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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm doubtful the last sentence is possible. This is a woman whose announced policies are being the daughter of a seamstress.
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UK Labour Leadership Crisis: Corbyn retained as leader by strong margin
- Thread starter Hazzuh
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I'm doubtful the last sentence is possible. This is a woman whose announced policies are being the daughter of a seamstress.
The internal polling is absolutely terrifying by all accounts.
Corbyn knows this but he wants to build a social protest movement.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
It'll be whittled down to two at the end so there'll be no vote splitting.
Maybe instead of blaming everyone other than Corbyn, perhaps the reason Labour is doing so poorly is that Corbyn is a poor leader of the party. Occam's razor and all that.
Kotetsu534
Member
Easy to overreact to events, but would anyone bet against an unbroken run of Tory PMs from 2010 till 2030, as things stand? Can't see Eagle's challenge succeeding given Corbyn's popularity with the membership and her weakness as a candidate. The PLP will be stuck with a leader they don't accept with no prospect of ever governing. Any split ensures Tory dominance is guaranteed and UKIP may well make inroads in the north of England. Shortens the odds on a Yes vote in the next indepedence referendum, though.
ferrasvansen
Member
Tories will get a free run at anything they want for next 20 years at least, god help the poor and vulnerable. Labour will go down in history as the party who let down the ones who needed a sensible viable opposition who can win elections to protect them.
The way the voting works means you can't have a "split vote" like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y3jE3B8HsE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8XOZJkozfI
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Labour Party leadership election is AV, there aren't wasted votes unless you don't fill out all your options. The only waste is wasted attention as centrists attack each other instead of focusing on Corbyn. But yeah, the least-bad-scenario is Jarvis or Starmer or Nandy or even Lewis stand. Any of those could beat Corbyn, I think. Actually, maybe even Smith could.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah Tories have a free reign now, with UKIP eating away support in northern and midland areas of England. Cannot see a labour PM in my lifetime now and Scotland will get closer and closer to the exit button now.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
That's the right result, legally at least. I can't see it being successfully challenged.
Politically it leads to all manner of clusterfuckedness:
1) will the PLP be able to find a good enough unifying candidate to stand? Will any good enough candidate be willing to stand in the face of the Corbyn-dominated membership?
2) will the membership come to their senses and realise that it just isn't sensible to have a leader who can't lead the Parliamentary party? Time to riffle through the history books on Ramsay McDonald maybe.
3) will any of the Labour PLP jump ship? How soon will the Labour party split? Is Corbyn such a dire electoral millstone that 112 of the PLP could be persuaded into the LibDems to oust Labour as the official opposition?
4) still calling for an early election?
5) How full will the Opposition benches be at PMQs tomorrow?
6) Will Momentum pursue reselection in full with the forthcoming boundary changes?
etc etc
People shouldn't assume the Tories are going to be fine in perpetuity. The brexit negotiations are going to require them to make choices where they clearly prioritise some of their core supporters over others. Anti-immigrant Tory members, farmers, the City etc. Very possible they implode as well.
ferrasvansen
Member
PJV3
Member
It's all rather amusing, I think we haven't even really started with the real fun times yet.
Maybe.
Time will tell
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Eagle won't inspire wipeout though.
Hopefully someone better will put their name forward.
Others will step forward now and in the end they will decide on one candidate to oppose Corbyn. I doubt Eagle will make it to the final ballot.
If there are potential challengers willing to put their political career in the line, they have to step forward. Otherwise the party is going to split.
Great news that Jezza "unelectable" Corbyn will get the chance to once again be elected, as he has been in every contest he's ever fought since 1983.
Labour was a shadow of it's former self before Corbyn became leader, but now it's well on it's way to becoming a mass movement again. The shrill cries of the right wing press and despicable smears against him by all and sundry are proof positive that they are scared that he's onto something.
Roll on the next GE, later this year preferably, a red tide is coming.
Labour was a shadow of it's former self before Corbyn became leader, but now it's well on it's way to becoming a mass movement again. The shrill cries of the right wing press and despicable smears against him by all and sundry are proof positive that they are scared that he's onto something.
Roll on the next GE, later this year preferably, a red tide is coming.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah UKIP could easily take over one day if tories implode. Maybe we might get a split of Labour and Tory moderates creating a party in that event.
why do you think the membership is wrong? why is it not the parliamentary party that's at fault for not just refusing to work with Corbyn, but actively sabotaging him? why is the sensible option to ignore the results of an election?
pigeon didn't say he was the sole or even main contributor, merely that he was a contributor.
And as far as why he should have vehemently supported the EU, because "eh, it's okay, I guess" is a limp dishrag of an electoral message. If you want people to vote for anything, you need an unequivocal and passionate message for why staying in the European Union is the right choice.
Why has this red tide not manifested in the polling or in local elections?
Sounds like he has Momentum.
It's laughable how Corbyn keep saying he's willing to listen to anyone with concerns, we know that he simply doesn't listen or engage with critics in any way.
Yeah, I'm sure there are thousands of shy Corbynistas who are going to keep those marginal seats red.
Yeah, I'm sure there are thousands of shy Corbynistas who are going to keep those marginal seats red.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
I think at this point it's just best to start planning a split into a new centre-left party.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
A tide is coming, but it's not red and it'll leave the labour part knee deep in it.
Fucking Blair
You don't know an election might play out, there are many disaffected voters who Corbyn could appeal too, if given free reigns.
unless you're willing to write them off to Ukip forever.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah and considering their aim is to become a protest party, I expect they will be happy with the 100 of 600 seats that will be available in 2020.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Well if he wins this time those in the party will absolutely have to get behind him.
Or break away. Hell, might be more likely than making up. Politicians hate turning the other way. Might be another fun clusterfuck!
Or break away. Hell, might be more likely than making up. Politicians hate turning the other way. Might be another fun clusterfuck!
Because Corbyn is going to inflict the worse defeat on Labour we've ever seen ?That they are going to lose over a 100 seats? That he currently is polling historically low - 8 points behind Ed Miliband at this time in the cycle?
Lets be blunt. Every leader faces backbenchers who leak against you, smear you in the press and plot against you. Every single one. It's part of the job. Blair even had his own chancellor doing it. Ed Miliband had it. Hell, Kinnock had Corbyn doing it. Saying that Corbyn is bad because of plotting is just ignoring reality - the guy is not fit to lead a major political party, and even if you agree with his ideas he is *terrible* at presenting and selling them. He is going to set left wing politics back decades - because after he eventually does go down, in 10 years time, youc an guarantee labour won't ever look at a left winger again.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Voters. It comes down to voters. The MPs have more voters behind them.
This election format is probably the worst of Miliband's legacy.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
These of the words of someone that hasn't spent more than a few weeks outside a safe, middle class, city suburb.
Even if you are an ardant corybn supporter, you are nothing but delusional if you think he has support outside of that demographic.
He's in one of the safest labour seats in the UK. You could put a pigeon with a red rosette in his seat and he would win.
He is performing historically badly. He is 8 points behind Ed Miliband. Current projections show the party would lose easily another 100+ seats. That's far, FAR outside the margins of error - right now the only question is exactly how many more seats we lose, not the number.
Well, isn't it the entirety of Miliband's legacy?
Even if they didn't have the £3 members Corbyn still won. Unfortunately the party is doing what every party does in opposition - retreating to the far extremes in a quest for purity. Labour did it in the early 80s, the Tories did it in the late 90s early 2000s. He's a feel good candidate for the party faithful - a protest leader.
It always requires a moderate to step back in, take over and lead the party to power. British politics is fought and won on the centre ground, and right now the tories are dominating that to an extent that should be unthinkable.
nelsonroyale
Member
Good news that Corbyn can stand. The party clearly needs a shake up and the turmoil will continue. Disruption is a precondition for significant change. I am in now predicting that will happen at the current time, but it is surely needed.
yeah, I think people are taking a rather naive view of events...Things are likely to get much worse given the course this country is set on in the coming decades. Who knows if we will still have democracy by the end of it...
yeah, I think people are taking a rather naive view of events...Things are likely to get much worse given the course this country is set on in the coming decades. Who knows if we will still have democracy by the end of it...
Sir_Crocodile
Member
Lib dem leader is Tim Farron though, he's a plonker. :/
PJV3
Member
I think if the PLP had supported Corbyn he might have managed mediocre to okay-ish results. With the events since the referendum He is truly fucked.
He's carrying the can for years in the making fuck ups, but he has to go. I will vote Eagle and hope she stands down after a year or so.
He's carrying the can for years in the making fuck ups, but he has to go. I will vote Eagle and hope she stands down after a year or so.
ferrasvansen
Member
Yeah doesn't really come across that great, but they haven't much to choose from now.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
£3 voters had nothing to do with it. I find myself repeating once again, Corbyn won 50% (i.e., not even needing a second round) among people who had been Labour members since 2005. This was not some entryist takeover, it was a revolt of the party membership against the PLP.
Ed Miliband's democratization of the Labour Party was the second best thing he managed after the Leveson Inquiriy.
I actually really miss Ed.
Ed Miliband's democratization of the Labour Party was the second best thing he managed after the Leveson Inquiriy.
I actually really miss Ed.
If politics were won on the centre ground we'd have a Prime Minister Miliband. UKIP's rise is entirely due to the Labour Party abandoning workers in deindustrialzed regions in an endless chase of the center. It's gone so far Tony Blair has gone on record as saying he'd rather lose than win on a leftist platform. The return of the Left to power will never happen if it can't provide a substantial alternative to the Right.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Corbyn is gonna need to pull some unprecedented shit to have long term success. He can hear the Labour party sure, but that doesnt herald any kind of success.
He's gonna need a heck of a speechwriter, heck of a PR campaign, and he's gonna need to swallow his pride and start doing some of the things he doesn't like doing. And maybe not go to some event about bloody Cuba in the midst of his party falling apart.
He's gonna need a heck of a speechwriter, heck of a PR campaign, and he's gonna need to swallow his pride and start doing some of the things he doesn't like doing. And maybe not go to some event about bloody Cuba in the midst of his party falling apart.
Yeah, I'm not sure why many in the Labour Party think aping Tory policies will gain them anything. People will simply vote for the 'real' thing, and doing so gives more credence to the Tory position.
Exactly.
JonathanEx
Member
£3 voters had nothing to do with it. I find myself repeating once again, Corbyn won 50% (i.e., not even needing a second round) among people who had been Labour members since 2005. This was not some entryist takeover, it was a revolt of the party membership against the PLP.
Ed Miliband's democratization of the Labour Party was the second best thing he managed after the Leveson Inquiriy.
I actually really miss Ed.
But if it weren't open to the £3 type members, would Momentum feel like such a strong force? Right now his 'mandate' feels stronger because of such vocal support, but if it were harder to join, would it feel more like something that could be challenged by now?
You are aware the polling and research shows that Tony Blair is still the favourite labour leader of those lost working class voters right?
People don't move from Labour to the Tories because Labour aren't left wing enough. People stopped voting Labour because they kept picking leaders who were a laugh - and Ed, unfortunately, didn't have the charisma or presence to be seen as a PM. Sad but that's politics.
There is no vast left wing base waiting to return home to vote labour if they go further left. It doesn't exist in british politics. I don't know why you would think that, as objective evidence says exactly the opposite.
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