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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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P

pigeon

Banned
jtb said:
So we let the hostages be deported? I mean, I agree with this argument - it's by far the strongest argument against any kind of deal with the Republicans.

Is it because it's the right thing to do (i.e. caving encourages more hostage taking) or because it will lead to electoral gain in 2018? Or both?
Click to expand...

The political theory argument here is complicated and I will get into it when I get to work.

But in terms of the deporting, my opinion is that we should be blocking the entrance to ICE buildings with our bodies and stopping the deportations that way. The agency provides only cruelty.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
pigeon said:
You shouldn't vote for that bill. The United States government does not negotiate with terrorists.
Click to expand...

I don't see any reason to let such a bill be crafted, but if that does happen, I couldn't sleep at night voting to send kids away. Not that I'd ever be happy in such a situation.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Kevinroc said:
Just saw that on Twitter. Are we expecting the GOP to try and rush that awful bill Graham and co. have been working on behind the scenes through in one last attempt to repeal the ACA this year?
Click to expand...
Cheetocare is dead, doesn't have the votes and they're going to use reconciliation for tax reform
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
pigeon said:
The political theory argument here is complicated and I will get into it when I get to work.

But in terms of the deporting, my opinion is that we should be blocking the entrance to ICE buildings with our bodies and stopping the deportations that way. The agency provides only cruelty.
Click to expand...

Or even better, start constant calls to defund ICE.
 
B

Blader

Member
Kevinroc said:
Just saw that on Twitter. Are we expecting the GOP to try and rush that awful bill Graham and co. have been working on behind the scenes through in one last attempt to repeal the ACA this year?
Click to expand...

No, September is going to be packed as it is with Harvey relief, keeping the government funded, raising the debt ceiling, and getting the ball rolling on tax reform.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Blader said:
No, September is going to be packed as it is with Harvey relief, keeping the government funded, raising the debt ceiling, and getting the ball rolling on tax reform.
Click to expand...

Maybe they'll finally get smart and realize they need to do this alongside democrats.

Bwahahahaha...I know. What a crazy idea.
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
jtb said:
So we let the hostages be deported? I mean, I agree with this argument - it's by far the strongest argument against any kind of deal with the Republicans.

Is it because it's the right thing to do (i.e. caving encourages more hostage taking) or because it will lead to electoral gain in 2018? Or both?
Click to expand...

Dems should not vote for a bill that ties DACA or citizenship path or anything else to funding the wall. The reasoning is simple, it is that the Republicans have full control of the House and Senate so that, if any such bill is passed, they could - the following day - just repeal the nice bit and leave the nasty bit, and then claim there was cross-party support for it. And if we've learned anything from the last 7 years or so it's that Republicans in Congress are perfectly capable of playing dirty.

Where's that "you move a little, I'll move a little" cartoon when we need it?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Yeah, I don't see a reason to vote for the wall just because it's tied to DACA or some other immigration reform. If (enough) Republicans support DACA then just do that. The wall is a horrid, racist, destructive waste of money. I don't see an argument for passing such a terrible thing AND giving Trump a victory in the process.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
phisheep said:
Dems should not vote for a bill that ties DACA or citizenship path or anything else to funding the wall. The reasoning is simple, it is that the Republicans have full control of the House and Senate so that, if any such bill is passed, they could - the following day - just repeal the nice bit and leave the nasty bit, and then claim there was cross-party support for it. And if we've learned anything from the last 7 years or so it's that Republicans in Congress are perfectly capable of playing dirty.

Where's that "you move a little, I'll move a little" cartoon when we need it?
Click to expand...

I think the counterpoint is that if they're doing this move (pass it all, repeal stuff next day) then they could just pass a bill with the bad stuff. That's clearly not the case or they'd have done it.

But this situation is preventable ahead of time. Just poison every budget bill until you get something palatable. Pelosi is good at that.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Trump ties his worst result in Gallup, 34/61. But, hey, he broke out of the 59-60 disapproval rut. Way to go!
Click to expand...

August kicked Trump's ass.

At the end of July Trump was still hovering in the upper 30s, now he's dropped a full 3-4 percentage points and he's been locked at 34-35 for almost two weeks now. His response to Hurricane Harry doesn't seem to have registered a blip.

I'm wondering if a larger size of the populace is simply tuning him out now.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
The Chosen One said:
August kicked Trump's ass.

At the end of July Trump was still hovering in the upper 30s, now he's dropped a full 3-4 percentage points and he's been locked at 34-35 for almost two weeks now. His response to Hurricane Harry doesn't seem to have registered a blip.

I'm wondering if a larger size of the populace is simply tuning him out now.
Click to expand...

I definitely think his new standard is low to mid thirties, and even better, his disapproval numbers seem to be at least 60 as a baseline.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL

Group: Kid Rock must register, show contributions in U.S. Senate run

WASHINGTON — A watchdog group today accused Detroit musician Kid Rock of violating federal election law by declaring himself a candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan but not registering his candidacy or reporting campaign contributions.

The group Common Cause filed the complaint with the Federal Election Commission and also asked Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate whether the musician —whose real name is Robert Ritchie — has violated election law.

”Given the activities we've documented in the complaint, he can't reasonably claim to be merely testing the waters of candidacy and thus exempt from candidate filing requirements," said Paul S. Ryan, Common Cause's vice president for policy and litigation. "He is a candidate and is obligated to abide by all the rules."
Click to expand...
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
AntraxSuicide said:
I think the counterpoint is that if they're doing this move (pass it all, repeal stuff next day) then they could just pass a bill with the bad stuff. That's clearly not the case or they'd have done it.
Click to expand...

Political manoeuvres. It's quite possible they couldn't get a R majority voting for the nasty bit alone, but it is much more feasible they could get an R majority if the political result is to shaft the Dems.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Plinko said:
Maybe they'll finally get smart and realize they need to do this alongside democrats.

Bwahahahaha...I know. What a crazy idea.
Click to expand...
Besides the necessary business (Harvey relief funding, debt ceiling, keeping the government open) I'd like to see action on stabilizing the ACA marketplaces and protecting DREAMers.

If Republicans don't want to be totally fucked over in 2018 they need to demonstrate that they can govern in spite of Trump. Either of these bills (the governors' proposal on ACA and the Bridge Act) would be slam dunks in a less polarized era and with a less stupid president.
 
R

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
It's delicious that it's looking like Miller is now getting roped into the obstruction case. Get this guy outta there.

(Also he seems like someone who would flip at the mere sight of a Mueller jpeg, let alone an FBI investigation.)
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
Flake on a DACA...

DIqSfALXgAAjFJV
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Although I admit I could well have serious "bitch eating crackers" blinders, but the TX governor has been looking and sounding like a Trump in his press conferences. He has the commander or NORAD there praising him to his face. Like, instead of speaking to the microphone for her statement, she turned back to him and read something off a paper and thanked him for his awesome leadership. It's... kinda horrifying!

This is almost assuredly the blinders speaking now, but reassuring people about stuff that is a lie probably shouldn't be tolerated. "There's plenty of gas in Texas" [but please ignore all the runs on gas, stations running out, huge price spikes and public chaos on the matter], as one quick example.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Futurevoid said:
Flake on a DACA...

DIqSfALXgAAjFJV
Click to expand...
Flake, Heller and Hatch have all said this. There's probably easily 60 votes for this. I can't imagine the Dem caucus would be anything less than party line (immigration reform had full support) and then you've got Collins, Murkowski, McCain, Graham (co-sponsoring the 2017 DREAM Act with Durbin), Rubio...
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Flake, Heller and Hatch have all said this. There's probably easily 60 votes for this. I can't imagine the Dem caucus would be anything less than party line (immigration reform had full support) and then you've got Collins, Murkowski, McCain, Graham (co-sponsoring the 2017 DREAM Act with Durbin), Rubio...
Click to expand...

So is DACA safe then?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Well, there goes all the good evidence

Julie Pace @jpaceDC
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Smoke seen pouring from chimney at Russian consulate in San Francisco after Trump administration orders its closure.
3:20 PM · Sep 1, 2017
Click to expand...
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
CrimzonSamurai said:
Not until they actually pass legislation to make it permanent. It's entirely entirely controlled by the executive branch as is.
Click to expand...

Pass and have the legislation signed. I've little doubt there is enough political will to pass DACA at this point (though the House is a bit more concerning than the Senate) but will Trump actually sign it? He can talk all he likes about "having heart" but until he puts his money where his mouth is it's just talk.
 
C

CrimzonSamurai

Member
Futurevoid said:
Pass and have the legislation signed. I've little doubt there is enough political will to pass DACA at this point (though the House is a bit more concerning than the Senate) but will Trump actually sign it? He can talk all he likes about "having heart" but until he puts his money where his mouth is it's just talk.
Click to expand...

I actually think he might considering even today he was all "We love the Dreamers." I mean I know like everything the guy says is horseshit but usually the actual wording of the horseshit changes with him over time and he's actually been consistent about this.

But yeah, who knows.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Futurevoid said:
Tennessee has now dropped out of the lawsuit against DACA that's supposed to happen on the 5th.

http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static...1-2017.pdf?token=stUlwSIo3qeVjBe7+UHbTCIuvts=

The letter is amusing in that it acknowledges that Obama's directive was unconstitutional but he really had no other choice since Congress has done fuck all. Gee, you don't say!
Click to expand...

Once again it's proven that policy was rarely the issue among republicans when Obama was president, it was just that Obama was president.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Futurevoid said:
Tennessee has now dropped out of the lawsuit against DACA that's supposed to happen on the 5th.

http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static...1-2017.pdf?token=stUlwSIo3qeVjBe7+UHbTCIuvts=

The letter is amusing in that it acknowledges that Obama's directive was unconstitutional but he really had no other choice since Congress has done fuck all. Gee, you don't say!
Click to expand...
Alexander and Corker would probably vote for a DACA bill, they're both pragmatic old guard types.

Rs who voted for immigration reform in 2013 who are still around:

Murkowski (AK)
McCain (AZ)
Flake (AZ)
Rubio (FL)
Collins (ME)
Heller (NV)
Hoeven (ND)
Graham (SC)
Alexander (TN)
Corker (TN)
Hatch (UT)

Keeping all of those votes and with all 48 Democrats voting in favor, they'd only need one more R vote to clear 60.
 
C

chadskin

Member
It wouldn't be a Friday without someone resigning from the White House:
President Donald Trump's longtime aide and current director of Oval Office operations Keith Schiller has told people he intends to leave the White House, three sources familiar with the decision told CNN.

Schiller has told associates within the last two weeks that he plans to leave the White House at the end of September or in early October, the sources said. Schiller has told people his primary reason for leaving was financial, the sources said. Schiller earns a $165,000 annual salary at the White House -- a downgrade from his annual earnings before he followed Trump to the White House.
Click to expand...
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/01/politics/keith-schiller-donald-trump/index.html

I bet this will particularly upset Trump.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
jtb said:
So we let the hostages be deported? I mean, I agree with this argument - it's by far the strongest argument against any kind of deal with the Republicans.

Is it because it's the right thing to do (i.e. caving encourages more hostage taking) or because it will lead to electoral gain in 2018? Or both?
Click to expand...

Okay, so let's talk about the politics of "letting the hostages be deported."

My focus whenever we talk about hostage situations is on the actual power relationship, because that's all that really matters. Hostage takers try to convince you that, having gained power with a threat of force, they will negotiate fairly. There is no reason to believe that is true.

The Republicans have the power, right now, to save all the Dreamers from deportation. They also have the power to allow them to be deported. The Democrats have no power to influence either option. (This analysis ignores the existence of the filibuster because it's a social norm which can be violated.) Therefore, there is actually no action the Democrats can take to prevent deportation -- any deal they made could immediately be reneged on by the Republicans in a separate bill, which the Democrats would have no power to stop. The illusion of a negotiation is exactly that.

The only way for us to prevent the Dreamers from being deported is through political action to convince the Republicans, who actually hold power, that they want to protect them. Some political action has already occurred. That's why the Republican leaders are talking about wanting to protect them.

Normally you would expect Republican leaders to simply put up and pass a bill that protects the Dreamers. Again, they have the full power to do so. They haven't, though, because they don't actually have agreement within their caucus to pass the bill. They need to temporarily form a coalition between less-racism-focused Republicans and Democrats in order to pass it, with Democrats making up the majority of the votes.

But given that their desire is to avoid deporting the Dreamers, and that they need to coalition with the Democrats to do so, there is no reason for us to make a trade. We should support a bill that contains the issue on which we agree -- preventing Dreamer deportation -- and nothing we don't agree on. That's how coalition politics works.

To put this another way: if we passed a bill that protected the Dreamers and then funded the wall, how would we prevent the Republicans from immediately passing a bill that unprotects the Dreamers? If we cannot prevent them from doing so, what possible justification would there be for supporting a bill that funds the wall?
 
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