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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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G

gutter_trash

Banned
Liberals seriously need to wake up,

Harper is taking ownership of every major issue (weather you like or not) while Trudeau goes around on trips and doing photo-ops with the Inuit up north or wearing cowboy hats at barbecues in Alberta

now wtith this National Security issues, Trudeau goes ''derp, derp' we will wait and see the Bill before saying anything''

god damn, now Harper is perceived as the master of National Security and keeping us Safe because Trudeau can't formulate an opinion

Harper knows this!!!! and he is running with the Ball as Trudeau can't make up his mind and while Mulcair seems more concerned with defending the rights of badguys
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
gutter_trash said:
Harper knows this!!!! and he is running with the Ball as Trudeau can't make up his mind and while Mulcair seems more concerned with defending the rights of badguys
Click to expand...

Come on now, really? I know you're a party hack (and I say that as a card-carrying Liberal), but no need to mindlessly spout PMO talking points. Mulcair (and the Liberals, from what they've said) are concerned about the fact there's going to be a security bill that doesn't have any oversight mechanisms. Considering how much this government loves violating the Constitution -- as evidenced by the number of times the Supreme Court has had to slap down their laws -- I think that calling for government agencies like CSIS to be accountable is pretty reasonable.

As for why the Liberals aren't being more vocal: that's what Harper wants, to have him and Trudeau diametrically opposed on a vote-getting issue. I think the Liberal strategy is to embrace that the CPC is going to make the election all about Trudeau, and make it a vote on the leaders' personalities. That basically neutralizes the NDP, and turns it into a question of who voters like more personally: Trudeau or Harper. I don't totally agree with that -- Canadian history has shown that we tend to vote against PMs, rather than for them -- but it's pretty clear what they're trying to do.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
matthewwhatever said:
Come on now, really? I know you're a party hack (and I say that as a card-carrying Liberal), but no need to mindlessly spout PMO talking points. Mulcair (and the Liberals, from what they've said) are concerned about the fact there's going to be a security bill that doesn't have any oversight mechanisms. Considering how much this government loves violating the Constitution -- as evidenced by the number of times the Supreme Court has had to slap down their laws -- I think that calling for government agencies like CSIS to be accountable is pretty reasonable.

As for why the Liberals aren't being more vocal: that's what Harper wants, to have him and Trudeau diametrically opposed on a vote-getting issue. I think the Liberal strategy is to embrace that the CPC is going to make the election all about Trudeau, and make it a vote on the leaders' personalities. That basically neutralizes the NDP, and turns it into a question of who voters like more personally: Trudeau or Harper. I don't totally agree with that -- Canadian history has shown that we tend to vote against PMs, rather than for them -- but it's pretty clear what they're trying to do.
Click to expand...
that is not what I believe but that is the perception attached to Mulcair. For sure he does not want to side with the badguys but the perception is there impregnated by his but this but that.

Harper is shaping it his way and Mulcair is falling into the trap.

Trudeau knows he can fall into the trap, is unable to answer, unwilling to answer, so he is saying nothing giving him the perception that he is ''being way over his head'' like the stupid ads are pegging him.

If Liberals take a more NDPish stance on the matter, they lose in the middle.
If the Liberals agree with the Conservatives on the matter, then people say ''why not just go Conservative if they were right''.

Liberals are screwed both ways on this issue

Voters are stupid. Harper, Trudeau and Mulcair know that voters are stupid, so that is why they chose their words carefully
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
http://abacusdata.ca/federal-tories-and-liberals-in-a-dead-heat/
Voting Intention and Mood

We find a dead heat nationally with the Conservatives at 33%, the Liberals at 32% the NDP at 24%. In BC, the Conservatives have a narrow lead over the Liberals and the NDP. In Ontario, the Liberals and the Conservatives are neck and neck. In Quebec, the NDP enjoys a modest lead over the Liberals
- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/federal-tories-and-liberals-in-a-dead-heat/#sthash.GqICG6le.dpuf
Click to expand...

Slide2.png


latest Abacus poll
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Oh god. Our only hope is that the Liberals and NDP stop trying to stab each other in the back and just form the damn coalition already.
 
K

killer rin

Member
firehawk12 said:
Oh god. Our only hope is that the Liberals and NDP stop trying to stab each other in the back and just form the damn coalition already.
Click to expand...

You'd think they'd realize that the best chance they have of ever winning another election is to suck it up and work together for 4 hours while they force through a new electoral system.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
killer rin said:
You'd think they'd realize that the best chance they have of ever winning another election is to suck it up and work together for 4 hours while they force through a new electoral system.
Click to expand...

This isn't really true. A new electoral system removes the brass ring possibility for the liberals and probably means the NDP are permanently in second/third place, leaning towards third. It's actually extremely self-defeating to try to push through any system that has proportionality as its goal. The upside is that it also ends the possibility of further CPC majorities, but every tick up in the polls the LPC gets the less appealing the nuclear option gets.

Of course, only one of them is actually angling for anything like that, so I'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd work together on it.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
maharg said:
This isn't really true. A new electoral system removes the brass ring possibility for the liberals and probably means the NDP are permanently in second/third place, leaning towards third. It's actually extremely self-defeating to try to push through any system that has proportionality as its goal. The upside is that it also ends the possibility of further CPC majorities, but every tick up in the polls the LPC gets the less appealing the nuclear option gets.

Of course, only one of them is actually angling for anything like that, so I'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd work together on it.
Click to expand...

To be fair, it's been incumbents who have raised reform, so it's possible.

In the UK it happened because it was a condition of the Lib-Dems joining the Conservatives, so maybe the NDP could make it happen here if the Liberals are down and need them to get into power.

Although I guess it's a bit different since Harper poisoned the idea of minority governments and the defacto mode is to just give whoever has the most seats power (well, except for that one time, but that didn't work out at all).
 
O

Ondore

Member
Nationally, the Repubs have a slight lead with a bigger lead in California. Dems lead in New York and Florida is swinging for the Reform Party because Florida.
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
speculawyer said:
Can someone translate for us confused Americans?
Click to expand...
Voters are mostly undecided between the incumbent Conservatives and the centrist Liberals. In third there's the leftist NDP. Other parties are marginal. English-speaking Canada tends to vote to the right more than French-speaking Quebec where overall political leanings tend to be to the left of other provinces (kind of like Northern states in the US tend to vote Dem and Southern states tend to vote GOP)

That's Canadian politics in a nutshell, there's nothing special about this poll. All of the above have basically held true for the last 10 years.
 
A

Azih

Member
RevoDS said:
Voters are mostly undecided between the incumbent Conservatives and the centrist Liberals. In third there's the leftist NDP. Other parties are marginal. English-speaking Canada tends to vote to the right more than French-speaking Quebec where overall political leanings tend to be to the left of other provinces (kind of like Northern states in the US tend to vote Dem and Southern states tend to vote GOP)

That's Canadian politics in a nutshell, there's nothing special about this poll. All of the above have basically held true for the last 10 years.
Click to expand...

Well other than the NDP being strong in Quebec. This is brand new territory and this is the first election campaign where that will be a thing.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
speculawyer said:
Can someone translate for us confused Americans?
Click to expand...

The flags across the top are Canada (duh) , BC, Ontario and Quebec. Going down the side we have the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP (social democrats, if a bit too moderate right now for some people's tastes), Greens and Bloc Quebecois (separatists)
 
M

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
Azih said:
Well other than the NDP being strong in Quebec. This is brand new territory and this is the first election campaign where that will be a thing.
Click to expand...
Eh? The last federal election pretty much painted all of Québec orange. NDP completely wiped out the Bloc last time. If anything, it seems the NDP is slightly losing steam this time around, though probably not enough for the Bloc to make a come back.

2011 map:
2000px-Canada_2011_Federal_Election.svg.png
Click to expand...

vs

2008 map:
Canada_2008_Federal_Election.svg
Click to expand...
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Morrigan Stark said:
Eh? The last federal election pretty much painted all of Québec orange. NDP completely wiped out the Bloc last time. If anything, it seems the NDP is slightly losing steam this time around, though probably not enough for the Bloc to make a come back.

2011 map:


vs

2008 map:
Click to expand...

I think he meant we've never gone into an election where the NDP had such concentrated strength in a seat-rich province. They certainly weren't prior to 2011 -- that all just came out of nowhere, and even as it was happening the size of the wave was pretty shocking.

I wouldn't be surprised if their vote collapses just as quickly, though. Quebec has been fickle for a long time (remember the ADQ?), and if it looks like the Liberals are right on the cusp of a majority, I could see them abandoning the NDP en masse in favour of another Quebecois PM. It's also possible, I guess, that Mulcair suddenly takes off in the rest of Canada, but I think that's less likely -- their support isn't as concentrated anywhere else, Ontario won't be going NDP for a long time, and that poll that came out yesterday about people's attitudes towards the leaders' personalities showed that Mulcair doesn't have the personal popularity that Layton had that helped him win over so many people. (Conversely, it's probably good for the Liberals that Trudeau polled so well personally -- it shows that people generally like him, they just need to be convinced to move their votes to him.)
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
A property of FPTP parliamentary systems is that regional parties dramatically outperform nationally diffuse parties at the same vote share. This is perhaps the only real exception to Duverger's law that FPTP systems with otherwise tend towards two-party competition. If you aren't going to be a top-two competitor, you might as well go regional. The NDP isn't going to be a top-two party, so their sanest strategy in 2015 would be to go regional. Were I Tom Mulcair, I'd be focusing my campaign pretty exclusively on Fortress: Quebec.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
matthewwhatever said:
that poll that came out yesterday about people's attitudes towards the leaders' personalities showed that Mulcair doesn't have the personal popularity that Layton had that helped him win over so many people.
Click to expand...

I think it's important when looking at this to recognize that Layton took quite a few election cycles as leader to get to that kind of personal popularity. Mulcair hasn't yet waged even one as leader. But he seems to be quite a bear in campaign mode, judging by his previous non-federal campaigns (and remember, he was bassically the drop that started the orange wave in Quebec), as well as his campaign for the leadership itself.

Personally, I expect him to do a lot better once the campaign gets rolling than people think from midterm numbers. I kind of expect him to really throw down at the debate(s) in particular, and Layton proved that can be a powerful move in what are normally pretty humdrum events. Whether it'll be enough to tear down either Harper or Trudeau? That's anyone's guess. Also if Harper and Trudeau manage to impose limits on the number or format of the debates to his disadvantage.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Morrigan Stark said:
Eh? The last federal election pretty much painted all of Québec orange. NDP completely wiped out the Bloc last time. If anything, it seems the NDP is slightly losing steam this time around, though probably not enough for the Bloc to make a come back.

2011 map:


vs

2008 map:
Click to expand...
The nationalist vote shifted from Bloc to NDP; but those same voters who left Bloc for NDP are still nationalistic; Quebec City voters who lean Right voted NDP in 2011 but will soon return to the Conservatives in 2015.
Liberals will regain 90% of their lost Montreal area ridings.
Mulcair will lose Outremont due to the redraw of his riding that includes the Reddest portion of the other riding being joined in.
***

I just got robocalled by a pollster.
The most interesting question was about who I think will win in 2015 and if it would be a minority or majority.

I answered honesty that the Conservatives are going to win a minority.

Conservatives will be re-elected because of NDPers vote splitting

Quebecer's hyper-secularism stance gets married with Harper's anti-terror stance boosting Conservative support up in Quebec.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
maharg said:
I think it's important when looking at this to recognize that Layton took quite a few election cycles as leader to get to that kind of personal popularity. Mulcair hasn't yet waged even one as leader. But he seems to be quite a bear in campaign mode, judging by his previous non-federal campaigns (and remember, he was bassically the drop that started the orange wave in Quebec), as well as his campaign for the leadership itself.

Personally, I expect him to do a lot better once the campaign gets rolling than people think from midterm numbers. I kind of expect him to really throw down at the debate(s) in particular, and Layton proved that can be a powerful move in what are normally pretty humdrum events. Whether it'll be enough to tear down either Harper or Trudeau? That's anyone's guess. Also if Harper and Trudeau manage to impose limits on the number or format of the debates to his disadvantage.
Click to expand...

On the one hand, I wouldn't be shocked if he did well in debates; he's known for being the best performer in the House, so that should help him.

That said, the fact their vote totals have dropped in every by-election, including quite a few where he campaigned heavily, doesn't exactly suggest people like him more the more they get to know him. I know you can't really trust by-elections in general, but that has to be a little worrisome for Dippers. And if I remember correctly, his leadership campaign was pretty similar -- he won, but largely because of how people voted in advance. Those who saw him in person tended to go for all the other options.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
matthewwhatever said:
On the one hand, I wouldn't be shocked if he did well in debates; he's known for being the best performer in the House, so that should help him.

That said, the fact their vote totals have dropped in every by-election, including quite a few where he campaigned heavily, doesn't exactly suggest people like him more the more they get to know him. I know you can't really trust by-elections in general, but that has to be a little worrisome for Dippers. And if I remember correctly, his leadership campaign was pretty similar -- he won, but largely because of how people voted in advance. Those who saw him in person tended to go for all the other options.
Click to expand...

Oh I agree the byelection results are worrisome for them, or should be, but it's a very different kind of campaign even when the leader graces it with his presence. No matter what, the local candidate matters more in a byelection than in the general. They're definitely starting from a lower floor than they would have been before Trudeau came in.

Basically I'm just expecting them to go up rather than down once a real campaign starts. Their floor, going into the election, is also still probably going to be much higher than it's ever been for them. How much up and at whose expense? Not so clear.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
gutter_trash said:
the NDP will lose votes in Quebec if Mulcair votes against Harper's anti-terror bill.
The Quebec City region will go back to Torry Blue.
Click to expand...

Nah, Harper is detested here and all his anti-terror stuff is consistently seen as an electoral tactic. Also, he and is party are recognized as Christian fundamentalists. It's a non-issue here. If he gets votes it will be on taxes/income splitting and such. People are drowning in debt, so anything related to cutting taxes will be key.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I know no one cares about Australia here, but they are having ANOTHER leadership spill and Abbott is probably going to lose the PMship.

I'm not sure what I prefer more, the slow death of 10+ years of Conservative governments, or the drama of switching leaders and parties every 2 years.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
M

maharg

idspispopd
Zombie James said:
The fact that you can stack the Supreme Court with Harper picks (7 of 9) and still come out ahead on judgements like this gives me hope that Canada won't turn into the US anytime soon. Earlier this year they also upheld workers' right to strike, too.
Click to expand...

It'd be nice to think this is some kind of inherent feature of our judicial system, but really Harper's very constrained in what kinds of people he can appoint thanks to decades of Liberal domination of lower court appointments (the federal government appoints provincial high court justices as well as the federal high court). Give it some more time of CPC domination of the politic and we'll get some differing views in there.
 
E

explodet

Member
maharg said:
It'd be nice to think this is some kind of inherent feature of our judicial system, but really Harper's very constrained in what kinds of people he can appoint thanks to decades of Liberal domination of lower court appointments (the federal government appoints provincial high court justices as well as the federal high court).
Click to expand...
I believe it. Remember Marc Nadon? The other justices ruled that he didn't qualify as a Supreme Court Justice, leaving Harper with egg on his face.

The vote was 6-1.
 
S

Silexx

Member
maharg said:
It'd be nice to think this is some kind of inherent feature of our judicial system, but really Harper's very constrained in what kinds of people he can appoint thanks to decades of Liberal domination of lower court appointments (the federal government appoints provincial high court justices as well as the federal high court). Give it some more time of CPC domination of the politic and we'll get some differing views in there.
Click to expand...

Actually, you just kinda proved that it is an inherent feature.

Let's not forget the regional quota for appointing justices. This basically restricts the pool of candidates one can pick from, especially when you factor in the bilingual requirement.

Now, this is not without its own flaws and I agree that with enough time and commitment, a government could eventually 'stack the deck' ideologically but this makes it that much more difficult to do.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Silexx said:
Actually, you just kinda proved that it is an inherent feature.

Let's not forget the regional quota for appointing justices. This basically restricts the pool of candidates one can pick from, especially when you factor in the bilingual requirement.

Now, this is not without its own flaws and I agree that with enough time and commitment, a government could eventually 'stack the deck' ideologically but this makes it that much more difficult to do.
Click to expand...

Well yes, it's fundamental that the court doesn't change quickly, but what I was saying was that it's not fundamental to our courts to be independent of the executive or to lean towards ideals that don't mesh with Harper's.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Silexx said:
Actually, you just kinda proved that it is an inherent feature.

Let's not forget the regional quota for appointing justices. This basically restricts the pool of candidates one can pick from, especially when you factor in the bilingual requirement.

Now, this is not without its own flaws and I agree that with enough time and commitment, a government could eventually 'stack the deck' ideologically but this makes it that much more difficult to do.
Click to expand...
I like it that there so many requirement like that; it defends us from random Marc Nadon types of this world
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
gutter_trash said:
I like it that there so many requirement like that; it defends us from random Marc Nadon types of this world
Click to expand...

You like it right now because it aligns with your ideals. Will you still like it so much in 10 years when a more liberal government has to choose from Harper's lower court appointees?
 
S

Silexx

Member
maharg said:
You like it right now because it aligns with your ideals. Will you still like it so much in 10 years when a more liberal government has to choose from Harper's lower court appointees?
Click to expand...

Agreed. As well, limiting your pool of candidates with regional and linguistic quotas is far from ideal as it can shut the door for some very qualified candidates.

It's a bit conflicting as a French Canadian because as much as I want my language represented and maintained, I am also aware that there some judges out there that would be great justices but are instantly disqualified because they are uniligual.
 
B

Boogie

Member
explodet said:
I believe it. Remember Marc Nadon? The other justices ruled that he didn't qualify as a Supreme Court Justice, leaving Harper with egg on his face.

The vote was 6-1.
Click to expand...

And the court also just ruled the government can't unilaterally impose its own labour relations scheme to prevent the RCMP from having an independent association.

That was a 6-1 vote as well.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Eve Adams crossing the floor to join the Liberals. She may not be a great get -- you have to question the judgment of someone who dates Dimitri Soudas -- but she's still unloading on the CPC, calling them mean-spirited and bullies, and saying that anyone who voted for the PC Party doesn't belong with them.

How vitriolic does everyone think the CPC response will be? I'm thinking it won't quite be as misogynistic as their reaction to Stronach, but it'll still be pretty appalling.
 
G

gabbo

Member
matthewwhatever said:
Eve Adams crossing the floor to join the Liberals. She may not be a great get -- you have to question the judgment of someone who dates Dimitri Soudas -- but she's still unloading on the CPC, calling them mean-spirited and bullies, and saying that anyone who voted for the PC Party doesn't belong with them.

How vitriolic does everyone think the CPC response will be? I'm thinking it won't quite be as misogynistic as their reaction to Stronach, but it'll still be pretty appalling.
Click to expand...

Anything that will make it look like the Liberals just picked up trouble/garbage and/or not what the citizens in her riding voted for.
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
There was a cabinet reshuffle this morning as well:

Rob Nicholson to Foreign Affairs
Jason Kenny to DND
Poilievre to Employment + head of the NCC
 
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