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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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W

whyamihere

Banned
Numbers Dude is back with Numbers. I don't really put a lot of stock in this, but this is humorously after he tried to say that Dems would only pick up 2 seats a few months back. Might be worth tracking to see how he does.

http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-forecast/

Has a 45% chance of Dems taking the House, which, sure. But we'll see, probably not worth putting stock into these things until we see how these models perform after a cycle or two. Saying your model worked retroactively is foolish.
 
M

Mark Andrew

Member
Bill Mitchell VII’s yard sign-based model has predicted electoral results with 100% accuracy for one election cycle. I won’t be fooled by the number-crunchers again.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
just got polled by YouGov

DMCa_U5U8AAPjCv.jpg
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Here is the update on the Maine IRV from DKE this morning because someone asked yesterday.

Looming over next year's primary is Maine's new instant-runoff voting system, which voters passed in a 2016 ballot initiative. Although a non-binding state Supreme Court ruling indicated this past spring that the law may ultimately be unconstitutional for state-level general elections, the court’s advisory opinion likely won't affect state-level primaries (and federal races). While the state legislature may yet still try to rectify the situation to avoid near-certain lawsuits and legal chaos, for now the dynamics of the primary race for both parties could be totally upended by the new electoral system.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Fundraising update since Q3 reporting is coming soon:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...kwgNkRwgPc07luYGaxolfNsy0/edit#gid=1966134332

AZ Sen:

Sinema (D): 1.1 mil, 4.2 mil COH
Flake (R): 1.1 mil, 3.4 COH
Ward (R): 690k, 250 COH

IN Sen:

Donnelly (D): 1.3 mil, 4.3 mil COH
Messer (R): 735k, 2.4 mil COH
Braun (R): 1 mil

MA Sen:

Warren (D): 3 mil, 12.8 mil COH (give to someone else jesus)

MI Sen:

Stabenow (D): 1.7 mil, 6.9 mil COH

MO Sen:

McCaskill (D): 2.9 mil, 7.1 mil COH
Hawley (R): 821k, 782k COH

MT Sen:

Tester (D): 1.2 mil, 5.4 mil COH
Rosendale (R): 410k

ND Sen:

Heitkamp (D): 1 mil, 3.8 mil COH

OH Sen:

Brown (D): 2.6 mil, 8.3 mil COH

PA Sen:

Casey (D): 2.2 mil, 7 mil COH

TX Sen:

O'Rourke (D): 1.7 mil, 2.8 mil COH
Cruz (R): 2 mil, 6.3 mil COH

VA Sen:

Kaine (D): 1.8 mil, 8.4 mil COH

WI Sen:

Baldwin (D): 2.4 mil, 5.3 mil COH
Nicholson (R): 400k
Vukmir (R): 250k

WV Sen:

Manchin (D): 900k
Jenkins (R): 221k, 1.26 mil COH
Morrisey (R): 672k, 548k COH

Really shitty fundraising so far for Republicans. And a ton haven't announced which means they might not be too proud of what they've raised.

pigeon said:
Tweet this because it's good
Click to expand...

I did!
 
D

DTC

Member
I'm surprised Flake raised around the same amount as Sinema. Is it because Sinema only recently announced her senate bid?
 
E

Ernest

Banned
"returning moral clarity to our view of the world" and ending "attacks on Judeo-Christian values."
Click to expand...
This is hilarious coming from a twice divorced pussy-grabbing buffoon who retweets anti-Semitic memes.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
whyamihere said:
Numbers Dude is back with Numbers. I don't really put a lot of stock in this, but this is humorously after he tried to say that Dems would only pick up 2 seats a few months back. Might be worth tracking to see how he does.

http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-forecast/

Has a 45% chance of Dems taking the House, which, sure. But we'll see, probably not worth putting stock into these things until we see how these models perform after a cycle or two. Saying your model worked retroactively is foolish.
Click to expand...

I think you're right to be skeptical. Modeling individual House races is really hard (Nate Silver tried and failed). Reading the methodology, the guy has put a lot of thought into his model so I'm not about to call him the new Tyler, but at the end of the day it's hard to put too much stock into a model with no track record yet, and I'd like to see more indication of model validation. It may be interesting to see how it does, but it's certainly unproven now.

balladofwindfishes said:
Going from only getting 2 seats to a 45% chance of taking the House is quite the change
Click to expand...

Part of that is reflecting a change in methodology.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
DTC said:
I'm surprised Flake raised around the same amount as Sinema. Is it because Sinema only recently announced her senate bid?
Click to expand...
His reward for voting for the ACA repeal

Also look at that warren cash. Almost like being pro corporate/wallstreeter isn’t a necessity to be able to raise money
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Teggy said:
Last 2 days have been terrible. Can’t believe this sad little man is the president.
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I think big picture, its much more concerning that the rest of the government is going all with it. If we had a morally sound house and senate he would have been gone a long time ago.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Flake's numbers are pretty bad and he's going to be badly outraised in Q4 now that Sinema will have the entire quarter to fundraise for a real Senate campaign.

It's not like North Dakots, the Phoenix media market isn't super cheap.

I'm more surprised by Baldwin and McCaskill's war chests. If McCaskill goes down, it'll be with a fight.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Missourian here, Claire has been doing an impressive job of building up clout and getting some people fired up all year. Been hearing her name now more than ever. She's done literally like 40 townhalls many of which in very rural/conservative areas. She isn't afraid to go face-to-face with these people and try and level with them. One would have to thinm that'll help at least a little bit next year.

I don't know if she wins but she's going to fight tooth and nail. The Missouri dems are surprisingly competent despite the state growing a lot more red in the past 10-15 years.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
VendettaRed07 said:
I’m more worried about Michigan than Missouri.
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Trump's numbers are dropping quite a bit in Michigan, though. Add in the health care problem and it's going to get worse for republicans there.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
Ted Cruz warns of a "Watergate-style blowout" in 2018

Sen. Ted Cruz on Friday warned that Republicans could face significant losses in the 2018 midterm elections if they fail to enact any major part of their agenda.

"If we do nothing, if tax reform crashes and burns, if Obamacare nothing happens, we could face a bloodbath. I think we have the potential of seeing a Watergate-style blowout," the Texas Republican said at a Koch brothers donors meeting at the St. Regis Hotel in New York.

Sen. David Perdue, R-Georgia, echoed that same concern: "If we fail right now to deliver a meaningful tax package that stimulates the economy... if we don't get that done, we'll be the minority party for the next 50 years to 100 years just like we've been for the last 100 years…"
Click to expand...

So far so good.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Something we already know.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/trump-congress-breaking-point-243761

In the span of a few weeks, the president has threatened to torch the Iran deal, scrap protections for Dreamers, and to touch off an Obamacare death spiral. He has said it's up to Congress to come up with fixes for all three, even as a major overhaul of the tax code remains a top priority for his White House and Republican leadership.

It's a high-stakes gamble. Trump risks owning the fallout from his threats, versus being able to blame President Barack Obama for dumping flawed policy on him. But he also could make good on his reputation as a master dealmaker if his threats help break the congressional gridlock that has so far dogged his presidency. And by taking executive action, he is delivering the ”wins" he promised his base throughout the campaign — or at least as much of a win as he can get without passing actual legislation.
Click to expand...

The task before Congress is immense.

Republicans have repeatedly failed to agree on Obamacare repeal, and House leadership was caught off guard Thursday by Trump's decision to end $7 billion a year in subsidy payments that stabilize Obamacare markets, according to a person familiar with events.

Trump painted the move as an invitation for bipartisan action, writing on Twitter on Thursday: ”The Democrats ObamaCare is imploding. Massive subsidy payments to their pet insurance companies has stopped. Dems should call me to fix!"

By Friday, the White House was suggesting that it might be open to making restoration of the insurance payments contingent on other things Trump wants—like funding for a southern border wall.
Click to expand...

”The president created a lot of these things and threw a lot of them in our lap, but it's going to take a lot of presidential leadership to get this stuff done," said a senior GOP Hill aide. ”You can't just throw things to Congress and expect everything to work out the way you want it to without actually showing some leadership...There's an obligation for them to show us where they want to go."

Democrats have already criticized Trump's actions as both mean-spirited and wrong-headed, and have signaled their unwillingness to play ball with the president.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure he is effectively hurting is own push to get tax cuts. I think the major issue is that I feel Trump is playing his hand way too early. The fact that Trump expects people to do exactly what he wants to do is a major problem in his 'strategy'. Congress is going either come to an agreement that he may not want because he isn't a leader or it won't happen at all. Trump himself is not prepared to take full responsibility and can't deal with criticism, to me that is an indicator that he will sign any bill if he doesn't get what he wants. If anything this puts pressure on the Republicans and not the Democrats fully. I believe if the Democrats play their cards right they will get mostly favorable deals mainly CSR and DACA.
 
H

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
Kevinroc said:
CNN's Cuomo crushes GOP lawmaker for Obamacare sabotage: ‘You're doing this on the backs of the most needy'

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/cn...re-doing-this-on-the-backs-of-the-most-needy/

These people are sick.
Click to expand...

I appreciate that Cuomo pushes back against that dude's disingenuous arguments and I also appreciate that he calls it the "ACA" and not "Obamacare". People need to stop letting Republicans hide behind the "Obamacare" boogeyman while they themselves are destroying healthcare.
 
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