Saber
Gold Member
Isn't GP available on PC?
Why would a person consider Xbox over the Playstation when he could simply play CoD on PC and still have a Playstation?
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Xbox FY23 Q4 gaming revenue increased 1% year-over-year (HW down 13%)
- Thread starter cormack12
- Start date
Isn't GP available on PC?
Why would a person consider Xbox over the Playstation when he could simply play CoD on PC and still have a Playstation?
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Well, relative the pie you are. But if the pie jumps from 250 to 350, and you still hold 15%, then you are technically gaining.
Not enough to change the percentages, but enough to where the numbers are still increasing. Just, at a significantly slower & weaker rate than other competitors, so to investors & shareholders you might as well look like you're shrinking :/
Yep and that is Microsoft's biggest problem; they're a brand that lacks momentum (in gaming). Hellblade 2 is 100% not a system seller, neither is Avowed. So 1P-wise they are probably tapped out for 2024 unless one of the Zenimax teams has a big surprise, possibly iD with a new DOOM or Quake remake, but there's still a (very slim) chance those might be multiplat on PS consoles too. That doesn't do much for Xbox.
Even when they finalize the ABK deal, COD is still coming to PlayStation next year. Is Day 1 Game Pass really "the exclusive" angle they will play with that game on Xbox? How many will bite? They don't know, we don't know.
Though over time during the 10 years, IMO Day 1 in Game Pass will eventually become a bigger & bigger selling point for COD preference on that platform vs. PlayStation, especially if Sony doesn't have something to counter that type of value (not in terms of exclusive competitive FPS games, but in terms of cheaper payment options for game purchases on PlayStation).
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ChorizoPicozo
Member
well, buy an Xbox Series....to "power your dreams"
ByWatterson
Member
Gotta believe the majority of players will be on PC. There'll be a console sales bump, but I'd be surprised if it were a big bump or if Gamepass jumped significantly.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Is the pie growing?
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Eh... Bethesda RGP's have pretty massive sales.
It's been 8 years since they've had a major release, so things can change.. but they can change in either direction. With fairly "hardcore" games like Elden Ring selling massive amounts Starfield is ripe to be a huge success.
StealthGoblin
Banned
The longer we go on it does make more sense to go 3rd party. Their growth is in PC GamePass and they’ll be able to move into mobile with King. They’d make a lot of money off the PlayStation userbase.
havoc00
Member
People will wait until the last minute
Snake29
Banned
I have the Collectors edition in pre-order for this game. But something tels me their will be something wrong with this game in the end.
If your employer offered you a deal to stay on the same salary for the next 20 years, would you take that deal? You'd probably take one look at inflation figures and decline, right? Same reason for business if the value of a $ is declining, you need to increase the amount you earn to keep the purchasing power.
Population growth also plays a role too. If the addressable market size is increasing you should be taking advantage of that.
Different markets and product segments behave in different ways of course, but these are two high level principals of the reason why.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Not everyone has a good PC, good monitor or wants to hook up their PC to their giant TV.
I have GP myself. How am I going to play COD any good on my laptop when it's a 2500U cpu with a Radeon Vega Mobile gpu?
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Yeah if September doesn't see, like a 300 percent increase in sales...its gonna be rough.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
i mean...to be honest, it seems they are fighting a losing battle in the console space. Let see how much market share can they gain after they are able to release banger after banger each quarter.....yep... i don't think even Dr. Strange is going to be able to help with that one....So, from a business perspective it just make sense to go third party.
Salty Popsicle
Banned
Because many people who play on consoles don't have any interest in PC gaming?
Saber
Gold Member
Does it necessarally needs that to play?
Not talking about PC Master race here. I would risk a guess that a casual would buy a simple pc enought to run on low or mid settings.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
A casual would rather just play it on a console.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Saber
Gold Member
I don't agree entirelly. For instance, a PC here is way cheaper than a PS5. It's just that people tend to close their views to a certain specific countries.
I doubt people in my country would simply sell their consoles over a Xbox. Theres no drawback in buying a simple pc enought to play CoD in middle or low settings. But theres alot of drawback selling their base console over a Xbox just to play CoD.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
LOL. I wonder if my laptop is more powerful. It's got 12 gb ram.well, i have a product for you:
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
The issue for MS is, Sony and Nintendo don't want Game Pass on their platforms at all, in its current form, and I can't blame them. What deal do they get from MS from getting a cut off Game Pass subscriptions through their platforms, versus 30% cuts off B2P game sales of those same titles on their platforms, where the former is better financially for them?
I just don't see where it happens, unless Microsoft makes significant changes to how they structure Game Pass on those platforms. And at that point, Sony & Nintendo would probably want Microsoft to implement those same changes for Game Pass on Xbox platforms, too. Because why have a loophole exist where Xbox consoles get the games Day 1 on Game Pass, but Sony & Nintendo don't want Day 1 for those games on their services or Game Pass custom to their platforms due to cutting into B2P sales revenue?
Elden Ring had the benefit of being on PS4 & PS5 platforms which contributed heavily to overall sales. Starfield does not have that benefit. Previous Bethesda games like Fallout 4 and Skyrim got to the numbers they did in large part due to PlayStation (and in Skyrim's case, also Nintendo) platforms.
Without a PlayStation release, Starfield isn't getting beyond 15 million lifetime sales. That's lifetime, as in 4-5 years, so it'll sell slower than Elden Ring did. They need PlayStation & Nintendo if they hope to get beyond 14-15 million lifetime sales for Starfield.
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Katatonic
Member
They ain't competition though.
Thick Thighs Save Lives
NeoGAF's Physical Games Advocate Extraordinaire
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a multicultural team of v
Member
I know what you are saying but that isn't really applicable for a consumer product that has a defined lifespan. There is a clear growth-peak-decline curve that every single product follows, so when the growth part of the curve is actually showing decline that is a huge problem.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Allow then to buy more third party publishers. That'll fix their systmeic issues.
ByWatterson
Member
Given all this, it's fair to ask....is Xbox Series now underselling Xbox One?
graywolf323
Member
I seriously am amazed at how many people are pushing that BS still, and how regulators seemingly bought it too…
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
The post I was replying to was talking about it being a system seller.
Obviously overall sales will be lower, but they'll certainly sell more Xbox's because of Starfield being exclusive. Gamepass certainly has an effect too, but they'll have a surge in Gamepass subs.
Their games have mass appeal was the main point, they aren't some niche hardcore games.
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It seems very plausible yes
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Dude, they've been tracking at OG Xbox levels for basically the whole year
! That system did ~ 6.2 million in its third year on the market...and there's a very strong chance Xbox Series are performing even less than that.They won't sell that many more systems because it's exclusive, in part because a good deal of that hype will be snuffed out between Balder's Gate 3, Mortal Kombat, and Spiderman 2. Plus Super Mario RPG Remake, can't forget that one.
I don't think Bethesda's games have more mass appeal than the Souls games do. I think Skyrim benefited a ton from the hype around shows like Game of Thrones during that time period, but there is no equivalent mainstream mega-hit sci-fi show going on right now (or in the near future from the looks of things) to give Starfield a similar boost. I mean, there are good sci-fi shows out currently (I'm enjoying Foundation, for instance), but I wouldn't say any of these have pop culture megahit status the way Game of Thrones did.
We never got a sales update for Fallout 4, FWIW, after the initial launch shipments and sales, at least to my understanding. Saying Starfield will tap out @ 15 million lifetime isn't even really the same as saying only 15 million will play the game. You have to remember, the game will be in Game Pass "Day 1", that will always act as a limiter to total overall sales as a result. You can't ignore this.
And again, skipping the most popular console brand altogether will also hurt lifetime sales, considering Skyrim & Fallout 4 saw huge sales in large part due to PlayStation platforms. That's just a fact.
StereoVsn
Gold Member
Will it get 15 mil sales considering Day 1 GamePass? Yes, a LOT of people will buy on Steam for better modding, but figure a lot of fans on Xbox/GameOass for PC will not. This will be really interesting to see.
Stardust_Dragon
Banned
No need to worry, because Phil has already assured us that there's these billions of gamers ready to hop on the cloud to play Xbox games! Billions upon billions of gamers on the cloud to play games on Xbox's subscription plan are just going to overwhelm Sony so much that Jimbo will resign in shame and PlayStation will just melt away as a brand in the face of the power of the cloud!
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
That's what I'm saying. Game Pass "Day 1" (outside of whatever they do for an earlier release for those who pre-order) will have an impact on the sales, there's just no way around that. The surprising part IMO is the growth of Game Pass on PC, which will eat more into sales on that platform than I first thought it would.
Game Pass PC is making up the majority of sub growth, so now I'm curious just how much the game actually sells on PC, in addition to Xbox of course.
StereoVsn
Gold Member
Plus Cyberpunk expansion is coming in September, isn't it? I think a LOT of folks will come back for that one.Dude, they've been tracking at OG Xbox levels for basically the whole year
They won't sell that many more systems because it's exclusive, in part because a good deal of that hype will be snuffed out between Balder's Gate 3, Mortal Kombat, and Spiderman 2. Plus Super Mario RPG Remake, can't forget that one.
ByWatterson
Member
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Of course, no need to repeat yourself when I agree lol
Point was Bethesda RPGs have huge appeal, that's it.. that was my entire point, their past game's sales was the evidence.. I wasn't saying anything about how many copies Starfield will sell, nor was I suggesting it will sell as much as Elden Ring. I was simply saying a game like ER doing well is evidence that the RPG genre is really healthy right now.
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FalsettoVibe
Member
Won't move the needle much. You will probably have a lot of PC players
Luminoth-4545
Member
We know that Oct to Dec 2022 was 3.2 million units so it looks like Jan to Mar was 1.3 million and Apr to June was 1.4 to 1.5 million. Of course we do not know each quarters X/S splits but that can't be helped.
Note: Revenue split is calculated by Welfare from InstallBase. Oct to Dec 2020 revenue includes Xbox One revenue, Xbox One was discontinued worldwide at the end of this quarter.
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diffusionx
Gold Member
If the market grew say 3% and you grew 1%, well you're not even doing that, you're not keeping up.
The point is, put yourself in the shoes of an investor. Money has an opportunity cost, if I put money somewhere I'm not putting it somewhere else. If I am putting my money in company A that is stagnant while company B is not, then the obvious question is why didnt I put my money in company B, and what are they doing that company A isn't? After all, clearly there is growing demand for this product that company B is meeting and company A is not, so the problem isn't some abstract notion of "capitalism", it's clearly company A's behavior and actions.
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Pelta88
Member
XBOX series falling behind XBOX One is a catastrophe. Yes. Microsoft has a Couple Trillion in Market cap but I'm talking about the state of their gaming division, not the stock options of Microsoft as a whole.
Behind XBOX One... Which was Behind 360 to the tune of 38 million units... This early into the generation?
I'm sure some sycophant will damage control with some "But Phil Spencer said" spin but that is a catastrophe regardless of the spin.
Behind XBOX One... Which was Behind 360 to the tune of 38 million units... This early into the generation?
I'm sure some sycophant will damage control with some "But Phil Spencer said" spin but that is a catastrophe regardless of the spin.
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thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
Well, I thought that statement was in passing reference to Starfield but maybe I was mistaken. I think Elden Ring could in theory always be argued as a wildcard of sorts, that game had several years of hype to build on.
But FWIW, it's not necessarily the only RPG doing well in the market. Diablo 4 & TOTK, FF XVI, etc. are all doing well sales-wise. I can't really think of a time in the past five years where RPGs were struggling to do strong or even decent numbers, actually.
We know that Oct to Dec 2022 was 3.2 million units so it looks like Jan to Mar was 1.3 million and Apr to June was 1.5 million. Of course we do not know each quarters X/S splits but that can't be helped.
Note: Revenue split is calculated by Welfare from InstallBase
Jesus Christ...2.8 million in six months...
Again, OG Xbox did ~ 6.2 million in its third year, which is already lower than XBO, which is lower than 360. Xbox Series is the worst-selling Xbox platform in the brand's history.
Like, how do you underperform your first console? How is that even possible? Microsoft found a way, credit where it's due
.Agreed to what is being said here. 1% growth is nothing for investors as, yeah, it basically is stagnant. The scary part for Xbox here being, Microsoft are masters at making numbers dance to optically give the impression of growth that isn't actually happening, so even with that "skill" at their disposal, they can only muster 1% growth overall to report to shareholders.
That must be really embarrassing for them.
GHG
Member
The consumer has spoken, this is not worthy competition.
StealthGoblin
Banned
I think a sizeable amount of the Starfield gamers already have the system. There’s already a baked in userbase there, and within that userbase a majority will already have GamePass, so for a sizeable chunk of Starfield players, Xbox won’t generate additional revenue.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Diminishing hardware sales in the third year of a generation is very bad news.
StealthGoblin
Banned
Given it’s now fallen behind Xbox One, which had already drastically fallen behind Xbox 360 - there has to be questions about hardware moving forward.
Out of interest, how is PS5 tracking against PS4? Neither platform has truly hit its stride with games, but I feel Sony has more gears to go through.
ZehDon
Member
Oh, it's actually quite easy: don't release a major first party title in close to eighteen months, fail to produce anything resembling a major showcase AAA title period, and put obvious failures like Halo Infinite and Redfall front and center for your brand. And here we are. People buy consoles to play games, and Microsoft have failed to actually release any....Again, OG Xbox did ~ 6.2 million in its third year, which is already lower than XBO, which is lower than 360. Xbox Series is the worst-selling Xbox platform in the brand's history.
Like, how do you underperform your first console? How is that even possible? Microsoft found a way, credit where it's due
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