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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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Maledict

Member
The interesting thing here is to see the financial market impact on the UK, EU, and even other markets. US banks aren't doing well today.

If Cameron will stay in power until October and ignore this for months, how will that work out? Shouldn't someone force him out earlier to get things rolling?

The party has the timetable to remove him, and it will be done by the start of September. Whether the new leader triggers article 50 is the big question.

I'm glad the EU has been clear about the lack of talks pre-article 50. Again, this is what needs to happen if we are to back out of this disaster.
 

liquidtmd

Banned
What if that just delays the inevitable and lengthens the period of investor uncertainty

I mean it ain't over till it's over. Cameron hasn't invoked Article 50 yet and that speaks volumes.

Its all to play for. The markets will squeeze the public shortly. The public will squeeze Cameron to forget this or invoke. I don't think now it's becoming clearer nothing will change and indeed worsen they will be crying out to still leave
 

Hasney

Member
Highest quality uncompressed deals!

Act now and we'll set you on fire for no extra charge!!

image.php
 
I'm amazed they even know what a recession is.

I get the sense that they thought the question asked was: "Do you want the Poles, and all other foreign scum, to leave or remain in OUR country?"

They think that now the vote has gone in their favour everyone who isn't British has to pack up and leave right away.
As one imigrant living and working in the UK for the last 20 years, married to an English born wife, both my kids born in England, the oldest one having double nationality, and on the process of doing the same to the youngest one, the above is the impresion I had about many of the voters.
Im honest, I never felt this worried in all my live , both for myself but more than anithyng else for my wife and kids
This does not bode well at all
 

Plasma

Banned
how is cameron remaining so glib about this? The fake NHS numbers aren't a laughing matter - they're a symbol of the unbelievably toxic campaign fought by the leave campaign, built on hate and lies. Personally I'd investigate it for breaking some kind of election rules around fraud, but he could at least criticise it heavily.
He's a prick and he couldn't care less because it isn't his problem anymore.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
what is unemployment at the moment? I thought all the dirty europeans coming over were actually working and not stealing jobs because unemployment was pretty low?


I wonder if the brexit side can spin an EEA solution by somehow focusing on non-EU immigration and trying to ignore the free movement part?
 
My only hope is that Cameron et al are waiting for the huge backlash against Brexit and waiting for it to seep through the thick skulls of leave-voters that Brexit won't stop immigration, won't mean extra money for public services and won't mean more 'sovereignty' for Westminster (since the same disputes will be enforced by the EFTA Court instead of the ECJ).

Only once the utter failure of Brexit is clear and obvious to everyone, will it be possible for politicians to talk about abandoning the idea. If they do it now then they'll get crucified for going against "the will of the people".

Unfortunately, most leave voters give no fucks about the markets or the Tories or even Corbyn, so it might take a while for them to recognise the damage they've caused. It'll probably need huge job losses and widespread closures in highly visible public services.

I have some hope that public opinion will swing dramatically against Brexit in the next few weeks.

Oh, I just checked my pension pot. First I gave my usual laugh at the predicted pension value in 30 years time (annuities companies must base their longevity predictions on transhumanism). Then I looked at the overall valuation change and thought it wasn't doing too badly. Finally, I realised it was only because I'm heavily diversified in global stocks, so when they get converted back into pound(ed) sterling it looks like they've "gone up" and offsets the black hole in my UK equities.
My FTSE 250 tracker and UK smaller co's funds are getting pounded to fuck.
Somewhat ironically, I'm okay-ish because I'm young-ish and have a highly aggressive "growth" portfolio. People with medium risk UK "income" equity portfolios could be in a lot more trouble. Bonds look okay for now, but will be fucked if we get inflation from all the quantitative easing the BoE will end up doing.
I never thought I'd be relying on my Asian Tiger funds to provide me with stability in tough economic times. That's not the way it's supposed to go.
 

jerry1594

Member
Sorry if this question is not relevant to the thread, but it's the active thread on the whole issue. Can and will the London government try to prevent Scotland from becoming independent?
 
Yeah, this is what really scares me. The contempt for qualified opinion encouraged and validated by Gove et al is really, really dangerous. It's hard to put the lid back on that box.

Honestly I think the analysis by Gove that people no longer trust experts and facts from politicians is sound. The problem is do you look for a way to mend trust in the country or be a shameless opportunist. Twisting something that should be a concern about the fabric of society into an opportunity for career advancement is psychopathic. I think it's telling that both Boris and Gove were journalists and this is the sort of thing that doesn't bother them even slightly.
 

Hasney

Member
Sorry if this question is not relevant to the thread, but it's the active thread on the whole issue. Can and will the London government try to prevent Scotland from becoming independent?

Of course, they can even refuse the referendum outright. If there is an appetite for it though, they'll probably have to eventually.

Then they could have the referendum on Scottish Independence and ignore it totally.

Fun hypothetical: say I'm going to Germany in a month, should I get my euros now or wait it out and hope for the best?

It's forecast to go down and everytime I look at it, it's slightly lower. Act now.
 

Morat

Banned
Honestly I think the analysis by Gove that people no longer trust experts and facts from politicians is sound. The problem is do you look for a way to mend trust in the country or be a shameless opportunist. Twisting something that should be a concern about the fabric of society into an opportunity for career advancement is psychopathic. I think it's telling that both Boris and Gove were journalists and this is the sort of thing that doesn't bother them even slightly.

And we know Johnson's history of pathological lying as a journalist - he was fired for it!
 
Sorry if this question is not relevant to the thread, but it's the active thread on the whole issue. Can and will the London government try to prevent Scotland from becoming independent?

Yes on both counts. Perhaps Labour will promise a second referendum if they need the SNP to prop up a minority government, but I can't see any other circumstances where Whitehall will willingly let Scotland go. I don't think the notion that the EU will recognise Scotland's unilateral secession from the union stands up to much scrutiny (unless Brexit negotiations with the EU turn really sour).
 

Binabik15

Member
I laugh* at all the "now we can make our own trade deals" delusions. Besides being short on manpower, they have fuck all experience to get it all done.

Footnote 9: The UK would need to rapidly to build up the expertise and resources to negotiate FTAs and deal with trade defence cases, having not negotiated a trade deal in 40 years. Australia and Canada employ around 200-250 people each to work on trade negotiations.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/503908/54538_EU_Series_No2_Accessible.pdf


Forty.

Years.


*so that I don't have to cry at this mess
 

Hasney

Member
Honestly I think the analysis by Gove that people no longer trust experts and facts from politicians is sound. The problem is do you look for a way to mend trust in the country or be a shameless opportunist. Twisting something that should be a concern about the fabric of society into an opportunity for career advancement is psychopathic. I think it's telling that both Boris and Gove were journalists and this is the sort of thing that doesn't bother them even slightly.

And on top of that, they then don't even have the balls to show up to the house of commons. I think it does bother them, but only because of personal investments and ambitions that they've fucked up rather than the entire country.
 

mnz

Unconfirmed Member
Merkel knows that time plays into her hands. And playing the iron lady in an election year is like the best thing that can happen to her.
I know I wouldn't support being unnecessarily harsh on the UK. The whole reason the EU exists is to be above such shit.
If they all agree it is necessary, then that's what needs to happen, I guess.
 

Maledict

Member
We had huge financial crisis, we had Greece, we had the immigrants and we still live our everyday life.

You understand the financial crisis has led us to 8 years of austerity with no end in sight, massive job losses, huge misery and everything else? And this is far, far worse for the Uk if we go ahead and leave?
 

oti

Banned
My impression from this press conference so far: Nobody cares about the political games inside the UK, France is pointing out that the UK was always different, Merkel wants to give the UK enough time while the others seem to want to move on ASAP and Italy is pointing out this could turn out to be a great opportunity to change the EU for the better (in case you forgot Italy was also against Germany's hard handling of the Grexit crisis).
 
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