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[RumbleHumble]

I forgot about all the war on stem cells. Man the GOP picks the dumbest shit to rally against.

I think I almost preferred the stem cell bullshit. At least that wasn't nakedly about racism. Just crazy religious insanity. (Yes, I know, redundant)

 

[RumbleHumble]

Someone did a national poll on the issue and there's not even one state with majority agreement with the trans ban. Not only that but it severely disarms one of the biggest justifications liberals had for supporting or at least being indifferent to Trump, "well at least he's not as bad as other Republicans on LGBT rights." Oh yes, he is.

In fact, that's often what's brought up when people talk about impeaching Trump and having Pence take his place. At this point, what's the difference?

I thought aides stated part of the reason he was all gung-ho about the trans-ban was to appease Pence because Pence was worried we weren't doing enough to discriminate against LGBT

 

[Aaron Strife]

I thought aides stated part of the reason he was all gung-ho about the trans-ban was to appease Pence because Pence was worried we weren't doing enough to discriminate against LGBT

There was a movement in the House to strip medical funding for trans soldiers that failed. Trump couldn't understand the nuance of it because he's a fucking incompetent buffoon so he just wanted to ban trans soldiers period to take it off the table. I don't know where Pence came into all this.

 

[Sirpopopop]

I think I almost preferred the stem cell bullshit. At least that wasn't nakedly about racism. Just crazy religious insanity. (Yes, I know, redundant)

Definitely preferred the stem cell bullshit.

 

[RumbleHumble]

There was a movement in the House to strip medical funding for trans soldiers that failed. Trump couldn't understand the nuance of it because he's a fucking incompetent buffoon so he just wanted to ban trans soldiers period to take it off the table. I don't know where Pence came into all this.

From this:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-bows-to-religious-right-bans-trans-troops

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

From a bit earlier, but Bush won re-election on terror threat fears, a bubbling economy and the still-optimistic hunt for WMD unicorns.

We had regular vague national terror threat announcements throughout his first term that literally disappeared after the 2004 election.

Also by slandering and mocking a war hero.

 

[whyamihere]

I think have a less-than-50% chance to take the House but I do think they'll hold most of their seats in the senate and run train on the gubernatorial elections, which are super important.

 

[AndyD]

Oh boy, Harvey is now a hurricane.

Get ready for this figurative and literal shit storm.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/24/playbook-andy-hemming-white-house-donald-trump-241970

Getting our before he can be blamed for the Administration bungling the response.

 

[NoName999]

So I have a question.

There's this narrative going around saying "Democrats will lose 2018/20 if they keep mentioning Russia"

So uhhhh which one of the major Democrats are constantly mentioning Russia?

As far as I know, they've been relatively quiet about it.

 

[Zolo]

So I have a question.

There's this narrative going around saying "Democrats will lose 2018/20 if they keep mentioning Russia"

So uhhhh which one of the major Democrats are constantly mentioning Russia?

As far as I know, they've been relatively quiet about it.

None of them really.

 

[kirblar]

So I have a question.

There's this narrative going around saying "Democrats will lose 2018/20 if they keep mentioning Russia"

So uhhhh which one of the major Democrats are constantly mentioning Russia?

As far as I know, they've been relatively quiet about it.

It's because they see it on the news and assume that's the narrative the Dems are pushing because that's what the GOP does with Faux News.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

It was weird how people in the WH thought that would be some big issue for Democrats to own. I think even most Republicans fall under 'I think anyone should be allowed to serve'.

It keeps the discussion away from how badly run the White House is.

It's actually brilliant.

Suddenly, people are discussing Trans people (who don't have the huge popular support that gay people now do) and debating the merits and making cases and whatnot.

Trump is good at a sort of media-Gish-Gallop.

See also-- defending statues of Washington, deflecting from the rice of white supremacy and his own failure to condemn it.

 

[Wilsongt]

It's because they see it on the news and assume that's the narrative the Dems are pushing because that's what the GOP does with Faux News.

FAIRY FAKE NEWS GEORGE SOROS GLOBALIST PARENTS

 

[Random Human]

It keeps the discussion away from how badly run the White House is.

It's actually brilliant.

Suddenly, people are discussing Trans people (who don't have the huge popular support that gay people now do) and debating the merits and making cases and whatnot.

Trump is good at a sort of media-Gish-Gallop.

See also-- defending statues of Washington, deflecting from the rice of white supremacy and his own failure to condemn it.

I'm not sure this idea is true anymore. While he may change the stories for a few days, they inevitably come back strong as ever, and meanwhile he's steadily bleeding support.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I'm not sure this idea is true anymore. While he may change the stories for a few days, they inevitably come back strong as ever, and meanwhile he's steadily bleeding support.

Well, he's played out the strategy so it's not as effective. But it keeps the narrative off Russia, the debt ceiling, etc. I think more people see through it and the old stuff lingers more as time goes on.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Quinnipiac has Democrats up 12 on the House generic ballot, 50-38. Pretty in line with what PPP reported the other day, 49-35.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Well, he's played out the strategy so it's not as effective. But it keeps the narrative off Russia, the debt ceiling, etc. I think more people see through it and the old stuff lingers more as time goes on.

Rachel and Lawrence are like the #1 and #2 cable news shows, and some nights the top two shows on all of cable, period. WaPo and NYT subs are at a record high; possibly the New Yorker too. Russia and Trump's incompetence aren't slipping out of the spotlight.

 

[Suikoguy]

I'm not sure this idea is true anymore. While he may change the stories for a few days, they inevitably come back strong as ever, and meanwhile he's steadily bleeding support.

Plus, there was this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...nder-military-service/?utm_term=.b61cdc94f0b5

 

[Aaron Strife]

Suggesting that Trump is a master at playing the media game is pretty at odds with his approval ratings deteriorating. Him talking about the trans ban doesn't make people forget about Russia or Charlottesville, it just adds to the growing list of things people hate about him.

He's trying to play the trans ban as a win because he has no other moves.

 

[Fenderputty]

Suggesting that Trump is a master at playing the media game is pretty at odds with his approval ratings deteriorating. Him talking about the trans ban doesn't make people forget about Russia or Charlottesville, it just adds to the growing list of things people hate about him.

He's trying to play the trans ban as a win because he has no other moves.

He's still playing the media for his base. It's just that in doing so, he slowly turning other's off that once gave him a shot.

Him playing the media for his base is one of the reasons the GOP isn't functional at governance currently too. It's also helping drive that wedge between him and McConnell / the senate deeper.

 

[Aaron Strife]

He's still playing the media for his base. It's just that in doing so, he slowly turning other's off that once gave him a shot.

Him playing the media for his base is one of the reasons the GOP isn't functional at governance currently too. It's also helping drive that wedge between him and McConnell / the senate deeper.

I mean, that's true, but his base is also shrinking. Nate pointed this out a while ago. People go from strongly approving of him to more tepid approval to straight-up disapproval.

 

[Joe]

1) Ann Coulter retweets an outright white-supremacist

2) Donald Trump follows Ann Coulter

3) Donald Trump gets white-supremacy propaganda in his timeline

https://mobile.twitter.com/Green_Footballs/status/900828677427970048

(This is the person that spotted it not the white-supremacist)

 

[Fenderputty]

I mean, that's true, but his base is also shrinking. Nate pointed this out a while ago. People go from strongly approving of him to more tepid approval to straight-up disapproval.

Promise the world and deliver a small pebble and that will happen lol.

IMO his recent flip flops were intentional too. Give the mainstream something one day and the next day give his base something to quell their fears. It's just it's only working on the racists lol

Curious if he continues to slide in the polls more, will we see an increase of his blatant pandering?

 

[BobTheFork]

Even if his base shrinks and his most loyal people turn on him. They will just sit and wait for the next asshole who is exactly like him but capable of not constantly muckspreading their incompetence on the floor.

 

[Prof. Bathtub]

I will say that it feels reporters/commentators are much less patient since "On many sides", yet they're still willing to word headlines in a hopeful way if he speaks legibly. At the moment, there's no vacations, clear tax strategies, or big crises beyond possible storms. Feels like they should release further info/questions about the collusion, since it won't step on the toes of many other stories. Despite one's thoughts on the coverage, it is the one thing that reliably causes alienating outbursts.

And of course, Kelly the wise has still not stomped out the nazi cockroach that is Gorka. Feels like somebody should pressure them about that too.

 

[Ithil]

I wonder if Trump will go golfing at the weekend while this hurricane is tearing up Texas.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

From a bit earlier, but Bush won re-election on terror threat fears, a bubbling economy and the still-optimistic hunt for WMD unicorns.

We had regular vague national terror threat announcements throughout his first term that literally disappeared after the 2004 election.

Also by slandering and mocking a war hero.

But his swiftboats

 

[B-Dubs]

I wonder if Trump will go golfing at the weekend while this hurricane is tearing up Texas.

If he doesn't expect to hear rumors about a temper tantrum.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Just lock all Sanders/Hillary related threads in OT.

 

[Joe]

People no longer identifying as Republican during Trump's presidency may be artificially inflating Republican approval numbers.

NYT: Why Trump's Base of Support May Be Smaller Than It Seems (July 2017)

Even the most recent Russia revelations seemingly haven't dented support for Mr. Trump among Republicans, who continue to approve of his job performance at very high rates — 82 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday, for instance.

But numbers like these may mask a decline in support for Mr. Trump among his original party base.

A new working paper by the Emory University political scientists B. Pablo Montagnes, Zachary Peskowitz and Joshua McCrain argues that people who identify as Republican may stop doing so if they disapprove of Trump, creating a false stability in his partisan approval numbers even as the absolute number of people approving him shrinks. Gallup data supports this idea, showing a four-percentage-point decline in G.O.P. identification since the 2016 election that is mirrored in other polling, though to a lesser extent.

 

[B-Dubs]

People no longer identifying as Republican during Trump's presidency may be artificially inflating Republican approval numbers.

NYT: Why Trump’s Base of Support May Be Smaller Than It Seems (July 2017)

So the same shit we saw during the Bush administration.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I Should have said it was brilliant given limited options. It's losing, but stems the bleeding.

 

[Zolo]

So the same shit we saw during the Bush administration.

It's important to remember the largest self-identification right now is 'independent' even if a subset of that category reliably votes Republican.

 

[Hooligan69]

Obscene gerrymandering.

And complacent voters, if you can call them that, who can't be bothered to fucking do anything remotely close to showing up to vote. That's why I'm not holding my breath for '18 nor '20. Too many examples of, "see, government doesn't work, might as well not vote.", all brought to you by the GOP.

 

[Fenderputty]

People no longer identifying as Republican during Trump's presidency may be artificially inflating Republican approval numbers.

NYT: Why Trump’s Base of Support May Be Smaller Than It Seems (July 2017)

I feel like this would be fairly marginal?

 

[Joe]

Obscene gerrymandering.

And complacent voters, if you can call them that, who can't be bothered to fucking do anything remotely close to showing up to vote. That's why I'm not holding my breath for '18 nor '20. Too many examples of, "see, government doesn't work, might as well not vote.", all brought to you by the GOP.

And a pro-GOP "bias" in the Congressional map as more Democrats live in large cities and more Republicans dispersed among rural areas.

FiveThirtyEight | The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats

In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York — states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states — think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia — that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.

 

[whyamihere]

Quinnipiac has Democrats up 12 on the House generic ballot, 50-38. Pretty in line with what PPP reported the other day, 49-35.

Depends on if Republicans come home for the margin. I *think* they will, but, ¯_(&#12484_/¯

And a pro-GOP "bias" in the Congressional map as more Democrats live in large cities and more Republicans dispersed among rural areas.

FiveThirtyEight | The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats

This is also not true. It's super easy to make a non-partisan map like CA and AZ that reflects the general voting pattern of the state. There can be some quirks here and there, but it has nothing to do with geography.

 

[Joe]

I feel like this would be fairly marginal?

Yeah it's definitely possible. I haven't read the sourced paper (.pdf) though.

 

[whyamihere]

Like obviously Democrats have a huge problem in the senate if they can't start winning smaller, whiter states, but that has nothing to do with the House, where geography means jack towards the Republican advantage.

 

[Aaron Strife]

And complacent voters, if you can call them that, who can't be bothered to fucking do anything remotely close to showing up to vote. That's why I'm not holding my breath for '18 nor '20. Too many examples of, "see, government doesn't work, might as well not vote.", all brought to you by the GOP.

Didn't happen in 06. The incumbent party not being punished for royally fucking up would be fairly unprecedented.

Like by all means, don't be complacent, but don't start throwing pity parties either. We've got an election to win.

 

[Greigor The Fellhand]

schiff todfay said important claims stated by the steele dossier are backed up by public knowledge on msnbc

 

[jtb]

The House can break very late. I'm not too worried yet. Things are going to get worse for Trump before they get better. Much worse.

The Senate is cyclical. I have less concerns about the Senate, given Democrats controlled it for 8 years - throughout the politics of racial resentment during Obama's tenure. This is just a really bad map because it's completely maxed out. If we dodge a bullet in 2018 and lose no net seats, we're set up for huge gains in 2020.

 

[chadskin]

As CIA director, Mike Pompeo has taken a special interest in an agency unit that is closely tied to the investigation into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign, requiring the Counterintelligence Mission Center to report directly to him.

Officials at the center have, in turn, kept a watchful eye on Pompeo, who has repeatedly played down Russia’s interference in the 2016 election and demonstrated a willingness to engage in political skirmishes for President Trump.

Current and former officials said that the arrangement has been a source of apprehension among the CIA’s upper ranks and that they could not recall a time in the agency’s history when a director faced a comparable conflict.

The unit helped trigger the investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia by serving as a conduit to the FBI last year for information the CIA developed on contacts between Russian individuals and Trump campaign associates, officials said.

The center works more closely with the FBI than almost any other CIA department does, officials said, and continues to pursue leads on Moscow’s election interference operation that could factor in the probe led by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, a former FBI director.

Pompeo has not impeded that work, officials said. But several officials said there is concern about what he might do if the CIA uncovered new information potentially damaging to Trump and Pompeo were forced to choose between protecting the agency or the president.

“People have to watch him,” said a U.S. official who, like others, requested anonymity to speak frankly. “It’s almost as if he can’t resist the impulse to be political.”

A second former CIA official cited a “real concern for interference and politicization,” saying that the worry among some at the agency is “that if you were passing on something too dicey [to Pompeo] he would go to the White House with it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c1d716-7ed0-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html

 

[Fenderputty]

schiff todfay said important claims stated by the steele dossier are backed up by public knowledge on msnbc

I want to know if un-public knowledge is confirming the dossier. If the knowledge us public, then it isn't enough to mean shit yet.

 

[aspiegamer]

TexasGAF-- How's your local emergency planning been? Whatever help from the state and feds that isn't there by tomorrow afternoon is going to have a hard time getting in for 3-4 days. Just be careful, please. I'm actually comforted by how qualified the FEMA director seems to be, but he can't cure everything alone without additional support.

 

[jtb]

also Dave Wasserman has this bizarre fetish for downplaying GOP gerrymandering. I don't really get it, other than him burnishing his "both sides" "non-partisan" bona fides.

 

[Ogodei]

I think have a less-than-50% chance to take the House but I do think they'll hold most of their seats in the senate and run train on the gubernatorial elections, which are super important.

Will they?

I'm worried about candidate selection in all of the states that should be slam dunks: Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

New Jersey's a lock, Maine's quite possible if Collins doesn't decide to back out, not too worried about Pennsylvania being retained. Ohio, i just don't have the faith in their Democratic party.

Nevada's a good bet too, depending on how well Sandoval goes to bat for his successor.

 

[Aaron Strife]

also Dave Wasserman has this bizarre fetish for downplaying GOP gerrymandering. I don't really get it, other than him burnishing his "both sides" "non-partisan" bona fides.

Acknowledging that one side has an ill-earned advantage in an election is an uncomfortable truth for some to swallow. It basically exposes our system as horribly imperfect. Easier to pretend it's not a problem.

It is true to some degree that the Democratic vote being so packed in the cities hurts our odds, but that on its own is far from enough to justify the GOP's overextended majority. That's the difference between say, Democrats needing to win the generic ballot by 2 versus by 10. When you have analysts saying "yeah, Democrats need to win by 13 points to scrape 218" that goes well beyond simple geography.

 

[whyamihere]

Will they?

I'm worried about candidate selection in all of the states that should be slam dunks: Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

New Jersey's a lock, Maine's quite possible if Collins doesn't decide to back out, not too worried about Pennsylvania being retained. Ohio, i just don't have the faith in their Democratic party.

Nevada's a good bet too, depending on how well Sandoval goes to bat for his successor.

We have our top recruits in Wisconsin and Michigan now. Illinois's partisan bent can overcome incumbency easy (see: Sen. Kirk, Mark). Ohio is about to get their star recruit.

I get the worry, and I'm not expecting Democrats to win every open seat, but like, I wonder if a lot of this stuff comes from just being used to losing so often. Republicans are waaaaay overextended in governorships right now.

 

[Piecake]

CHICAGO — Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner has shaken up his staff yet again, clearing out his communications team less than six weeks after they were hired.

Last month, Rauner abruptly fired several longtime staffers, saying he wanted to build “the best team in America.” On Wednesday evening, the new hires in the communications office were let go.

The latest turnover comes just days after staffers on the communications team said that, “as a white male,” the governor had nothing more to add to a debate over a political cartoon that critics had called racist. The cartoon, which showed a black Chicago public school student begging for money from a portly white man with a cigar, was created by a conservative think tank — the Illinois Policy Institute — that has deep ties to the administration. Three of the four staffers who tendered resignations had come to the administration from that same think tank.

One source close to the governor, said Rauner, who was out of town when the response was released, “blew a gasket” when he found out about his staff's response.

“That email was sent — I did not have knowledge of it. I did not approve it,” Rauner said Thursday of the “white male” statement.

The cartoon was a commentary on the state's tax-financing system for schools, and the staff upheaval comes as the legislature is set to take up a critical vote next week in an attempt to override the governor’s amendatory veto of a massive education funding bill.

Rauner, considered one of the most vulnerable incumbent governors in the country, has been beset by negative headlines and missteps since his staffing overhaul last month.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/...staff-after-response-to-racial-cartoon-242002