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PoliGAF General Election Thread of Conventions (Sarah Palin McCain VP Pick)

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T

TDG

Banned
:lol Pat Buchanon is such an asshole.

Hootie said:
Is this convention REALLY supposed to give Obama a 7-10 bump? I really doubt it'll happen.
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There's always a big post-convention bump. I'm looking forward to watching the "political experts" here on GAF proclaim victory from looking at post-DNC polls, and proclaim mission failure from looking at post-RNC polls.
 
S

Steve Youngblood

Member
Oh, Pat Buchanan... kudos for reminding us that she didn't reaffirm her Christianity. Way to redirect to the important question of the hour: is Barack Obama a radical Muslim?
 
T

Tommie Hu$tle

Member
quadriplegicjon said:
:( sad.. that this is a weakness. goddam america!
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Yeah, I wish he would get some of that hunger like he had in the earlier part of the campaign season. He was unapologetic in his responses because he had nothing to lose and he gained from that. When he is candid he gains from that.
 
C

capslock

Is jealous of Matlock's emoticon
Tommie Hu$tle said:
Could have been but, there was one or two anwsers he ignored and he a had a look on his face sorta like "Sweetie, you are taking Daddy off message!"
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Yeah, I've seen the most nimble politicians flatfooted by the notorious 'what city are you in?' question.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
dnc-michelle-obama-big.jpg
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
typhonsentra said:
I need a grab of the Crystal Pepsi guy.
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it was on MSNBC behind the panel after first commercial break behind the middle commentator. I think it was a girl, but it was just a big protest-style sign.
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Diablos said:
That's what I mean; how severe were the threats?

This plot was, what, 700+ yards with a sniper rifle... that's pretty serious.
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Id say its about as serious as the others. The venue is what requires the rifle. Usually assassination threats and attempts are pistols do to up close and personal settings.

Though this is a topic we really need to hope just stays a past event and nothing that happens. The Stadium offers alot of danger possabilties
 
T

Tommie Hu$tle

Member
capslock said:
Yeah, I've seen the most nimble politicians flatfooted by the notorious 'what city are you in?' question.
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I think we can both agree that "nimble" is not one of words we can use with Obama. Meticilous, yes; nimble, no. As a Obama supporter I hope that can change.
 
T

Tyrone Slothrop

Banned
Diablos said:
I can't tell if you are joking or not. :\
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i'm being serious. it goes back to ancient times.

but besides all that, the guy's seriously in lots of danger. just have to hope the secret service is way ahead of the curb
 
O

Odrion

Banned
TDG said:
:lol Pat Buchanon is such an asshole.


There's always a big post-convention bump. I'm looking forward to watching the "political experts" here on GAF proclaim victory from looking at post-DNC polls, and proclaim mission failure from looking at post-RNC polls.
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Obama with a 10 point leader = Poligaf back to "OBAMA WILL WIN BY A REAGAN LANDSLIDE!"
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
My ex (big time GOPer) called during Teddys speach to see if I was crying or not (Im a huge Kennedy mark, even the variety killed while my parents were kids).

I told her to shut up, but probably was blubbering like a baby.
 
H

Hootie

Member
Karma Kramer said:
They are going to have extensive security measures taken on thursday night when Obama speaks right?
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Nope, all of the security and cops will be having a party at Dunkin' Donuts while he's giving his speech.
 
K

Karma Kramer

Banned
Lol... the tv monitors at the convention are watching MSNBC so you can hear a delay of Chuck Todd speaking... and Chuck heard it for a second and smiled. So priceless. :D
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Karma Kramer said:
They are going to have extensive security measures taken on thursday night when Obama speaks right?
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The most fucked up thing about this, is that the Right will use this constant jeopardy as a political attack - "Do you want to elect someone who's gonna get assassinated?"
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Hootie said:
Nope, all of the security and cops will be having a party at Dunkin' Donuts while he's giving his speech.
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ssssshhhh now you gave away the PUMA plan.

OuterWorldVoice said:
The most fucked up thing about this, is that the Right will use this constant jeopardy as a political attack - "Do you want to elect someone who's gonna get assassinated?"
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No not really.
 
K

Karma Kramer

Banned
StoOgE said:
My ex (big time GOPer) called during Teddys speach to see if I was crying or not (Im a huge Kennedy mark, even the variety killed while my parents were kids).

I told her to shut up, but probably was blubbering like a baby.
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Wow what a bitch... what the fuck. Good thing she is your ex.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Y2Kev said:
People are forgetting Pelosi WAS on the attack tonight. She just fucking sucks. She's fucking terrible and needs to go away.
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She's a catholic grandmother. Not exactly attack dog material. Others will handle that.
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
GenericPseudonym said:
I honestly think he will.
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There will never be another election in the magnitude of Reagan's 1980 or 1984 Elections. He took pretty much every state.489 Electoral College votes first election and 525 his 2nd
 
K

KilledByBill

Member
TDG said:
There's always a big post-convention bump. I'm looking forward to watching the "political experts" here on GAF proclaim victory from looking at post-DNC polls, and proclaim mission failure from looking at post-RNC polls.
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If I remember correctly Kerry got absolutely no bump at all. That was when it really hit home that he might not win.
 
B

besada

Banned
Diablos said:
That's what I mean; how severe were the threats?

This plot was, what, 700+ yards with a sniper rifle... that's pretty serious.
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Well, Hinckley actually managed to shoot Reagan. Squeaky Fromme got within pistol range. Clinton had a guy open up on the oval office with an AK-47 and another fly a plane into the White House.

For just candidates, though, I'd have to go with RFK who, ya know, got shot to death.
 
G

GenericPseudonym

Banned
laserbeam said:
There will never be another election in the magnitude of Reagan's 1980 or 1984 Elections. He took pretty much every state.
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At the very least I expect a 1996 landslide. I mean the economy sucks, no one likes the war, the world hates you guys and in a country so absorbed in race you have the first black guy in history who could be president. I mean what's the opposition? An inarticulate, old and out of touch McCain? This is so in the bag it's unbelievable.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
There are dozens of assassination plots and attempts stopped every year, they only ever really get publicity if they hit the late stages or if they spring up from local law enforcement hitting on them first. The secret service doesn't publicize it, mainly because they also don't want people to get any info on how any attempts are discovered.

Tyrone: Whose talking points? She's kinda balanced since on one hand she speaks to the racial terms, but on the other hand she's a conservative.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
On bounces:

But the convention bounce is also not something that can simply be ignored. If we looked at the polls from the weekend immediately following the Democratic convention, for instance, and did not adjust them in any way, that might give us an inflated idea about Barack Obama's chances of occupying the White House.
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After playing around with a number of functional forms, I eventually found one based on the combination of two logarithms that that had a decent amount of explanatory power. That function looks like this:
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2764497789_063cbd35f0_o.png


What the chart shows is that the bounce begins to manifest itself in earnest as of about the third day of the convention. This makes a fair amount of sense intuitively. The first day of the convention, usually nothing much happens; there may not even be network coverage of the events. The second day, something does happen -- the keynote speech, frequently -- but it happens in prime time, after the pollsters have already closed shop for the day. So it's on the third day when you can generally expect to see some tangible effects.

From there, the bounce accelerates quickly, peaking approximately 6-7 days from the start of the convention -- that is, the weekend afterward, if the convention runs from Monday through Thursday. It then dissipates in a roughly linear fashion over the next 3-4 weeks.
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Note that we find the average peak bounce to be about 6 points. This is highly consistent with Tom Holbrook's research, where he found the average bounce to be 5.9 points in conventions conducted since 1964. A 6-point convention bounce represents par. If a candidate gets a bounce larger than 6 points, that can be considered to be a good sign. If the bounce is smaller than 6 points, that can be considered to be a bad sign.
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Of course, this gets more complicated if you have two conventions occurring back-to-back, as we have this year. If we take the superposition of a convention bounce curve and an inverse convention bounce curve that begins one week later, we get the following rather strange-looking result:
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2764497795_36019bb1d1_o.png


Our default expectation is that Barack Obama will get a decent-sized but short-lived bounce, which will quickly be compromised by the start of the Republican convention. However, the Republicans' bounce might not be as big as it otherwise would be, because there may still be some lingering afterglow from the Democratic convention.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html
 
O

Odrion

Banned
GenericPseudonym said:
I honestly think he will.
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I think the polls will die back down and become head to head for the rest of the election, and then we'll all be surprised come the big day when he wins by over 300.
 
T

Tyrone Slothrop

Banned
Tamanon said:
Tyrone: Whose talking points? She's kinda balanced since on one hand she speaks to the racial terms, but on the other hand she's a conservative.
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she's balanced, but i feel she just takes the msm consensus of the day and regurgitates it in PR-type speak. but nobody's talking points in particular.

i dunno. maybe it's just her sort of robotic demeanor that i'm basing my opinions on.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Odrion said:
I think the polls will die back down and become head to head for the rest of the election, and then we'll all be surprised come the big day when he wins by over 300.
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I think the big story will be the lines on the morning of November 4th. We won't even need to hear the results that night. The turnout will say it all.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
laserbeam said:
Carville is right though. This could backfire. Absolute Die Hard democrats will keep watching but you may very well turn off the others. This convention means little to the democrat voters it needs to appeal to the undecided others. Snoozers dont keep people watching.
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Why can't you realize that McCain has hit a wall. People that aren't on the Obama train aren't there because they are cautious of the Obama family. Most aren't for McCain they are just nervous of Obama.

This night is trying to fix that.
 
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