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[sazzy]

PA rally is anyone wants to watch Rudy talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5B8qbv9aso

 

[User 463088]

If Republican internals have it tied in Indiana and her up 11 in Pennsylvania, she should be up 5-6 in Ohio.

This assumes Ohio isn't trash.

 

[Pyrokai]

It can't. I've been saying the house is GONE for weeks now- this has been obvious since the first debate polls started rolling in.

Gerrymandering has absolutely destroyed the GOP and they never saw this coming. They have right now 55 districts that lean R+4 or less. None of those are going to survive a scenario where clinton is +9, +10, +11 nationally.

Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I did miss how Lee Fang said that Hillary sounds like a Republican when she says wants to raise Social Security taxes on the rich.

Hillary sounds like a Republican whenever she talks about the deficit or debt.

https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/788929987495596032

So strong.

 

[Xis]

Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.

Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.

 

[sazzy]

Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.

That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.

 

[sazzy]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ig-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/

 

[Pyrokai]

Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.

That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.

Gotcha.... Interesting. I haven't followed for a couple days..... Is she up by 10 points right now???

 

[kevin1025]

Trump's Gettysburg speech almost sounds like a dropping out speech.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gotcha.... Interesting. I haven't followed for a couple days..... Is she up by 10 points right now???

She was up by 7 points before the last debate, no polls since the last debate.

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Trump's Gettysburg speech almost sounds like a dropping out speech.

I was just thinking that right now. Those first few lines were a wtf moment.

 

[gutter_trash]

PA rally is anyone wants to watch Rudy talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5B8qbv9aso

today: says that Gettysburg is where freedom was fought for, praises Lincoln....
but sent Don Junior to Mississippi a few months ago to defend the Confederate flag

 

[Pyrokai]

She was up by 7 points before the last debate, no polls since the last debate.

Wouldn't it be such a twist if Trump concedes on election day in like, the most un-Trump way? "She won fair and square....she deserves it and fought hard"

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Started to watch and Trump immediately launched into voter fraud conspiracies.

Now onto conspiracies that James Comey (R) covered up Hillary Clinton's crimes.

 

[Chezzymann]

Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances

 

[Revolver]

I hope after this election I don't have to hear the term "counterpuncher" ever again. There's a difference between defending yourself and being a thin-skinned crybaby that gets baited at the drop of a hat.

 

[sazzy]

Started to watch and Trump immediately launched into voter fraud conspiracies.

Now onto conspiracies that James Comey (R) covered up Hillary Clinton's crimes.

yep... it'll take a while for him to get through this

its same speech over and over and over again....

if the breitbart headline is any indication, he might launch into paul ryan again as well

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Why is Trump retweeting a random Facebook post alleging a massive conspiracy? lol

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/789792240390533124

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Started to watch and Trump immediately launched into voter fraud conspiracies.

Now onto conspiracies that James Comey (R) covered up Hillary Clinton's crimes.

The whole "Clinton shouldn't have been allowed to run" angle always sounds like sour grapes.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances

That's because of the lack of polling and insistence on including bullshit daily polls like Rass and LA Times

 

[gutter_trash]

lol crowd sizes

 

[Owzers]

Trumps closing pitch: crowd size and the media won't say he's up in the polls.

 

[sazzy]

Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances

that IBD/TIPP poll started publishing its daily tracker this week.

 

[Manmademan]

Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.

Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.

That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.

Exactly. A simple explanation here is that republicans when gerrymandering didn't just pack democrats into small, high democratic districts, they also spread out their OWN highly republican districts to turn areas that were "even" or "leaning democratic" into republican areas.

a very simplistic example would be taking a district that leans republican by 10 points, and a district that's evenly split, and redrawing lines so you have two republican districts that are +5. Again, it's a simplistic example but this is exactly what the GOP ended up doing- sacrificing a lot of areas with heavily republican "lean" to create a lot of districts that are marginally republican:

. The chart below shows PVI ratings for all of the GOP’s House seats. Republicans hold 37 districts rated R+2 or lower and 18 at R+3 or R+4, for a total of 55 marginal districts. Democrats, by contrast, hold half as many.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ig-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/

normally, a 4 or 5 point lean is VERY difficult for democrats to overcome, especially when you consider incumbents tend to have an advantage. Even in a presidential year the national margin is usually only about 3 or 4 points or so. Obama 08 was only 7 points, and that kind of candidate and the record breaking turnout that came with him doesn't show up all that often.

unfortunately, what seems to be happening here is that the republican party ended up running a candidate that was SO bad that they're looking at a historic loss of reagan/mondale proportions. Hillary has several polls in the 9, 10, and 11 point range and there is an argument (based on ground game, and unlikely voters showing up in record numbers) that these estimates are all lowballs. They're losing not only "contestable" districts, but they're losing districts that would have been safe if they had never gerrymandered in the first place.

it's absolutely a disaster.

 

[Chezzymann]

that IBD/TIPP poll started publishing its daily tracker this week.

Oh is that why its changing every time I look at it? I was wondering why

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump at Gettysburg complaining that the media won't cover the Ras poll feels sacrilegious.

Trump has become very anti-trust now that he thinks that corporations are against him.

edit: Trump fans are cheering wildly at Trump saying he will sue his accusers WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE.

 

[Owzers]

Trump complaining Amazon isn't paying enough taxes, this is too much

 

[SexyFish]

Trump says he'll sue all the women after the election.

 

[thebloo]

"Every woman lied, they will be sued".
People cheering.

Motherfucker, that's a war speech.

 

[sazzy]

"Every woman lied, they will be sued".

People cheering.

if they're lying, sue them now!

what a turd.

 

[kevin1025]

Trump says he'll sue all the women after the election.

All women and media. The totally dishonest!

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Trump says he'll sue all the women after the election.

Just like he's suing the NY Times...any day now.

 

[Boke1879]

I thought this was supposed to be what he'd do in his 100 days? Why is he saying he's sue the women. He's a fucking idiot

 

[Grief.exe]

Trump complaining Amazon isn't paying enough taxes, this is too much

His tax plan is literally the opposite of this.

Trump says he'll sue all the women after the election.

"Every woman lied, they will be sued".
People cheering.

Motherfucker, that's a war speech.

"Why are all these accusations coming 3 weeks before an election?"

Are you really that dense?

 

[Loudninja]

Trump says he'll sue all the women after the election.

Oh man.

 

[kevin1025]

So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after he loses where he sues everyone.

 

[shiba5]

PA rally is anyone wants to watch Rudy talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5B8qbv9aso

Ew, no thanks.

 

[Owzers]

So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after where he sues everyone.

There has to be a retaliation period folks, these are important issues we can't ignore.

 

[Loudninja]

So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after he loses where he sues everyone.

Haha.

Man this sounds amazing.

 

[User 463088]

Oh is that why its changing every time I look at it? I was wondering why

There have been no live phone polls. RCP isn't your best bet. I'd stick with Pollster. I believe RCP treats each daily tracker as a separate poll. This isn't a great policy. Plus, they include that stupid LA Times thing. God help me, but if you want a look at the polls, go with 538 or Pollster.

 

[Crocodile]

I thought this was supposed to be a "serious" policy, "what I would do if I was elected" speech. I'm not listening to the speech (fuck Trump's voice) but looking at the chryons, this seems like a standard rally speech.

 

[Dominican Power]

This shit needs to be over with. US elections need to be shorter.

 

[rjinaz]

Jesus. At this point how can you watch Trump and feel anything but fear? This man is scary. I am watching this and am scared. He would attempt to kill democracy and is deranged with his conspiracies.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm sorry but "Mexico gets the cash, we get the drugs." is one of the worst parts of Trump's stump speech. The U.S.'s drug consumption leads to massive amounts of violence in Mexico!

I wish one person would call out this fucker on this.

 

[thebloo]

Now he just dumped the (ok written) script and went on a rant on Mexico and China.
It's cool that it's easy to see when he's off prompter because he's so bad at reading.

He's starting to lay out the plan.

 

[ampere]

Can we talk instead about how bad Lady Gaga's new album is

tragedy ugh

what?!

I hope I like it, I liked Artpop and people said that was bad

 

[shiba5]

So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after he loses where he sues everyone.

This sounds insane. How long before he says he will jail all his accusers? We can't be that far off.

 

[sazzy]

lol donald thinks he will be able to pass a constitutional amendment in 100 days

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is the dumbest plan I've ever of other than point 4.

 

[kevin1025]

So he's going to do a constitutional amendment on his first day, then make term limits, and ban officials becoming lobbyists for five years. Sounds like a busy day, I guess.