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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Brown as VP is a huge waste, he needs to either be the leading man or not on the ticket.

pigeon said:
Hirono is unfortunately probably too sick to run, but I think you might be underselling Schatz here. We'll see.
Click to expand...
Has Schatz been trying to set himself up for a run though? I wouldn't have included Merkley until I discovered he's been making trips to Iowa and changing his wikipedia photo to look less like a dork.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Brown as VP is a huge waste, he needs to either be the leading man or not on the ticket.

Has Schatz been trying to set himself up for a run though? I wouldn't have included Merkley until I discovered he's been making trips to Iowa and changing his wikipedia photo to look less like a dork.
Click to expand...

There were some things recently that made me question his intentions, but I can't remember them now. I'll keep an eye out.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Is Brown supposed to the be the last hurrah chance attempt at OH before it becomes completely out of reach?
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Judging by the snapback in the special elections, I don't think Iowa or Ohio are completely out of reach for 2020. Trump exacerbated a trend that was already there, but a solid candidate who can appeal to the Midwest (e.g. OBAMA) can win them back for the time being.

Like Obama said, it's important to get out to rural and exurban communities you have no chance of winning because losing those counties by 20 versus losing them by 50 can make all the difference. Clinton's problem was she assumed she could win by goosing up urban turnout as much as possible and flipping suburban votes, neither of which played out as well as she hoped.

The conventional wisdom/Republican theory is that Obama won on the backs of Madison, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia etc. liberals supporting him (as evidenced by Romney's passive-aggressive concession call) but in reality that's only one piece of the puzzle. Obama visited small town factories, farming communities, etc. all the time. He certainly didn't win them, but he won enough of them while Republicans ignored those voters because they figured they were in the bag. Likewise, Clinton wrote them off completely and let Trump capitalize on their "economic anxiety."
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
kirblar said:
Booker is obviously running in 2020.

Booker is scary (not in a good way) because he has a terrible track record, both lefties and center-left people aren't really big fans, and is from f'ing NEW JERSEY.

On the positive side: He is charismatic.

The hope is that the latter isn't enough to make up for the former.

Are they playing inside baseball literally inside the baseball?
Click to expand...

Hey, New Jersey is great!
 
M

Mobius and pet octopus

Member
ESPN would face a shit storm I think if they fired her. And fuck those political hacks who want to pressure ESPN into firing her, they should be the people fired. It's not actual government censorship but it comes scarily close considering the rhetoric about the "evil news media" and "fake news" bullshit.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Any 2020 speculation is leaving out the obvious dark horse

Gov. Joaquin Castro (D-TX)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/tex...ering-running-governor-republican-greg-abbott

He probably isn't going to win, but it's important that we get a good gubernatorial candidate here. Galvanizing turnout, gaining any political power in Texas is important. We can't rely on presidential campaigns flipping states blue like that's enough, as many progressives did during the Obama years especially with states like Virginia and North Carolina.

Imagine being able to win the Texas House before the next round of redistricting, for example - that would be such a massive coup, and we came very close to pulling it off in 2008 (Obama lost by 12 points, and yet Democrats still fought their way to a 76-74 minority).
 
P

pigeon

Banned
studyguy said:
ESPN almost bowing to pressure from the WH is pretty fucking concerning.
I'd wonder what kind of shit would fall out of the legal wagon if they actually had pulled the trigger. Seems like a big fucking deal.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/908441860191944706
Click to expand...

To be clear: they didn't decide to back her. They decided that replacing her and her co-host with white people would be worse publicity than just letting her do the show, and they couldn't find any black people who would take the job.
 
S

studyguy

Member
There's this town called Bishop near mammoth mountain in California.
Schatz Bakery is literally the best bread I've ever tasted.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Wow.

Equifax lobbiest were supposedly trying to broker for more lax regulations on the day they went public with the hack...

Too bad white collar crimes don't get punished anymore.

Thanks, Enron.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Fenderputty said:
Yeah it's amazing. I don't go up the 395 often but we stop by there every time.
Click to expand...

It's fucking legit right, I went to it for the first time this past year and was blown away. Took a big loaf of monkey bread and some assorted other stuff. They had like 3 turkeys being cooked in the back fresh for turkey sandwhiches during like Febuary too, it was wild.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
studyguy said:
It's fucking legit right, I went to it for the first time this past year and was blown away. Took a big loaf of monkey bread and some assorted other stuff. They had like 3 turkeys being cooked in the back fresh for turkey sandwhiches during like Febuary too, it was wild.
Click to expand...

I usually get some of the jalapeno cheese bread and sourdough. Always grab a sandwich while there. It's so random and in the middle of nowhere. Bishop is basically BFE.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Fenderputty said:
I usually get some of the jalapeno cheese bread and sourdough. Always grab a sandwich while there. It's so random and in the middle of nowhere. Bishop is basically BFE.
Click to expand...

Mind you Schatz family seems to basically own Bishop.
They have everything from Schatz Bakery, Schatz Laundry down to Schatz DSL on the mainstreet. Like 8-9 different companies on one street alone under the name Schatz
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
studyguy said:
Mind you Schatz family seems to basically own Bishop.
They have everything from Schatz Bakery, Schatz Laundry down to Schatz DSL on the mainstreet. Like 8-9 different companies on one street alone under the name Schatz
Click to expand...

I did not know that. It's a really pretty area of California. We will do fishing and hunting trips up there.
 
T

Teggy

Member
How did we get to the point where a person like this can get elected to congress?

DJteYwNW0AAABfC
Click to expand...
 
V

Vimes

Member
Tooth and Tail just came out and y'all burying my boy Andy.

I go to the Schatz's in Mammoth, nothing like a roast beef sandwich in the middle of a day hike.

Edit: By the way, Brian Schatz was really impressive on Pod Save the People a few months ago. I gather that local politics in Hawai'i are kinda fucked, but they seem to send good people to DC.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
kirblar said:
Are they playing inside baseball literally inside the baseball?
Click to expand...

I don't have any problem with Obama (or Clinton) camp members consolidating behind a candidate. I just don't buy the idea that Patrick is a good candidate nationally, or can win. If that's the guy you want against Booker and Harris...good luck. It's also a weird pick that seems more Clinton-esque than Obama-esque, at least to me personally. Patrick (presumably) running as the grounded technocrat who has Done It Before, against what I expect to be far more idealistic campaigns from Booker and Harris. I like the idea of Patrick being in the field, he's a good debater and good man...I just don't think he warrants the type of push he seems to be getting, so early. Maybe he proves me wrong in the next couple years.

Personally I don't trust Booker, especially with hackers revealing personal information on a monthly basis, but I think he's going to be very strong and an early frontrunner. I'm not sure Harris can win the south, whereas I can see Booker doing it pretty easily. If I could give someone a magic potion to make them win, it would be Sherrod Brown. He checks all the boxes that seem to be important right now, except that he's probably not charismatic enough. But as I said, if he can be that defacto white guy maybe he can last long enough.

I'd bet on Booker, Harris, and Warren having the most money. Silicon Valley, California, Boston. IMO Harris is the best politician of the three, Warren is the worst. But if one of them is a unicorn who can simply glide through shit, it's Booker.
 
K

kirblar

Member
I have no problem with people coalscing behind a candidate either, it's just that jumping behind one that literally went to work for Bain Capital is insane to me like you've learned absolutely zero lessons from the Clinton campaign.

Like, here are a few based on '08 and '16.

a) Generally, you want to have dodged the Iraq war vote and debate
b) You really want to have dodged '90s politics if possible because you'll get Midwesterners will hate NAFTA on one end and on the other you have people angry about the '90s crime bill
c) Don't do things that you would normally only do if you were not intending to run for office in the near future..

A & B get solved by running younger candidates, which Patrick passes, but he fails C really badly here!
 
J

jtb

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Any 2020 speculation is leaving out the obvious dark horse

Gov. Joaquin Castro (D-TX)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/tex...ering-running-governor-republican-greg-abbott

He probably isn't going to win, but it's important that we get a good gubernatorial candidate here. Galvanizing turnout, gaining any political power in Texas is important. We can't rely on presidential campaigns flipping states blue like that's enough, as many progressives did during the Obama years especially with states like Virginia and North Carolina.

Imagine being able to win the Texas House before the next round of redistricting, for example - that would be such a massive coup, and we came very close to pulling it off in 2008 (Obama lost by 12 points, and yet Democrats still fought their way to a 76-74 minority).
Click to expand...

If Joaquin runs in 2020, it will endanger Julian's chances at 2020 tho
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Dubbedinenglish said:
Folks still sleepin on Franken
Click to expand...
Franken's not running. I'm even willing to do an avatar bet over that.

I think Klobuchar will run and Franken will defer to her if he's even interested.

kirblar said:
This piece on "generational scarring" is well worth reading: http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/09/single-payer-generational-expectations

My first elections that I was really aware of were '00 and '04. Hell of an entry into politics.
Click to expand...
Millennials were hella spoiled by Obama's victory, both in the primary and the general election. Not only that but a lot of them had very skewed impressions about how the 08 primary went down.

"Well Obama came out of nowhere too!"

No he didn't.

"They said Hillary was inevitable in 08 too!"

No they didn't.

"Obama creamed Hillary in a landslide!"

Nope.

"America would never elect a Republican president!"

Clearly.
 
J

jtb

Banned
A little surprised Gillibrand came out really hard on PSA that "Medicare for All" is really just a glorified public option - but with the (major!) caveat that single payer has to be the end goal. I've long suspected that was her definition of the term, but was a little surprised to see her actually just come out and say it on the heels of this bill.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
The Technomancer said:
Yup 2010 was the year that sort of taught me despair.
Click to expand...
Same here, too bad no one gives a shit about midterms otherwise the lesson about "hey progressives don't assume you have this in the bag get off your ass and vote and volunteer" would be well-learned.

My BernieBro friend is from Michigan, a state that's been ravaged by full Republican control since 2010, and I still don't think he cares. His current thing is not wanting Kamala Harris as president. Like dude, I love you, but shut up and focus on 2018.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
My BernieBro friend is from Michigan, a state that's been ravaged by full Republican control since 2010, and I still don't think he cares. His current thing is not wanting Kamala Harris as president. Like dude, I love you, but shut up and focus on 2018.
Click to expand...
Why the fuck doesn't he like Kamala Harris?
 
K

kirblar

Member
jtb said:
A little surprised Gillibrand came out really hard on PSA that "Medicare for All" is really just a glorified public option - but with the (major!) caveat that single payer has to be the end goal. I've long suspected that was her definition of the term, but was a little surprised to see her actually just come out and say it on the heels of this bill.
Click to expand...
This was about what her position back in '08/'09 was IIRC. She was using MFA/Public Option pretty interchangeably at the time then as well.
 
J

jtb

Banned
also Gillibrand's complete bullshit excuse on PSA for her immigration flip is soooo well done. She's a really good bullshitter. (Not unlike her six month campaign to conflate the public option with single payer!)

Underestimate her at your peril
 
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