What's wrong with surveys?
PS4 Has Fifty Percent Lead Over Microsoft's Xbox One, Says Strategy Analytics Survey
- Thread starter Poetic.Injustice
- Start date
What's wrong with surveys?
Boss Man
Member
I disagree with the first part. I think that the increased popularity of gaming in general pushed by what is currently the casual mobile/tablet crowd only stands to move towards core gaming and not away from it.
Basically, I think there's a connection and that the traffic is a lot busier coming this way than going that way. People don't stop playing Call of Duty or The Elder Scrolls to switch to Angry Birds, but some of the people introduced to Angry Birds may eventually become interested in Call of Duty.
So as long as the mobile market isn't actually pulling people away from PC/Console gaming, I think we only stand to gain from it. The worst side-effect is that it can draw the interest of publishers away from the core market, but I don't think it will be that significant and I also think it's worth the cost to introduce a larger audience to video games.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
I'm not discounting Microsoft's gains, but most were attained on the back of massive failures on Sony's part. And at the end of it all, 360 still ended up being outsold even with over a year headstart and a large price differential.
Now the tables are reversed, Sony is launching at the same time and $100 less. I don't see very many PS3 only owners switching to Xbox One, but I see a healthy amount of 360 owners switching to PS4.
Well, if Amazon pre-orders can be used as an indication, that seems more than likely.
ThreeSixty
December 16, 2009. 4:00 AM. THE LIGHT FIELD is the force. The mind. That guides. Controls.
Here's some anecdotal evidence. I'm a hardcore Xbox fan. I bought the original Xbox at full price at launch. Completed Halo about a hundred times. I was a beta-tester for Xbox Live when that launched. The Xbox was my primary console for that generation. The allegiance I had with the Xbox brand was so strong I became a Staff Writer for TeamXbox.com. Reviewed hundreds of Xbox games. I was there for the midnight launch of Halo 2. I naturally switched over to the Xbox 360 when that launched. I was there again for the midnight launch of Halo Reach. I've been a consistent and constant die-hard Xbox fan for both generations there has been an Xbox console.
And at the end of this year, I'm permanently switching over to the PS4.
And at the end of this year, I'm permanently switching over to the PS4.
IDK but if MS loses America they are pretty much fucked.
They might be planning a more world wide attack this gen but for the most part Sony has been known to have a grip everywhere besides America/UK. IF MS truly feel like they are losing people here, they will be flood the air waves with so many ads it will make your head spin
They might be planning a more world wide attack this gen but for the most part Sony has been known to have a grip everywhere besides America/UK. IF MS truly feel like they are losing people here, they will be flood the air waves with so many ads it will make your head spin
People are greatly underestimating the multitasking capabilities of the Xbox One console. If the PS4 doesn't have similar software capabilities when it comes to multitasking, apps etc then that is going to persuade the smart phone generation to choose the Xbox One in the long run - user experience is the key factor for success for all technology (see Apple with their superior UX across the board). One of the main reasons people chose Xbox 360 over PS3 this generation was user experience conveyed through software: Xbox Live, Party/private cross-game/app voice chat, background downloads, and multimedia apps, achievements - the PS3 could not compete with these experiences in any of these areas for a long, long time. The thing about UX is that nobody really knows how good it will be for either platform until they actually launch and people start using the devices. User Experience is a pretty lame term but it is really the key factor for any successful product - under-the-hood power and theoretical advantages are nowhere near as important for ANY product (see Android tablets vs the iPad for a good example).
This is really the crux of it. Even if we call PS3 and 360 an exact tie of around 77 million systems sold each, Sony is poised to gain marketshare over their PS3 totals. PS3 owners are not jumping to XBO. It's just not happening at anywhere near a significant level. XBO has 77 million potential customers as well, but I see them just having a goal of maintaining that marketshare. They won't steal anyone from Sony that's already a Playstation 3 fan, so now it becomes a game of "just try to hold onto our 77 million 360 owners" and not a game of "how much marketshare can we gain over last gen".
And they're already losing 360 people. I'm one of them. I know there are others. Preorders in the US and UK (MS's best markets) are already reflecting a change in the prevailing winds. XBO will sell quite a few consoles and will maintain enough sales to be a healthy ecosystem. But I don't think they'll even reach the 77 million they had with the 360. I can see a situation where PS4 has 100 mil sales and XBO ends up with 50 mil sales.
Honestly, I'd figure the PS4 would outsell the Xbone at launch by simple virtue of there being more units allocated, based on the yield rumors, the rumors of store allocations, and the PS4's comparatively early FCC cert. Even in NA I'd suspect the numbers to initially favor Sony's system. I'm a bit more curious how things will look after the holiday seasons are over and the dust has time to settle, say a few months after launch to see where the sales are trending.
Also, I find it funny that folks assume MS will keep even in NA due to the Xbox apparently being such a big name in the States. Lot of good that supposed brand loyalty did Sony during the PS3 era, and Sega before that, and Nintendo before that; you get the idea. Brand loyalty doesn't amount to as much as folks think; I'd bet the Cowadooty dudebros will merrily switch to the Playstation brand as long as it means they get to play with their dudebro friends online the way they've been doing until now.
Also, I find it funny that folks assume MS will keep even in NA due to the Xbox apparently being such a big name in the States. Lot of good that supposed brand loyalty did Sony during the PS3 era, and Sega before that, and Nintendo before that; you get the idea. Brand loyalty doesn't amount to as much as folks think; I'd bet the Cowadooty dudebros will merrily switch to the Playstation brand as long as it means they get to play with their dudebro friends online the way they've been doing until now.
sixteen-bit
Member
not surprising
Brand loyalty would have mattered if XBO had BC and PS4 didn't. Even an emulator for the hits like they did with the 360 would have been something. But forcing the slate to be wiped clean seems like it will do a lot of harm to their potential sales.
I agree with you. Would you like to know what ruined my user experience with xbox? Multiple Pay Walls. I also loathe Windows 8, it was all I really needed from MS to tell me that they're A. Listening, and B. Don't really care what I want. I feel that the Xbox One is continuing that trend, I hope I am wrong but MS just feels very out of touch, reminds me of Sony at the beginning of last gen.
anexanhume
Member
Truth. I loved Duke too.The first Xbox was one of the best console ever imho
I don't know what you think MS is going to do with connected apps, but it's not going to draw the smartphone crowd. As for connected apps, I'll be playing Battlefield 4 commander mode on my nexus 7 through a t-mobile hotspot when I can't play my PS4. And now with Google just dropping the chromecast on us, what can Microsoft possibly offer on my tv that I can't get from my mirrored android device, or my wife's iPhone? Microsoft just isn't relevant to my needs or many other people's needs these days. And the x1 isn't going to change that outside of their personal choice of game boxes.
Fair enough, but that just boils down to a "would'a, should'a, could'a" kind of thing. On the other hand, since MS seems so keen on the whole 180 thing, maybe they'll announce 360 game streaming for XBLG members like Gaikai or somesuch. But that's just delving into baseless speculation.
True. The Xbox One offers solutions to problems that no one ever had.
You missed the point. It's not about features. It's how those features are presented to the user.
Chromecast is lame technology compared to Airplay - the functionality is full of compromises. With Airplay you're running your streaming device-to-device with hardly any perceivable lag, with Chromecast you're choosing content to stream on your phone which then tells your Google Account/Chrome to stream content from internet-to-tv: the main issue with this is reliability, speed, lag and compatibility (certain apps etc won't work) - with Airplay you can now just stream your screen straight to your TV, sound system etc and it plays instantly - any app you like, any content you like. Again, Apple wins hands-down on UX terms. Airplay = easy to use, easy to understand. That will always be a huge advantage.
Edit: Clarification - I'm not saying Microsoft will win in this area. I'm saying that whoever does best in this area is likely to succeed. So far there's nothing to see apart from a few poorly communicated usage scenarios by Sony (that terrible OS video) and Microsoft (the reveal event).
Oublieux
Member
Yeah... a survey is a legitimate method of identifying trends. Survey's are used in well known scientific articles to boot. What's more, the sample size noted in this article is also considered pretty significant, so I wouldn't dismiss it so easily.
That being said, I don't know how well controlled the survey was. Scientific surveys are one thing, internet surveys are another.
Meatyhooks
Neo Member
You took the words right out of my mouth.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Why is this not the first post
1) it is a console attached to your TV, it isn't as critical to switch apps etc as a tablet or smartphone
2) vita suggests Sony can do multitasking just fine thanks
Brad Grenz
Member
The PS4 multi tasks. They confirmed this in the "20 things you didn't know about the PS4" video SCEE released a couple weeks ago: "In most situations you will be able to switch instantly between playing a game and other apps OR the dynamic menu."
S0cc3rpunk
Unconfirmed Member
Just take out the kinect and ill buy it for $250
DeviantBoi
Member
If MS manages to make a console that doesn't break constantly, they're gonna sell a whole lot less than the 360.
Quadraphonic
Member
They were never planning a world wide ANYTHING.
The original launch of the Xbox One was to be about a dozen countries since it wouldn't legally be allowed in a ton of them, and there wasn't an infrastructure in the rest.
Just take out the kinect and ill buy it for $250
yeah i kinda want them to take a decisive beating and backtrack to a kinectless cheaper model.
the sooner the better.
ChiliManiac
Banned
I think Sony tends to see it's markets as a sprint because it doesn't have the long term marketing power that Microsoft has. Microsoft can afford to push things evenly throughout the entire cycle and make a sprint at the end as we saw with the Xbox 360.
That's not to say Sony couldn't do this but I think they are going to try and capture as much of the early market as possible. Microsoft can sell the Xbox One as a Consumer Electronics device 5 years from now. Families will most likely want the Xbox One while hardcore gamers will probably gravitate towards the PS4.
The Compromise with families will be something like, it plays games too and does things on the TV. The PS4 just plays games(which we know isn't the case). They will go with what benefits the household the most and Sony now lacks the benefit of being the only Blu-Ray equipped console. One final note is that Microsoft can out spend Sony every holiday season even if Sony puts more marketing behind the PS4 at launch.
That's not to say Sony couldn't do this but I think they are going to try and capture as much of the early market as possible. Microsoft can sell the Xbox One as a Consumer Electronics device 5 years from now. Families will most likely want the Xbox One while hardcore gamers will probably gravitate towards the PS4.
The Compromise with families will be something like, it plays games too and does things on the TV. The PS4 just plays games(which we know isn't the case). They will go with what benefits the household the most and Sony now lacks the benefit of being the only Blu-Ray equipped console. One final note is that Microsoft can out spend Sony every holiday season even if Sony puts more marketing behind the PS4 at launch.
And 100% chance that Sony wins it.
Cirekiller
Member
What I'm curious about is if E3 was so important and so big and made such a huge splash that whatever Microsoft decided to revoke afterward doesn't actually make much of a difference in launch sales because the consumer that reads Forbes and WSJ and watches Jimmy Fallon, etc. already made their decision and have their first impressions molded from the week after E3 during the PR disaster. Microsoft revoked policies now, but only the major gaming outlets seem to have reported much on it, right? More or less, at least? It still seems to me like the casual consumer has just heard "Xbox is no used games, PS4 is cheaper, get that" from E3 and stuck with it. Perhaps that shows in pre-order numbers still favoring PS4 as well?
I meant a more European campaign compared to this gen
Er this your first console jump?
Sony never were "sprinters" they always did the marathon tho, back when the ps3 was selling like shit they kept telling people that it would be a 10 year cycle regardless. I think the PS2 was also a 10 year cycle as well. Also on the families most will probably pick the one that is cheaper then other especially if on the surface level it does the exact same thing as a console that is 100 dollars more. Like what happened with the 360 and the PS3
ChiliManiac
Banned
No, but Sony always meant that they would support the console for 10 years. The PS2 was a 10 year cycle.
CassiusLonginus
Banned
The casual consumer is ignorant and forgetful as all hell. It will come down to which one of the consoles their gaming acquaintances have.
If toward the end of the first year the XB1 somehow manages to get ahead enough of the PS4 in the market, it won't matter what the casuals heard the year before about the 'evils' of the XB1.
But amazingly, NA was a market that was MS's to lose and it seems they have managed to lose it.
Analytics Surveys and Analysts are two completely different things. This has been stated several times in the thread but you juniors need some clarification since reading comprehension doesn't appear to be your strong suit.
While this doesn't necessarily spell disaster for the X1, it definitely does not look good. Those amazon charts are pretty telling as well.
Microsoft is going to have to get people more invested in their XBL accounts so that switching to a new console will be a harder decision to make. Similar to how people who played WoW for 7 years are less likely to switch to a new MMO because they invested so much into their WoW account.
soulassssns
Banned
Tenshi
Banned
I don't get it, why is everybody losing their shit?
... or did you people actually expect something good from the whole "we don't know what were doing" PR shitstorm from Microsoft? Who here honestly believed the 180 they did would help all that much? If anything it just makes their overall plan look even more shakey.
... or did you people actually expect something good from the whole "we don't know what were doing" PR shitstorm from Microsoft? Who here honestly believed the 180 they did would help all that much? If anything it just makes their overall plan look even more shakey.
sono
Gold Member
Its not looking that positive for MS at launch comparatively;
See also http://www.xboxonevspsfour.com/
See also http://www.xboxonevspsfour.com/
Americanmushroom
Banned
Hmm i think quite the opposite. The Ps3 is still having amazing games even now. Since kinect MS has been very absent in the first party games
George Claw M.D.
Member
I agree with the overall point of your message. The bit about Android/iPhone is a perfect example. Many(not all) Android users tout feature lists and tech specs, and don't understand that those don't trump the superior UX of iOS for many people.
And I also agree when you say, "The thing about UX is that nobody really knows how good it will be for either platform until they actually launch and people start using the devices." So why don't you heed your own words before telling people how they're "greatly underestimating" the Xbone's capabilities? Unless you've test out the Xbone's features yourself, you don't know either way to make that assessment.
People keep assuming that the OS and multitasking is going to be flat out 'terrible'. I think that's an underestimation of Microsoft's software chops/experience/talent.
True talk.
No one is underestimating Microsoft os abilities, they make Windows. People underestimate Sony's os capabilities. The issue people have with Microsoft is that as nice as some of those things are, they are not really needed or wanted. There have already been some restrictions announced. You can only do picture in picture with some apps. You can't do it with games and tv. The fact that you can't do it with games and tv kills the multitasking.
Angelus Errare
Banned
I agree, but people who say that are idiots who we really shouldn't be responding to anyway.
Melchiah
Member
The box wasn't the culprit of RROD either.
All six of them?