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[LewieP]

Every time people bring up the undemocratic nature of the EU (which I don't believe is accurate) I always mention the 760 unelected lords that sit in the houses of parliament. But I suppose I can't expect people like that to have any understanding of their own government.

And the Queen.

Negotation about a trading deal outside of the EU can only happen if the leaving country informs the EU about the will to leave the EU. It's logic.

Were the rules different we could begin negotiations about what we can have after leaving before having begun the process of leaving.

The rules are set up such that the bargaining chip of "we might leave, we might not" is not available to any nations intending to leave.

 

[accel]

Yeah, if trading with the EU is like your bread and butter of your economy maybe you shouldn't leave it.

And you can negotiate a trade deal before the exit. You just need to trigger article 50, which provides a country with a safety net for atleast two years.

That's exactly what he is talking about. The EU are refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit in order to make it more difficult for you to quit. They will come to their senses, no doubt, but the initial negotiating position of "you are a fool for daring to leave and we will show you" is not exactly a good sign for any of the members.

 

[norinrad]

That's exactly what he is talking about. The EU are refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit in order to make it more difficult for you to quit. They will come to their senses, no doubt, but it will take some time.

We are dealing with a vindictive EU, well certain members. I think Germany and Holland have the right ideas on how to proceed with the UK .

 

[PdotMichael]

And the Queen.



Were the rules different we could begin negotiations about what we can have after leaving before having begun the process of leaving.

The rules are set up such that the bargaining chip of "we might leave, we might not" is not available to any nations intending to leave.

Why should the EU write an article about "we might leave, we might not" that would destabilize the Union in such a hard way?
Either you have the will to leave the EU or you don't. Anything else is just fishing for deals.

Pretty sure the UK as union doesn't have such an article in their constitution either.

 

[PJV3]

We keep trying to pin the fact the UK has done fuck all in the way of preparation on the EU.

What deal?, we voted to leave and nothing more concrete than that. Gove is happy to jump into the void, it's what the country voted for.

 

[Joni]

That's exactly what he is talking about. The EU are refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit in order to make it more difficult for you to quit. They will come to their senses, no doubt, but the initial negotiating position of "you are a fool for daring to leave and we will show you" is not exactly a good sign for any of the members.

They are simply stressing you are either in or out. The UK wants to have their cake but eat it too. The EU isn't vindictive, it is simply doing the obvious thing in a deal with a partner that clearly can't be trusted considering the last deal they made.

 

[d9b]

 

[accel]

They are simply stressing you are either in or out. The UK wants to have their cake but eat it too. The EU isn't vindictive, it is simply doing the obvious thing in a deal with a partner that clearly can't be trusted considering the last deal they made.

I don't see any "have their cake and eat it too". The UK wants to be out and it wants to work out a mutually beneficial trade deal, because the EU and the UK are big trade partners. Both processes take time, so the UK want to do both in parallel. The EU are saying "no, no, no, no, you have to do it one by one, we won't do it in parallel". Now, yes, obviously this is merely a starting negotiation position, but it is showing all the staying EU members what they might expect should they decide to leave as well (an ordeal).

 

[Azih]

The EU are refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit in order to make it more difficult for you to quit.

Well yes. Article 50 is how you leave. What's there to talk about if politically a decision hasn't even been made?

 

[Micael]

What on earth is this crap? Do people just see and hear what they want to see and hear? Could not even make it 5 minutes - this was so bad.

No idea what you are talking about, in the first 5 minutes it clearly shows how well informed and non biased this discussion is, what with comparing the EU to a prison, and more importantly the expert they got there to talk about it, saying that if they go along with the 2 year process he doubts they will ever get out, when in fact as soon as you activate article 50 you are guaranteed to get out, weather you are ready or not, but clearly the Illuminati wrote the EU laws to make countries think that, when they are secretly communicating with our alien overlords to take over those counties.

UK has demonstrated that nobody is free to leave EU. This is effectively achieved by EU refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit is complete. This means that if a country already is a member, and does significant trade with EU, it can never afford to leave.

If only there were laws in place that a country could look up to, and prepare in advance in the case they wanted to leave, oh wait there are.

 

[Chittagong]

Yeah, if trading with the EU is like your bread and butter of your economy maybe you shouldn't leave it.

And you can negotiate a trade deal before the exit. You just need to trigger article 50, which provides a country with a safety net for atleast two years.

According to EU trade commissioner trade negotiations won't happen during the two years after A50, but only after the country has fully exited. Which means it can't, effectively.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

So if a country does a meaningful amount of trade with EU, it can never afford to leave, everything else be damned.

 

[accel]

With respect to the UK leaving the EU, the "Just do it" line should be "Just file the papers already and I will pick on them for years, and by the way you aren't getting your car".

Well yes. Article 50 is how you leave. What's there to talk about if politically a decision hasn't even been made?

Sure, the UK has to invoke A50 first. I am commenting on the various grand standings of the EU folks who are saying that they won't have any talks about future trade not just before A50 is invoked but also in the two-year-max period after.

 

[Micerider]

Afaik the problem is that. You trigger a50 then negotiate, but that means you can't go back even if the deal is bad. So technically you have left before knowing the deal.

Honnnneeyy. I'm not sure if I want to divorce yet. Could you confirm I could use your car still or "dip my biscuit in your pumpkin pie" when I feel like it?

 

[blu]

Negotation about a trading deal outside of the EU can only happen if the leaving country informs the EU about the will to leave the EU. It's logic.

- Uhhhh, guys, hypothetically, what kinds of concessions could we get from the EU if we left the union?
- You get no concessions, you're with the rest of the world once you're out.
- But we're a member, goddamit.

Having a cake, etc.

 

[Harmen]

I don't think the Germany part was necessary (�&#56848 but I want you to know that I got your joke.

Leaving the EU would be INSANE for the Dutch. The Dutch economy is pretty much part of the EU economy. I can't fathom how anyone could even make an argument for NEXIT, seeing how the UK is doing right now.

But since facts didn't really matter that much in the referendum and those dangerous anti-EU politicians just shout SOVEREIGNTY and CONTROL all the time, who knows.

I absolutely trust our government to know that is economic suicide. Sure, we have Wilders spouting about it and he does get votes for it, but basically any other party have said it isn't feasible for us, some even with pretty strong words. One of our politicians straight out called Boris Johnson "that idiot" in a debate.

That said, if there is a Nexit I am going to move to another country for sure. My field of word is very international.

 

[LewieP]

Why should the EU write an article about "we might leave, we might not" that would destabilize the Union in such a hard way?
Either you have the will to leave the EU or you don't. Anything else is just fishing for deals.

Pretty sure the UK as union doesn't have such an article in their constitution either.

I never said that this EU policy was wrong. It's obviously a good way of protecting stability.

Most sane countries would never leave without a plan in place for what replaces their membership. As you say, to allow such negotiations to occur before the country has fully committed to an exit would be dangerous.

 

[justjohn]

It's really amazing how I swing between despair and hope. One minute I think everything will be fine, then I'd read some article and it's back to pure gloom.

 

[cormack12]

So something hasn't added up to me these past couple of days, but now I feel like I'm a conspiracy theorist. Gove is only running to give Boris a get-out clause to run again, right?

Depends, Boris is ruined in the public eye. If May does well, she'll secure a second term. I can't see Gove securing a second term, but I also can't see a Tory majority in the next GE with Gove getting in now.

I always find it crazy how tradesman like builders etc. always blame immigrants for the decline in their wages. If anything it's opened up a competitive market. Usually I do things on my own, so I have a good idea of prices and materials. Honestly, the labour some of these clowns put on is insane. It's like they want to be able to set their own prices but have a high minimum cost as well to not be undercut.

I had a new kitchen fitted last year now. Now, I know how much trade prices are at Howdens, and it was just a refresh ready for sale so I didn't want to spend a fortune. First two guys (White British), came over priced kitchen from B&Q and IKEA. Let's say it was £2000, the labour was £4000. That's split between two guys for four days (tiny kitchen, like 7 units) and no extras like skimming, appliances. So £500 a day, that's more expensive than my time. Second local guys come round, tut a lot and it's the same sort of ballpark, they said £5000 for fitting as they needed to move an electric outlet. Eventually (after a fortnight), got hold of a number for some guys a few miles away who were recommended. Came out, priced the kitchen at trade prices and charged £4200 all in. So that was a labour cost of £2200 for two guys over four days (just shy of £300 a day each), which in my opinion is fair price for hard work. And the fitting was fantastic too, I'm quite particular, so the piping was redone and refastened, gas was re-routed and valves put back in, access holes were cut into the back of the cupboards. Really good neat job.

In the place before this, I was getting the garden done. Tried a few local British guys. Bear in mind all I wanted was relaying of approx. 32 flags (and a step for the front door. Materials here would cost about £300 tops here if bought specifically. Guy quotes me £1000 for a single man, single day job. Ridiculous. Second guy tries to persuade me I need a footer under the window and a flower bed, and I should use Indian stone to pushed cost up to £1800. I told him no, he said as-is the job isn't worth coming out to for him. I left it for a good while until I got a flyer through the door from some Irish travellers in the area. Came out, full job, all in £600 - one guy probably earned £400 labour for that days work. 8am and I think he finished at around 7pm, and that was because he chose to take a rotten tree stump out which I said he could leave.

Fast forward to the house I'm in now, I wanted to get the garden done. This time I couldn't find anyone. I just wanted gravel laying, decking and a pergola. I had a cost in mind of about £4000 which I was willing to pay so I didn't have to deal with it. No one came in under £8000, so I did it myself for £1980 (took me best part of a month though)

As for immigrants speaking in their own language, who cares? This is like the straight guy who imagines every gay guy is eyeing him up, ready to pounce. These people likely feel afraid now, there's little context as well - maybe a comment made in the past jokingly now lingers in their minds. Hell, the mess we're in is hard enough for us to communicate to each other in our native language. I imagine it's easier for them to chat about it in language they are actually 100% fluent in. I walk in Welsh shops and they're speaking Welsh when I walk in - I don't assume they're slagging me off. I certainly wouldn't be resigning because I thought people were talking about me, in any language. It's illogical.

 

[Palculator]

I don't see any "have their cake and eat it too". The UK wants to be out and it wants to work out a mutually beneficial trade deal, because the EU and the UK are big trade partners. Both processes take time, so the UK want to do both in parallel. The EU are saying "no, no, no, no, you have to do it one by one, we won't do it in parallel". Now, yes, obviously this is merely a starting negotiation position, but it is showing all the staying EU members what they might expect should they decide to leave as well (an ordeal).

As I understand it, and I'm obviously not an expert, actually disentangling yourself to be fully separate from the European Union will be a massive organisational effort that will dominate the negotiations after article 50 is triggered. And since these negotiations would have a direct effect on trade, trying to negotiate a trade agreement, something that's also non-trivial if you look at how long actual trade agreements are negotiated for, would be kind of silly because they can interfere with each other. Before anyone knows how a Post-EU-UK operates, coming to terms as to which trade agreement is beneficial to both parties isn't an easy task.

That said, I also feel like there's some resentment motivating the EU's decision to postpone trade negotiations until after completing the exit, but I wouldn't say that's the only reason for it.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

UK has demonstrated that nobody is free to leave EU. This is effectively achieved by EU refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit is complete. This means that if a country already is a member, and does significant trade with EU, it can never afford to leave.

Makes sense though.
Why would you negotiate a trade deal with someone who is still a member? They're already enjoying the benefits of being a member. Trade deals are only for third countries, and in order to become a third country you need to exit.

This is only logical. Everyone can leave the EU. But they have to actually leave it. I don't know why the UK suddenly wants to go around the terms of contract. You can't be a member and at the same time not be a member.

The truth is that there are large factions that want to leave the EU. For nationalistic, short-sighted and sometimes bigoted reasons. Except they can't, because the reality of our world id against these things and prosperity can only come when you grow out of them.

 

[TheLegendOfMart]

According to EU trade commissioner trade negotiations won't happen during the two years after A50, but only after the country has fully exited. Which means it can't, effectively.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

So if a country does a meaningful amount of trade with EU, it can never afford to leave, everything else be damned.

So they wont deal with us until the PM invokes A50 but then they wont deal with us out of spite until we have fully exited in 2 years time?

Either way we are fucked?

So that is basically extortion, it's your choice to leave but leaving would be bad for you so you better stay with us.

I am beginning to lean towards Leavers.

 

[Ashes]

In their own words:

Brexit: The immigrants who voted Leave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36686361

It's only a couple of minutes. And you very quickly get the generational divide too.

 

[d9b]

It's a farce at this stage. This is rest of the Europe right now:

 

[Micael]

Makes sense though.
Why would you negotiate a trade deal with someone who is still a member? They're already enjoying the benefits of being a member. Trade deals are only for third countries, and in order to become a third country you need to exit.

This is only logical. Everyone can leave the EU. But they have to actually leave it. I don't know why the UK suddenly wants to go around the terms of contract.

The truth is that there are large factions that want to leave the EU. For nationalistic, short-sighted and sometimes bigoted reasons. Except they can't, because the reality of our world id against these things and prosperity can only come when you grow out of them.

Far more importantly, if you could negotiate deals before leaving, the EU would spend a massive amount of time with countries trying to negotiate leave deals, as a way to force better deals than what they currently have, since it would be an effective strategy given how any country leaving is destabilizing.

So they wont deal with us until the PM invokes A50 but then they wont deal with us out of spite until we have fully exited in 2 years time?

Either way we are fucked?

So that is basically extortion, it's your choice to leave but leaving would be bad for you so you better stay with us.

I am beginning to lean towards Leavers.

I wouldn't take what 1 person says as the official position of the EU, the EU being a democracy and all that.

 

[Palculator]

Real life Malcolm Tucker laying the smack down.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Yes. There will be no negotiating about trade deals until article 50 begins and ends. And the UK is officially no longer a member.
Then it can approach as a third country and negotiate a trade deal.
Problem is that article 50 itself takes a few years.
Then you have the actual trade deal negotiation, which the UK will be doing as a third country and has no member status or rights in the EU. And this process itself can take years. It was something like 6 to 8 years for Canada.

 

[PJV3]

So they wont deal with us until the PM invokes A50 but then they wont deal with us out of spite until we have fully exited in 2 years time?

Either way we are fucked?

We have to deal with the divorce and I imagine it's going to be hard enough by itself. They will deal with us in the order that suits them, if it goes well without much chest thumping they might be more constructive later.

 

[Chittagong]

So they wont deal with us until the PM invokes A50 but then they wont deal with us out of spite until we have fully exited in 2 years time?

Either way we are fucked?

Well, the only simple way UK is not fucked is not triggering A50. Which the EU officials are trying to achieve by saying there will be no trade negotiations until UK has fully left - they are trying to make triggering A50 so expensive UK doesn't dare to do it.

Dropping to WTO terms with EU for an undefined amount of years after Brexit would be disastrous to UK, which is why it wanted to use the 2 years to negotiate the relationship with EU countries on day one. So, one can not leave EU.

 

[Theonik]

UK has demonstrated that nobody is free to leave EU. This is effectively achieved by EU refusing to negotiate a trade deal before the exit is complete. This means that if a country already is a member, and does significant trade with EU, it can never afford to leave.

In the words of Eagles/Y.Varoufakis, "You can check out any time you like / But you can never leave!"

 

[OnkelC]

It's a farce at this stage. This is rest of the Europe right now:

For me, that is true.

 

[Chittagong]

I wouldn't take what 1 person says as the official position of the EU, the EU being a democracy and all that.

One person is EU Trade Commissioner tho

 

[FlammableD]

But we're back to the point: you don't get to pick and choose which bits you want. We had the closest anyone got to picking and choosing, and we voted to leave it.

We're voting to leave the trade deal

 

[TheLegendOfMart]

Well, the only simple way UK is not fucked is not triggering A50. Which the EU officials are trying to achieve by saying there will be no trade negotiations until UK has fully left - they are trying to make triggering A50 so expensive UK doesn't dare to do it.

Dropping to WTO terms with EU for an undefined amount of years after Brexit would be disastrous to UK, which is why it wanted to use the 2 years to negotiate the relationship with EU countries on day one. So, one can not leave EU.

So it IS basically extortion then, pay us money, we make your rules, if you don't like it then leave but if you try to leave we will use our power to ruin you.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

One person is EU Trade Commissioner tho

Pretty much the person in charge of trade in the EU. Lol

 

[Micael]

One person is EU Trade Commissioner tho

Sure, and should we take Farage as an example of what the UK is going to do?
The EU is very much still a democracy, more importantly than that, it is still not in the best interest of the EU to just do absolutely nothing after the UK triggers article 50, there will be a lot of deals to be made to secure things like the immigrant rights of the people that are already in the UK, and the EU still wants to trade with the UK, because it is in the best interest of the EU to continue trading with the UK, even if it's in the best interest of the EU to have the UK out of the EU at this point.

 

[PdotMichael]

One person is EU Trade Commissioner tho

Bad cop, good cop.

The EU states are still interested in trading with a post-EU UK, even it isn't anymore under UK terms like in the past decades.

 

[OnkelC]

Well, the only simple way UK is not fucked is not triggering A50. Which the EU officials are trying to achieve by saying there will be no trade negotiations until UK has fully left - they are trying to make triggering A50 so expensive UK doesn't dare to do it.

Dropping to WTO terms with EU for an undefined amount of years after Brexit would be disastrous to UK, which is why it wanted to use the 2 years to negotiate the relationship with EU countries on day one. So, one can not leave EU.

One can leave EU, but has to live with the consequences of the decision, as with every decision in life.
If the majority of the voting public is not informed enough before casting their vote or is following false prophets because they are promised simple solutions, they and only they themselves are to blaim.

 

[dumbo]

So they wont deal with us until the PM invokes A50 but then they wont deal with us out of spite until we have fully exited in 2 years time?

The person making those comments is a commissioner. Her primary job is to ensure that her department follows the rules set out for it.

So, basically she took legal advice, and that's what her lawyers told her - she does not have the authority to negotiate whilst we are a member of the EU. (much as our government could/should have taken legal advice and received the same answer).

As she is basically a 'top civil servant', she has no power to change those rules.

So, if we want to negotiate before we exit, then we'd need to ask the Council. Some countries may be willing to accept that, others might not.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

The UK can threaten EU migrants. But there are also Britons, over a million, in the EU.
For every bargaining chip, the EU has as bigger one.
This whole thing was a mistake. Lol

 

[Chittagong]

The only way I can see UK could force EU to negotiating table is threaten to postpone A50 indefinitely and then veto the fuck out of everything EU is trying to do. In fact, typing that now, that's exactly what I think will happen.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Wasnt the UK doing that already in the past 40 odd years?

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

For me, that is true.

Well we best rush it all along because it's inconveniencing the average joe!

 

[Micael]

The only way I can see UK could force EU to negotiating table is threaten to postpone A50 indefinitely and then veto the fuck out of everything EU is trying to do. In fact, typing that now, that's exactly what I think will happen.

Given how loosely article 50 is defined, If the UK did that, all the EU would have to do is consider that and the referendum as a declaration of it's intention to leave, and no one in the EU would oppose that assessment, because everyone would hate the UK.
If this were to happen the UK would be severely screwed in any future negotiations.

 

[blu]

But we're back to the point: you don't get to pick and choose which bits you want. We had the closest anyone got to picking and choosing, and we voted to leave it.

We're voting to leave the trade deal

Precisely. UK was always 'special' in the EU. Clearly that was not enough, though. So now some circles in the UK think they could be even more special, but that won't go with the rest of the club.

 

[d9b]

The only way I can see UK could force EU to negotiating table is threaten to postpone A50 indefinitely and then veto the fuck out of everything EU is trying to do. In fact, typing that now, that's exactly what I think will happen.

Or just leave and make Britain great again with Boris, Gove and Farage. Just do it already.

 

[Kathian]

The only way I can see UK could force EU to negotiating table is threaten to postpone A50 indefinitely and then veto the fuck out of everything EU is trying to do. In fact, typing that now, that's exactly what I think will happen.

The UK could have done this to get a better renegotiation. It didn't. Why? Because no serious country would enter into treaties with the UK in which this sort of abuse can happen.

A50 is the means of leaving. The UK is a signatory. Crippling the EU would also negatively impacting the UK economy and also make all EU countries (and remember they only need 1 of 27 to fuck us).

There will also be a breaking point for the EU I suspect.

 

[Chittagong]

Given how loosely article 50 is defined, If the UK did that, all the EU would have to do is consider that and the referendum as a declaration of it's intention to leave, and no one in the EU would oppose that assessment, because everyone would hate the UK.
If this were to happen the UK would be severely screwed in any future negotiations.

UK might veto it tho

 

[Makareu]

So it IS basically extortion then, pay us money, we make your rules, if you don't like it then leave but if you try to leave we will use our power to ruin you.

Yes, the UK has a divine right to benefit from the single market without fully committing (euro) and is entitled to ask for preferential status every few years (last time was just a few months before the referendum).

And when the UK decides to pull out, affecting 27 other countries, the interest of those countries should be completly ignored in order to give UK the time to sort a mess they have created themselves through a democratic decision with no external pressure.

 

[Theonik]

So it IS basically extortion then, pay us money, we make your rules, if you don't like it then leave but if you try to leave we will use our power to ruin you.

You say it is extortion, but the EU is under no obligation to give you something for nothing. You want the EU to give you nice things? You play by the rules. If you stay in you get to help write the rules in a way that they are mutually beneficial. You want to leave? You can do that, but if you want to keep enjoying the benefits you need to play by those rules only that if you want out the other parties will treat you as an outsider. And the EU was designed to protect its members by crushing outsiders.

 

[John Dunbar]

UK might veto it tho

could the uk veto anything after article 50 has been invoked?