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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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There is Postmedia taking its place.
matthewwhatever
Member
I don't think that Notley's success necessarily translates into NDP votes federally. As I said above, just last week she had to issue a statement saying she hadn't spoken to Mulcair in months, so I don't think her personal popularity means that there's about to be an orange wave across the prairies.
This, but with more flames:
This, but with more flames:
Yeah. Liberal party is going to be the go to party nationally
If the west votes NDP and the east votes Liberal, that would be perfect, a NDP/Liberal minority
Honestly though, if everything goes crazy and the west goes all orange, with Quebec probably going orange again, an NDP federal government could be in the realm of reality.
Gonzo The Great
Banned
The PC dynasty is finally over. Halle-fucking-lujah.
gutter_trash
Banned
congrats Alberta for dumping 44 years of PC rules.
Harper salty
any news about voter turnout?
Harper salty
any news about voter turnout?
ShinRPGamer
Member
Not yet. We likely won't know until later tonight at the earliest.
Perspicacity
Banned
It'd be about god damn time, Liberal party should have folded decades ago
After so much Conservative rule, if Trudeau can't make people happy I can see the NDP benefiting.
matthewwhatever
Member
If the west votes NDP and the east votes Liberal, that would be perfect, a NDP/Liberal minority
Honestly though, if everything goes crazy and the west goes all orange, with Quebec probably going orange again, an NDP federal government could be in the realm of reality.
I hope not. If my only options were the NDP on the one side and the Conservatives on the other, I have no idea how I'd vote. Probably not NDP, since I find several of their key policies utterly repellent, and I consider myself a pretty hardcore progressive/liberal person. I mean, I find Conservative policies just as terrible, but the NDP has quite a few core beliefs that would make them a total non-starter for me (and, presumably, for most Liberal voters). And I don't think I'm alone either -- 2011 showed how Ontario would go if it came down to a choice between the NDP and the Conservatives.
gutter_trash
Banned
Federally, I will never support a party that is against the Clarity Act
I wouldn't be so sure. I expect a very big last minute switch from one party to the other, whichever is in the best position to beat Harper. Considering the disdain for the Liberals in the west and in Québec outside of Montreal, and the fact that Mulcair is the most likely to kill it in the debate, the NDP might be the one benefiting.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Congrats, Alberta!
But now who will I make fun of as the Texas of Canada??
(I kid, I kid. Seriously, this is good news. I hope it'll translate somewhat into the federal election landscape. Orange crush FTW)
But now who will I make fun of as the Texas of Canada??
(I kid, I kid. Seriously, this is good news. I hope it'll translate somewhat into the federal election landscape. Orange crush FTW)
You can always trash the BC Libs.
matthewwhatever
Member
We'll always have...uh...rural BC? They're pretty insane in there. And last I saw, Saskatchewan still holds Brad Wall in higher regard than God. But neither of those places rolls off the tongue as well as Alberta.
gutter_trash
Banned
Jim Prentice talking live now...
will he go re-join the Federal? lol
will he go re-join the Federal? lol
gutter_trash
Banned
gotta hurry up for an available Federal riding, LOL
matthewwhatever
Member
Has anyone ever had such a swift fall from grace in Canadian history? I'm trying to think of anyone else who flamed out so quickly. Even Paul Martin won a minority in between punting out Chretien and losing to Harper.
gutter_trash
Banned
Chretien never got punted out, he ran for a 3rd term to piss off Paul Martin. Chretien did some final touches on Same Sex Marriage to proceed to the courts then retired.
remember Kim Campbell?
Perspicacity
Banned
Kim Campbell
matthewwhatever
Member
But Kim Campbell never stood a chance of winning. Same goes for John Turner in 1984. They were always seen as scapegoats -- no one seriously believed that the PCs or Liberals stood a chance of winning again. When Prentice was picked as leader back in the fall, the general feeling was that he was a safe choice, and guaranteed to keep them in power. Even five weeks ago, there was no reason to think this would be anything other than another PC win. By Canadian standards, this is a pretty unprecedented turnaround.
And yes, Chretien was pushed by Martin. Martin's people had effectively taken control of the Liberals so thoroughly that Chretien was given the choice of either stepping down or being embarrassed in a leadership vote -- and even after he chose to step down in 2003, they still pushed him to leave early, even though he'd apparently offered to take the fall for the sponsorship "scandal".
Avon Barksdale
Member
Did the AB NDP win in Bret "Hitman" Hart's riding?
gutter_trash
Banned
actually, Turner was supposed to be the chosen one but Mulroney created a coalition with Western Conservatives who hated Trudeau with Nationalist Quebec "separatists" who also hated Trudeau.
Ironically, Murloney going into bed with Quebec Nationalists screwed him over when Bouchard quit the PC and created the Bloc along with othe Quebec MPs who dumped the PC banner for the Bloc
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Listening to the new Premier's speech now
Funny moments:
- that "doing the math" quip, well done!
- "diversified economy", a jab at the oil industry?
- the boos from the crowd when she mentioned Harper, HAHAHAHA oh my <3
Funny moments:
- that "doing the math" quip, well done!
- "diversified economy", a jab at the oil industry?
- the boos from the crowd when she mentioned Harper, HAHAHAHA oh my <3
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Notley has a lot of work cut out for her. It's very difficult to govern well during a severe economic downturn, where a lot of things are off the table. Forcing the kinds of concessions required to generate revenues to act (or asking the public to sustain the kind of deficit required to act without generating revenues) is a real political test, even if with a majority no formal obstacles prevent her from acting. I hope she will focus on infrastructure and other government investments that can create a positive feedback loop.
Also, for the sake of our climate and planet, I hope that Alberta is able to diversify so that the oil industry's ecological footprint can actually come under scrutiny without the fear of economic apocalypse.
Also, for the sake of our climate and planet, I hope that Alberta is able to diversify so that the oil industry's ecological footprint can actually come under scrutiny without the fear of economic apocalypse.
No, it's accurate to say that they almost won. Without gaffes in the last week they would have almost certainly had a majority.
Sadly yes, it probably was. Uniting the right under a fragile merge of the PCs and WR would have been order of business number one if they could have unseated the NDP with it. Even if it didn't actually happen it still would have turned the NDP's first weeks in office into an absolute nightmare.
I say sadly because I'm very much in favour of proprep. I really hope the NDP and WR work together on it, and I don't think that's entirely out of the realm of possibility either. There may be just enough optimism in the two parties to make it happen, and afaik it's never been tried with multiparty support before in Canada.
Greg Clark is as happy as a clam tonight. They followed the Elizabeth May Third Time's The Charm approach (elect the leader) to breaking in and it worked. Now he has an office at the legislature and a voice at the table and almost certainly a place in the next debate. He won big time.
Swann.. well... yeah.
She will continue to distance herself from Mulcair somewhat, but what it really means is that the NDP now have a real organization in Alberta. That will be used, quietly if nothing else, to the benefit of the federal party in the fall. I also think this is a signal to the rest of Canada that maybe it's not so scary after all, and that could lead to federal seats elsewhere even if they only make modest gains in Alberta itself.
So my prediction, that I posted on FB yesterday, was: NDP/WR/PC/ALP/AP=59/20/5/2/1. Was pretty damn close. And I predicted 60% turnout and it came out to about 57%.
This reply to 308's last prediction, I think, really sums up the broader questions about why this has happened and the signs of things that let up to it, btw. I don't agree with everything in it, but I think the broad strokes are accurate enough. And I think it's right about things in Canada as a whole, as well. It's a fragile coalition that keeps the Conservative machine going. I think in the long run the federal Liberals scrambling at the centre is going to fuck them over, no less than it did here in Alberta. The 'centrist coalition' sounds good, but it's a failure mode.
Oh, and if you want to look at the event that kept this from really being a repeat of 2012? I think it was definitely that fucking boneheaded board room press conference. So stupid. It should go down in history as one of the worst political manoeuvres ever.
Federal thinking is different from provincial thinking, and Albertans wanting a change doesn't mean they're abandoning the PC party federally.
I think it does indicate that those Albertans who are tired of the PCs federally will be voting NDP. Just how much is yet to be determined. There is still quite a bit of skepticism about the NDP given their track record.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a PC minority next federal. The NDP and Liberals are going to split the left vote again even though it's indicating that NDP is becoming more and more the left choice for Canadians.
If the PCs remain in power, you can blame Trudeau.
matthewwhatever
Member
If the Liberals have more seats than the NDP -- which I'm betting they will after the next election -- then wouldn't it be the NDP's fault? Trudeau has a much, much higher ceiling than Mulcair, since him leading in the polls wouldn't cause people to flock to Harper out of fear.
That's not true at all. I'm looking at a list of polls from the 1984 election, and apart from a brief bump just before he assumed leadership (which Wikipedia says was based on bad polling, though they don't substantiate that) there's not any indication Turner was headed to victory. The first poll out after he took power (conducted by Southam/Carleton, in case you want to look it up) had the Liberals and PCs tied, and the next poll after that (from CTV) had the PCs nine points up. So no, no matter what insane narratives you've concocted in your head, John Turner wasn't going to win the 1984 election. He was also about 5-10 years past his best-before date by the time he became leader, so I don't think his situation is at all comparable to Prentice's.
Though thanks to this trip down memory lane, though, I did find someone who was almost as inept as Prentice: former Ontario premier Frank Miller. Like Prentice, he took the reigns of a PC Party that had been in power for decades. Like Prentice, he went into the election looking like he was going to cruise to victory. And like Prentice, he ran a thoroughly awful campaign. The main difference is that the PCs still won the most seats in the 1985 election, but immediately lost confidence when they convened the legislature because of a Liberal-NDP coalition under David Peterson. So...that's Jim Prentice's competition for "Biggest flameout ever". I still think Prentice's plummet was more spectacular, though.
1) Good job with the prediction -- no matter what the polls said, I was sure that a) they'd be as accurate as all the other lousy polling we've seen across the country in recent years, and b) Wildrose voters would abandon their party en masse, afraid of an NDP win. Obviously, neither of those things happen (and I'm a little embarrassed to admit that two Americans I work with both called a it).
2) Didn't know that about Greg Clark, so that's pretty cool. Alberta Party win in 2023!
3) Have Wildrose ever said they're in favour of changing the electoral system? I'm betting that they're going to look at the results and figure that getting rid of the PC Party is their ticket to winning the next election, rather than trying to introduce proportional representation.
That's not true at all. I'm looking at a list of polls from the 1984 election, and apart from a brief bump just before he assumed leadership (which Wikipedia says was based on bad polling, though they don't substantiate that) there's not any indication Turner was headed to victory. The first poll out after he took power (conducted by Southam/Carleton, in case you want to look it up) had the Liberals and PCs tied, and the next poll after that (from CTV) had the PCs nine points up. So no, no matter what insane narratives you've concocted in your head, John Turner wasn't going to win the 1984 election. He was also about 5-10 years past his best-before date by the time he became leader, so I don't think his situation is at all comparable to Prentice's.
Though thanks to this trip down memory lane, though, I did find someone who was almost as inept as Prentice: former Ontario premier Frank Miller. Like Prentice, he took the reigns of a PC Party that had been in power for decades. Like Prentice, he went into the election looking like he was going to cruise to victory. And like Prentice, he ran a thoroughly awful campaign. The main difference is that the PCs still won the most seats in the 1985 election, but immediately lost confidence when they convened the legislature because of a Liberal-NDP coalition under David Peterson. So...that's Jim Prentice's competition for "Biggest flameout ever". I still think Prentice's plummet was more spectacular, though.
1) Good job with the prediction -- no matter what the polls said, I was sure that a) they'd be as accurate as all the other lousy polling we've seen across the country in recent years, and b) Wildrose voters would abandon their party en masse, afraid of an NDP win. Obviously, neither of those things happen (and I'm a little embarrassed to admit that two Americans I work with both called a it).
2) Didn't know that about Greg Clark, so that's pretty cool. Alberta Party win in 2023!
3) Have Wildrose ever said they're in favour of changing the electoral system? I'm betting that they're going to look at the results and figure that getting rid of the PC Party is their ticket to winning the next election, rather than trying to introduce proportional representation.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Federal party is not PC it's just a C. The PC withered with the last withering breaths of Joe Clark struggling to keep the PC name alive. Peter McKay sold out the PC when they merged with the Reform/Canadian Alliance and McKay has been rewarded by Harper ever since with high profile portfolios.
The Wildrose are closer to Harper Conservatives/ Reform Party. And the Wildrose may just end up taking the place of the whole Right in Alberta by veering further Right
PC or C, potato potota
I highly doubt Wildrose will ever be stronger. They benefit this time because of the circumstances of this particular election where Albertans wanted change. Wildrose didn't have Calgary or Edmonton and they're not winning squat without the major cities. Wildrose is strictly the rural conservative option. Always has been, always will be. City conservatives do not support Wildrose, they're still PC.
Next Albertan election I completely expect Wildrose dropping back to being a few insignificant rural seats again.
I doubt it. The PCs, aside from this last veer right (orchestrated, no doubt, by the CPC in order to re-consolidate the split vote), have not been a right wing party since Ralph left. And insofar as they are anywhere on the spectrum, they were power brokers above all else and that's why they got slammed. I think they *could* stage a comeback, but the rats are going to flee now and they have no patience for 4 years in the woods. And there's no Justin Trudeau equivalent to pull them out of the wood chipper like the federal Liberals had when they were in the same boat.
I expect city centre-right voters to go Alberta Party or even a resurgence of the Liberal party next time. But a lot of orange is going to stick around too, depending on how well the NDP does in the interim.
And considering Alberta is mostly rural ridings, they are never insignificant. The WR will capitalize on this hard, especially after pulling themselves out of the wood chipper that was Smith's defection.
I did not see that coming. I'd basically heard the same grumbling as always. I presume this is really about the price of oil, with a smattering of campaign gaffes by the PCs.
I didn't really want to vote for the PC's because they shouldn't have called this election in the first place, but I don't really trust the NDP. Fortunately, David Swann's in my riding, so my choice was easy. I don't think I'd want a Liberal majority, but David Swann's a respectable guy and they deserve a seat.
I didn't really want to vote for the PC's because they shouldn't have called this election in the first place, but I don't really trust the NDP. Fortunately, David Swann's in my riding, so my choice was easy. I don't think I'd want a Liberal majority, but David Swann's a respectable guy and they deserve a seat.
I feel like the NDP's succes depends largely on the price if oil. If it goes back up they'll preside over a lot of economic improvment and it'll be easier for them to fiddle with the income tax to make it progressive ( and also raise it overall) and to introduce a PST. If they can take all this money and use it to succefully start to diversify the Alberta economy and build a really good social safety net, they might be there for a long time. I'd also hope they'd take building the Alberta Heritage Find a lot more seriously than the PC's.
If all goes well Alberta will come out a lot like Norway.
If all goes well Alberta will come out a lot like Norway.
No way in hell are they introducing a PST, imo. Maybe they should, but they know it's death even when popular. Bringing back a progressive tax will do a lot to close the holes left by tax slashing done in previous booms, and if oil goes up the royalty rate already goes up anyways (it's actually somewhat 'progressive') which will do a lot to improve the finances.
The NDP is as populist in nature as the Wildrose or the Reform party was. And populists *hate* nickle and dime taxes.
The NDP is as populist in nature as the Wildrose or the Reform party was. And populists *hate* nickle and dime taxes.
If the price of oil rises than oil companies will come back despite the (slightly) higher taxes the NDP will bring in. All the caterwauling from big corp CEOs is really about them making only 17 barrels of cash rather than 19 in a year. Notley will have revenue to work with and friendly mayors in Edmonton and Calgary to really get some valuable infrastructure built.
Wildrose have just capitalized on this as big as they can. There are not a lot more rural ridings for them to get.
Alberta is NOT mostly rural ridings. Calgary, Edmonton and their suburb ridings have 54 of 87 seats. These two major population centers have always decided Alberta politics. The other smaller cities can't be considered rural either.
The PC popular vote was still higher than Wildrose.
Wildrose goes from 17 to 21 seats. That's hardly a major breakthrough and there is no major shift to the other conservative choice. IMO Wildrose will continue to be just the rural conservative choice and not a major factor in Alberta politics.
Are you living in Alberta? I'm guessing no, because this comment is really far off base IMO.
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