Yes, because if one thing the last few days has told us is that we should listen to polls
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The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
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Yes, because if one thing the last few days has told us is that we should listen to polls
They do when it fits the facts as we know them.
The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU. - Source: Lord Ashcroft's Poll.
Hah.
shinra-bansho
Member
This is frankly nonsense. No one is going to impose embargoes on the UK, and no one expected anything of the sort.
That's a very different thing from the very real negative consequences of exiting.
So it sounds like what it boils down to is:
1.) Similar deal to Norway to save economic face, but it will require the same free movement as before, which is going to shock the hell out of all the Leave voters who are expecting a reduction or stop to immigration. So what you had before but without any say on new rules/regulations and likely the loss of special privileges esp. in regards to financial services.
2.) Actually give the leave voters what they want in regards to immigration, which means losing access to the single market. Of course this results in possible massive long term economic suffering.
What a complete disaster.
1.) Similar deal to Norway to save economic face, but it will require the same free movement as before, which is going to shock the hell out of all the Leave voters who are expecting a reduction or stop to immigration. So what you had before but without any say on new rules/regulations and likely the loss of special privileges esp. in regards to financial services.
2.) Actually give the leave voters what they want in regards to immigration, which means losing access to the single market. Of course this results in possible massive long term economic suffering.
What a complete disaster.
Exactly.
No one should want to fuck over central government and the tories more than Liverpool, and we voted remain. Terrifies me just how much more power they have now.
Ahahahaha. You still have no idea what you voted for. None.
Switzerland? I love how sometimes an uneducated post revelas itself just like that.
PJV3
Member
It's getting ridiculous, is it possible to section half the country. They have no plan and no stated limit to the damage this independence is worth taking.
So it sounds like what it boils down to is:
1.) Similar deal to Norway to save economic face, but it will require the same free movement as before, which is going to shock the hell out of all the Leave voters who are expecting a reduction or stop to immigration. So what you had before but without any say on new rules/regulations and likely the loss of special privileges esp. in regards to financial services.
2.) Actually give the leave voters what they want in regards to immigration, which means losing access to the single market. Of course this results in possible massive long term economic suffering.
What a complete disaster.
Id say yes, but 2 is never, ever, never never going to fly. The repercussions would destroy us and I find it depressing the Leavers did not fully appreciate this (but it's a complex issue so I understand why they may have not)
Do you really not understand? These trade relations at best will be identical to being in EU with no say in it at all. At worse there will be tariffs and less favourable deals.
axisofweevils
Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
Goodbye Pharma industry..... http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-corporates-pharmaceuticals-idUKKCN0ZA26J
Heckler456
Banned
So it sounds like what it boils down to is:
1.) Similar deal to Norway to save economic face, but it will require the same free movement as before, which is going to shock the hell out of all the Leave voters who are expecting a reduction or stop to immigration. So what you had before but without any say on new rules/regulations and likely the loss of special privileges esp. in regards to financial services.
2.) Actually give the leave voters what they want in regards to immigration, which means losing access to the single market. Of course this results in possible massive long term economic suffering.
What a complete disaster.
Actually, if I understand it correctly, the Norway deal involved being part of the Schengen zone, which England wasn't a part of before. So it in fact would be "worse" (in the eye of leavers) free movement than before.
So it sounds like what it boils down to is:
1.) Similar deal to Norway to save economic face, but it will require the same free movement as before, which is going to shock the hell out of all the Leave voters who are expecting a reduction or stop to immigration. So what you had before but without any say on new rules/regulations and likely the loss of special privileges esp. in regards to financial services.
2.) Actually give the leave voters what they want in regards to immigration, which means losing access to the single market. Of course this results in possible massive long term economic suffering.
What a complete disaster.
This is what a lot of Remain supporters were predicting beforehand. But a lot of leavers just screamed "doom and gloom! Project Fear!"
Totally understand this position and it clearly must be the outcome that a lot of MPs are hoping will come to pass. Just need a method of fooling the commons.
Nah, it was very lazy, as usual. There were a few slight truths in his piece, but none of them address why the differences between parts of the country were expressed in an EU referendum, of all things. Sweeping generalisations, with no substance to them.
Meus Renaissance
Member
My co-worker's partner is a builder who has to compete with Eastern Europeans that are able to severely undercut his prices. By having several people share rent and expenses, they are able to earn money and send it off home to their families who need it most.
This is perfectly understandable and she -- the daughter of Irish immigrants -- accepts that she'd do the same if the roles were reversed, but having just had a baby with her partner, it has impacted how much income they get as a family themselves. She works weekends just to earn a bit more to support her child and partner so it's already impacting her quality of life.
They don't hold grudges against East Europeans - by all accounts, they are just as good as anybody at construction. But it begs the question as to how long families such as hers have to support other families in Poland/Romania by forfeiting work. On that basis, she voted Leave.
Unknown Soldier
Member
The Union of England and Wales is going to be a very unpleasant country without Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the financial sector of London. I mean, what does the UK economy actually have as it's primary economic driver besides London being the de-facto world financial capital of Europe?
Napoleonthechimp
Member
Then they're fucking odious dumb people. There isn't going to be any forgiveness here.
Even now I'm having to battle people on twitter who keep on saying to me: Who did you choose for President of the EU?
As if they ever chose the PM of the country. These people keep on spouting off about how undemocratic it all us when they CHOSE Nigel Farage to represent them in a democratic EU parliament AND they have no actual clue as to how their own system of government works.
I cannot abide their stupidity and will never let it go.
jakonovski
Member
I think there's this hugely widespread ignorance of the fact that the UK had a really really good deal within the EU. Now Leavers are offended that they won't be getting the benefits of EU membership after leaving. Maybe a bit of research before voting?
jufonuk
not tag worthy
If you screw the UK so badly people starve and can't leave . Riots etc (worse worse worse case basically anarchy)
What would that look like ?
I think Norway deal is coming and free movement is the fuck you and swallow it.
You are in very thin ice .. Type thing. That will be the pyrrhic victory . Leavers can have the the Norway deal free to pursue others and the the EU do not look evil
England will basically go from being a bulldog to a corgi.
Scotland will keep going.
Shit this is Europe's Arab springs isn't it ?
Meus Renaissance
Member
In 2004, 10 more countries eight of which had been part of the eastern bloc during the cold war became members of the EU. (The former communist states were known, in the political jargon, as the A8.) In anticipation of the enlargement of the EU, Blairs government took the precaution of asking academics to assess the likely levels of immigration from countries in central and eastern Europe that were noticeably less well off.
Based on their calculations, the report predicted that Britain would receive between 5,000 to 13,000 net immigrants per year averaged over a ten year period from the new member states. The reality turned out to be quite different. The Office for National Statistic (ONS) estimates that between 2004 and 2012, the net inflow of migrants from the new members was 423,000.
The projection of 13,000 net migrants per year over a decade, he explained, was based on the assumption that all 15 EU countries would open their labour markets to the newcomers, ensuring that the migrants would be reasonably evenly distributed across the EU. In the end, just Britain, Ireland and Sweden opened up. The other 12 member states, most notably Germany, exercised their right to impose transitional controls. The German labour market was basically closed for Polish workers and that kind of changed everything, Dustmann says.
Indeed, tucked away on page 57 of the report is a careful qualification that a third of the 100,000 migrants predicted to head for Germany might travel to the UK instead if Berlin imposed restrictions on workers.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/mar/24/how-immigration-came-to-haunt-labour-inside-story
Based on their calculations, the report predicted that Britain would receive between 5,000 to 13,000 net immigrants per year averaged over a ten year period from the new member states. The reality turned out to be quite different. The Office for National Statistic (ONS) estimates that between 2004 and 2012, the net inflow of migrants from the new members was 423,000.
The projection of 13,000 net migrants per year over a decade, he explained, was based on the assumption that all 15 EU countries would open their labour markets to the newcomers, ensuring that the migrants would be reasonably evenly distributed across the EU. In the end, just Britain, Ireland and Sweden opened up. The other 12 member states, most notably Germany, exercised their right to impose transitional controls. The German labour market was basically closed for Polish workers and that kind of changed everything, Dustmann says.
Indeed, tucked away on page 57 of the report is a careful qualification that a third of the 100,000 migrants predicted to head for Germany might travel to the UK instead if Berlin imposed restrictions on workers.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/mar/24/how-immigration-came-to-haunt-labour-inside-story
Voting rights should start at 16.
If the last two days showed anything it's that many brits did not do any research before voting.
Your solutions are pie in the sky. You will be accepting free movement of people to access the single market, unless you don't and fuck yourselves over on a worse deal to trade via the WTO. Those are your only solutions.
Either way, the deal you will get will be materially worse for the UK than the deal you already had, since you will have traded away your presence in the EU and yet will still be bound by the policies you falsely claimed were the causes of Britain's problems.
Everyone warned you about these outcomes, including what it meant for Scotland and Northern Ireland, and you have put your fingers in your ears while it all comes true. Well done.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Why does there have to be a offer to leave voters exactly?
You voted to leave. You have your wish. Any negotiations are to prevent the country dying a slow death because of your wish.
The biggest irony is that leavers are failing to realise they are even less part of the conversation than they were in the first place. Literally no negotiating party will give a flying fuck what you think.
Your only leverage is threatening to vote UKIP. That really only affects traditional labour strongholds, not conservative ones.
Heckler456
Banned
This is actually something I've seen discussed on Belgian television as well. And while I did not quite understand if there is some type of regulation already in place to solve this kind of stuff (I would be highly surprised if they missed this kind of a glaring problem), the main issue those two people spoke of was the fact that the EU didn't have enough power to police this kind of unfair competition, and some kind of issue with Belgium charging too much "social contribution".
So I understand where people like this are coming from, and leaving the EU is definitely a quick short term fix for this problem specifically at first glace.
This vote will prove a reductio ad absurdum of sovereignty.
This a 1000 times. The UK already had special status within the EU and we voluntarily gave it up.
Cakes
Meus Renaissance
Member
There is 0% chance freedom of movement for workers will be on the negotiating table.
Mr Reasonable
Completely Unreasonable
I read that Denmark* had similar problems where local people were undercut by migrant labour. The government passed a law that said that local people could not be undercut by non resident workers.
Had the UK government done something similar some people might have voted differently. It seems like an obvious thing to do now.
*IIRC
jakonovski
Member
The love glutinous English cakes in France.
Nothing, absolutely nothing.
Which is exactly the problem. Outside of some luxury sectors (which even those are being successfully challenged - as one saying goes, the French do British better than the British) there is nothing inherently British that you can't get just as good elsewhere. Industries like pharma are here for reasons like easy access to international talent and stability due (in-part) to the commitment to the financial sector.
Even if everything stays the same but trading gets slightly worse, we'll have vultures from all over the world looking to pick apart our bones by offering now better deals.
https://www.facebook.com/sarah.leblanc.718/media_set?set=a.10101369198638985&type=3
A collection of social media stories following the vote. Sorry if it's been shared already. Absolutely shameful.
A collection of social media stories following the vote. Sorry if it's been shared already. Absolutely shameful.
Heckler456
Banned
Do you really think the government isn't going to discuss this specific clause over some non-binding referendum campaign's agenda if it were to make glaring economic sense?
That is fine, but then nothing is solved...Remain can stand and laugh at how free movement got accepted, UKIP continue to rise, people will still feel like Government does not represent anyone outside London.. we are literally the status quo, except everybody now hates everybody else
good job, fast forward 20 years until UKIP are now powerful enough to put pressure on to call another referendum
oh oh, you no longer have Scotland to help balance the vote
Well then you get a deal like Turkey then.
GamerMax73
Member
Tony Blair talking sense on Sunday Politics. Pretty much, take it slow and then sign up to the EEA.
Spiral Insanity
Banned
All those mentioning Marr, are you trying to write Maher?
If the UK wants access to the single market then you are correct. The EU is not going to give the UK special exemption.
Meus Renaissance
Member
How is this achieved though? If your roof is damaged, and a Polish builder offers to fix it for £200 and a British worker offers to do it for £300, how are you going to quantity what is 'undercutting', and what is 'profiteering'? Maybe the EU worker has less costs so he can charge less?
Andrew Marr?
Oh look, turns out that the EU did not dump "uncontrolled immigration" on the UK, but instead the British government willingly welcomed Eastern Europe into their labour market to increase it's tax take to support an ageing population's use of the NHS with reduced birthrates.
Eerily like the time the British government rejected EU proposals that would protect British steelworkers from China flooding the market.
It's almost like they had both sovereignty and a decisive position in the EU but pissed it up the wall chasing neoliberalism and protecting their friends in finance at the cost of everywhere outside of London.
I know what a shadow cabinet is, we have the same in Germany during the elections (for some ministries) - but why are your politicians using these imaginary positions post election pretending they're actually worth something and making a big deal out of resigning from a fantasy job? That's laughable to me.
I've seen a fun documentary about Westminster on the eve of the decision on German TV - most of the customs were charming, like lotteries about who gets to speak and propose a law, MP's camping out in front of the office that assigns speech time etc.. But some stuff was really unhealthy and just as f'd up like the political system in the US They showed filibustering in action for example. The guy who did it, supposedly a powerful Tory, visibly enjoyed sabotaging an opposition proposal. At first it was funny because he was so very British and seemed almost aristrocatic, but man what an a-hole and what a shitty political practice. In Germany proposals by the opposition which the majority doesn't like (which is basically every single one) gets voted down unceremoniously and that's it.
I've seen a fun documentary about Westminster on the eve of the decision on German TV - most of the customs were charming, like lotteries about who gets to speak and propose a law, MP's camping out in front of the office that assigns speech time etc.. But some stuff was really unhealthy and just as f'd up like the political system in the US They showed filibustering in action for example. The guy who did it, supposedly a powerful Tory, visibly enjoyed sabotaging an opposition proposal. At first it was funny because he was so very British and seemed almost aristrocatic, but man what an a-hole and what a shitty political practice. In Germany proposals by the opposition which the majority doesn't like (which is basically every single one) gets voted down unceremoniously and that's it.
Heckler456
Banned
European mandated minimum wage?
jakonovski
Member
What is the solution here? I mean seriously, the Leave camp just plain isn't happy with anything or anyone. It's like they expect the world to apologize to them and then shower them with cash.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
20 years from now a significant amount of leave voters will be dead and we (well you will, I'm outta here) will have experienced 20 years of the pain such a folly has created.
So pretty much, good luck with that.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Welp, should have thought of that before calling for this stupid referendum, and before voting leave for unrealistic reasons
I just can't wrap my head around what the point is then. Why do this to then end up with a similar but worse deal?
I bet most of the voting public has no clue this is what is likely to happen.
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