republican, no one is saying you're not conservative, but you seem to be willing to work towards what you think is a better country rather than just laugh and burn it down.
The president (and leader of your party) is extremely vulnerable and unlikely to recover or win re-election. Will he run for re-election? Maybe, but it's not a guarantee.
Are Jeff Flake's actions in the last year consistent with someone who is going to run a primary campaign against the sitting president of his own party? Yes. Are his background and personal characteristics consistent with a good platform to launch such a bid? Yes.
I don't understand this counterfactual. Most of the premises set up in the opening paragraph are false. For starters he won his seat by less than 70k votes in 2012.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Arizona Dems are actually pretty good.
It's not like the Wisconsin Democratic Party or anything.
It's not like the Wisconsin Democratic Party or anything.
There are a few of those respected (within the party and somewhat outside) GOP types angling for a 2020 option: Flake, Sasse, and Kasich.
Only Kasich remotely qualifies as a moderate (and it's more that he got burned trying to Walker-ize Ohio so tacked to the center and stayed there).
Only Kasich remotely qualifies as a moderate (and it's more that he got burned trying to Walker-ize Ohio so tacked to the center and stayed there).
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I don't understand this counterfactual.
There's no counterfactual, I just think by observation that Flake's recent actions have been part of prepping a primary bid against Trump. I also expect Kasich to do the same kind of exploration. Not sure if anyone else will. The more Trump drops, the more Republicans will be considering it. Primarying a sitting president is neither odd nor impossible, especially in light of Trump's support being connected to having Republican support by default; once someone offers a Republican alternative to Trump, some fraction of his support within the party will migrate there. Most people have interpreted Flake's actions over the last few weeks as being about warding off a tough Primary or GE challenge in Arizona next year. Maybe they are, but I suspect that'll be an easier race for him than many believe. I suspect this is about 2020.
There are a few of those respected (within the party and somewhat outside) GOP types angling for a 2020 option: Flake, Sasse, and Kasich.
Only Kasich remotely qualifies as a moderate (and it's more that he got burned trying to Walker-ize Ohio so tacked to the center and stayed there).
To be clear, I'm not characterizing Flake as a "moderate" -- I'm characterizing Flake as a "moderate Republican", e.g. around the median of the Republican party. I think, as my post lays out, that he's been seem to be publicly involved in bipartisan initiatives despite a solidly conservative self-identification and voting record. This is the kind of flexibility you probably want to be conservative enough to win a primary and flexible enough to win a general. I'm not saying he would win either, btw.
Sasse I think is more about career building in the mean time and I wouldn't expect him to jump at 2020 with or without Trump to challenge. Kasich is clearly about running.
Basileus777
Member
You'd have to be crazy to think Flake's book would help him in a Republican primary, the Republican base is all about red meat, not bipartisanship. He's a vulnerable incumbent likely to lose his own Senate seat, not someone looking to be President.
Jeff Flake is hated by Republicans.
Bit of an issue to win a Republican primary for president.
Yeah, there's no guarantee he'll even survive his own Senate primary next year. He's got some of the lowest (if not the lowest) approval ratings of any Senate Republican.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
There's no counterfactual, I just think by observation that Flake's recent actions have been part of prepping a primary bid against Trump. I also expect Kasich to do the same kind of exploration. Not sure if anyone else will. The more Trump drops, the more Republicans will be considering it. Primarying a sitting president is neither odd nor impossible, especially in light of Trump's support being connected to having Republican support by default; once someone offers a Republican alternative to Trump, some fraction of his support within the party will migrate there. Most people have interpreted Flake's actions over the last few weeks as being about warding off a tough Primary or GE challenge in Arizona next year. Maybe they are, but I suspect that'll be an easier race for him than many believe. I suspect this is about 2020.
You think Jeff Flake, he of a 20% approval rating among Arizona Republicans, thinks he can win a national GOP primary?
No, he does not. He's not that stupid.
whyamihere
Banned
Flake barely won in 2012 and the AZ Dem party is really good.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
You think Jeff Flake, he of a 20% approval rating among Arizona Republicans, thinks he can win a national GOP primary?
I think that Jeff Flake, who just had a poll where he has a low approval rating among Arizona Republicans but previously enjoyed solid support, believes himself to be well capitalized to be "Not Trump", should it come to that. You need to do this kind of positioning in advance of any kind of formal race, whether you ultimately enter or not, the same way Gillibrand may not ultimately run depending on which way the wind blows. I think you'd be nuts to think that if Trump's erosion continues at even half the rate it is now, there won't be a GOP primary. If Trump is at Bush Year 6 numbers in Trump Year 2, it's going to get ugly.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Worst Dem parties.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
What states round out the 5 worst?
Flake has been the least liked Republican Senator for all of the last two years.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
What states round out the 5 worst?
I think that Jeff Flake, who just had a poll where he has a low approval rating among Arizona Republicans but previously enjoyed solid support, believes himself to be well capitalized to be "Not Trump", should it come to that. You need to do this kind of positioning in advance of any kind of formal race, whether you ultimately enter or not, the same way Gillibrand may not ultimately run depending on which way the wind blows. I think you'd be nuts to think that if Trump's erosion continues at even half the rate it is now, there won't be a GOP primary. If Trump is at Bush Year 6 numbers in Trump Year 2, it's going to get ugly.
Flake has been the least liked Republican Senator for all of the last two years.
RastaMentality
Banned
If there's GOP primary debates in 2020 I will die. imagine the shit Trump's press secretary and administration would be pulling.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The 2020 primary will be Pence vs. Kasich vs. Cruz.
Trump will get impeached in 2018 or 2019.
Trump will get impeached in 2018 or 2019.
I mean, it's not a terrible argument, I just think it's much more likely to be Kasich, who was consistently anti-Trump the entire time and is still popular among Republicans and in his state.
There are definitely Republicans positioning to be "the guy who predicted Trump was bad" when they eventually have to rebuild the GOP on non-quisling lines. Flake might be one of them. He's just also not that well positioned to do it because he's pissed everybody off on both sides. But it might be his only play.
There are definitely Republicans positioning to be "the guy who predicted Trump was bad" when they eventually have to rebuild the GOP on non-quisling lines. Flake might be one of them. He's just also not that well positioned to do it because he's pissed everybody off on both sides. But it might be his only play.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Worst Dem parties.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
What states round out the 5 worst?
I would nominate Ohio to be among the five worst. Like FL and WI they have vastly underperformed their state's partisan lean in recent decades.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
he won by an amazing 3% in 2012
In a three party race in a purple state with Obama's coattails, yes -- I think that's probably pretty much what you'd expect, and absent the poll last week, I don't recall having seen any polls where he's been notably unpopular.
and he is more conservative than the average Senate Republican.
His position is actually quite a bit further right than I had previously thought (which is dumb on my part, because I should know this stuff pretty well), but it feels like that actually ends up being more of a response to the argument that he's insufficiently conservative to win a primary.
The 2020 primary will be Pence vs. Kasich vs. Cruz.
Trump will get impeached in 2018 or 2019.
I agree that Pence is likely to survive Trumpageddon and be respected in the party and probably run. I do not expect Trump to be impeached, but I also don't think that necessarily means he'll end up running for re-election, and I expect a primary against him if he does.
VendettaRed07
Member
Beto is doing an AMA on reddit. Take aways
1) flat out supports single payer. Good for him
2) Refuses to take pac money. Also good and will help contrast him to Cruz
3) Term limits on congress. Don't agree with it but I guess it is another angle that could be a workable pitch to Texans that he's against the current "system" of corruption
4) will trek every inch of the state to try and unseat Cruz. Promises to not get outcampaigned/worked
I still don't think he has a shot but imo he's saying and doing everything he needs to be if he wanted to have even a remote chance
1) flat out supports single payer. Good for him
2) Refuses to take pac money. Also good and will help contrast him to Cruz
3) Term limits on congress. Don't agree with it but I guess it is another angle that could be a workable pitch to Texans that he's against the current "system" of corruption
4) will trek every inch of the state to try and unseat Cruz. Promises to not get outcampaigned/worked
I still don't think he has a shot but imo he's saying and doing everything he needs to be if he wanted to have even a remote chance
Basileus777
Member
I mean, it's not a terrible argument, I just think it's much more likely to be Kasich, who was consistently anti-Trump the entire time and is still popular among Republicans and in his state.
There are definitely Republicans positioning to be "the guy who predicted Trump was bad" when they eventually have to rebuild the GOP on non-quisling lines. Flake might be one of them. He's just also not that well positioned to do it because he's pissed everybody off on both sides. But it might be his only play.
I'd think keeping himself employed would be part of this grand plan.
Arizona wasn't purple in 2012. Romney won it by 9 points and no one seriously contested the Presidential race there. 2018 will be a much more challenging year for Flake.In a three party race in a purple state with Obama's coattails, yes -- I think that's probably pretty much what you'd expect, and absent the poll last week, I don't recall having seen any polls where he's been notably unpopular.
Beto is doing an AMA on reddit. Take aways
1) flat out supports single payer. Good for him
2) Refuses to take pac money. Also good and will help contrast him to Cruz
3) Term limits on congress. Don't agree with it but I guess it is another angle that could be a workable pitch to Texans that he's against the current "system" of corruption
4) will trek every inch of the state to try and unseat Cruz. Promises to not get outcampaigned/worked
I still don't think he has a shot but imo he's saying and doing everything he needs to be if he wanted to have even a remote chance
Term limits is an anti-corruption measure for stupid people.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Ohio is up there with the other two, not sure any other state party is as bad as those three.Worst Dem parties.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
What states round out the 5 worst?
Flake has been the least liked Republican Senator for all of the last two years.
VendettaRed07
Member
He's running in Texas. It's a position to take that helps position himself or give him something to run on that's different but isn't necessary a "far left" policy.Term limits is an anti-corruption measure for stupid people.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I kind of wish Trump would make Cruz the Secretary of Indoor Plumbing or something just to open this seat up and give O'Rourke an actual shot at picking it up. I think Cruz is beatable just because he's so disliked but the incumbency advantage more than cancels that out.Beto is doing an AMA on reddit. Take aways
1) flat out supports single payer. Good for him
2) Refuses to take pac money. Also good and will help contrast him to Cruz
3) Term limits on congress. Don't agree with it but I guess it is another angle that could be a workable pitch to Texans that he's against the current "system" of corruption
4) will trek every inch of the state to try and unseat Cruz. Promises to not get outcampaigned/worked
I still don't think he has a shot but imo he's saying and doing everything he needs to be if he wanted to have even a remote chance
Term limits is an anti-corruption measure for stupid people.
I could see it being useful at a reasonable limit, 12 terms for House and 4 terms for Senate. 24 years is plenty of time to learn the ropes and be able to serve adequately. No real call for people to serve 30, 40, 50 years.
I mean, you can see it in the Democrats right now. Many of the politicians are more conservative than their base because they came from an outright different time.
Worst Dem parties.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
What states round out the 5 worst?
I feel like it's unfair to the Florida Democratic Party to even put other states in the same stratosphere.
I could see it being useful at a reasonable limit, 12 terms for House and 4 terms for Senate. 24 years is plenty of time to learn the ropes and be able to serve adequately. No real call for people to serve 30, 40, 50 years.
I mean, you can see it in the Democrats right now. Many of the politicians are more conservative than their base because they came from an outright different time.
That's an ideological issue, not an anti-corruption one. Every state that implements term limits has seen an increase in corruption. It doesn't do what it's proponents say it does, in fact it does the opposite.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I feel like it's unfair to the Florida Democratic Party to even put other states in the same stratosphere.
In the last gubernatorial election, the Wisconsin Democrats nominated a Madison School Board member.
At the state level, Ohio Democrats have vastly underperformed Indiana Democrats since at least the 1990s.
Just saying.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Evers doesn't officially run I'm going to be so sad.In the last gubernatorial election, the Wisconsin Democrats nominated a Madison School Board member. Just saying.
We've seen in the recent special election wins that running a message on education is a winning issue. Who better to push that than the state Super Nintendo?
VendettaRed07
Member
Sure but if you were to poll people on "does lack of term limits on congress lead to corruption", I'm positive like 85% of people would say yesThat's an ideological issue, not an anti-corruption one. Every state that implements term limits has seen an increase in corruption. It doesn't do what it's proponents say it does, in fact it does the opposite.
Sure but if you were to poll people on "does lack of term limits on congress lead to corruption", I'm positive like 85% of people would say yes
I know and that's what pisses me off about the whole thing. It's fairly obvious that term limits don't work and yet people think they do. Hence my comment "Term limits are an anti-corruption measure for stupid people."
theprodigy
Member
If Evers doesn't officially run I'm going to be so sad.
We've seen in the recent special election wins that running a message on education is a winning issue. Who better to push that than the state Super Nintendo?
uhh
interesting autocorrect
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I know and that's what pisses me off about the whole thing. It's fairly obvious that term limits don't work and yet people think they do. Hence my comment "Term limits are an anti-corruption measure for stupid people."
It's the perfect rule to ensure that more often a politician won't give a fuck.
uhh
interesting autocorrect
Super Nintendo Chalmers
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's not, just a silly Simpsons referenceuhh
interesting autocorrect
whyamihere
Banned
You know who has a good Dem party?
Kansas.
Kansas.
Autodidact
Banned
Worst Dem parties.
1. Florida
2. Wisconsin
3. Oklahoma
4. Oklahoma
5. Oklahoma
I feel like it's unfair to the Florida Democratic Party to even put other states in the same stratosphere.
Florida Democrats are supporting a Republican congressman who could be easily defeated next year for re-election. They're in a world of their own.
I wonder if instead of term limits, you could implement a system where incumbent politicians need to win a slightly larger margin of the vote each consecutive time they run.
There's some politicians who are beloved enough that they could garner 70% of the vote going into their sixth term, while you'd punish the partisan hacks who tread just a few points above their opponents.
There's some politicians who are beloved enough that they could garner 70% of the vote going into their sixth term, while you'd punish the partisan hacks who tread just a few points above their opponents.
This truly is the darkest timeline
Dinesh DSouza is in the West Wing today handing out copies of his new book, which compares Democrats to Nazis. He signed one for Trump.
Evers has filed the paperwork to run. He just hasn't declared yet.If Evers doesn't officially run I'm going to be so sad.
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