Spoiled Milk
Banned
"wasted". You mean redirected under his watch to his and Devos' puppet masters.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Aren't they straight up pushing vouchers? There's a big difference between the two - Charters are a mixed bag, vouchers are straight up a way to get money funnelled to rich folks.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Vouchers, yes.
VendettaRed07
Member
Don't think anyone will run as an independent given how Trump worked out
Ether_Snake
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There definitely will be more focus on independents in 2020. Everything is moving in that direction.
Yep and they're just going to complicate things even more for Dems.
No it isn't. Don't look at what people call themselves, look at how people how voted previously. The crossover between republican and democrat is very low right now. The number of people who are truly 'independent' and not just republicans or democrats who don't like the label, is small and getting smaller.
Interestingly, the economist had an article a few weeks back where it outlined how trump won a second term - by zuckerberg running as an independent.
Oh good, fully expect her to go back on vacation during the next big one.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Trump way underwater in PA WI MI in new NBC / Marist poll
MI: 36% approve
PA: 35%
WI: 34%
Congressional generic:
MI: D+13
PA: D+10
WI: D+8
Has Donald Trumps behavior embarrassed you or made you proud:
MI: 64% embarrassed 28% proud
PA: 63%/25%
WI: 64%/25%
MI: 36% approve
PA: 35%
WI: 34%
Congressional generic:
MI: D+13
PA: D+10
WI: D+8
Has Donald Trumps behavior embarrassed you or made you proud:
MI: 64% embarrassed 28% proud
PA: 63%/25%
WI: 64%/25%
Box of Kittens
Banned
My guess is that the third party vote is low in 2020. I wouldn't even be surprised by 2004 levels (Bush and Kerry got 99% of the vote between them).
Edit: Thinking more about it, 2004 levels might be hard unless the nominee is, say, Pence because there weren't any significant factions of the Republicans that disliked Bush. Anti-anti-Trumpism could consolidate the Republican vote surprisingly well, but maybe not 2004 well.
Edit: Thinking more about it, 2004 levels might be hard unless the nominee is, say, Pence because there weren't any significant factions of the Republicans that disliked Bush. Anti-anti-Trumpism could consolidate the Republican vote surprisingly well, but maybe not 2004 well.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
At least they admit it.
Mighty Chin
Banned
Falwell Jr embarrassing himself on This Week.
But will they stand by their man over the alternative in 2018 and 2020? Probably, for many of them.
A good chunk of the electorate likes the abuse. It's sad.
Talked to my wife's aunt, after she discussed how terrible Trump is (even though she voted for him). She said her church group is committed to an anti-abortion republican ticket no matter what.
Yay single issue voters!
I think my mother is worse.
She knows jack shit about policy, but thinks Trump is smart and not a liar.
She has absolutely no idea how to handle the statistics and actual claims I call out the Orange Con Man for. An example...
"Trump's bringing back all of these coal jobs!"
"He's claimed to bring back 50,000, but he's lucky if he got 10,000. More people teach yoga than work in coal."
"B-but the stock market!"
"People are in record high states of insecurity. Who cares about a stock market when nearly half the people in the wealthiest nation on earth don't have emergency money?"
"But 1 million jobs!!!!"
"How many of those are not precarious jobs?"
There's always a pivot, but never an admittance. I imagine people like this will stay that way until they die, and while it is unfortunate to imagine progress coming at the literal death of people, holding views like this while being alive is a profound source of violence. It allows anti-intellectualism to blossom in a way that many of these people actually stand in the way of wellbeing towards others. If you get caught in empty employment numbers as an objective goal, you ignore all of the subjective problems that dawn from that experience, for example.
This isn't even getting into other issues like climate and education. My mother literally thinks things would be several degrees worse if Hillary Clinton was in office. All I can imagine with Hillary would be a slow fire to many problems we face, much like under Obama. That's much easier to accept seeing as we have an actual oil rig being detonated on a nearly weekly basis with this literal dumpster fire of an administration. A literal who's who of genuine incompetence.
RustyNails
Member
Is she an evangelical type? If so then you've wasted your time. For them the issue of abortion is the same as gun rights for NRA.
Why? It's easy to solve for. Just open all the primaries and get rid of caucuses and let the process play out. Closing the primaries and having caucuses to me just seems like we're asking for more bullshit.
Well the goal of caucuses and closed primaries is to have more people register with the party. I like that. But I do think semi-closed primaries are a good compromise where both party members and indies can vote.
Caucuses are dumb, I agree. Hopefully they go away but I doubt it.
The last thing Dems need is a distraction running on a lot of ideas that may inspire progressives that could blunt a lot of the momentum that a traditional Dem candidate would desperately need. The end goal is to stop Trump. Period. The most wishy washy of moderate Dems is still 1000x better than Trump. It sucks, but liberals can't be too picky after getting their clocks cleaned last year. And we can't have too much cult of personality or litmus tests or ohh I'm so progressive/anti establishment but I'm a better progressive than mainstream Dems blah blah. Or ohh I'm an outsider and going to run on a third party/Independent ticket even though I am just in the way and won't win shit. I am sorry but it's just not the time, elections have consequences and Dems need to stop the bleeding by any means necessary. Outsiders need to realize the extent of their influence and understand that unless they're on a ticket that ends in D or R (or in 2020's case, D) ultimately, they're just in the fucking way and potentially ceding more ground to the GOP/Trump which is a huge threat to democracy atm.
Of course, if Trump is still in office in 2020, for all we know by then the GOP could be so fed up with him they'll run someone establishment against Trump as an Independent or whatever.
I dunno. It could go so many different ways and it's hard to predict because we are in uncharted territory as of Nov. 8, but I would just strongly prefer to see a Democratic candidate everyone can get behind that knows how to campaign and won't have a distraction lingering until the end of the primary that could potentially turn away crucial Democratic votes. Every last vote will be vital, not only because of how much ground they have to make up but Trump and his boy Kobach are probably going to probably contest every favorable outcome for Dems in 2018 and 2020. Not to mention they're going to do every dirty rotten thing they can manage beforehand to make it as hard as possible for anyone with even the slightest urge to vote for Dems.
We can't have people like Zuck in the way.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Love it. Better than I hoped. Here's the thing, too: Unless these people are bribed by tax rebates, there's not really much else he can do to bring them back. He's not giving them health care. He's not getting infrastructure done. He's not bringing in new jobs for these people. I'm not sure how these numbers can get better unless he completely turns around and tries to push for Medicare for everyone, etc., which he most likely won't.
The poll was registered voters, though.
Lol no matter what he was never going to give them healthcare. He wasn't going to give them a god damn thing. He was going to at best give them ACA lite with premiums skyrocketing even faster, at worst wreck the entire health care industry and make their insurance situation a zillion times worse.
Both are still possible imo, especially him letting the markets collapse somehow, some way via HHS
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Oh, I know--just hitting on the points he emphasized during the election. He promised all of these, and he's not giving them any. Easy pickings for advertisements. Show them how he was all talk and did nothing for them.
There are still 15 months until the 2018 elections. Can't wait to see how many republicans start jumping ship with these numbers tanking. We're probably going to see frequent attempts at distancing themselves from him, even attacking him, from GOP candidates.
Caucuses are a good idea (fewer wasted votes and it's a dialogue rather than a mere tallying of scores), but the effort barrier to entry makes it less democratic because fewer people are willing to participate to that degree than to just cast a ballot.
With higher levels of participation it's a better form of voting, imo.
With higher levels of participation it's a better form of voting, imo.
Yep, the votes and numerous statements and next level flip flopping are all on the record and I really hope that pays off in 2018 and gives them the momentum they need to win big in 2020.
But sadly to many voters politics is just bloodsport and they're willing to basically kill themselves over getting their health coverage eviscerated if that means they can finally stick it to the black man who, in their eyes, had no business ever stepping into the oval office and passing something big that helps people. It's really depressing.
It's rare that I see a post from you that I totally agree with, but I totally agree with this.
Basileus777
Member
As long as IA and NH continue to feel like special snowfakes and refuse to buck "tradition" in going first its not going to happen anytime soon.
It's probably not, I agree. But caucuses are obsolete and stupid and have no place in today's politics. HOPEFULLY Dems will come to their senses on this.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Have faith, though. The tides are turning a bit and 2018 is, at least at this point, setting up to be a blue wave (including governors, which is huge for redistricting) if gerrymandering and voter suppression can be overcome. Also, 2020 is setting up to be a disaster for the GOP unless democrats shoot themselves in the foot by nominating a terrible candidate.
HanShotFirst
Member
It makes sense. FiveThirtyEight has his approval up slightly over the past week, but his disapproval is up as well.
metalslimer
Member
The majority of Trump supporters are virulent racists, no shocker there.
The sick irony is even if GOP Govs lose big and the Dems make impressive gains in the House (or maybe even win it back), I can't see how the Senate is in reach. That wouldn't suck so much if Kennedy, Ginsburg and Breyer weren't all getting really old. It's very possible one, two or maybe even all three die/step down before 2020 and then Trump can nominate another Scalia (or two, or three) and get him confirmed. That lasts a lifetime, and it sucks.
On the other hand more Dem Govs kills the very real possibility of GOP constitutional conventions which is absolutely terrifying, so that is a huge plus.
Of course a mega conservative SCOTUS is really going to handicap progressive (and really just common sense) politics and policy for a generation or more, as if it wasn't bad enough. It's gonna make things from UHC to gun control to discrimination to employer rights to sensible voting rights a non-starter even with a Dem supermajority someday. Nationally speaking, Dems will be forced to govern on extremely watered down policies...
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
also, was listening to Axe's interview of Rahm (which was entertaining and kind of sad) and Rahm had a really good point: where are all the retirements? Not enough manufactured open seats, yet.
Ironically, this congress' complete failure to pass legislation may dissuade GOP pols from retiring because they've spent their entire careers since 2010 doing absolutely nothing. At least in 2006 and 2010, the GOP and Dems respectively could have pointed to significant "achievements" they passed on behalf of their party/president.
Ironically, this congress' complete failure to pass legislation may dissuade GOP pols from retiring because they've spent their entire careers since 2010 doing absolutely nothing. At least in 2006 and 2010, the GOP and Dems respectively could have pointed to significant "achievements" they passed on behalf of their party/president.
BlastProcessing
Member
That cant be real.
But it would be a good example of minorities taking the jobs white people dont want to do.
Enough to keep the race competitive in the general?
Good primary challengers would then lack incumbency advantage and you end up in a situation similar to Indiana in 2012, and Nevada and Arizona are a hell of a lot better for Dems than Indiana.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
I think you are overestimating Trump here.
BoboBrazil
Member
He definitely will.
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