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[mckmas8808]

At this point Obama can't do anything right. It looks like people are just too afraid of him. They don't trust him.

They trust a POW that's white and is full of American values from america.

He even has an American name while Obama is a foreign name.

John is as American as they come. Obama not so much. I expected a 2-5 point bounce, but it looks like staying even is the best he can do.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

At this point Obama can't do anything right. It looks like people are just too afraid of him. They don't trust him.

They trust a POW that's white and is full of American values from america.

He even has an American name while Obama is a foreign name.

John is as American as they come. Obama not so much. I expected a 2-5 point bounce, but it looks like staying even is the best he can do.

I don't know why you're worried. Ghaleon is right. Regardless of National Polls, Obama has this won.

 

[TDG]

...The election is lost.

 

[Askia47]

Don't fail us now America.

 

[bob_arctor]

Time to throw Biden under the bus? Can you do that?

 

[pxleyes]

...The election is lost.

WOE IS ME!

 

[Odrion]

This is the hope.

i don't understand why people think the debates are going to be an easy victory for obama

But this polling data is after Joe Biden and that huge "SEVEN HOUSE" push the Obama campaign did.

 

[Captain Pants]

I don't know why you're worried. Ghaleon is right. Regardless of National Polls, Obama has this won.

I wish I was this confident. I am still worried that the Republican party will steal this one by preying on the fears of the American people.

 

[Karma Kramer]

I don't know why you're worried. Ghaleon is right. Regardless of National Polls, Obama has this won.

:lol

I'm sorry... but in no way shape or form... does Obama have this won. I think he will win, if I had to take a bet... but to toss away poor polling as nothing big... kind of seems slightly too optimistic.

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/26/chris-matthews-experience_n_121468.html

Someone shoot me.

 

[woeds]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yYlzX2ZOLM

McCain new 3 A.M ad. I'm so incredibly pissed off by this. *%#&^*#*&^^& I KNEW when Hillary started spouting this shit that it would be used by McCain in the GE.

And supposedly she's not very happy about how the Obama camp is treating her and Bill right now. Really? It's your own f*cking fault for treating the Democratic Primary as the general Election.

 

[Door2Dawn]

McCain gets a lead in the gallup poll and the whole thread goes to shit.

You guys are amazing.

 

[Odrion]

McCain gets a lead in the gallup poll and the whole thread goes to shit.

You guys are amazing.

The huge hype for the VP pick and the housing gaffe did not work. It's kinda unfortunate.

For a more optimistic poll this bounced back up into the safe zones pretty quick after the housing gaf and veep pick:

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I wish I was this confident. I am still worried that the Republican party will steal this one by preying on the fears of the American people.

It's math. Just like the primaries. Obama just has to stay close and not fuck up too tremendously while behind the scenes, his team is going into counties and districts that matter and locking shit down.

Also, in terms of daily polling nonsense, I think Michelle did a tremendous job in winning over undecideds. Remember, there are like 12% of them.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Does anyone here still go to Hillary is 44? It's still good for a few laughs :lol

That made me curious.

http://hillaryis45.org/

This space reserved for 2012

However, hillaryis46.org seems to be free.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

:lol

I'm sorry... but in no way shape or form... does Obama have this won. I think he will win, if I had to take a bet... but to toss away poor polling as nothing big... kind of seems slightly too optimistic.

It's poor polling that's also irrelevant. We don't elect a president on popular vote. Also, McCain is "winning" about as much as PS3 "beats" the 360 in NA.

 

[KingGondo]

WOW at the new 3 AM ad. That's brutal.

You have to give McCain credit for the damage he's done during the summer. His media messages have hit hard.

 

[mckmas8808]

i don't understand why people think the debates are going to be an easy victory for obama

But this polling data is after Joe Biden and that huge "SEVEN HOUSE" push the Obama campaign did.

I know. And McCain has found the secret to beating all negative news. Just say I was a POW. 90% of the media are pussies and accept that as an okay answer.

POW will be in every debate answer that's hard for McCain to answer.

 

[Karma Kramer]

It's poor polling that's also irrelevant. We don't elect a president on popular vote. Also, McCain is "winning" about as much as PS3 "beats" the 360 in NA.

Polling drives the media narrative and the media narrative drives votes. If you can't see the cause and effect of Obama getting no big bounce (or fucking losing to McCain for the FIRST time) after his VP pick and the Convention... then frankly a lot of you might be surprised in November when McCain barely takes Ohio Colorado, and New Mexico, clinching the Presidency.

 

[Odrion]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yYlzX2ZOLM

McCain new 3 A.M ad. I'm so incredibly pissed off by this. *%#&^*#*&^^& I KNEW when Hillary started spouting this shit that it would be used by McCain in the GE.

And supposedly she's not very happy about how the Obama camp is treating her and Bill right now. Really? It's your own f*cking fault for treating the Democratic Primary as the general Election.

Hillary and Bill need to fix this and scream for their base to unify.

The pessimistic part of me thinks they'll be as effective as Nanci, "HE HAS EXPERIENCE.... IN BAD DECISION MAKING HEEEYUUCK."

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

McCain gets a lead in the gallup poll and the whole thread goes to shit.

You guys are amazing.

Brain, use it.

We know this doesn't indicate who will win the election. The problem is that polling samples showing more people actually preferring McCain is disappointing. We think Obama should lead polls by wide margins considering the state that Bush has left our country in.

 

[syllogism]

It's unfortunate the GOP convention was not first as it's pretty likely Mccain will not get a bounce either. In the end it doesn't really matter, just makes the cable news and this thread more unbearable than usual.

 

[Odrion]

It's unfortunate the GOP convention was not first as it's pretty certain Mccain will not get a bounce either.

I bet the GOP convention will get a bigger bounce than the DNC.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Polling drives the media narrative and the media narrative drives votes. If you can't see the cause and effect of Obama getting no big bounce (or fucking losing to McCain for the FIRST time) after his VP pick and the Convention... then frankly a lot of you might be surprised in November when McCain barely takes Ohio Colorado, and New Mexico, clinching the Presidency.

Whoa whoa whoa, WHAT?

Are you just running some Big Brother shit where're planning your H.O.H. run four weeks ahead?

 

[Karma Kramer]

I don't think anyone here would have thought that McCain would be polling ahead of Obama today.

Its a long way till November, I understand, but when a VP pick doesn't give you a bounce... then what will?

 

[Tamanon]

OMGONOZ.GIF

Bunch of ninnies!

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I don't think anyone here would have thought that McCain would be polling ahead of Obama today.

Its a long way till November, I understand, but when a VP pick doesn't give you a bounce... then what will?

A Four Day Democratic Convention?

 

[syllogism]

You don't need a bounce to win the election

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Ack! "No Party" basically means you're an independent, right!?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

OMGONOZ.GIF

Bunch of ninnies!

No dude, you don't understand. Those two percentage points after weeks of attacks and no Hillary pick...it's over, man.

 

[Arde5643]

Ack! "No Party" basically means you're an independent, right!?

Swing voter? :lol

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Well, I see two things to take away from this polling data. Either you can dismiss polling as being largely irrelevant (which is very fair in this state of the game), or you can concede that Obama's got some work to do.

Personally, I like to operate somewhere in between those two viewpoints. It's unfortunate as it would have been nice to see a bump from the VP pick and the house gaffe leading into the convention, but you can't win them all. Obama and Biden have over two months to campaign, and it looks like they've got some work to do. We can whine and deride the country and the media for falling for McCain's tactics, or we can admit that this is hardly surprising, and that Obama needs to focus a little harder on breaking through. I've said this before, but nothing new is happening. This campaign was dead before it started if everyone thought that the "new politics of change" were just going to topple "the old politics of fear" with no resistance.

 

[bob_arctor]

OMGONOZ.GIF

Bunch of ninnies!

:lol Pretty much.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

You don't need a bounce to win the election

Actually, I heard this year they're just averaging the polls and giving it to the winner. Wait, hold on. Just got a text.

Oh, no. It's regular elections, same as always.

 

[siamesedreamer]

The 3 am ad is amazing.

She left that one on a tee for him.

 

[maximum360]

Obama has a three way fight. He has to take on John McCain, the media, and Hillaryland. Hillary was pissed that she lost and the media was ready for a narrative to spice up a controversy. Hillary used back channels and surrogates to claim sexism, etc. and the media was all too willing to comply. They wanted a tight race and now they got one. The polls have tightened for the last couple of weeks and people assumed that since the media got what they wanted, they would start being more objective. False. I feel a comeback kid narrative for John McCain is on its way.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Well, I see two things to take away from this polling data. Either you can dismiss polling as being largely irrelevant (which is very fair in this state of the game), or you can concede that Obama's got some work to do.

Personally, I like to operate somewhere in between those two viewpoints. It's unfortunate as it would have been nice to see a bump from the VP pick and the house gaffe leading into the convention, but you can't win them all. Obama and Biden have over two months to campaign, and it looks like they've got some work to do. We can whine and deride the country and the media for falling for McCain's tactics, or we can admit that this is hardly surprising, and that Obama needs to focus a little harder on breaking through. I've said this before, but nothing new is happening. This campaign was dead before it started if everyone thought that the "new politics of change" were just going to topple "the old politics of fear" with no resistance.

This x1029832874827%

 

[pxleyes]

The 3 am ad is amazing.

She left that one on a tee for him.

If by amazing you mean fear mongering, then yes.

 

[KingGondo]

For all those bemoaning "the state Bush left our country in," remember one simple thing:

McCain is not Bush, as much as you'd like him to be.

And for those expecting a huge convention/Biden/housegate bump, remember that the undecided portion of the country does not follow the 24-hour newscycle like much of PoliGAF. Nobody really watches the convention except the hardcore supporters, not many people know (or care) who Biden is, and McCain's house flub is the weakest "scandal" I've seen in some time.

The American people want to know what their president is like, and seeing him in casual environments or on an entertainment show like Leno is much more conducive to this aim. Zingers like the ones McCain is so adept at throwing out are much more effective in this soundbyte-oriented age, for better or worse. And his ads have all essentially hit the mark--they get across a very strong point that is memorable.

 

[Frank the Great]

As an objective voter, that new 3 am ad insults my intelligence.

As an Obama fan, that 3 am bad worries me because most Americans don't have intelligence that can be insulted.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Also, am I the only one who thinks the GOP convention will get like half the viewership?

 

[KingGondo]

If by amazing you mean fear mongering, then yes.

Fear mongering? He used an uncut quote from Hillary to make a point about experience in crisis. It's immensely effective, and I expect it to be doubly so amongst experience-oriented former Hillary supporters.

 

[polyh3dron]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yYlzX2ZOLM

McCain new 3 A.M ad. I'm so incredibly pissed off by this. *%#&^*#*&^^& I KNEW when Hillary started spouting this shit that it would be used by McCain in the GE.

And supposedly she's not very happy about how the Obama camp is treating her and Bill right now. Really? It's your own f*cking fault for treating the Democratic Primary as the general Election.

remember in the primaries when some of us said that hillary was destroying the democratic party with all her negative campaigning, that the repubs would only need to use hillary soundbites to attack obama and some of you were all like "stop being crybabies politics is a contact sport obamas not jesus lol"

this is why

no matter what hillary and bill do from now till november, if obama loses it will be seen as their fault and hillary will be finished

 

[pxleyes]

Also, an=m I the only one who thinks the GOP convention will get like half the viewership?

It will get half the viewership, if that. College football is here and you can bet the farm most "average" Americans will be tuning into that.

Fear mongering? He used an uncut quote from Hillary to make a point about experience in crisis. It's immensely effective, and I expect it to be doubly so amongst experience-oriented former Hillary supporters.

Everything outside of that quote is fear mongering, and the quote itself is fear mongering by Hillary.

 

[Door2Dawn]

Fear mongering? He used an uncut quote from Hillary to make a point about experience in crisis. It's immensely effective, and I expect it to be doubly so amongst experience-oriented former Hillary supporters.

You may need to watch the ad again.

 

[KingGondo]

Also, an=m I the only one who thinks the GOP convention will get like half the viewership?

And the DNC will be able to hang their hat on the TV ratings once November rolls around. Moral victories.

 

[GhaleonEB]

On convention bounces:

I've posted this a few times, but here goes.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

Short version:

1) Convention bounces begin on day 3, not sooner
2) They peak 6-7 days after the convention
3) Typical bounce is six points
4) Conventions are not usually back-to-back. Don't expect Obama's to be "typical"

If we're benchmarking with Gallup, Obama started tied and now is down two. Let's wait until the weekend to see how this goes.

 

[TDG]

WOE IS ME!

AMERICA HAS FAILED AGAIN

Spoiler

Until obama's up big post-convention, at which point McCain will be doomed, Obama might win every state, etc.

 

[polyh3dron]

If Hillary does not directly address McCain's use of her words against Obama tonight I will be PISSED.

PISSED

 

[bob_arctor]

And the DNC will be able to hang their hat on the TV ratings once November rolls around. Moral victories.

So you're calling a McCain win then? Based on what, exactly?