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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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he's actually daring him to not act (on a military dimension)

Yes I think that's the idea here.

Basically idea I would think is if Trump threatens retaliation, then North Korea will too. If North Korea follows through on launching a missile to the waters near Guam. It'll be make or break for Trump. Either way the idea is for the US to back down. Launching the missile is probably the last thing they want to do, but it is a very high reward if they get the US to back down.

It is essentially a game of chicken.
 

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
DGyhyPDXcAIh8yk.jpg
 
3AM tweets are gonna be something.

It's insane that the military leaders, the house, and the senate allow him to continue to tweet.

I understand that the chain of command is important, but this is a mentally ill reality TV star who lost by 3 million votes even with help from Russia. They need to put their foot down.
 
Why do you believe this?

Why would you believe they couldn't?

They've continuously practiced missile tests and improved their missiles, this isn't Team America.

In fact they've already practiced for something extremely similar

Because building a missile that can carry a nuclear missile, launch it with accuracy, enter back into the atmosphere, and hit a target is difficult task. They've certainly improved their missiles, but they've had enough failures even recently that I'm suspicious if they'd actually be able to hit a target as small as Guam (which is like 120 square miles). Or that they'd be able to launch a successful nuclear missile.

No need to say something as dickish as "this isn't Team America."
 

Paches

Member
Every "outlandish" proclamation liberals made that Republicans scoffed at as nonsense during the election about Trump being a global foreign policy disaster are coming to pass.

I fear the worst.
 
But why, tho?

I was just trying to encourage discussion. This means a warrant was issued? What was presented for a judge to approve a warrant?
We have no idea what was presented for there to be a warrant but we know specifically that this was a "no-knock" warrant, which is highly unusual for white collar cases. They really did raid that home. They must have been convinced that any prior notice would have led to destruction of evidence.

Although, since this is about unlawful collusion with a foreign enemy government, I guess a raid is not out of the ordinary.
 
Remember when Trump was an isolationist and Hillary would have gotten us in a war within 6 months, guaranteed. She was a blood thirsty warmonger, and he was a simple racist who just wanted to build his wall.
 

pigeon

Banned
But why, tho?

I was just trying to encourage discussion. This means a warrant was issued? What was presented for a judge to approve a warrant?

If they knocked on his bedroom door apparently that means it was a no-knock.

Warrants are not typically that hard to get -- you need probable cause to search, which means probable cause that there is evidence of a crime at the location (not necessarily that the target of the warrant is responsible for the crime). But probable cause is a pretty low bar.

A good article on this: https://www.popehat.com/2017/08/09/...lawsplainer-for-a-search-warrant-lawsplainer/

If they got a warrant that explicitly authorized entering without knowing and coming early in the morning that probably means they argued he might destroy evidence if he knew they were coming. That certainly carries further implications.
 
This is exactly what scares me, but continue to say that everything is fine.

@PeterHamby
People who think Northam is just going to coast based on Trump's bad numbers haven't been watching Virginia politics closely last few years

@PeterHamby
Libertarians in recent statewides have never lived up to their poll numbers on election day

@PeterHamby
Virginia Rs outperform on E-day. Cuccinelli '13 & Gillespie '14 should have been huge warning signs for 2016 about polls and "hidden" voters

@PeterHamby
is the D base fully with Northam? Looks like they're with Ed, despite close call with Corey Stewart

@PeterHamby
also Dems are laughably under-utilizing digital in down-ballot races. Rs fixed that problem; dominated non-presidential digital spend in '16
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kim is daring Trump to act first.

This is make or break for Trump.

Perhaps. Kim Jong Il did this numerous times with President Bush. I guess I don't see how it's out of the ordinary.
whyamihere said:
@PeterHamby
also Dems are laughably under-utilizing digital in down-ballot races. Rs fixed that problem; dominated non-presidential digital spend in '16

This is completely inexcusable at this point. Get it together, dems.
 
This is unreal.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonar...onald-trump-is?utm_term=.qrB4GZkme#.hxGjqdRmY

But behind the mocking, there is growing fear among international governments that Trump is a serious threat to international peace and stability.

“He has no historical view. He is only dealing with these issues now, and seems to think the world started when he took office,” a diplomat told BuzzFeed News, pointing to Trump’s remarks and tweets about defence spending. “He thinks that NATO existed only to keep the communists out of Europe. He has a similar attitude in Asia-Pacific with Japan, ignoring that the US basically wrote their constitution.” During his presidential campaign, Trump called out Japan to pay more for the security US provides, including for hosting the US troops in the country. Japan’s constitution restricts its military options.

They also believe Trump’s foreign policy is chiefly driven by an obsession with unravelling Barack Obama’s policies. “It’s his only real position,” one European diplomat said. “He will ask: ‘Did Obama approve this?’ And if the answer is affirmative, he will say: ‘We don’t.’ He won’t even want to listen to the arguments or have a debate. He is obsessed with Obama.”

Another diplomat said it had proved impossible to discuss serious international issues, such as Libya, with Trump. And seven months into his presidency, the European officials say they are still struggling to figure out who else they can engage with in the US administration.

Describing a meeting between their boss and the president as “basically useless,” they said: “He [Trump] just bombed us with questions: ‘How many people do you have? What’s your GDP? How much oil does [that country] produce? How many barrels a day? How much of it is yours?’”

“He’s not the kind of person you can have a discussion about how to deal with [Fayez] al-Sarraj [the prime minister of Libya]," the official added. "So you look for people around him, and that is where it’s a problem: The constant upheaval, it’s unclear who has influence, who is close to the president."

A number of European officials compared Trump with Italian former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi – but said the similarities end at their inappropriate jokes during meetings.

“Berlusconi wasn’t ignorant. And behind him he had officials and a whole government structure you could engage with,” one diplomat said.

The officials revealed that at international meetings, Trump has openly mocked his own aides, contradicting and arguing with them in front of other leaders. That has compounded the impression of an administration in chaos. “We can hear everything, it’s weird,” one diplomat said.
 

Ogodei

Member
The problem with the VA race is voters might get it into their heads that there are no stakes, and then suddenly Virginia's another RRR state and all sorts of kooky stuff starts to go down.
 
The problem with the VA race is voters might get it into their heads that there are no stakes, and then suddenly Virginia's another RRR state and all sorts of kooky stuff starts to go down.

They're going to do everything in their power to try and shift VA back to a red state. If that means bankrupting NOVA or forcing people to move away due to terrible social issues, so be it.

If the Democrat loses in VA, VA is about to become a terrible state to live in and move to.
 

Crocodile

Member
The problem with the VA race is voters might get it into their heads that there are no stakes, and then suddenly Virginia's another RRR state and all sorts of kooky stuff starts to go down.

I feel at this point if you're a left/center-left voter, you have to have brain damage or have just woken up from a 2+ year coma the day before election day to not understand the stakes.
 

Kusagari

Member
Hey, I already said I have a bad feeling about that race!

I don't understand the fourth tweet, though. The Democratic base is leaning toward Gilespie?

Pretty sure he's saying the R base has already coalesced around Gillespie, despite the much tougher primary win.
 

Ogodei

Member
Speaking of the Northam campaign, anybody actually know anyone on there? I got laid off yesterday and have a month of severance before i start burning through savings. Have a few years of successful fundraising experience and database knowledge under my belt, might be time to do some good for once.
 
What would be the point of a governor, or an executive branch, without veto power?

I know NH has a weird council thingie (a technical term) that can challenge or reverse a governor's veto.
 
What would be the point of a governor, or an executive branch, without veto power?

I know NH has a weird council thingie (a technical term) that can challenge or reverse a governor's veto.

Usually puts more emphasis on split chambers. But otherwise, it's stupid.

Also, like, WV Gov has veto power, but you only need a 50+1 margin to override.
 

Crocodile

Member
I will say I do think its important that if Single-Payer (which again isn't the only way towards UHC) is the hill the Dems want to die on that they have a good workable plan that can actually get votes and not get the populace (especially those happy with their employer insurance) to riot put together before they reclaim power. They don't have to have everything worked out before they start campaigning and before the elections but by the start of a DDD federal government they better have ALL their ducks in a row. They won't have much time before the blowback starts and they can't waste 7 months like the GOP did shitting all over themselves pretending like they had a plan before being exposed as super huge liars.
 
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