I think this may be true for some games, but for others I don't believe it. I don't think Square Enix needs Sony to release a mainline game for their most popular IP, or that Konami needs Sony to release a remake of one of the greatest classics in the horror genre. Of course, these are usually mutually advantageous deals (except in cases where a commercial flop happens, like FF7 Rebirth), but I don't see how they "likely" wouldn't be developed without Sony paying for the exclusivity.
And about the other games, Wukong was a case of Microsoft's own incompetence more than Sony's merit. Stellar Blade and Ronin might be true of what you said, although I didn't really like Ronin that much and I thought Wo Long last year was better, but whatever.