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[CyclopsRock]

The polls were relatively close until the civil war broke out post-Brexit. It seems to me that Corbyn could read out Labour's 1945 manifesto and he'd still get hamstrung by mass media and the PLP. At this point, as much as I wish it weren't so (as I do have a huge interest in politics and do wish to see this country better itself) I'm really starting to cease to care, the EU referendum's result was absolutely at odds with my personal beliefs to the point where I can hardly reconcile what happened; the greater British public not holding popular views on Corbyn does little to convince me to stop backing him. I think if, following the party conference this month, the party decides to accept the result and unite behind him (I'm not holding my breath), then we could see stronger opposition week in, week out.

I think it's still too early to call it, either way. We've got nearly four whole years before the next GE, and June showed how decades can take place within days. Anything could happen.

There was a brief window when they were close, but that was months before the Vote of No Confidence.

Plus there's the question of how far ahead they should be. Like, an opposition just being nearly at the same point as a government that's been conducting austerity (quote unquote) for 6 years is pretty lame.

 

[Maledict]

What makes you think Owen Smith would be any more electable? He seems to have adopted most of Corbyn's policies as his own, seems to think we can ignore the referendum result and remain in the EU, and runs the risk of alienating the Muslim electorate with his views on Prevent. He lacks, in my eyes, any form of charisma or distinct personality, and hasn't been doing well in the Leadership Debates -- how would he fare any better as Leader of the Opposition?

Labour's been in disrepute for years now; you say we should / need to be ahead, but the 2015 General Election should have been a dead cert for Labour, and that disaster was before Corbyn took the helm. I don't know who would be doing a better job right now.

Owen won't break the party. That's why I'm supporting him. You cannot have a party where the leader cannot win a vote of no confidence from his MPs. It is beyond stupid that Corbyn stayed on after that, and it infuriates me that his supporters don't seem to understand or care what that means. Corbyn literally cannot form a shadow cabinet ffs!

MPs are not just one equal voice amongst many in the party. They are how we govern and lead the country, and Jeremy cannot do the biggest job of the party leader - leading the parties MPs.

 

[Garjon]

They weren't that close, and the key point is - labour should / need to be ahead! Saying they were close and that labour was only a bit behind is missing the main point - labour are supposed to be ahead at this point in he cycle! If labour are behind now, the odds are hugely against them winning an election.

And yes four years is a long time - but Corvyn shows no sign of improving or of shifting the numbers, and we can't afford to just write off another 5 years in the hope of some miracle. Yes, things might change - but every sign says otherwise.

Several polls showed Labour a single point behind and one point ahead in May and earlier but the important thing is there was a clear trend of increasing support for Labour. However, this was against one of the most reviled PMs for the best part of a century and the media had been almost squarely focused on the referendum. I don't think he will be elected even without the boundary changes but I don't think you can unilaterally call him unelectable. The problem is that there is no one else who has a good chance of winning an election for Labour right now.

 

[Kuros]

Several polls showed Labour a single point behind and one point ahead in May and earlier but the important thing is there was a clear trend of increasing support for Labour. However, this was against one of the most reviled PMs for the best part of a century and the media had been almost squarely focused on the referendum. I don't think he will be elected even without the boundary changes but I don't think you can unilaterally call him unelectable. The problem is that there is no one else who has a good chance of winning an election for Labour right now.

Cameron was not one of the most reviled PM's of modern times. Certainly not pre referendum.

 

[Garjon]

Cameron was not one of the most reviled PM's of modern times. Certainly not pre referendum.

Wow he did win a recent popularity poll; whatever that actually means, the mind boggles.

 

[Maledict]

I was going to say - for the general public, Cameron generally had good favourability ratings. He usually outperformed the wider party which was one of the tools in his pocket to quell dissent in the ranks.

That's part of labours problem - a majority of voters don't revile the Tories or Cameron (or May). Labour just ain't speaking to those voters at all and you can't win without them.

 

[Kuros]

I was going to say - for the general public, Cameron generally had good favourability ratings. He usually outperformed the wider party which was one of the tools in his pocket to quell dissent in the ranks.

That's part of labours problem - a majority of voters don't revile the Tories or Cameron (or May). Labour just ain't speaking to those voters at all and you can't win without them.

Agree with that. The vast majority don't subscribe to the "TORY SCUM" remarks that are posted by a relatively small percentage of voters.

 

[Walshicus]

Owen won't break the party. That's why I'm supporting him. You cannot have a party where the leader cannot win a vote of no confidence from his MPs. It is beyond stupid that Corbyn stayed on after that, and it infuriates me that his supporters don't seem to understand or care what that means. Corbyn literally cannot form a shadow cabinet ffs!

MPs are not just one equal voice amongst many in the party. They are how we govern and lead the country, and Jeremy cannot do the biggest job of the party leader - leading the parties MPs.

But the Labour Party clearly doesn't want to elect Owen as leader. Clearly a huge swathe of the Labour membership are sick generational lurch to the right that New Labourism / Red Toryism has facilitated.

 

[Jezbollah]

But the Labour Party clearly doesn't want to elect Owen as leader. Clearly a huge swathe of the Labour membership are sick generational lurch to the right that New Labourism / Red Toryism has facilitated.

The sad thing is that the Labour Membership and the Labour voters in the electorate (and the voters Labour needs to turn/"earn") are quite a different breed. And there are lot of those Labour members who are blind to those differences until they are faced with an exit poll at 10pm on Election night..

 

[CyclopsRock]

But the Labour Party clearly doesn't want to elect Owen as leader. Clearly a huge swathe of the Labour membership are sick generational lurch to the right that New Labourism / Red Toryism has facilitated.

I'd be genuinely interested in knowing how many of those think Corbyn has a chance to win, and how many think he won't but would rather have someone they believe in than a compromise candidate (especially if they think that candidate won't win too).

 

[phisheep]

Several polls showed Labour a single point behind and one point ahead in May and earlier but the important thing is there was a clear trend of increasing support for Labour. However, this was against one of the most reviled PMs for the best part of a century and the media had been almost squarely focused on the referendum. I don't think he will be elected even without the boundary changes but I don't think you can unilaterally call him unelectable. The problem is that there is no one else who has a good chance of winning an election for Labour right now.

Putting it politely, I don't think you have your historical perspective quite right here. Or maybe you are confused between the extent of the revulsion you feel and the extent of the population that feels revolted.

I'd guess that, revulsion-wise, Thatcher, Blair (post Iraq), Chamberlain, Brown, Eden and even Ramsay McDonald come way ahead of Cameron, who is about as warm and cuddly as you can possibly get in the Conservative Party (barring Ken Clarke, who is an outlier).

 

[Garjon]

Putting it politely, I don't think you have your historical perspective quite right here. Or maybe you are confused between the extent of the revulsion you feel and the extent of the population that feels revolted.

I'd guess that, revulsion-wise, Thatcher, Blair (post Iraq), Chamberlain, Brown, Eden and even Ramsay McDonald come way ahead of Cameron, who is about as warm and cuddly as you can possibly get in the Conservative Party (barring Ken Clarke, who is an outlier).

I corrected myself earlier, I was genuinely surprised how popular he was when I checked. But then that just supports the theory that Corbyn's party was gaining popularity before May.

 

[phisheep]

I corrected myself earlier, I was genuinely surprised how popular he was when I checked. But then that just supports the theory that Corbyn's party was gaining popularity before May.

Sorry, I had missed the correction in trying to catch up.

When you say "before May" do you mean the month or the Prime Minister?

 

[Garjon]

Sorry, I had missed the correction in trying to catch up.

When you say "before May" do you mean the month or the Prime Minister?

The month, haha. Not sure what happened, but the polls showed a sudden downward trend.

 

[phisheep]

The month, haha. Not sure what happened, but the polls showed a sudden downward trend.

I'm hazarding a guess here, but I think that was about the time that the deep Euro splits in the party became apparent (and Corbyn couldn't hold the party line). Certainly around my area all I saw of Labour was a well-organised Leave campaign.

 

[Garjon]

I'm hazarding a guess here, but I think that was about the time that the deep Euro splits in the party became apparent (and Corbyn couldn't hold the party line). Certainly around my area all I saw of Labour was a well-organised Leave campaign.

Ah I thought that all came out afterwards, there was a lot of confusion as to Labour's stance for a while as opposed to outright frustration if I recall. Though that's all anecdotal, btu I don't remember anything really bad for Labour happening around then.

 

[Uzzy]

I'd be genuinely interested in knowing how many of those think Corbyn has a chance to win, and how many think he won't but would rather have someone they believe in than a compromise candidate (especially if they think that candidate won't win too).

Well it'd be nice if Corbyn had a chance to win, or if we had a political system where those kind of views could be represented and acted upon by the executive. But we don't, so there's that wonderful pull between the head and the heart, where you know that a compromise candidate would be needed for any policies to be brought in.

But in that case, where is this Great Blairite Hope? If one existed that at least believed in something, I'd consider supporting them.

 

[Pie and Beans]

This is absolutely insane:
Jeremy Corbyn's team issues list of MPs who it claims undermined leader

VICTIM COMPLEX INTENSIFIES.

Labour party should split now, don't even let him have the gratification. Just thinking about what Tom Watson must have said to get onto the list is incredible. Thats how incompetent Corbyn is that even his allies are now branded as "bullies that were against him". Maniac cunt.

 

[Jezbollah]

This is absolutely insane:
Jeremy Corbyn's team issues list of MPs who it claims undermined leader

VICTIM COMPLEX INTENSIFIES.

Labour party should split now, don't even let him have the gratification. Just thinking about what Tom Watson must have said to get onto the list is incredible. Thats how incompetent Corbyn is that even his allies are now branded as "bullies that were against him". Maniac cunt.

Yep. Neil Coyle was doing the news rounds this morning raging hard on this list. He said he was consulting lawyers as well. Corbyn's kinder style of politics doing it's thing I guess.

 

[CyclopsRock]

This is absolutely insane:
Jeremy Corbyn's team issues list of MPs who it claims undermined leader

VICTIM COMPLEX INTENSIFIES.

Labour party should split now, don't even let him have the gratification. Just thinking about what Tom Watson must have said to get onto the list is incredible. Thats how incompetent Corbyn is that even his allies are now branded as "bullies that were against him". Maniac cunt.

It says in the article that it's because Tom Watson called momentum a "rabble". Hahaha!

 

[Izuna]

smh can Corbyn just start his Socialist party and leave Labour alone?

 

[CyclopsRock]

Woof. I left those bottom two in there for larks, but my word - he the least popular of the relevant (sorry Tim and Kezia) leaders, including two Tories (though admittedly one is the least Tory Tory in the world).

 

[Pie and Beans]

It says in the article that it's because Tom Watson called momentum a "rabble". Hahaha!

Oh I'm sure it was a lot worse that got him onto that list but wasn't nice and easily "part of public record"

 

[Nicktendo86]

The article 50 stance you mention was a quote that was taken out of context for the media spin of "Corbyn wants Brexit now!" which isn't the case. He's made it clear that his stance is to respect the result, and only trigger article 50 once negotiations have been completed. (Something I hope never happens) Whilst I do find myself agreeing with a lot with what he has to say, I also feel his skills to be an effective leader are really lacking. But behaving the way the PLP have has not helped the situation at all, and anyone that could of possibly mounted a serious leadership challenge and turn things around have effectively went into hiding. It's all rather frustrating.

Bullshit. He was live on BBC news the morning of the result saying Art 50 needs to be invoked right now with no delay. He has spent his entire political life protesting against the EU. He paid the most basic lip service to the in campaign that he thought he could get away with in order to not piss the party off too much.

It is the one and only policy I agree with him.

 

[Azzanadra]

smh can Corbyn just start his Socialist party and leave Labour alone?

Or the neo liberals should just start their neo liberal party and leave labour alone?

 

[gutter_trash]

Or the neo liberals should just start their neo liberal party and leave labour alone?

20 years of Tory rule, thanks Corbyn

 

[Nicktendo86]

smh can Corbyn just start his Socialist party and leave Labour alone?

Well, technically Labour identify themselves as a Socialist Democratic party and even still sing the red flag at conference for goodness sake. You could argue that Corbyn is representing the true colours of the party and the rebels are the ones that should form a new party.

It's kinda funny by the way seeing the ones who resigned from the shadow cabinet slowly starting to make soundings that they would be willing to come back. It's like they have all resigned themselves now to Corbyn winning next week.

Owen Smith is a fucking idiot by the way, I can't get over how bad his campaign has been.

 

[CyclopsRock]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...med-the-financial-crash-and-called-himself-a/

John McDonnell, Labour’s shadow chancellor, welcomed the financial crash that wrecked Britain’s economy and insisted he was a Marxist, newly uncovered footage shows.

Mr McDonnell, who is Jeremy Corbyn’s closest political ally, is seen in the 2013 video saying that the economic upheaval proves the faults with modern capitalism.

At once point Mr McDonnell, who was a backbencher at the time, says of the crisis: “I’ve been waiting for this for a generation!”

None of which is that surprising, because he is a Marxist and Marxists do love it when people suffer think that capitalism will destroy itself, bringing about the rapture communism and collective famine ownership of the means of production and wealth. But he's also the shadow chancellor of a social democratic party so yeah.

 

[Nicktendo86]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...med-the-financial-crash-and-called-himself-a/



None of which is that surprising, because he is a Marxist and Marxists do love it when people suffer think that capitalism will destroy itself, bringing about the rapture communism and collective famine ownership of the means of production and wealth. But he's also the shadow chancellor of a social democratic party so yeah.

By far not even close to the worst things he has said, especially on the troubles.

Utter, utter, shitbag cunt.

 

[Walshicus]

20 years of Tory rule, thanks Corbyn

As opposed to the previous twenty years of Red Tory rule?

If the country wants right wing government and the destruction of the state then that's what it wants. But I'd rather have an opposition that actually opposes than two parties you'd need a microscope to tell apart.

 

[Izuna]

Well, technically Labour identify themselves as a Socialist Democratic party and even still sing the red flag at conference for goodness sake. You could argue that Corbyn is representing the true colours of the party and the rebels are the ones that should form a new party.

It's kinda funny by the way seeing the ones who resigned from the shadow cabinet slowly starting to make soundings that they would be willing to come back. It's like they have all resigned themselves now to Corbyn winning next week.

Owen Smith is a fucking idiot by the way, I can't get over how bad his campaign has been.

I wish the downfall of Labour meant the rise of Lib Dems, but it doesn't. It means the rise of hard-right Tory and UKIP. Corbyn has to realise that whatever his intentions are, they do nothing but help himself sleep at night.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Guido Fawkes has got access to a report, written in Labour part official font, about infiltration into Momentum in Liverpool and detailing their tactics. Appears to be a report by moderates spying on Corbyn and later leaked that info to the press in order to undermine JC.

It's all going to kick off.

 

[Maledict]

As opposed to the previous twenty years of Red Tory rule?

If the country wants right wing government and the destruction of the state then that's what it wants. But I'd rather have an opposition that actually opposes than two parties you'd need a microscope to tell apart.

If you need a microscope to tell labour from the Tories apart then you need to see an optician.

We've gone over this endlessly and the people shouting 'Red Tories' never have an explanation or counter for Sure Star. doubling NHS funding, massive reductions in child poverty, massive steps forward in equal rights, huge education investment, Scottish and Welsh devolution and the biggest redistribution of wealth since the 60s.

I swear to god I wonder if anyone was actually alive during the 80s or early 90s. New labour was not the Tories with a different coat of paint. It wasn't a socialist utopia, but neither was it a centre right government that somehow tricked people into supporting it. Let's remember they are the only successful labour politicians of the last 40 years.

 

[travisbickle]

To be honest, I thought keeping lists of other mps who have publicly disparaged you was one of the main tenets of politics.

 

[Par Score]

I wish the downfall of Labour meant the rise of Lib Dems, but it doesn't. It means the rise of hard-right Tory and UKIP. Corbyn has to realise that whatever his intentions are, they do nothing but help himself sleep at night.

The Lib Dems?

You mean the party that at the very first sniff of power jumped into bed with the Tories and wiped out half of their own support* by doing so?

The mainstream of British politics sadly ranges from Tory Max to Diet Tory at the moment, Corbyn falls outside of that spectrum and Labour damn well should to. Give it a decade or two and we might manage to push the needle Left-wards a tad.

* That they then wiped out another half of that half by letting the Tories take the credit for anything they achieved is really the cherry on the cake.

 

[Bony Manifesto]

To be honest, I thought keeping lists of other mps who have publicly disparaged you was one of the main tenets of politics.

Sure, but traditionally it's all handled by whips who take care of things behind closed doors and at an arm's length from the leader of the party. This strategy of publicly leaking lists of MPs hostile to the leader, giving grassroots Corbyn supporters targets on which to mete out their own justice, is a new one.

Of course, this is a party whose chief whip is on one of these lists as an enemy of Corbyn, so tradition might not be an option right now!

 

[Sir_Crocodile]

To be honest, I thought keeping lists of other mps who have publicly disparaged you was one of the main tenets of politics.

"In Defeat, Malice. In Victory, Revenge"

 

[Maledict]

The document Guido has on Liverpool's momentum activity is fascinating, and has led me to again question what the hell is the far left's obsession with Israel and Palestine? What historical thing happened that made this conflict, and only this conflict, the absolute centre point of so many left wing campaigners views? I mean, I deplore what happens there - but it isn't a litmus test of purity for me, nor do I think it is the biggest foreign policy issue we should be discussing on the left.

What about Crimea? South Sudan? Saudia Arabia? Australia's immigrant penal camps?

Why is it THIS thing that above all else drives and motivates people? How did it end up being so central to a lot of far left politics?

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

The document Guido has on Liverpool's momentum activity is fascinating, and has led me to again question what the hell is the far left's obsession with Israel and Palestine? What historical thing happened that made this conflict, and only this conflict, the absolute centre point of so many left wing campaigners views? I mean, I deplore what happens there - but it isn't a litmus test of purity for me, nor do I think it is the biggest foreign policy issue we should be discussing on the left.

What about Crimea? South Sudan? Saudia Arabia? Australia's immigrant penal camps?

Why is it THIS thing that above all else drives and motivates people? How did it end up being so central to a lot of far left politics?

This is exactly what has been going on in our CLP. I've been bleating on about it for months.

 

[Doctor Bat]

Corbyn's support seem to exist on their own life raft, unconcerned with winning an election where they can actually affect change, but pretty chuffed with maintaining some abstract moral high-ground and ideological purity over a genuinely threatening and powerful Tory government.

I feel like this could be said of both major votes this year, at home and abroad.

 

[mclem]

We did have a Labour guy doing the rounds at the weekend asking how we felt about them. I don't recall the exact context, but there's no by-election coming up, so I wondered if this was more general gauging of opinion.

My answer was basically "I'll still vote for you because there's not a great deal of alternative choice, but you guys really aren't filling me with confidence right now". Being where I am, I suspect they might be a bit worried about a swing away from them; this constituency - East Oxford - *was* an LD/Lab marginal for a while, but the LD fell away massively last election, and I can see them being worried the general ill-feeling could have a similar effect on them next time.

In retrospect, I should have highlighted that at the local level, I have absolutely no issue.

 

[Colin.]

Bullshit. He was live on BBC news the morning of the result saying Art 50 needs to be invoked right now with no delay. He has spent his entire political life protesting against the EU. He paid the most basic lip service to the in campaign that he thought he could get away with in order to not piss the party off too much.

It is the one and only policy I agree with him.

The media at the time was running with a very short clip out of a full news interview that gives further context that this would not been done until after the relevant discussions had been made. (Which can be seen here) There is valid criticism that can be given about the man, but such weak, and this point old media spin isn't that.

 

[Mr. Sam]

The Tories are quaking in their boots.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The document Guido has on Liverpool's momentum activity is fascinating, and has led me to again question what the hell is the far left's obsession with Israel and Palestine? What historical thing happened that made this conflict, and only this conflict, the absolute centre point of so many left wing campaigners views? I mean, I deplore what happens there - but it isn't a litmus test of purity for me, nor do I think it is the biggest foreign policy issue we should be discussing on the left.

What about Crimea? South Sudan? Saudia Arabia? Australia's immigrant penal camps?

Why is it THIS thing that above all else drives and motivates people? How did it end up being so central to a lot of far left politics?

I think the vast majority of it stems from disappointment. Israel is a modern, developed nation with strong economic and cultural ties to Western nations, that receives huge amounts of support from said Western nations. It feels shocking that despite all these factors, Israel can nevertheless end up being a de facto apartheid state. People expect Russia annex Crimea - Russia is Russia, it's what they do. Same with South Sudan - sociopolitical and ethnic conflict in postcolonial states is the norm, not the exception. Israel is shocking because it feels, like, say, Canada going solo and conquering a small part of Gabon and denying national determination to the inhabitants of Gabon. People would be infinitely more incensed about that than Crimea because, well, it's Canada - we expect better. It becomes such a powerful issue precisely because of this.

And a small portion of it is anti-semitism, too, although I don't think it's useful focusing on this because the vast majority is not, and the more you try and attach anti-semitism to it, the more they personally feel attacked and labelled as anti-semites, and therefore inclined to not listen to you.

I think the best comparison you picked was Australia's refugee camps. I actually think that might develop into an issue of similar stigma if given the time; it's only a very recent phenomenon and I don't think many people are aware of it yet. It is a similar level of moral decrepitude.

 

[travisbickle]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...med-the-financial-crash-and-called-himself-a/



None of which is that surprising, because he is a Marxist and Marxists do love it when people suffer think that capitalism will destroy itself, bringing about the rapture communism and collective famine ownership of the means of production and wealth. But he's also the shadow chancellor of a social democratic party so yeah.

The stuff you read and write is like Lenin-style propaganda.

 

[darkace]

The Lib Dems?

You mean the party that at the very first sniff of power jumped into bed with the Tories and wiped out half of their own support* by doing so?

The mainstream of British politics sadly ranges from Tory Max to Diet Tory at the moment, Corbyn falls outside of that spectrum and Labour damn well should to. Give it a decade or two and we might manage to push the needle Left-wards a tad.

* That they then wiped out another half of that half by letting the Tories take the credit for anything they achieved is really the cherry on the cake.

How do you plan on pushing the needle leftward from opposition?

 

[CyclopsRock]

The stuff you read and write is like Lenin-style propaganda.

I learn from the best.

 

[Par Score]

How do you plan on pushing the needle leftward from opposition?

How does anyone move the Overton Window?

You either spend years getting media exposure and repeating the same basic idea over and over and over again, or you wait for some massive economic/terrorist shock and blame that on whatever you don't like, while claiming what you do like will fix it.

 

[CyclopsRock]

How does anyone move the Overton Window?

You either spend years getting media exposure and repeating the same basic idea over and over and over again, or you wait for some massive economic/terrorist shock and blame that on whatever you don't like, while claiming what you do like will fix it.

Plus right now the biggest threat to the stability of the Tory government isn't Labour opposition, it's back bench rebellion by the more small-c conservatives. When the government start getting their policies attacked from the right, the Overton Window's not going to move leftwards.

 

[travisbickle]

I learn from the best.

I mean you sound like a peasant regurgitating Lenin propaganda he used to control opinion.