Support NeoGAF

[3liteDragon]

Sony is confident the PS5 can break 60 million sales

Sony President Hiroki Totoki is confident PlayStation 5 will sell over 60 million units, expects to sell PS5s 'continuously' in fourth year after launch.

www.tweaktown.com

Sony President Hiroki Totoki is confident PlayStation 5 will sell over 60 million units, expects to sell PS5s 'continuously' in fourth year after launch.

Sony believes the PlayStation 5 will sell over 60 million consoles throughout its lifespan. With 32.1 million shipments to date, the PlayStation 5 is off to a great start considering its supply issues. Sony management expects to at least double that figure in the coming years as the company ramps up production and manufacturing of the system.

Could the PS5 outsell the PS4? It's hard to say, but the PS5 still has not shipped as much as the PS4 did in launch-aligned sales; figures show that the PS4 achieved 37.9 million shipments in its first nine quarters, as compared to the PS5's 32.1 million. Sony hasn't commented on whether or not the PS5 will beat the PS4, but the company is confident its newer PlayStation could beat 60 million sales.

"I think we have a good chance to exceed 60 million units, and as you may know, we sold more than 100 million units in the era of the PS4," Sony Corp. President and COO Hiroki Totoki said in a recent Morgan Stanley tech conference.

Totoki continues by underlining how the PS4's userbase could eventually move over to the PS5, and that Sony has achieved high user acquisition with its new system.

We have extremely loyal users on PS4 [that could move to PS5]. We have build the PS5 to deliver a better user experience and surprisingly, current proportions for the PS5 show that 30% of PS5 owners do not have a PS4. We have captured new user acquisition with PS5. That provides us with a good potential with the PS5's ecosystem expansion and increased penetration. We also bring our first-party titles to the PC platform as well as mobile platforms, and this provides the great opportunity to increase our MAUs in the future.

Totoki was asked when PlayStation 5 will peak. Console generations typically see hardware peak in the fourth year after launch, and software will peak in the fifth year. However, COVID-19 has disrupted the market and redefined what a console gen actually is. When will the PS5 peak? Totoki doesn't know for sure, but he does say that Sony expects to "continuously sell" the PS5 after the system's fourth year on the market.

I'm not going to predict when hardware units will peak. But I really hope that we continuously sell PS5 even beyond the fourth year of launch. That is our hope and expectation. Hardware penetration on the PS5 is important, but increasing MAUs as I said before, will be executed by penetrating the PC and mobile platform. Complete with hardware sales, we can increase MAU. In that sense, rather than just hardware, MAUs are a very important KPI for now.

 

[nial]

of course it will

 

[Ezekiel_]

The most conservative prediction possible

 

[Barakov]

Not exactly an ambitious target at the moment.

 

[TheGodfather07]

Only 60m? Sony are already dying from the Activison deal!

 

[AtomicStarving]

GTA VI reveal coming soon consoles only pc later

 

[Spyxos]

That doesn't sound like much. I would have guessed much more.

 

[vivftp]

lol, if Tom Hendersons rumor is real then they'll hit 60 million by the end of March 2024.

Even if we go by Sonys own statements, they should hit 52 million by the end of March 2024 at the very least.

 

[lh032]

 

[Crispy Gamer]

Maybe PS6 is closer than we think that's a weird sales projection

 

[3liteDragon]

lol, if Tom Hendersons rumor is real then they'll hit 60 million by the end of March 2024.

Just wanna add on to this, Henderson's been super reliable so far & the most recent thing he's been right on is the exact date the PS5 Discord update was gonna drop, he said it would drop on March 8th back in August of last year which is how I knew beforehand. Also said back in late November, that the first Modern Warfare 2 multiplayer free weekend was gonna start on Dec 15th, which it did.

Sony's FY23: April 1st, 2023 - March 31st, 2024

Sources - Sony to Ship 30 Million PlayStation 5's in FY23

Sony is aiming to ship 30 million PlayStation 5 consoles in Fiscal Year 23 (March 2023 - March 2024), sources have said.

insider-gaming.com

 

[onQ123]

Most likely lost in translation or something & they are talking about 60 million in it's 4th year

 

[vivftp]

Just wanna add on to this, Henderson's been super reliable so far & the most recent thing he's been right on is the exact date the PS5 Discord update was gonna drop, he said it would drop on March 8th back in August of last year which is how I knew beforehand. Also said back in late November, that the first Modern Warfare 2 multiplayer free weekend was gonna start on Dec 15th, which it did.

Sony's FY23: April 1st, 2023 - March 31st, 2024

http://[URL]https://insider-gaming.com/playstation-5-30-million/

[/URL]

For even more perspective, the PS5 is at 32.1 million units as of the last quarterly report. Sony predicts 6.2 million more in Q4, which would bring it up to a total of 38.3 by the end of this FY (in 3 weeks).

So 38.3 plus Tom Hendersons rumor of 30.5 would put the PS5 at 68.8 million by the end of March 2024.

Even if we ignore Tom's rumor, Sony has said they expect the PS5 to surpass the PS4 sales curve next FY, which means the PS5 would need to move at least 22 million units to hit that goal. 38.3 + 22 would bring us to 60.3 million by the end of March 2024.

So yeah, over 60 million by the end of the next FY seems all but certain.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The specific question was an incremental 60 million, so given they're ~30 million now, maybe even 35 million, and incremental 60 puts them at 90-95 million.

He honestly isn't saying anything here, but essentially he was saying the PS5 is showing greater growth opportunity than PS4 and that's also the same place where he mentioned the PSVR2 selling more than PSVR1.

This was a kind of nothing discussion as he was speaking to Morgan Stanley about the Sony business in general.

Sony Group Corporation - 1598935

 

[SSfox]

If they continue pc porting : 80 M
If they stop pc porting: 160 M

 

[Brucey]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

 

[Krappadizzle]

Seems totally reasonable.

 

[phant0m]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

not what the quote says:

current proportions for the PS5 show that 30% of PS5 owners do not have a PS4

this can be interpreted in a lot of ways. as an example, i own a PS5 but currently do not have a PS4. I sold my PS4 Pro when I got my PS5 -- am I in this group? If they're going by "PS4 systems active on [PSN] account", then yes. Also says nothing about PS3, Vita, or older systems.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I have a feeling the full context of the quote was left out, meaning a timeframe for 60m.

 

[Raonak]

Lol, aren't they already half way there?

 

[EDMIX]

smh, I thought maybe they meant like by the end of the year.

60 million is unlikely as some life time type thing, it will be past 100 million, how much past...who the fuck knows lol

Like Switch 2, if its portable, we can count 100 mill will get it in its lifetime if all things remain regarding their quality and relevancy of their IPs.

This is a nothing article lol

 

[Thief1987]

I have a feeling the full context of the quote was left out, meaning a timeframe for 60m.

Context is he was asked about exceeding target of 60 million. And his answer was basically yes, we think we will.

It's here, question is at 12.15
https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1598935&tp_key=014524bf74

Edit oh, it's not even about 60 million LTD target, but 60 million incremental, so the article is even more misleading than it looks

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Just wanna add on to this, Henderson's been super reliable so far & the most recent thing he's been right on is the exact date the PS5 Discord update was gonna drop, he said it would drop on March 8th back in August of last year which is how I knew beforehand. Also said back in late November, that the first Modern Warfare 2 multiplayer free weekend was gonna start on Dec 15th, which it did.

Sony's FY23: April 1st, 2023 - March 31st, 2024

http://[URL]https://insider-gaming.com/playstation-5-30-million/

[/URL]

Has he said anything about the discless PS5?

 

[PixelatedBeast]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

I think i read a simiar stat last gen that said 40% of new ps4 owners were girl gamers.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

Why does the possibility of there being new gamers in each generation seem to elude people? Unless, of course, everyone thinks it's the same 180-200M console gamers that have been buying consoles for the past three generations.

 

[TheGodfather07]

so basically PS5 will be at minimum 60m by april 1st 2024.

 

[Heisenberg007]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

Won't be all of them, but at least some of them from Xbox for sure because we know that PlayStation gained market share from Xbox in the US this generation (at least 2 percentage points by Nov. 22 if we go by leaked NPD data)

 

[Brucey]

Won't be all of them, but at least some of them from Xbox for sure because we know that PlayStation gained market share from Xbox in the US this generation (at least 2 percentage points by Nov. 22 if we go by leaked NPD data)

So perhaps more of an outside US situation. Certainly some also could be coming from PC, Nintendo, PS3ers who skipped PS4, people who have only played mobile and want to play a dedicated console etc.

 

[Rhazkul]

That doesn't sound like much. I would have guessed much more.

They would've probably already hit the 60m, if everything wasn't so fucked the last 3 years. Scalpers, shortages, lockdowns, low production...and all that other fun stuff made it extremely difficult to get a PS5. It's still not easy here.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

Maybe he knows what I have guessed, VR Hardware becomes an additional hardware that parasites on console hardware sales.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

New gamers are born every day.

Adults weren't big gamers in the 80s and even 90s, we have generations of parents who themselves are gamers and their kids are gamers.

We'll reach a point where most grandparents grew up around gaming.

Gaming is also reaching more and more females.

 

[Robb]

That seems like a given at this point. I’m expecting a lot more.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

New gamers is one reason why Sony should never have stopped making platform games and party games

It's an easier way for novice gamers to get into gaming and learn the basic controls of a gamepad.

 

[AnotherOne]

 

[Crayon]

Maybe he knows what I have guessed, VR Hardware becomes an additional hardware that parasites on console hardware sales.

I had my money saved for a second PS5 but I bought a psvr2 instead. True story.

 

[L*][*N*K]

Yes it can, I actually think 60 is a low number, I see at least a 100m in the next 5 years

 

[Cyberpunkd]

That doesn't sound like much. I would have guessed much more.

I knew this will be posted so just to put it into context - average revenue per user for PS4 and PS5 is way higher than 20 years ago. You can sell half as many consoles and make double the profits.

 

[Three]

I've lowballed it at 85M. I don't think we will hit 100M for any console this gen.

 

[Poltz]

I've lowballed it at 85M. I don't think we will hit 100M for any console this gen.

PS5 is hitting 100m easily.

 

[Three]

PS5 is hitting 100m easily.

Hopefully, let's see.

 

[THE DUCK]

Interesting spin, sales down vs last gen and its a "win". I mean know it really is anyhow, but it's just funny.

 

[Three]

Interesting spin, sales down vs last gen and its a "win". I mean know it really is anyhow, but it's just funny.

 

[ergem]

Maybe PS6 is closer than we think that's a weird sales projection

This.

• 10-year life cycle like always
• PS6 release in 2025
• PS5 & PS6 cross-gen games until PS7 launches on 2030.
• PS5 support stops when PS7 launch.
• Two generations of playstation will complement each other.
• PS5-PS6
• PS6-PS7
• PS7-PS8
• So on and so forth

 

[Jim Ryan other Clone]

So perhaps more of an outside US situation. Certainly some also could be coming from PC, Nintendo, PS3ers who skipped PS4, people who have only played mobile and want to play a dedicated console etc.

Or maybe the biggest portion of that 30% are people who buy first time consoles? Kids who have become teenager and want to buy it or parent who want to buy it for their young kids etc. Every minute there are hundreds new kids born that can be new console owners couple years down the road.

 

[THE DUCK]

Relax, your still the best in the universe because you own a ps5. I have two so I'm doubly the best. Ah, the animated gif, crutch of the people on forums who think they are "clever"

 

[DonJimbo]

It will reach ps1 numbers
Release the slim version Jimbo

 

[Panajev2001a]

Interesting spin, sales down vs last gen and its a "win". I mean know it really is anyhow, but it's just funny.

About two years of manufacturing constraints / shortages (on top of a global pandemic) and a recession as well as higher console ASP’s (PS4 launched at $399)… continue mocking others for being clever from your throne of PS5’s ( … sure), fill your boots…

 

[Torrent of Pork]

When I can pick up a PS5 for $200, and they have enough exclusive games I'll kick out $30ish a pop for I'll pick one up.

I've said for a while if there was a $300 PS5 'S' that just runs at 1080p I'd probably already own one.

 

[mrmustard]

30% of PS5 owners are new to Playstation? Did they come from xb1?

Some from Xbox, some from Nintendo, some from Pc, some have their first PS as a second or third device, some young people that are new to gaming.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

I also wonder if its going to be a shorter gen for Sony. I dont see how its not going to hit atleast 100 mil otherwise.TBH no matter how Iook at it 60 mil makes no sense unless PS6 coming in hot.