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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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N

nature boy

Member
DGzqOXWUwAAqk6e.jpg:large
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Mercer is funding a PAC against Flake.

Come on, AZ Dems, you can win both of these races. Kelli Ward running in a midterm without incumbency seems easy to beat.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
I mean, in regards to the *spoiler*, when someone can get populism and racism, why would they just take the populism?
Click to expand...

I mean, I hope Northam wins! Or else it's pretty frustrating for everyone else who saw Perriello as the better candidate than Northam. And the people of Virginia. But you do you boo.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Blader said:
I used to think this too, but he really does suck. He's completely dismantling the State Department and surrounding himself with an insular group of Trump sycophants who are blocking out the input of the career civil service officials who actually know what they're talking about.

I think at the end of the day, one of the least talked about stories with the most long-term consequences are going to be the gutting of the diplomatic corps under Tillerson's watch.
Click to expand...

I agree with this point completely, but is it on him? I thought he was frustrated with how long it was taking to get these people appointed, which is tacitly pointing the blame at the WH without saying it outright.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, I hope Northam wins! Or else it's pretty frustrating for everyone else who saw Perriello as the better candidate than Northam. And the people of Virginia. But you do you boo.
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My frustration here is that I don't see any evidence of "problems on the left" w/ the electorate. It's not showing up in the polling. Everything looks like 2013. This is good. Nothing to panic over.
Maxim726X said:
I agree with this point completely, but is it on him? I thought he was frustrated with how long it was taking to get these people appointed, which is tacitly pointing the blame at the WH without saying it outright.
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It's on him. He and the WH are deliberately leaving many positions unfilled to consolidate power at the WH. It's a tactic you see in dictatorships.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
My frustration here is that I don't see any evidence of "problems on the left" w/ the electorate. It's not showing up in the polling. Everything looks like 2013. This is good. Nothing to panic over.
Click to expand...

yes the Democratic candidate running behind the generic ballot by 5 points is nothing to worry about, everything is fine.

I hope Northam wins! High undecideds makes me nervous! Don't handwave high undecideds like it's October 2016.
 
C

chadskin

Member
The leader of the state Senate said Wednesday that he does not yet have the votes to approve a $3 billion incentive package to lure Foxconn Technology Group of Taiwan to southeastern Wisconsin and raised serious concerns about elements of the deal.
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Fitzgerald described a report issued this week by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, which found that state taxpayers would not recoup their investment in Foxconn until 2043, "striking."
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http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/...-taxpayers-recoup-foxconn-payments/551856001/

#winning
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
whyamihere said:
yes the Democratic candidate running behind the generic ballot by 5 points is nothing to worry about, everything is fine.

I hope Northam wins! High undecideds makes me nervous! Don't handwave high undecideds like it's October 2016.
Click to expand...

It's not October though, it's early August.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
yes the Democratic candidate running behind the generic ballot by 5 points is nothing to worry about, everything is fine.

I hope Northam wins! High undecideds makes me nervous! Don't handwave high undecideds like it's October 2016.
Click to expand...
They're not high for this point in a VA race.

If they're high in October 2017, that's a time to worry.

Mark Warner in '01 is the last time I can recall a Governor candidate being a super well-known name.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
They're not high for this point in a VA race.

If they're high in October 2017, that's a time to worry.
Click to expand...

I mean, again, you're handwaving an issue. I'm very concerned as to why the 5% of people who say they want to vote Dem but are undecided on Northam. And you don't think this is an issue! I want him to win, desperately, but I am very nervous, and saying "this is what happens in a Virginia race" isn't good enough. It is, until it isn't.

On a different subject than Everything Sunny All The Time Always, does anyone have a way to get around this paywall/post the article?

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/656391/hard-get-democrats-who-finally-said-yes

Aaron Strife said:
PPP North Carolina

Cooper 48/33 approval
Trump 44/50 approval
Burr 34/42 approval
Tillis 28/45 approval

Dems 46-40 on the generic ballot

By comparison, Bev Perdue was at 27/52 at this point in her governorship, while Pat McCrory was at 39/51.

Tillis joins Heller, Flake and Gardner as another GOP Senator with horrific approval ratings who's up in the next four years.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_NC_80917.pdf
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lol Tillis. HE IS STILL SUFFERING FROM 2014, IT'S SORT OF AMAZING.

I wish Trump's numbers were... lower.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Of all the words in the english language, fox and friends went with "strong" to describe trumps fire and fury tweet.

Seems to be the narrative the front page of fox news is going with as well.
 
B

Blader

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, there's lots of people who lose primaries who are better GE candidates.

Do we think that Lugar would've lost to Donnelly? Sarah Steelman lost to McCaskill?
Bernie to Trump?
Click to expand...

If they lose the primary, then they aren't a better GE candidate. If you can't consolidate your base in round 1, then how are you going to do it in round 2?

Maxim726X said:
I agree with this point completely, but is it on him? I thought he was frustrated with how long it was taking to get these people appointed, which is tacitly pointing the blame at the WH without saying it outright.
Click to expand...

Yes it's on him. The White House may be blocking a number of Tillerson's hiring choices, but Tillerson is the one reorganizing Foggy Bottom to concentrate all the policymaking into a select group of aides and marginalize the career civil servants there into irrelevance.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Blader said:
If they lose the primary, then they aren't a better GE candidate. If you can't consolidate your base in round 1, then how are you going to do it in round 2?
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Because your base will almost always come back to you in the GE. But you might not be able to win Independents. That was the whole issue with Akin and Mourdock!

Like, Mike Castle would've beaten Chris Coons in the GE, no problem. Then Christine O'Donnell won the primary. Primaries winners don't always produce better GE candidates.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
whyamihere said:
Because your base will almost always come back to you in the GE. But you might not be able to win Independents. That was the whole issue with Akin and Mourdock!

Like, Mike Castle would've beaten Chris Coons in the GE, no problem. Then Christine O'Donnell won the primary. Primaries winners don't always produce better GE candidates.
Click to expand...

A winning candidate is the type of candidate that's able to win their base, and also appeal to independents.

It's not a one or the other proposition. If you can't appeal to the base, but you can appeal to independents, perhaps you have an issue of trustworthiness with the base and might need to revisit as to why those factors exist.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Sirpopopop said:
A winning candidate is the type of candidate that's able to win their base, and also appeal to independents.

It's not a one or the other proposition. If you can't appeal to the base, but you can appeal to independents, perhaps you have an issue of trustworthiness with the base and might need to revisit as to why those factors exist.
Click to expand...

Do you think that:

Donnelly would've beaten Lugar
McCaskill would've beaten Steelman
Castle would've beaten Coons

If Manchin gets primaried, do you think that person would win?
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Box of Kittens said:
For the longest time, Dems won the State House more often than not (while getting crushed in the State Senate) and were able to force compromise maps. Then R's took the House in 2010 and the result was ridiculously gerrymandered maps to add to the existing R advantage. I don't see how we can overcome this unless SCOTUS strikes down partisan gerrymandering because even if we get the governorship (and I doubt we will in 2020) the legislature can override a gubernatorial veto with a simple majority vote.

The other thing notable about the 2016 map is Clinton only winning four counties. Of those four, Marion (Indianapolis), Monroe (Bloomington/Indiana University) and Lake (Gary/Northwest Indiana) would go Democratic under any circumstances. St. Joseph (South Bend/Notre Dame) is the only competitive Indiana county she pulled off.
Click to expand...

Here in Northwest Indiana, we are so different from many pockets of the state. I do believe that the closeness to Chicago and the history of the area, like manufacturing and unions gives us a different take on things that other Hoosiers. If I go into an hour east down US30 or south down i-65, it's like I'm in another fucking world.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
I'm not from Virginia nor do I live there so obv my opinon can only mean so much but I still wish those numbers were stronger. VA should be a lay-up this fall. It would be an embarrassment if the Dems couldn't win it in this climate and in that state (barring some huge unforeseen, unpredictable event that happens between now and election day).
 
K

kirblar

Member
Crocodile said:
I'm not from Virginia nor do I live there so obv my opinon can only mean so much but I still wish those numbers were stronger. VA should be a lay-up this fall. It would be an embarrassment if the Dems couldn't win it in this climate and in that state (barring some huge unforeseen, unpredictable event that happens between now and election day).
Click to expand...
Ya, my gripe is that we have one data point and a bunch incoming. If the Us are sticky, that's something to worry about, but we're at one data point, and it lines up with 2013.
whyamihere said:
PPP is Obama 49%, Trump 44%.
Click to expand...
Is this from a universe where we didn't get screwed by the 22nd amendment?
 
T

teiresias

Member
I don't really know why people expect blow-out numbers from VA. I mean it's like every other state with large metro areas that prop up the D candidates. Much of the west of the state is one bridge or mountain away from essentially being West Virginia.
 
K

kirblar

Member
teiresias said:
I don't really know why people expect blow-out numbers from VA. I mean it's like every other state with large metro areas that prop up the D candidates. Much of the west of the state is one bridge or mountain away from essentially being West Virginia.
Click to expand...
They're so large that the I lean to Gillespie is being overwritten.

That actually shocked me in the numbers.
 
R

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I think you guys might be imagining the weight loss. He looks about how he always does, just without the poorly fitting suit.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Maxim726X said:
So... Who would have thought that Tillerson would be his best cabinet appointee?

Low standards, for sure, but he actually doesn't suck at his job.
Click to expand...

His job is running the state department. He inherited a well-oiled machine and now the department is in shambles. He is not good at his job
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Blader said:
Yes it's on him. The White House may be blocking a number of Tillerson's hiring choices, but Tillerson is the one reorganizing Foggy Bottom to concentrate all the policymaking into a select group of aides and marginalize the career civil servants there into irrelevance.
Click to expand...

Huh, I wasn't aware. I rescind my backhanded compliment.
 
R

royalan

Member
sangreal said:
His job is running the state department. He inherited a well-oiled machine and now the department is in shambles. He is not good at his job
Click to expand...

Exactly. In fact, next to Sessions he might be the worst. He's just as lazy as Trump and the State Department (America's diplomatic arm) has been gutted and left to rot under him. Perfect timing for that!
 
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