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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
MrHoot said:
Absolutely, which is why I maintain EU should stay firm. But at least in appearances should not openly antagonize and try to play matchmaker with scotland until scotland has its referendum
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They won't do that. Mostly because France and Spain have their own similar issues.

They may engage in informal talks so adherence may be sped up after a potential declaration of independence, but nobody is going to take Scotland from the UK.
 
H

Hazzuh

Member
The EU have so many options as well that they can choose a deal where they don't even appear to be screwing us but still are. The tweets earlier about the French making the UK choose between it's banking sector and free movement seem like a very very smart way for the EU to proceed.
 
T

The Friendly Monster

Member
MrHoot said:
eh, he's not entirely wrong in the crux of his message

The best play for EU right now is not to be a big authoritarian force as to not feed into the far-right narrative. They need to be collaborative and find arrangements (and they can still be firm about their position).

The EU has an image problem it needs to improve, wether we like it or not, and the best play it can do is to show everyone is that they're a positive force, not a negative one.
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This is delusional. The EU is the other member states, you think they should act against the best interests of their own citizens and pander to the Brits who just expressedly rejected them?
 
N

Nivash

Member
MrHoot said:
eh, he's not entirely wrong in the crux of his message

The best play for EU right now is not to be a big authoritarian force as to not feed into the far-right narrative. They need to be collaborative and find arrangements (and they can still be firm about their position).

The EU has an image problem it needs to improve, wether we like it or not, and the best play it can do is to show everyone is that they're a positive force, not a negative one.
Click to expand...

The EU has an incentive not to set a precedent, though. If it gives the UK a deal that's too generous and exactly what they want - even if it makes economic sense to both parties - it's basically signalling to all the other members that leaving and renegotiating is a way to successfully get more beneficial deals. It's a pandora's box that could lead to near anarchy and is far more likely to result in the eventual dissolution of the union than upsetting the far right is.

The EU needs to make the point that leaving has consequences and that you're better in than out. If it doesn't, it basically undermines the foundation for its own existence.
 
M

MrHoot

Member
shinra-bansho said:
There's nothing authoritarian about not giving the UK everything they want because it thinks it's special when it's not.
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I absolutely agree. I meant entirely "on appearance" (like avoiding posturing too much before the actual negotiations start).

I'm very much of the opinion that the UK has no claim to have the same benefits as before myself.

But I can't deny that there's an "image problem" even tho it's freaking annoying because all the information you could want is available, but people will chose to ignore it

I'm sorry if I expressed myself poorly
 
accel

accel

Member
GamingKaiju said:
Me and my brother have been having a bit of a fall out on the situation ATM.

He's a leaver and I'm a in'ie

This is my last mail I sent to him outlining my view on the situation and why we must stay in.

...

Look I&#8217;m not saying that the EU is all roses I know it&#8217;s slow and very bureaucratic. But the alternative is far worse. <words about having to accept deal with EU>
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No disrespect to your vote, but you are talking about short term, while, chances are, your brother voted based on the long term.

Here's a thought as to why he might have leaned towards Leave as a better option in the long term: since the time EU has been founded, it has been outperformed economically by US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc. We aren't talking about China or South Korea here, they outperformed everyone to the moon and back. We are talking about folks who speak a european language and behave as europeans, but leave in places other than EU. These folks have all managed to put EU to shame. Maybe that's partly because EU is not a good way to move forward economically (ie, the super-government meddles with business too much)?

(I am not meaning to convert you or anyone else, just to illustrate that it is not so clear cut and that folks who voted Leave aren't lunatics.)
 
T

The Friendly Monster

Member
People don't seem to realise that the UK does not have some sort of god-given right to even be part of the EEA. The Norway deal would be generous given the EU histories of Norway and the UK.

The British Empire state of mind is alive and kicking.

Juncker is right that deals should not be "a la carte".
 
M

Micael

Member
MrHoot said:
eh, he's not entirely wrong in the crux of his message

The best play for EU right now is not to be a big authoritarian force as to not feed into the far-right narrative. They need to be collaborative and find arrangements (and they can still be firm about their position).

The EU has an image problem it needs to improve, wether we like it or not, and the best play it can do is to show everyone is that they're a positive force, not a negative one.
Click to expand...

Long term I suspect the best play for the EU is to just let the UK go and give them the EEA deal with no banking passport, UK will almost certainly be diminished with the Scottish leaving and the economy will almost assuredly tank, so the message that it's better to stay in the EU than to leave writes itself without the EU having to do anything special either way.
 
M

Meadows

Banned
ferrasvansen said:
Nothing has changed yet, still in Europe, still in single market. This is as good as it gets, once things start happening i suspect you will disappear under a rock while the shit hits the fan.
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I'm not saying you are wrong but you seem to actively want it to go to shit.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
ferrasvansen said:
Nothing has changed yet, still in Europe, still in single market. This is as good as it gets, once things start happening i suspect you will disappear under a rock while the shit hits the fan.
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Well, we'll see. As for disappearing under a rock, I mean what can I say to that? No I won't?

I don't know why you're telling me "nothing has changed yet", I know that! You should have been saying that to the people in this thread and the previous one running around like headless chickens!
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Hazzuh said:
The EU have so many options as well that they can choose a deal where they don't even appear to be screwing us but still are. The tweets earlier about the French making the UK choose between it's banking sector and free movement seem like a very very smart way for the EU to proceed.
Click to expand...

As a matter of fact EU doesn't even need to do that. The current situation where it's just saying "single market is four freedoms, no concession about that" is actually as honest and rational as you can be. That is the base idea of EU, those are the rules that all countries and partners have to follow. UK has absolutely no leverage to demand a special treatment, they had a special treatment in the past as a member and just rejected it.

The French proposition as described in the tweet is actually a poisoned gift : it does make a concession about free movement (something I think is a mistake), but as a consequence it turns the offer into something the Leavers can't refuse. With the "four freedoms" stance, the UK negotiators could come back to the voters and say "we wanted border controls more than everything, we can't get that, how about we cancel the Brexit ?". With the free movement concession, it makes the Brexit impossible to avoid.
 
accel

accel

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Australia's economy has been fuelled by a mining boom driven by (pointless) Chinese construction. New Zealand is still basically a dairy commodity and tourism economy. The US pulled levers that the EU did not or could not politically or otherwise to stimulate recovery.

I have no idea what "behave as Europeans" is supposed to mean.
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It's a bit simplistic, don't you think? I mean, if UK was out of EU and have outperformed it, we could be talking about how UK was "obviously" going to do that based on it being in a unique position of sitting between the EU and the Americas, etc. The things you say might be true, but I am not convinced they are the whole story at all, especially when I see how backwards bureaucracies are.
 
N

Nivash

Member
ferrasvansen said:
Nothing has changed yet, still in Europe, still in single market. This is as good as it gets, once things start happening i suspect you will disappear under a rock while the shit hits the fan.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The only conclusion you can draw from the market recovery is that it's at least somewhat of an indicator that the economic damage to the UK and EU will stay contained and probably not trigger a global market crisis. I consider this a good thing, because that wasn't guaranteed. If the market ended up completely loosing confidence in the UK economy and the future of the EU it could have gotten real bad. This could change if negotiations stall or more EU members hint at leaving.

The UK is still in for a world of economic hurt if the corporate exodus kicks in or if they fail to secure a favorable trade deal. And it's going to be tangible damage too due to loss in production and competitiveness, unlike speculation based damage based on loss of confidence and skittish brokers, and tangible damage is much more difficult to recover from.
 
T

The Friendly Monster

Member
Alx said:
As a matter of fact EU doesn't even need to do that. The current situation where it's just saying "single market is four freedoms, no concession about that" is actually as honest and rational as you can be. That is the base idea of EU, those are the rules that all countries and partners have to follow. UK has absolutely no leverage to demand a special treatment, they had a special treatment in the past as a member and just rejected it.

The tweet about the French proposition is actually a poisoned gift : it does make a concession about free movement (something I think is a mistake), but as a consequence it turns the offer into something the Leavers can't refuse. With the "four freedoms" stance, the UK negotiators could come back to the voters and say "we wanted border controls more than everything, we can't get that, how about we cancel the Brexit ?". With the free movement concession, it makes the Brexit impossible to avoid.
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I would think the freedom of movement concession would be shot down (rightly) by the Eastern European countries. The negotiators can't return to the voters and then decide not to leave. Negotation only begins after a50. In any case it all seems moot to me, Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin will get a big chunk of the UK banking and financial services regardless, since passporting will be off the table.
 
M

Micael

Member
Nivash said:
Agreed. The only conclusion you can draw from the market recovery is that it's at least somewhat of an indicator that the economic damage to the UK and EU will stay contained and probably not trigger a global market crisis. I consider this a good thing, because that wasn't guaranteed. If the market ended up completely loosing confidence in the UK economy and the future of the EU it could have gotten real bad. This could change if negotiations stall or more EU members hint at leaving.

The UK is still in for a world of economic hurt if the corporate exodus kicks in or if they fail to secure a favorable trade deal. And it's going to be tangible damage too due to loss in production and competitiveness, unlike speculation based damage based on loss of confidence and skittish brokers, and tangible damage is much more difficult to recover from.
Click to expand...

The "funny" thing about this is that the more the UK market drops now, the lower the chances it is they will leave and vice versa.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
The Friendly Monster said:
The negotiators can't return to the voters and then decide not to leave. Negotation only begins after a50.
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We can't exclude a scenario where even after a50, UK and all EU members agree that it's best for everybody if we just forget about it.

The Friendly Monster said:
In any case it all seems moot to me, Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin will get a big chunk of the UK banking and financial services regardless, since passporting will be off the table.
Click to expand...

Which is why I think the rumoured concession on free movement is bait (if it is true). Paris doesn't need to compromise on anything to get the banks, the only purpose of such a concession would be to make sure UK will leave.
The only scenario where London doesn't lose passporting is the one where UK cancels Brexit (or London becomes independent, which sounds even crazier)
 
T

The Friendly Monster

Member
Alx said:
Which is why I think the rumoured concession on free movement is bait (if it is true). Paris doesn't need to compromise on anything to get the banks, the only purpose of such a concession would be to make sure UK will leave.
The only scenario where London doesn't lose passporting is the one where UK cancels Brexit (or London becomes independent, which sounds even crazier)
Click to expand...
You may be right. I wonder what people in the know actually think the chances of article 50 being invoked are.
 
N

Napoleonthechimp

Member
Most of all it is the anti-intellectualism that has really bothered me in the past few days. I've been in conversations with pridefully ignorant people who not only can't be bothered to hear what I have to say but have such a deep lack of understanding about anything that debating with them is like wading through waist deep mud.

These people are acting like the stereotypical Fox News watching conservatives we hear about in the USA.
 
T

Tak3n

Banned
Sky Sources

One of the reason Corbyn wont resign is he is desperate to do the 'official apology' after the Chillcot enquiry....

He wants to criticise Tony Blair, and some think he may even ask for TB to face a war crimes trial
 
K

klonere

Banned
Tak3n said:
Sky Sources

One of the reason Corbyn wont resign is he is desperate to do the 'official apology' after the Chillcot enquiry....

He wants to criticise Tony Blair, and some think he may even ask for TB to face a war crimes trial
Click to expand...

This man destroys his party for ONE weird speech!!! True or False????
 
B

BahamutPT

Member
The EU doesn't even have to put a new trade deal on the table once Article 50 is invoked. The wording only says the EU and Withdrawing State have to draft an exit agreement that takes into account framework for FUTURE relationships between the EU and the UK - which doesn't mean new deals have to be agreed upon during those negotiations.
Basically, the 2 years post Article 50 will most likely focus on settling all pending deals and how to phase-out EU laws, regulations, funding and programmes.
 
S

*Splinter

Member
Tak3n said:
Sky Sources

One of the reason Corbyn wont resign is he is desperate to do the 'official apology' after the Chillcot enquiry....

He wants to criticise Tony Blair, and some think he may even ask for TB to face a war crimes trial
Click to expand...
Oh yeah I've been meaning to ask about this

Why is it so important that Corbyn (or conversely, "the Blairite cabal") is in charge of the Labour party when the report is released? It obviously doesn't change the content of the report, so what is the relevance of the current Labour leadership?
 
T

The Friendly Monster

Member
Alx said:
We can't exclude a scenario where even after a50, UK and all EU members agree that it's best for everybody if we just forget about it.
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That sounds like fantasy to me, it would make the EU look a joke and too many countries will have an individual interest in the UK leaving for all of them to consent.
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
Napoleonthechimp said:
Most of all it is the anti-intellectualism that has really bothered me in the past few days. I've been in conversations with pridefully ignorant people who not only can't be bothered to hear what I have to say but have such a deep lack of understanding about anything that debating with them is like wading through waist deep mud.

These people are acting like the stereotypical Fox News watching conservatives we hear about in the USA.
Click to expand...


The problem I have is the leave side don't seem to have any limit to the damage they are prepared to take, so there's no conversation to have really. "It will be tough for 20 years", so we can start talking about it in 2036 maybe.
 
Z

Zaph

Member
Napoleonthechimp said:
Most of all it is the anti-intellectualism that has really bothered me in the past few days. I've been in conversations with pridefully ignorant people who not only can't be bothered to hear what I have to say but have such a deep lack of understanding about anything that debating with them is like wading through waist deep mud.

These people are acting like the stereotypical Fox News watching conservatives we hear about in the USA.
Click to expand...

Look at us on this forum. There are so many people here happy to explain things, in depth, one-to-one with Leavers and provide them with links and research to support points, yet there's still no getting through to them. Remain didn't stand a chance with these people.

Unfortunately Murdoch's media has done a number on this country, and the only way to snap people out of it is to let them feel the pain temporarily. I just hope enough pain can be brought about before the decision is irreversible.
 
GamingKaiju

GamingKaiju

Member
blackcrane said:
No disrespect to your vote, but you are talking about short term, while, chances are, your brother voted based on the long term.

Here's a thought as to why he might have leaned towards Leave as a better option in the long term: since the time EU has been founded, it has been outperformed economically by US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc. We aren't talking about China or South Korea here, they outperformed everyone to the moon and back. We are talking about folks who speak a european language and behave as europeans, but leave in places other than EU. These folks have all managed to put EU to shame. Maybe that's partly because EU is not a good way to move forward economically (ie, the super-government meddles with business too much)?

(I am not meaning to convert you or anyone else, just to illustrate that it is not so clear cut and that folks who voted Leave aren't lunatics.)
Click to expand...

I have no doubt that maybe things will be ok and work out for us but I can't help feel that we just made a massive mistake.

In 10-20 years and things are the same or worse I will look at this decision and smh.

In the Tory leadership contest Andrew Crabb sounds like an excellent choice for PM.
 
F

ferrasvansen

Member
PJV3 said:
The problem I have is the leave side don't seem to have any limit to the damage they are prepared to take, so there's no conversation to have really. "It will be tough for 20 years", so we can start talking about it in 2036 maybe.
Click to expand...


Thing is relying on 20 years in the future when the world is so on edge at the moment, with rise of terrorism, Russia, ISIS, North Korea and global warming, it is madness to think everything will be rosy then so stimulate growth again. We do not know what will happen in the intervening years.
 
C

call_kotaku

Member
Napoleonthechimp said:
Most of all it is the anti-intellectualism that has really bothered me in the past few days. I've been in conversations with pridefully ignorant people who not only can't be bothered to hear what I have to say but have such a deep lack of understanding about anything that debating with them is like wading through waist deep mud.

These people are acting like the stereotypical Fox News watching conservatives we hear about in the USA.
Click to expand...

In a way my false impression of the UK from popular British media just reinforces how "out of touch" one half of the population is from the other. I'd assumed Jeremy Clarkson was some radical right wing caricature but it turns out he's fairly moderate compared to a large swathe of the country. A large part of the country does talk about making Britain great again or good vs bad immigrants and whatnot, when for a long time I'd assumed British people were more progressive because they've already had their adventure with Empire and moved on.

I assumed the Daily Mail was some sort of sarcastic British prank on the rest of the world, not a legitimate world view for half the population.
 
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