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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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PBY said:
To put a bow on this:

1- Russia tried to interfere w/ our election. Its unclear to what extent, if at all, they affected the outcome.
2- Obama placed sanctions on Russia for the foregoing.
3- How are those sanctions preventing Russia from interfering w/ future elections? That part doesn't seem clear to me at all.
4- Compare the above with the monthly death numbers from Syria.

That's all I'm saying. I need to see evidence that these sanctions are in any way a deterrent to future bad actions from Russia.
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There's a reason that Russia wants to get rid of sanctions so hard. Not necessary for deterring, but punishment. Russia now needs to be more careful than doing something similar like Crimea.
 
PBY said:
The article you posted just said their economy was hurt and that it likely would lead to social unrest in Russia.

How is that solving ANY of the problems the sanctions seek to target?
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Kremlin... does not want a revolution in its country? Is this hard to understand?
 
PBY said:
Please don't make this a discussion about privilege, bc that's a REALLY interesting and problematic reading of this word imo.

We're off the rails if we're talking about conspiracy theories to hack fucking nukes (and yes, I've read the reports). Come on.
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Russia invaded a sovereign nation and clearly wants to expand more. Tell those folks in Crimea how much of a "non-issue" Russia is.

Russia attacked us. The proper response is retaliation, both from us and the EU.
 
TheLaughingStock said:
It seems folks are living in a fantasy. NK is forcing the US as we speak to accept their nuclear capability and to the diplomatic table...yet people think "blanket economic sanction" is getting us what we want? Pure delusion.
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NK is being propped up by China. The two situations aren't really that comparable.
 
TheLaughingStock said:
It seems folks are living in a fantasy. NK is forcing the US as we speak to accept their nuclear capability and to the diplomatic table...yet people think "blanket economic sanction" is getting us what we want? Pure delusion.
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NK is because the sanctions achieved leverage but the Bush admin was adamant on not speaking and continuing a wholesale adversarial role. With that NK sought to get to the table they way they could (and with Chinese backing) are using nukes as a means to gain their own leverage.

Case in point is Iran. Broad sanctions have limited and cut Iran out of the world to the point where we were able to negotiate sanctions relief for disarmament of nuclear reserves. Russia needs the same pressure to bring them to negotiate in good faith.
 
PBY said:
Explain it then? Actually asking.
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Sanctions = bad for Russia and people's views of god king emperor Putin. Russia corrupts cant get quite as rich, etc etc its bad all around.

Hacking and wars = desperation moves to brainwash folks just like you into thinking power plays like ceasefires and corrupting democracys = very good things for Russia.

Therefore, hacking and wars should = very bad things for Russia, like sanctions.
 
PBY said:
Please don't make this a discussion about privilege, bc that's a REALLY interesting and problematic reading of this word imo.

We're off the rails if we're talking about conspiracy theories to hack fucking nukes (and yes, I've read the reports). Come on.
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"Problematic" and "conspiracy theories" are just handwaving. Do you have actual arguments against the stories about Russian hacking of nuclear plants? Are you in fact not threatened by Russian hacking of American institutions? If so, then you're in a more privileged situation than I and my family are with regard to this issue, and your blithe dismissal doesn't add anything to anyone's understanding of the issue.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/technology/nuclear-plant-hack-report.html?
 
PBY said:
Force Putin's hand to do what?
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Not to fucking invade Ukraine further, stop bombing the shit out of everything in Syria, stop financing RT, stop hacking US elections. He knows that there are consequences to the shit he does so he is careful. You are suggesting to get rid of consequences and let him do whatever he fucking wants to. This is not a hard concept to grasp.
 
Resident_UA said:
Not to fucking invade Ukraine further, stop bombing the shit out of everything in Syria, stop financing RT, stop hacking US elections. He knows that there are consequences to the shit he does so he is careful. You are suggesting to get rid of consequences and let him do whatever he fucking wants to. This is not a hard concept to grasp.
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Hasn't Russia been doing the above since 2014?
 
PBY said:
I'm not defending Russia. Its a fucking hell hole run by autocrats without any regard for human rights.

I don't think our current sanctions do much to solve the above issues though - but open to hearing a convincing argument to the contrary.

I do think that a ceasefire saves lives. That I support.
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You know, we could save even more lives if we all just agreed that Ukraine has no sovereignty and let Russia have it wholesale.

Let me try to break this down for you. When a country acts in a reprehensible manner, when they invade and kill, there are a few different levers that other nations can pull to curb this behavior.

They can respond with military force. A pretty straight forward response that gennerally inevitably costs lives. Or they can respond with sanctions. Sanctions are more complicated, but they avoid direct military conflict.

If you remove the sanctions before the sanctioned nation repents and stops the behavior that precipitated the sanction, then you destroy the effectiveness of future sanctions. Nations learn that your sanctions have no teeth and they can just wait them out and have their cake and eat it too.

When you cheerlead the removal of these Russian sanctions, you are cheerleading the destruction of one of the primary tools we have in avoiding armed conflict. You are cheering a more dangerous world where state violence is more prevalent. And then you have the audacity to say that the people in favor of sanctions are the hawks.
 
Resident_UA said:
Not to fucking invade Ukraine further stop bombing the shit out of everything in Syria, stop financing RT, stop hacking US elections. He knows that there are consequences to the shit he does so he is careful. You are suggesting to get rid of consequences and let him do whatever he fucking wants to. This is not a hard concept to grasp.
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Which in some ways worked. Russia hasn't gone much further in Ukraine and I think decreased some level of support for the separatists, but there is still conflict.
 
PBY said:
Hasn't Russia been doing the above since 2014?
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If you're tired of war and think sanctions are worthless, then how should we be reacting to Russia when they annex other countries' territory and run influence ops on foreign elections? Do we just accept they will do whatever they want, whenever they want, and allow them to do so without any fear of reprisal? What's the fourth option that isn't counterattack, sanctions, and do nothing?
 
Blader said:
If you're tired of war and think sanctions are worthless, then how should we be reacting to Russia when they annex other countries' territory and run influence ops on foreign elections? Do we just accept they will do whatever they want, whenever they want, and never allow them to do so without any retaliation? What's the fourth option that isn't counterattack, sanctions, and do nothing?
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For the record - ive never said sanctions are worthless. This only started bc I said i would accept a scaling back of the hacking sanctions if it meant a real ceasefire.
 
PBY said:
Where is the lie though?
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Obama's response was blunted by the Republicans and his desire to not be seen as rigging the election, a Trump talking point. Once it was completely clear what happened, he shut down Russian facilities and expelled dozens of suspected spies. You're full of shit.
 
Blader said:
If you're tired of war and think sanctions are worthless, then how should we be reacting to Russia when they annex other countries' territory and run influence ops on foreign elections? Do we just accept they will do whatever they want, whenever they want, and never allow them to do so without any retaliation? What's the fourth option that isn't counterattack, sanctions, and do nothing?
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He'll sputter out some answer that mentions #diplomacy and his distaste for war, and he'll again feign naivete to avoid addressing your points.

You can't reason with someone who doesn't want to be reasoned with.
 
Autodidact said:
He'll sputter out some answer that mentions #diplomacy and his distaste for war, and he'll again feign naivete to avoid addressing your points.

You can't reason with someone who doesn't want to be reasoned with.
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You're mis representing my position. Anyways carry on.
 
PBY said:
For the record - ive never said sanctions are worthless. This only started bc I said i would accept a scaling back of the hacking sanctions if it meant a real ceasefire.
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So what do you mean by this comment:

Hasn't Russia been doing the above since 2014?
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Because I took that to mean that you don't find the sanctions against Russia to be an effective deterrent. And if they're not effective as-is in your eyes, then that makes them kinda worthless no (especially if you're willing to accept their removal or further weakening in regards to a completely different situation)?

So if you don't think the sanctions are working right now, don't want to levy tougher sanctions, and don't want to launch a military strike on Russia (over the election hacking or Ukraine), then what exactly is our Russia response?
 
Putin thinks his Russian script hackers will keep influencing American presidential elections down the line or he is just a short sighted idiot. The next Democratic president should do everything in her or his power to dispose of Putin who is threat to progress and world stability.
 
chadskin said:
Meanwhile in America:

DEIK9PGXoAMD8Kv.jpg
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To be fair, "Do not touch" is in quotes. Maybe he thought it was an ironically titled modern art sculpture.
 
This Russia defending is embarrassing, right down to "Obama is weak" and "possibly they hacked, maybe had effect, nobody knows!" There is a possible debate to be had relating to ending bloodshed vs. punishing malicious acts of aggression/espionage, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence that they will uphold any sort of trade.
 
Blader said:
So what do you mean by this comment:



Because I took that to mean that you don't find the sanctions against Russia to be an effective deterrent. And if they're not effective as-is in your eyes, then that makes them kinda worthless no (especially if you're willing to accept their removal or further weakening in regards to a completely different situation)?

So if you don't think the sanctions are working right now, don't want to levy tougher sanctions, and don't want to launch a military strike on Russia (over the election hacking or Ukraine), then what exactly is our Russia response?
Click to expand...

Of course sanctions, in a vaccum, have value. My comment was meant to parse that there are different sets of sanctions targeted at different bad acts, and we should be careful when we speak about the net effects/results of such sanctions. You have the 2014 - now sanctions, which had support with our allies, and then the hacking sanctions.

That's all.
 
Dierce said:
Putin thinks his Russian script hackers will keep influencing American presidential elections down the line or he is just a short sighted idiot. The next Democratic president should do everything in her or his power to dispose of Putin who is threat to progress and world stability.
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And here is where we arrive at the part that really worries me. When has this ever worked?
 
PBY said:
Hasn't Russia been doing the above since 2014?
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I mean there's a reason why Putin sends "green men" to do his job and why he blames "patriotically minded individuals" for hacking. Clearly he knows there are consequences and clearly he gives a shit. Removing consequences basically allows him to act freely (i.e. he didn't have to stop in Ukraine where he stopped. He would like to have land connection to Crimea, but right now he doesn't think it's worth the trouble)
 
PBY said:
And here is where we arrive at the part that really worries me. When has this ever worked?
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Iran.

Osama Bin Laden attacked the United States. We invaded Afghanistan (correctly) because they were harboring him. When we found where he was, we put a bullet through his brain.

Putin and Russia attacked the United States. They have invaded Ukraine. But they have nukes- armed conflict is not an option as a response because of them. This means we go to alternatives.
 
PBY said:
Of course sanctions, in a vaccum, have value. My comment was meant to parse that there are different sets of sanctions targeted at different bad acts, and we should be careful when we speak about the net effects/results of such sanctions. You have the 2014 - now sanctions, which had support with our allies, and then the hacking sanctions.

That's all.
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Ok, and which of these sets of sanctions do you accept scaling back or lifting in order to strike a temporary ceasefire in Syria?
 
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