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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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balladofwindfishes
Member
How I think this is going to go down...
"We're going to do it this time, guys, woooo!! Finally got 'em, take that Obama!"
31 million without insurance in 2 years
"What bill? There was a bill? I don't remember any bill? I don't know a senator Graham?"
"We're going to do it this time, guys, woooo!! Finally got 'em, take that Obama!"
31 million without insurance in 2 years
"What bill? There was a bill? I don't remember any bill? I don't know a senator Graham?"
benicillin
Banned
I'd imagine they just take any chance very seriously, because if the GOP, beyond all odds, managed to pass this and the Dems were silent it would be disastrous.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Hopefully. They just flat out ignored it last time, though, and Cassidy is already quoted as discrediting any CBO numbers. I hope this one goes down in even bigger flames. Republicans need yet another L to add to the pile this year.
If we don't hear about more movement tomorrow, I'm not seeing it happening.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It took a month and a half of strong arming to get them to ignore the estimates. The original CBO report for the Senate bill killed it for a few weeks before they picked it up again. They were all ready to schedule a vote before July 4th and then the CBO report hit and the entire thing was derailed.
They kept tweaking it and making the raw number as good as they could make it until they came up with a hairbrain plan to pass the blame to the House, because they just couldn't get the numbers down. They didn't have the votes when they were going on the assumption the CBO numbers would become law. They needed something better than that, and hoped the House would do it.
They don't have the time for that song and dance again. This either gets voted on ASAP, or it doesn't happen. There's no time to rewrite it, or do a skinny repeal or whatever junk plans they have.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Right, which is why I mentioned that if we don't hear anything Monday, it isn't happening.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I don't see anything that's materially changed about the situation besides time running out and that they might as well take a last run at it. Cassidy confidently stated that they "probably" have 48 or 49 votes and are "talking to" two or three more. "Probably having at least slightly less than 50 votes" is what every repeal bill has ever had.
Democratic leaders are warning that they "might" have the votes. Again, they're only ever one or two votes shy so they always "might" have the votes. And drumming up concern is free for the Democrats, you know? Either it helps a little or it doesn't matter. No reason not to. And dismissing it out of hand might even be counterproductive. Don't give anyone a reason to vote yes out of spite. Because they will.
Again I'm not saying there's no cause for concern. They're trying to vote for it again. But I don't see any real sign something has fundamentally changed yet. They're just hoping it semi-randomly works.
Democratic leaders are warning that they "might" have the votes. Again, they're only ever one or two votes shy so they always "might" have the votes. And drumming up concern is free for the Democrats, you know? Either it helps a little or it doesn't matter. No reason not to. And dismissing it out of hand might even be counterproductive. Don't give anyone a reason to vote yes out of spite. Because they will.
Again I'm not saying there's no cause for concern. They're trying to vote for it again. But I don't see any real sign something has fundamentally changed yet. They're just hoping it semi-randomly works.
JfcOne of the state waivers in Graham-Cassidy
Means insurers can jack up premiums for people who are already enrolled if you or your dependents get sick.
Pretty sure that's worse than the 2009 status quo?
Fuck you Graham and Cassidy
StopMakingSense
Member
What's the point of even calling it insurance then?
balladofwindfishes
Member
That pricing stuff is illegal in NY.
New York and Vermont ban price changes on an individual basis.
Just widening the gap of quality of life between red and blue states...
If it becomes law, the other blue states will likely pass laws doing the same.
New York and Vermont ban price changes on an individual basis.
Just widening the gap of quality of life between red and blue states...
If it becomes law, the other blue states will likely pass laws doing the same.
StopMakingSense
Member
Poodlestrike
Banned
"Always deregulate" is basically a mental disorder in the GOP at this point.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I know how Cassidy answers the Kimmel test.
"You'll be fine, because New York will pick up the slack and make sure that doesn't happen"
And think that's a satisfactory answer because Republicans are only about me me me. Their thinking goes, well Kimmel is only upset about HIS baby, if we give enough power to the states to make sure HE is protected, HE'LL be fine.
Never mind that someone in Kimmel's shoes, a wealthy celebrity who can buy his child the best possible treatment, has more empathy for other parents in the same situation living under shittier state governments than the entire Senate GOP caucus combined.
"You'll be fine, because New York will pick up the slack and make sure that doesn't happen"
And think that's a satisfactory answer because Republicans are only about me me me. Their thinking goes, well Kimmel is only upset about HIS baby, if we give enough power to the states to make sure HE is protected, HE'LL be fine.
Never mind that someone in Kimmel's shoes, a wealthy celebrity who can buy his child the best possible treatment, has more empathy for other parents in the same situation living under shittier state governments than the entire Senate GOP caucus combined.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So, on that note, which red state governments would actually do this?
States shitty enough to try: Wisconsin, Kansas, both Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia. Michigan for now. I think Mississippi sees enough of the threat from Hood to not try it, Florida GOP would be annihilated if they tried. Alabama would probably bite.
PA has that bad habit of electing the guy from the opposite party of the one currently in
PA is also decaying with very few exceptions so it's probably going to turn into WV-lite someday
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/909449023203024902
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/909449384076677124
There's a bit more of a discussion. That it would be a hell of a flip from this to support. But there's also talk that if Ducey supports, McCain will too.
NEWS: McCainunpromptedrejects ramming a partisan bill through; he wants the bipartisan ACA stabilization bill.
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/909449384076677124
There's a bit more of a discussion. That it would be a hell of a flip from this to support. But there's also talk that if Ducey supports, McCain will too.
McCain is a grown ass man and has more political strength than Ducey could ever dream of, how about he continues to do his own thing instead of listening to a governor no one outside of Arizona knows or cares about
There are times when I wish PA could just be cut up. The eastern part of the state is very different from the middle part of the state and the Pittsburgh section in the west is very different from the rest of the western part of the state.
I knew republicans were would be trying again. Someone tried to say they were done in the one Sanders/Single payer bill thread knew there was no way. They're going to keep trying until the time limit passes and then they're going to try again w hen the next window opens up. If they don't get it this time the next time they're likely to get it because Dems could lose senate seats next year if things go badly. They have to hold those at the very least and hope Collins and Murkowski don't lose their seats to someone further right.
Pittsburgh's on the road to population growth again, Philadelphia's also pretty vibrant. The state overall is on the decline, but once Appalachia and the other outlying territories land, it won't fall like states like Michigan or Ohio.
It's a weird state but also in decline. If we are talking western and central PA, Pittsburgh is definitely a diamond in the rough but imo it's also overhyped and doesn't have the infrastructure needed to be as big and bold as the hype would suggest. The rest of the state is pretty meh. Some nice towns here and there but mostly forgettable if you go more than 30-40 mi outside of the city.
Then when you get to eastern PA, it's more like NY, NJ, Delaware, Maryland... it's basically a different state. But western/central PA cannot be underestimated, it's overall very conservative and uh, deplorable in spots and that is not looking to change, it's getting much much worse
I don't know where you're from but I'm not sure if you've been to red country out here on the western end of the state. It's getting pretty bad, worse than I ever would have thought
There are a lot of decent college towns in the middle of PA but things get really strange in the coal belt and many parts of the Poconos. But, I think Lancaster and York county are the only conservative areas seeing rapid growth.
Trump won by maximizing the conservative turnout in places like Carbon and Butler County way, way past normal turnout numbers, most likely using the same pool of voters. My ex's dopey father was registered Democratic but went nutso over Trump, but he didn't even know how voting in the primaries worked.
Keep in mind, though, Corbett was the first incumbent governor in more than 40 years to lose re-election. Conservative media likes blaming Wolf for the gas tax even though the Republican assembly passed it, I wonder how much that sticks.
Trump won by maximizing the conservative turnout in places like Carbon and Butler County way, way past normal turnout numbers, most likely using the same pool of voters. My ex's dopey father was registered Democratic but went nutso over Trump, but he didn't even know how voting in the primaries worked.
Keep in mind, though, Corbett was the first incumbent governor in more than 40 years to lose re-election. Conservative media likes blaming Wolf for the gas tax even though the Republican assembly passed it, I wonder how much that sticks.
I grew up in Lawrence County. You're right that there are issues of hollowing-out in historically Democratic areas, but there are also large pockets of populations that aren't going to vote GOP. Lots of black people in Erie, Sharon, Crawford, New Castle, Aliquippa, McKeesport, Washington. The loss of working class Democrat whites will hurt, but those areas are in decline while young people grow in Pittsburgh.
Infrastructure wise, the city can actually support more than it currently has. It's well below peak population still, although they would need to be much more aggressive about upgrading transportation because traffic in that city is a nightmare, and this is coming from a guy who moved from Pittsburgh to DC.
That person Trump RT'd had some post about getting rid of Jews in NYC. Shocked I tell you. Shocked to learn the POTUS account keeps RTing the absolute dregs.
https://twitter.com/TomNamako/status/909467051823116288
https://twitter.com/TomNamako/status/909467051823116288
Well, if we're just talking politics, you have a point.
But when I say decline I really mean it. Just a bunch of places with nothing going on, pretty hopeless. White, black, doesn't matter. It just does not look good heading into the future. But the deep red counties are getting notably worse.
I was implying that the roads are a huge part of the problem in Pittsburgh. It's embarrassingly bad and not getting any better, constantly overlooked by the good news about downtown itself, nevermind the fact that if you do not actually live in the city you are going to be sacrificing a huge chunk of your life just ensuring you can make it downtown. It's to the point where you should strongly consider finding a job elsewhere if you don't live in the city which is a problem because there's not nearly as much to do while every other company is foaming at the mouth to cram themselves into an office downtown.
Also PWSA is becoming another headache, two flush and boil advisories in 7 months, prior to that it had been decades since the last advisory. They're looking at a range of $50 to $400 million to replace the water lines and they hope to have this completed by... 2030. Optimistic estimate I am sure.
Senate GOP tries one last time to repeal Obamacare
McConnell and his lieutenants will gauge support for the bill this week in private party meetings.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/17/obamacare-senate-republicans-repeal-242821?lo=ap_a1
This is where we are. Basically if they have 50, they'll schedule a vote on this monstrosity.
McConnell and his lieutenants will gauge support for the bill this week in private party meetings.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/17/obamacare-senate-republicans-repeal-242821?lo=ap_a1
This is where we are. Basically if they have 50, they'll schedule a vote on this monstrosity.
So right now, according to the article, they think they're at 49?
What the fuck, Lamar Alexander? Why are you even working with Patty Murray? Or maybe you aren't anymore, and that's part of what prompted Schumer, Sanders, Frankin, Warren etc to sound the alarms on twitter.
Basically this is going to come down to McCain, again, and this time his Senate BFF has his name on the bill. Great.
Not covering mass shootings is probably the right way to go. Coverage can inspire copy-cats.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I guess I'm still not seeing how anything is different today than the day the last bill was voted.
They're trying to bribe McCain into voting for this one. And McCain's best buddy has his name on this one.
Don't forget, the bipartisan bill is supposed to show its face this week, too.
I appreciate some Dems signing on to single payer but now isn't the time imo. The party should have been full steam ahead behind a bipartisan fix, at least until the end of September, for obvious reasons.
I appreciate some Dems signing on to single payer but now isn't the time imo. The party should have been full steam ahead behind a bipartisan fix, at least until the end of September, for obvious reasons.
Nothing is different, and that's the point. The GOP's desire to screw poor people into oblivion is still there, too. Which is why this repeal bill will keep being raised from the dead despite the GOP having nothing to gain from it. They know the bill they eventually pass will be shit, they're just looking for the right combination of shit to get to 50 votes.
This dude wasn't seeking media attention, he was just mad at his ex.
Once again:
Angry men with access to guns have role models everywhere. Coverage of mass shooters a drop in the bucket.
I sure as fuck wouldn't take a Republican's word that they are at 49. Probably just the best case scenario. Meaning the have 3 no's and assume everyone else is a yes, even if they haven't decided yet.
My prediction: the bill will get an absolutely terrible CBO score and as a result lose support. Bill dies.
I'll still call John McCain and Jeff Flake a bunch until it is dead though.
My prediction: the bill will get an absolutely terrible CBO score and as a result lose support. Bill dies.
I'll still call John McCain and Jeff Flake a bunch until it is dead though.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Blame grandstanding Sanders and his crew of 2020 chasers.
I mean, why? They can still vote for the bipartisan fix bill.
There probably isn't a right combination of shit to get 50 votes.
They can. But if you read the bipartisan fix article the GOP seems to think some Dems signing on to the single payer plan implies the party isn't serious about a bipartisan effort. I was afraid that would happen. The GOP are a bunch of spoiled brats, but they're also in charge...
BoogieWoogie
Banned
For people who think they can't hit 50 again, remember that they didn't give a fuck about their constituents when they voted for the BCA, even going so far as to warn the House not to pass it as is, in a particular bout of straight up insanity.
The GOP doesn't give a fuck and don't even bother to fucking read what's thrown their way, just how it ultimately helps their pocketbooks.
The GOP doesn't give a fuck and don't even bother to fucking read what's thrown their way, just how it ultimately helps their pocketbooks.
What are you talking about? They never got 50 votes for any of their bills.
If there were 50 Republican Senators who will vote for any garbage bill, they would have passed one by now.
This is just a desperate last ditch effort because the window for reconciliation closes at the end of the month.
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