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[Arksy]

I'm not entirely disagreeing - but if the heads of the EU go full on to punish the UK, do you not think referedum calling movements across Europe will push the point 'Do we really want to be part of an EU system that purposefully kicks a nation this way when the public hold a democratic vote'

Again, should the EU let the UK lie in their bed and face the consequences - yes. Should the EU go all out hostile in attacking and kicking the shit out of the UK - if you think that's a good idea, that's equally going to have consequences.

The EU can survive without the UK, but should another giant economy join them, such as France or Italy, that's probably it.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Offering Norway terms to the UK would neither be punishment nor favouring. And this is what the EU wants to give the UK. Leave campaign can take all the time they want, but the EU has already made up its mind and leavers know this.

 

[Zaph]

I think the best analogy I can come up with for the leave side is that they have just won the lottery and are so shocked they can't think of what to do. Now we just have to hope they sensibly invest their cash instead of blowing it all on Lamborghinis.

With a lottery at least their is actual cash after the shock wears off.

In this analogy, replace the cash with a steaming pile of shit.

 

[Burai]

I think the best analogy I can come up with for the leave side is that they have just won the lottery and are so shocked they can't think of what to do. Now we just have to hope they sensibly invest their cash instead of blowing it all on Lamborghinis.

Maybe they literally won the lottery on Friday and their syndicate isn't going to bother turning up to work any more.

That would explain why they are so quiet.

 

[Kadayi]

This cannot be stated enough, very true regardless of whether you voted Remain or Leave.

I wanted Remain. I'm disappointed. I do not agree there should be a second ref and I believe we should now do it, HOWEVER - this absolutely cannot be rushed and the EU trying to rush the issue (whether it be for stability or not) is as disgraceful as our Government currently imploding on itself.

It's not about rushing the process (that's going to take 2 years minimum, probably longer). It's about Cameron formally announcing the withdrawal to the EU so the process can in fact start, and the road map of withdrawal be drawn up. Before the referendum, he publicly stated he would do this, and now he's talking about waiting until a new leader is elected in October. The world at large isn't going to wait for four months to pass, just because Cameron wants to pass the buck on the poison chalice to someone else. UK stability is more important that Cameron's pride at the end of the day.

I'm not entirely disagreeing - but if the heads of the EU go full on to punish the UK, do you not think referedum calling movements across Europe will push the point 'Do we really want to be part of an EU system that purposefully kicks a nation this way when the public hold a democratic vote'

Again, should the EU let the UK lie in their bed and face the consequences - yes. Should the EU go all out hostile in attacking and kicking the shit out of the UK - if you think that's a good idea, that's equally going to have consequences.

Agreed. Remain spent their entire campaign trading on fear, and look at the outcome. You don't sell membership of an institution through fear, you sell it through promoting the actual benefits.

 

[liquidtmd]

The EU can survive without the UK, but should another giant economy join them, such as France or Italy, that's probably it.

Understood - but if they use Fear to hold the local systems in line, soon enough you're going to find X-Wings going for their exhaust ports

 

[norinrad]

Yes, I agree. This wasn't some accident the UK stumbled into, this was quite deliberate on the part of much of the electorate. Perhaps politicians like Boris Johnson thought they could just exploit this sentiment for political gain and not have to pay the price of actually leaving the EU, but they should have known better. When you stoke people's fears and anger, you reap what you sow. They channelled people's rightful outrage at being forgotten into anger at the EU (in my opinion, entirely the wrong target), and one should never underestimate the power of an angry electorate.

We have the same issue here slowly brewing and most people just ignore it or just laugh it off. I used to work with a guy who for some strange reason had a huge disdain for Polish people, I could never wrap my head around his hate, absolutely mental. During the Ukrainian referendum he threatened to stop talking to me if vote against it lol. We as a country need to address these problems. There are more of such people than the educated and when they come out of the woodwork they come in droves.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The Economist on likely outcomes.

The priority for the rest of the EU will be to make sure that nobody follows Britain’s example. That precludes giving Britain a good deal. Leavers have retorted that, because Britain imports more from the EU than it sells to it, the other countries must offer a generous free-trade deal. But this betrays a misunderstanding of both EU politics and trade talks. The EU cannot let Britain have full access to the single market without its obligations lest others ask for similar treatment. And Germany cannot offer Britain anything on its own, however strongly its carmakers push for it. Any deal must be approved by all 27 countries, several of which do little trade with Britain. Spanish carmakers might like tariffs on cars traded between Britain and Germany. Romania sees little gain in a free-trade deal that lets Britain block immigration.

In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EU’s with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.

The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.

The economic and trade problems arising from Brexit will dominate British politics for years to come. Security and foreign-policy concerns will also emerge. The home secretary, the security services and the police may try to replicate the co-ordinating measures that they have in place now with the rest of the EU, notably on intelligence-sharing. The Foreign Office may try to maintain its input into the EU’s foreign-policy discussions. But none of this will be easy and some may be impossible.

 

[jufonuk]

Offering Norway terms to the UK would neither be punishment nor favouring. And this is what the EU wants to give the UK. Leave campaign can take all the time they want, but the EU has already made up its mind and leavers know this.

Under noway model are we allowed into Europe to visit and work/lice Europeans too with England ?
Please take Norwegian model yoy fucked up England don't be more twatish

 

[SamVimes]

The EU can survive without the UK, but should another giant economy join them, such as France or Italy, that's probably it.

Spain is still very much pro EU, in Italy the only party that wants to leave is Lega Nord, which is basically UKIP but also secessionist.

 

[Arksy]

Understood - but if they use Fear to hold the local systems in line, soon enough you're going to find X-Wings going for their exhaust ports

I was agreeing with your sentiment. The EU could probably survive a few countries in the periphery joining the UK (in leaving), such as The Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden, but not Italy or France. If a big economy that uses the Euro left, it would destabilise the whole thing.

Spain is still very much pro EU, in Italy the only party that wants to leave is Lega Nord, which is basically UKIP but also secessionist.

I'm not saying they WILL leave, but if one of those big economies did, both the Euro and the EU would be finished. The biggest risk for the EU are the market oriented economies like Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. They are the most likely to leave the EU as they've lost their biggest pro-market ally in the bloc.

Edit: I should say it might be difficult to survive if even the NL left, they're a pretty massive economy as well.

 

[Kabouter]

I'm not saying they WILL leave, but if one of those big economies did, both the Euro and the EU would be finished. The biggest risk for the EU are the market oriented economies like Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. They are the most likely to leave the EU as they've lost their biggest pro-market ally in the bloc.

But people who are actually pro-market are likely wise enough to see that the Dutch economy is essentially part of the German one, and a departure from the common market would hurt many times as much as Britain's departure could ever hurt it. Should the Netherlands ever leave the EU, it won't be because of pro-market forces.

 

[Cromwell]

Sturgeon on Andrew Marr right now, she's completely dedicated to becoming independent and rejoining the EU. So everyone saying they won't or whatever, you can stop now.

 

[oti]

I'm not saying they WILL leave, but if one of those big economies did, both the Euro and the EU would be finished. The biggest risk for the EU are the market oriented economies like Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. They are the most likely to leave the EU as they've lost their biggest pro-market ally in the bloc.

Edit: I should say it might be difficult to survive if even the NL left, they're a pretty massive economy as well.

I hope the rest of the EU sees the UK and is smart enough to not be like the UK.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Under noway model are we allowed into Europe to visit and work/lice Europeans too with England ?
Please take Norwegian model yoy fucked up England don't be more twatish

As noted in the quoted article text, Norway:

• Observes EU single-market regulations;
• Does not have representation in making them;
• Pays into the European budget; and
• Accepts free movement of people.

In exchange for full access to the single market.

As noted by that poster, this wouldn't be punishment nor favour.

 

[liquidtmd]

I was agreeing with your sentiment. The EU could probably survive a few countries in the periphery joining the UK, such as The Netherlands, Denmark or Sweden, but not Italy or France. If a big economy that uses the Euro left, it would destabilise the whole thing.

Agree - and I do understand the dilemma this leaves the Heads of EU. I just hope they see the logic in not coming across too much 'WE WILL MAKE THEM PAY FOR THEIR INSUBORDINATION', otherwise this may inflame and galvanise the far right movements across the continent.

Believe me, many of us are hurting here in the UK already. We do blame the Leave Campaign and our leadership. We appeal to the EU to keep a calm head here where are Government and populace has failed to.

 

[Arksy]

But people who are actually pro-market are likely wise enough to see that the Dutch economy is essentially part of the German one, and a departure from the common market would hurt many times as much as Britain's departure could ever hurt it. Should the Netherlands ever leave the EU, it won't be because of pro-market forces.

I agree. I doubt they would contemplate leaving the common market. The political structures of the EU however? Maybe. Who knows? I certainly don't.

 

[Alx]

It is, because of the 2-year clock in article 50.

But that clock makes sure it's not rushed, actually. How long do you need for such negociations ? Two years already sound like a lot of time.
I can understand many people wanting to stay in EU as long as possible, but once the decision has been made, it's best for everybody to start working on the future rather than dragging one's feet.

 

[GamerMax73]

That seems to be what's happening with Labour too. They wanted someone in the mould of Blair, etc and they got him. In their faces.

If you're thinking of Corbyn he is so far from the Blair mould that if that is what the grassroots were aiming for they got it extremely wrong. Corbyn's politics is much further left of center. Closer to a modern day Kinnock, and equally unelectable because England is naturally Tory (which is how Blair gained power). Also explains how UKIP is eating up Labour heartlands and pretty much the Parliamentary Party coup playing out this morning.

 

[Kabouter]

I agree. I doubt they would contemplate leaving the common market. The political structures of the EU however? Maybe. Who knows? I certainly don't.

The only difference between remaining and just leaving the political structures is having no say in things anymore, I don't see why anyone would want that.

Edit: Also, don't forget that as one of the largest exporting nations in the world, the Netherlands is one of the major beneficiaries of the Euro.

 

[anonymous_abc]

I agree. I doubt they would contemplate leaving the common market. The political structures of the EU however? Maybe. Who knows? I certainly don't.

Not everyone can have their cake and eat it too...

 

[Xando]

As noted in the quoted article text, Norway:

• Observes EU single-market regulations;
• Does not have representation in making them;
• Pays into the European budget; and
• Accepts free movement of people.

In exchange for full access to the single market.

As noted by that poster, this wouldn't be punishment nor favour.

So basically everything they voted against or even worse terms.

 

[Lime]

The Economist on likely outcomes.

Such a clusterfuck.

Good job, Britain!

 

[Izuna]

Brexit to cause immigration surge as 500,000 East Europeans 'will rush in before borders close'

.................... I don't know what to say. Apparently they know something about the borders closing.

 

[Lime]

.................... I don't know what to say. Apparently they know something about the borders closing.

Fear mongering

A whole bunch of UKIP and racists on Twitter are screaming about this and wanting to close the border immediately.

Not many people would want to migrate to the UK given its fucked up future and nosedive of an economy

 

[Zaph]

The Economist on likely outcomes.

So, at best, trade gets harder and none of the things Brexiters wanted actually happen. But all that was just fear mongering, amirite?

 

[jufonuk]

Sturgeon on Andrew Marr right now, she's completely dedicated to becoming independent and rejoining the EU. So everyone saying they won't or whatever, you can stop now.

As noted in the quoted article text, Norway:

• Observes EU single-market regulations;
• Does not have representation in making them;
• Pays into the European budget; and
• Accepts free movement of people.

In exchange for full access to the single market.

As noted by that poster, this wouldn't be punishment nor favour.

Well i hope this is the model they take as it will allow the Uk to pursue outside markets to ? They will spin it t as a victory o guess of some kind

 

[guit3457]

This is a good analysis about the Norway-EU deal:

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/

 

[Melchettsmoustache]

Too bad. They need to be made an example of because the entire world needs to see that giving in to fear mongering, lying, right wing nutjobs only brings ruin. Placating them is the absolute last thing they should do. The responsibility of any lives affected or jobs lost lies with the Leave campaign and the people who voted for them, no one else.

Despite voting remain and being thoroughly pissed off about the result.

You can call it giving in to whatever you like, however you are basically saying that a fair democratic process should result in punishment because you don't like the result. You do that and those agitating for referendums in other countries will simply frame the EU leadership as being even more anti democratic and punishing the disenfranchised.

I'd also suggest that large economic power houses across Europe don't want 61 million people to instantly cease trading with them. European businesses don't want one of the leading world economies alienated any faster than it needs to be.

 

[oti]

Such a clusterfuck.

Good job, Britain!

The irony is that none of this was a secret before the referendum. This truly will go down in history as the moment an entire nation played itself.

 

[Tak3n]

Under noway model are we allowed into Europe to visit and work/lice Europeans too with England ?
Please take Norwegian model yoy fucked up England don't be more twatish

if we accept the Norway model then there was literally no point in doing the referendum....

it feels like people are happy to point out that the leave campaign won because of immigration, but then want the UK to ignore that and do a deal that allows free movement..

The two can not go together

 

[Fritz]

The Economist on likely outcomes.

That's like the most sober look I have read about it. Sounds apt to me.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Well i hope this is the model they take as it will allow the Uk to pursue outside markets to ? They will spin it t as a victory o guess of some kind

Throughout this whole campaign it's something I never understood.
Who exactly can the UK currently not trade with that they are so eager to get out of the union in order to do so?

 

[shinra-bansho]

So basically everything they voted against or even worse terms.

So, at best, trade gets harder and none of the things Brexiters wanted actually happen. But all that was just fear mongering, amirite?

If they want to preserve their access to the single market, but be outside of the EU, then yes, pretty much.

This would be fair treatment. And the UK actually had special treatment within the EU, one should recall.

if we accept the Norway model then there was literally no point in doing the referendum....

it feels like people are happy to point out that the leave campaign won because of immigration, but then want the UK to ignore that and do a deal that allows free movement..

The two can not go together

Then you simply don't get to preserve the market access. The UK can negotiate a trade deal over the years following the exit. Market access would presumably revert to WTO in the absence of that or in the interim. But there's no reason it should get any special treatment (anymore).

This is what was voted for.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Amazing how relaxed Brexiters are being. It's almost as if they don't fully appreciate the enormity or their actions and expect other people to sort it out.

It's definitely enormous, no denying that. You only need to see the flip flopping of rhetoric from remain, leave and the EU.

Remain now denying the punishment budget and that some of the doomsday forecasts on Andrew Marr.

 

[geordiemp]

Sturgeon on Andrew Marr right now, she's completely dedicated to becoming independent and rejoining the EU. So everyone saying they won't or whatever, you can stop now.

Water is wet ? No change there then

 

[Hasney]

Saqib Javid is being a slimey cunt on Andrew Marr, basically after saying how many jobs would be lost and the economy shrinking was part of a "robust campaign" and now we just need to work together while avoiding that totally. Lovely.

 

[Deleted member 10571]

I can concur with that. Hamburg is a wonderful and welcoming city.

and everyone here hates GAF meetups >_>

 

[anonymous_abc]

if we accept the Norway model then there was literally no point in doing the referendum....

it feels like people are happy to point out that the leave campaign won because of immigration, but then want the UK to ignore that and do a deal that allows free movement..

The two can not go together

What's wrong with that
Retainers can point out the obvious flaws in what (most?) leavers want and then want something else entirely...
And the leaders of the leave campaign brought the Norway model (or something similar) into play themselves...

 

[Xando]

if we accept the Norway model then there was literally no point in doing the referendum....

it feels like people are happy to point out that the leave campaign won because of immigration, but then want the UK to ignore that and do a deal that allows free movement..

The two can not go together

Well you're not getting anything better anymore. With the leave vote winning it's over for picking what you want. This time it's either accept it or use WTO trade rules

 

[PJV3]

It's definitely enormous, no denying that. You only need to see the flip flopping of rhetoric from remain, leave and the EU.

Remain now denying the punishment budget and that some of the doomsday forecasts on Andrew Marr.

He doesn't know, look at the fear in his eyes.

 

[PdotMichael]

Love the fact that there is no fucking endgame scenario from the Brexit crows except the mindset that the UK is entitled to a good deal because reasons.

 

[Cromwell]

Despite voting remain and being thoroughly pissed off about the result.

You can call it giving in to whatever you like, however you are basically saying that a fair democratic process should result in punishment because you don't like the result. You do that and those agitating for referendums in other countries will simply frame the EU leadership as being even more anti democratic and punishing the disenfranchised.

I'd also suggest that large economic power houses across Europe don't want 61 million people to instantly cease trading with them. European businesses don't want one of the leading world economies alienated any faster than it needs to be.

They shouldn't go out of their way to punish them, but they shouldn't give them extra help to fix the terrible predicament they put themselves in. UKIP or whoever is in power will manipulate optics to make it look like everything worked out on their own shoulders, not the EU. The global population won't pay attention unless things are shown for how they truly are.

 

[Mivey]

So, at best, trade gets harder and none of the things Brexiters wanted actually happen. But all that was just fear mongering, amirite?

There also rumors and theories about a sort of "special membership" where they would only leave in name, but still have a better deal then Norway, maybe on what they pay.
But no matter what, I cannot see the EU ever agreeing on letting UK stay in the single market without letting giving EU citizens and companies the 4 freedoms. That's not a matter of negotiation, that would be akin to brainwashing all 27 other members, since they would then be worse off.

 

[Hasney]

He doesn't know, look at the fear in his eyes.

Yeah, while Marr was listing everything he said about how bad leaving would be, did you see that eyebrow twitch?

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

if we accept the Norway model then there was literally no point in doing the referendum....

it feels like people are happy to point out that the leave campaign won because of immigration, but then want the UK to ignore that and do a deal that allows free movement..

The two can not go together

This is exactly the reason Cameron stepped down. Anyone with experience with the EU knows that's exactly what is going g to happen. You get drafted terms and you either accept them or move on. Especially considering the situation the EU finds itself at the moment. This is the reason Johnson and Gove are nowhere to be seen, because they know this is what will happen.

The remain campaign has pointed out many times that this is what would happen. In fact the leave campaign said as much. They ran on 'getting the Norway type deal' and now that this is looking to be the case, they are trembling.

 

[Bedlam]

It is, because of the 2-year clock in article 50.

It can be extended and it likely will be extended.

 

[Arksy]

As noted in the quoted article text, Norway:

• Observes EU single-market regulations;
• Does not have representation in making them;
• Pays into the European budget; and
• Accepts free movement of people.

In exchange for full access to the single market.

As noted by that poster, this wouldn't be punishment nor favour.

1. Yes it does, but it doesn't observe all of them...it retains the right to reject any regulation it deems fit to. That, to me, is the essential part. As such, they're not a part of the CFP or the CAP.

2. That's 100% true. They have influence but can do very little.

3. Also true. The UK will likely remain a part of the common market and therefore contribute. The difference will be that our contribution will likely be far smaller, and we will not be dragged into paying for bailouts, emergency funds etc without our consent.

4. They accept the free movement of labour. Which is likely to remain in place. This is a very different concept to EU Citizenship as set up by the Masstricht treaty. (Edit: They're also a Schengen country, so there's free movement but not an automatic right to settle).

 

[hEist]

hm, after reading here some opinions, twitter, watching bbc, reading here and there some sites the last couples days, i just want to throw my opinion here.

i'm born in Poland and grew up Germany and also live here. Was a couple of times in England but don't have clue about your political situation / government nor i don't know how the life for a normal person outside of mayor cities is.

How should i start? Well, i'm sorry for people who voted remain. Sorry for the youth and also sorry for Scotland/N.Ireland , who got dragged in this situation. I was shocked, when i read the result on Friday morning (if i had to vote, i would vote remain.)

Whats fascinating, that a couple hours after the results came in, the search for who to blame began. First the Elders ("Baby Boom Gen"), yesterday the youth (since only 35% went to the vote). Statistics throwing around, witch-hunt is on.
But to be honest, the only "person"/institution to blame is your Government (well, maybe also the Media/Newspapers). Since it's seems they did an awful job informing the public (and guess what, the public lives also outside of huge cites), what would happen, if UK indeed will leave the EU.
No one thought about informing the people about the cons? Like the Cornwall thing?
That some Universities/Science Stuff in your Country are funded by the EU?
Or if you want a Norway situation you still need to have "open borders" / free movement "allowed".

Jesus, it's mind boggling. (the fact that the government, let the public decide about the future of staying/leaving the EU with just a simple majority is... #facepalm) I don't know, who came up with this idea, if he/she even did a "poll" to dip the waters, how people will vote...

And now? Well, current government don't have the balls/spine to call Art 50 and wants to play the waiting game, in hope that the EU will wait and hopefully everything will work out somehow. Best method: let's resign.
Also they don't want to disregard the referendum (it still need to pass in your cabinet, am i right?) since "oh my god, it could kill my career" (guess what, it's already dead) and also would piss the leavers.
Congratulations, your government fucked up the whole country/UK and also the economy.
I can't believe, that there are no people on the streets demonstrating in front of Westminster right now.

I do understand, why the EU wants to start the process. Since they definitely knew, that this was a stupid decision to have this kind of vote. Also they want to make an example of this, to show the other 27 countries, what can happen if they decide to leave and how much work/money/jobs hands in the balance.

Oh and btw. to the posters here, who think that other countries will also have this kind of "referendum": not gonna happen. Sure, you got some people like Le Pen, Wilders, AfD who will shout out, that there country will be the next. But no government will let decide the public about this. Also all current Governments will now point to the UK (sorry...) and ask the public if they are sure about that. And hopefully do a better job informing the public about the cons.

I'm sorry, if some people feel attacked with my opinion, it wasn't my intention. And sorry for my bad english, it's not my main/second language.

 

[anonymous_abc]

It can be extended and it likely will be extended.

Honestly having this farce go on beyond 2019 cannot be in anyone's interest.
It would be beyond ridiculous to have EP elections held in the UK that voted to leave 3 years prior.