PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Carpe Carnim said:
Oh man!

Bloomberg has breathed new life into Trump-Twitter. They're hopped-up on hopium something fierce!

Keep banking those votes Dems, then let's dash those inflated hopes in 13 days!
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Whilst they ignore the other 2 Florida polls in the past two days... that each have him down 3... and the early voting numbers which are painting a horrendous picture for republicans. Anyway haha.
 
Simon Belmont said:
But she'll win even without Florida? What are they celebrating?
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Winning FL proves, I guess, that he is a Mainstream candidate who was just as relevant as the hated Dole, McCain, Romney that the Establishment shoved down their throats.

It's all about setting the rhetorical battlefield for the approaching Civil War in the GOP. Basically, it all boils down to which camp keeps the branding, and which camp has to either shut-up, or slink-off to another party.
 
Veritigo_X said:
Women secretly fantasizing about Trump, polls oversampling D's, liberal men still stuck in their parent's basement because all the single women only want to fuck Trump, Hillary halloween mask sales are way down...

Not looking good folks.
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I had to purchase I new bed I wet my old one so much.
 
So what are the odds that Trump gets 40% of the national vote?

Currently deciding whether or not I should take that bet. A few weeks ago I would have taken it without hesitation... But now? Not so sure.
 
Ann Selzer has forgotten more about polling than I will likely ever know, so I will not try and come up with problems with that FL poll. What I will do is note that there is no reason to panic over a single poll showing a Trump lead within the margin of error. Given the magnitude of the likely Clinton lead we should expect to see something like this every once in a while in a state as heavily polled as Florida. As always, throw the new polls onto the pile and look at the aggregate. Until we see enough polls showing Trump ahead to move that there is no reason to worry about Florida. And everything is point to a Clinton victory from early voting numbers to national polls to decisions being made by the campaigns to reports from strategists to...

Looks at Halloween mask sales figures...

FUCK
 
Hell, there's even a newer poll that came out today showing him getting 24% of the African American vote in Florida. (Which isn't going to happen, btw). So, ya, I feel good about Florida.

As to the Indians, if their mascot wasn't racist trash, I'd be happier. I want them to win, though. But, baseball is boring. And the costumes aren't even cute that the players wear.
 
Carpe Carnim said:
Winning FL proves, I guess, that he is a Mainstream candidate who was just as relevant as the hated Dole, McCain, Romney that the Establishment shoved down their throats.

It's all about setting the rhetorical battlefield for the approaching Civil War in the GOP. Basically, it all boils down to which camp keeps the branding, and which camp has to either shut-up, or slink-off to another party.
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Yeah I guess. I'm really fascinated by what's going to happen to the republicans, the same way one is fascinated by a car crash.
 
adam387 said:
Hell, there's even a newer poll that came out today showing him getting 24% of the African American vote in Florida. (Which isn't going to happen, btw). So, ya, I feel good about Florida.

As to the Indians, if their mascot wasn't racist trash, I'd be happier. I want them to win, though. But, baseball is boring. And the costumes aren't even cute that the players wear.
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Cavs won though and LBJ had his 1st triple double in a season opener
 
IBD, LAT and ASS are skewing the aggregates everywhere lol. Hillary was +7 on rcp aggregate a week or so ago. Now she's 4.4.

Good I guess. Gives deplorables something to look forward to, which will make their tears all the more sweet.
 
RustyNails said:
IBD, LAT and ASS are skewing the aggregates everywhere lol. Hillary was +7 on rcp aggregate a week or so ago. Now she's 4.4.

Good I guess. Gives deplorables something to look forward to, which will make their tears all the more sweet.
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I'm amazed that any reputable outlet is still including LAT after it's been thoroughly debunked. Huffington Pollster stays winning though, they NEVER included it.
 
Spoiled Milk said:
Reminder that Hillary has won over a larger percentage of Bernie supporters than Obama ever won of Hillary supporters (a huge chunk of which voted McCain).

Who has the most disagreeable, whiney fans now? ;)
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The only time I really feel residual resentment toward Bernie supporters is when I think about John Lewis being shouted down by anti-TPP chanting during his speech at the convention. So I try not to think about that.
 
Toxi said:
"You do realize I'm an immigrant too?"

"You're not like the other ones though."

I just... Wow.
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I had a great conversation this morning too.

*Someone in the office is talking about the Elton John song "Benny and the Jets"*

Old 70+ year old co-worker that sits in the office behind me says "I always liked [Elton John's] music, even if he is gay. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I'm actually fine with that, I have some friends that are that."

He goes on a little bit, without me saying a word to him to acknowledge what he was saying. Until he drops this little gem:

"The only thing I really have a problem with is when blacks mix with whites. In fact I once had a football coach that..."

I interrupt him there and tell him to stop talking. He looks at me confused and says "What! I was only telling a story." He then continues on with me not looking at him and mumbles something about how his high school football coach disowned his daughter for being in a relationship with a black man.

He isn't really my boss in anyway thankfully, but he literally sits right behind me everyday in the office. If he was my age and I was his boss I would have fired him on the spot probably, or reported him or something. Fucking south makes me so angry sometimes.
 
Two new Hillary ads (her closing statement ads, pretty much). One narrated by Morgan Freeman:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_co...-t46xuxMCLoNuUolquknv-5V7dkI73dgXlE7z_kXSlmqw

https://m.youtube.com/watch?ebc=ANy...gXlE7z_kXSlmqw&time_continue=28&v=p4gRAKAjd04

Basileus777 said:
Obama's 2012 7 point victory was by 68k votes. A 24.k early vote lead is significant.
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This is just from Clark, but:

The totals (I don't have Tuesday's mail yet): 28,500 lead for the Democrats in Clark. That's 50 percent to 31 percent, or 5 points above the registration difference.

In 2012, after four days, it was 25,000, and the difference was 4 points above registration.
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Dems are ahead of their raw vote lead in Washoe as well. They're doing better than in 2012.
 
thestopsign said:
I had a great conversation this morning too.

*Someone in the office is talking about the Elton John song "Benny and the Jets"*

Old 70+ year old co-worker that sits in the office behind me says "I always liked [Elton John's] music, even if he is gay. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I'm actually fine with that, I have some friends that are that."

He goes on a little bit, without me saying a word to him to acknowledge what he was saying. Until he drops this little gem:

"The only thing I really have a problem with is when blacks mix with whites. In fact I once had a football coach that..."

I interrupt him there and tell him to stop talking. He looks at me confused and says "What! I was only telling a story." He then continues on with me not looking at him and mumbles something about how his high school football coach disowned his daughter for being in a relationship with a black man.

He isn't really my boss in anyway thankfully, but he literally sits right behind me everyday in the office. If he was my age and I was his boss I would have fired him on the spot probably, or reported him or something. Fucking south makes me so angry sometimes.
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Wow, I thought I had a shitty start to my day. Sorry to hear about that.

At least you responded and pointed out what he was doing wrong.
 
Also, Democrats are the worst. Like people are harassing my bae Jon Favreau over the Bloomberg Poll. We have like 20 polls showing her ahead, but one poll comes out and get the sheets changed. This is why Republicans get shit done. They can be drowning in an ocean of their own tears, but one decent number comes out for them, and they're suddenly Jesus and able to walk on water.
 
With Nevada I can't get her to lose even in a worse case scenario. Oh I guess she could lose Pennsylvania. I wish they were doing better in North Carolina tho.
 
Teggy said:
So I'm looking at this map:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/gP7PL

I mean, unless you think Trump can somehow pull off PA, MI, WI, CO, MN, or NM, none of which seems at all likely, isn't the election basically called if even just NH goes to Clinton?
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The worst-case scenario has always pretty much always been:

PA, MI, WI, CO, NH, VA (all states she has probably a 90%+ chance of winning) gets Clinton to 270. Even during September when things were super close, that firewall of sorts held up according to state polling.

Good news is that it looks like Clinton has some padding with FL, NC and NV all heavily leaning her way as well. OH, IA and AZ are just for running up the score.
 
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