TacticalFox88
Banned
Which makes me taking PD seriously, even harder.
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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Which makes me taking PD seriously, even harder.
Presently, Obama has a slight advantage. But given the precarious state of the economy, the electoral advantage could readily evaporate.
The forecast affirms what most reasonable observers already inferred; the outcome will be close, although Obama retains a slight advantage. He should win unless the economy totally arrests.
The fundraising should serve as an obvious indication that Republican enthusiasm will not be dampened by Romney's candidacy. He may be a weak candidate, although I think his demerits have been exaggerated, but the GOP will support him regardless. Obama is vulnerable to defeat. They'll not stay home as has been frequently posited.
An important detail about the RNC and Romney numbers.
Nearly all of their haul came from pretty large donations. My understanding is, now that Romney is the clear nominee, donors who gave to Romney's primary fund are now giving to his general election fund and can thus max out to him a second time. As with what happened during the primary, I suspect his pool of wealthy donors will dry up in a few months.
After which they'll be giving to the Super PACs, of course. But I think Romney's numbers will flatten out because his donor base is much smaller than Obama's.
As a point of contrast, 98% of Obama's totals came from donations $250 or less, compared to just 12% for Romney.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-rnc-outraise-obama-dnc-with-huge-768
Nearly all of their haul came from pretty large donations. My understanding is, now that Romney is the clear nominee, donors who gave to Romney's primary fund are now giving to his general election fund and can thus max out to him a second time. As with what happened during the primary, I suspect his pool of wealthy donors will dry up in a few months.
After which they'll be giving to the Super PACs, of course. But I think Romney's numbers will flatten out because his donor base is much smaller than Obama's.
As a point of contrast, 98% of Obama's totals came from donations $250 or less, compared to just 12% for Romney.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
I felt a bit depressed at first with Romney's surge, but now I see it's all just the buzz of getting the nomination and him 'beating his chest'. So to speak.
Romney could very well burn through his Campaign funds fast, which seems to have been donated in large chunks ahead of time. While Obama on the other hand will get more donations on a more consistent basis from his regular donors. Romney's grassroots support has always been pretty weak, compared to Obama. It may not mean much now, but it could turn into a bit of a problem if he plans on going head-on with him. Or he could just run back to his big donors.
I realize that summer will be a dark period, with Eurozone economy and other issues going against the President, but things won't get interesting, and more definite, till afterwards. With Romney picking his VP, campaign stops around the country, and of course the debates. That's when it'll get real. If we're all in a panic like this in late September-early October, then we'll really know what's what.
I'm not saying that Obama is going to win this, not at all. These past two weeks have been pretty sobering, and I think we all realize now how easily Obama can lose the election. It'll certainly be an emotional experience for most, that's for sure.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I hope you are right
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Loving the optimism today, guys. Was it just the unemployment numbers or what?
cartoon_soldier
Member
12,000 down is nothing to celebrate. Last month started with more than 30k+ down and wee saw the shit job numbers.
Living here, I'm positive it'll be close. Heidi is a pretty popular person in the state and her likely opponent is a huge scumbag.
Horse Detective
Why the long case?
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This turned up on facebook lately...
Its hilarious, because the exact same thing is missing from all four of those points
science
Yep, I'm officially conceding, Poe's law won.This turned up on facebook lately...
I went to this site, and I think it's genuine, but honestly, I can't tell.
I mean
≈
The money worries me more than any other thing. Obama will handily win the debates. Mitt's not a good debater, and Obama is an excellent debater. People tuned out all the mud slinging thrown a Obama last time, you're not going to scare the public on an Obama presidency - you can only hope to make the public believe he's incompetent but he'll win in the debates.
People forget that Obama's weakness was on foreign policy and experience and the debates shored both those up instantly. Plus the EC votes are so far in Obama's favor that I don't see him losing because Mitt is such a horrible candidate by contrast - inspires no hope or faith or enthusiasm whatsoever from anyone except Mormons.
People forget that Obama's weakness was on foreign policy and experience and the debates shored both those up instantly. Plus the EC votes are so far in Obama's favor that I don't see him losing because Mitt is such a horrible candidate by contrast - inspires no hope or faith or enthusiasm whatsoever from anyone except Mormons.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
So with this week I feel like I should do another Podcast (I know its been a while). Anybody up for it?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Eh, not even a great debater could defend Obama's economic record. And if things stagnate throughout the summer it'll be even harder. Romney is no slouch, he's a smart guy who prepares meticulously. And unlike McCain, he's clearly presidential - there are no worries about age, temperament, general understanding of the economy, etc.
I think the debates will be close enough for things to sway wherever the economy is heading - ie the economy will still rule. If things pick up and Obama does well at the debates, he'll win. If things continue to be shitty and Romney capitalizes at the debates, he'll win.
I can't really see Romney denting Obama on foreign policy unless the administration bungles something in the coming months. Is he going to try his "you apologize for America" bullshit to Obama's face? Good luck with that.
SouthernDragon
Member
Please stop posting those images. They are rather stupid, contribute nothing to the discussion, and only serve to erect ridiculous and extreme strawmen for people to attack.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Oh calm down. Its slow as hell today, we're just having fun.
eBay Huckster
Member
Wait, you mean someone synthesized Kosmo into image form?
SteveWinwood
Member
If it comes to steam sure.
I enjoyed 2008 a lot and played it a bunch, but I'm trying to completely avoid Impulse nowadays and since Stardock has been friendly with steam since the buyout it's looking up for me on that front.
It's really not that political if that's what you're looking for. It's much too game-y in that sense. A very very simple and short civ style game where you only have influence and money to worry about. Still fun, and really cheap too.
I told myself I was gonna change my tune and not be all doom and gloom. I know a lot of the data still looks good for Obama. But I am starting to feel exactly the same way I did in 2010; lots of stuff that looks good on its own, but you can just tell something isn't right and won't end well. For example, Walker kind of seems like a prelude to something awful, just like Scott Brown. In any case, Europe and SuperPACs alone are a deadly combination that will no doubt be the thing that ends up pushing Obama way below where he needs to be on Election Day should he end up losing. It's just such a huge handicap he's going to have to overcome, even if we are to look at the situation before the dismal jobs report.
I'm actually kind of burned out on politics. I wish the GOP was sane and Washington wasn't a steaming pile of shit. I'd probably just stop paying attention to politics altogether.
And we still haven't even seen the Court rule on the mandate. This is a depressing month to be an Obama supporter/Democrat in general, and the terrifying thing is, it's just the beginning. :\
I also have to admit that not only am I pissed that SuperPACs are even legal like most everyone else here, but I honestly am having a hard time struggling with facing the reality that this is the result of 30+ years of uber-conservatives trolling the courts, and we have to deal with it. I honestly cannot believe that it's legal, and no matter what we do, we're helpless in terms of trying to stop it. It's an awful feeling. If something that extreme is permitted, what's next?
Kevitivity
Member
BOs a great "speaker" (when he's reciting a written speech). Debater, no so much.
The economy is going to be a big topic in the upcoming debates, which is going to put BO on the defensive big time.
Romney is a great debater, however he can come across of robotic and cold.
Obviously, my mind is made up, but I'm still looking forward to this election season and the debates!
I disagree that Romney is a great debater. He came off the Republican debates looking good (most of the time) only because he was extremely well-prepared, a trait that Obama happens to share. When Romney got 'politely pissed' at Perry, he wandered off script and blundered with that awful 10k bet, as if it would make his points stronger. If he were such a great debater, we would have known in 2008.
I buy everything Stardock puts out.
My revised map has Romney winning 279 - 259. It depends on him winning Wisconsin which depends on voter ID being enacted. If voter ID is not enacted, Obama wins Wisconsin and.....we have a 269-269 tie!!
This Holder testimony is unbelievable (video in the middle, only 2 minutes):
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/hol...st-and-furious-don-t-refer-operation-fast-and
It should be interesting to see Romney debate Obama - Romney has only been involved in Republican debates at this level, meaning he gets stuck trying to walk a fine line to not piss off the far right. His speeches directly targeting Obama have been really good and now that he's attacking Obama, he will have much more leeway to not get caught up in being wishy-washy (Romneycare aside).
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/hol...st-and-furious-don-t-refer-operation-fast-and
It should be interesting to see Romney debate Obama - Romney has only been involved in Republican debates at this level, meaning he gets stuck trying to walk a fine line to not piss off the far right. His speeches directly targeting Obama have been really good and now that he's attacking Obama, he will have much more leeway to not get caught up in being wishy-washy (Romneycare aside).
Well that, and his Republican opponents were a bunch of idiots/crazies.
ErasureAcer
Banned
That tie scenario isn't gonna happen. Neither is the Romney victory. Flip Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado to Obama. NC and Wisconsin might go to Romney. He'll get Indiana too. That's all he's flipping.
Shameless.
I have 2008 and I had a blast with it.
The best feature was the random maps and create-a-candidate.
Assuming the economy continues to slump, I'm thinking the electoral map will look a lot more like 2004 than 2008. I think Obama for sure keeps Ohio but for sure loses Iowa. States with Obama up by less than five right now will go to Romney (Nevada, Wisconsin (ID dependent), Colorado, Florida, Virginia). I think Obama keeps Ohio because the Bain bashing is playing really well there. Kaisch effect I guess?
To me if the election were tomorrow Obama obviously wins easily. But it's five months away. I'm starting to be swayed. Of course, almost all of the polls are head to head, and the ballots will not be. I think that come November 3rd, we will all be Gary Johnson fans!
I thought 2008 was a huge disappointment. I bought the first one in 04 and loved it, but they barely made any changes and actually made it more gamey in 2008. I'm guessing this new one will pretty much just be a reskin of 08. Oh well.
I never played 2004 so I must have had that for an advantage.
Yeah. In 2004 they tried to make an actual strategy game a la 1960: The Making of a President. I assume that bombed, and they ended up just making a novelty game out of it.
A PC version of the board game Campaign Manager 2008 is available to play for free on yucata.de. It's a much better game.
Captain Tuttle
Member
Obama press conference right now
Arrowgigantic
Member
LOL
ELEMENTAL WAS MISUNDERSTOOD GENIUS
Is it good?
I came so close to picking it up on Impulse before Gamestop purchased.
also:
Is it good?
I came so close to picking it up on Impulse before Gamestop purchased.
also:
All the money Walker raised would have been legal pre CU.
Elemental is ok. It launched completely broken though. I am totally biased though since I desperately wanted that game to be good so I've overlooked all the flaws. Wait on Fallen Enchantress at this point.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Obama's in trouble.
People don't care that Europe is going down. He can say as much as he wants that he sent a Jobs plan to congress and they didn't pass it, people won't care much.
People being the electorate that matters (not the 45% of people who are already voting for him)
People don't care that Europe is going down. He can say as much as he wants that he sent a Jobs plan to congress and they didn't pass it, people won't care much.
People being the electorate that matters (not the 45% of people who are already voting for him)
Who needs a jobs bill when we're doing just fine?
cartoon_soldier
Member
That's what Republicans think considering they don't even want the Fed to take Stimulus actions.
Am I the only one getting tired of Romney's favorite word to describe Obama being "failure"?
At this point, it could be turned into a drinking game. "Every time Romney says failure, take a shot. Drunk in 3 minutes!"
Also, how do you manage to call the economy a "moral" failure?
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-economy-moral-failure-tragic-185108291.html
If any policies are confusing, it's mainly because they are constantly stripped down to try to appease Republicans...
Bah. I need to stop reading the news. It making me overly frustrated.
At this point, it could be turned into a drinking game. "Every time Romney says failure, take a shot. Drunk in 3 minutes!"
Also, how do you manage to call the economy a "moral" failure?
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...g-economy-moral-failure-tragic-185108291.html
If any policies are confusing, it's mainly because they are constantly stripped down to try to appease Republicans...
Bah. I need to stop reading the news. It making me overly frustrated.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Is it good?
I came so close to picking it up on Impulse before Gamestop purchased.
also:
Yeah like eznark said. It was legal to have something like Citizens United for a recall election in the state prior to well Citizens United.
Though while that may give someone comfort it then makes you ask, how in the fuck was that a legal to begin with? Like many of the events in the situation.
So its like Democracy 2?
Walker only won because the election happened half a year after the recall initiative, had a boring (and shitty) candidate, and centered on unions, something most people don't give a shit about.
Obama's election really hangs on one thing at this point. Europe.
cartoon_soldier
Member
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/06/romneys-unethical-stench.html
This is why Obama is going to have a very hard time for re-election.
I agree, Romney will keep shouting things like, Obama's economy is a massive moral failure, or that Obama hasn't created any net jobs, or the Stimulus was a failure or that he has NO Jobs Plan. Media will repeat them, Summer economy slump continues. Romney will lead polls in July.
This is why Obama is going to have a very hard time for re-election.
I agree, Romney will keep shouting things like, Obama's economy is a massive moral failure, or that Obama hasn't created any net jobs, or the Stimulus was a failure or that he has NO Jobs Plan. Media will repeat them, Summer economy slump continues. Romney will lead polls in July.
McCain ran against a fictional Obama in 2008, too.
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