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[matthewwhatever]

If the polls prove inaccurate again this election then I think it is time for the pollsters to really start looking at their methodology because clearly something is wrong.

I think part of the problem is that polling doesn't work so well in a system like ours. Public opinion polling is great where everyone is voting for the same party or the same candidate. If you're looking at a Westminster-style system, where an "election" is really a whole bunch of elections running concurrently, it doesn't work so well.

Look at that Forum Research poll I posted above as an example. It's from a sample of 801 voters. There are 87 ridings in Alberta, which means that, in the absolute best-case scenario, they around 9 people per riding -- probably less than that in some ridings and more than that in others, but that's the general number. There's no way a polling company can get an accurate read on a riding based on the responses from 9 voters.

Not only that, as far as we know it didn't differentiate between eligible voters and likely voters. Alberta averages just over 50% turnout, so if the poll was just looking at eligibles, they measured a lot of people who aren't planning on voting. Even assuming that people who responded to the poll may be slightly more likely to vote, that still drops the number even further, so you're looking at...what, 5-6 people per riding?

This isn't meant to pick on Forum Research at all -- I imagine it's the same way for all provincial polling in Canada. That doesn't excuse the lousy job pollsters have been doing for the last several years, but I think it explains why there's been so little disconnect between polling numbers and actual ones.

 

[gutter_trash]

are we gonna witness more floor corssings after the Alberta election is over?

If the NDP stays in minority territory, I can just it now surviving PC MPs joing the Wildrose MPs or cross the floor to the bigger right wing party

 

[lacinius]

Just for interest, this is the logo that has been officially selected for Canada's 150th, and was designed by a university student chosen out of 300. This site shows what some of the professional design firms in Canada were tinkering with, but were not considered: http://www.the150logo.ca/

 

[Sakura]

I think part of the problem is that polling doesn't work so well in a system like ours. Public opinion polling is great where everyone is voting for the same party or the same candidate. If you're looking at a Westminster-style system, where an "election" is really a whole bunch of elections running concurrently, it doesn't work so well.

Look at that Forum Research poll I posted above as an example. It's from a sample of 801 voters. There are 87 ridings in Alberta, which means that, in the absolute best-case scenario, they around 9 people per riding -- probably less than that in some ridings and more than that in others, but that's the general number. There's no way a polling company can get an accurate read on a riding based on the responses from 9 voters.

Not only that, as far as we know it didn't differentiate between eligible voters and likely voters. Alberta averages just over 50% turnout, so if the poll was just looking at eligibles, they measured a lot of people who aren't planning on voting. Even assuming that people who responded to the poll may be slightly more likely to vote, that still drops the number even further, so you're looking at...what, 5-6 people per riding?

This isn't meant to pick on Forum Research at all -- I imagine it's the same way for all provincial polling in Canada. That doesn't excuse the lousy job pollsters have been doing for the last several years, but I think it explains why there's been so little disconnect between polling numbers and actual ones.

You would think professional pollsters who have been doing this for years would know to account for the things you're saying.
2013 BC election. Opinion polls had a consistent 5 to 10 point lead for NDP for weeks before the election. Election day? Liberal majority. Like what the heck?
They need to do a better job of actually figuring out who is really going to vote, as you say.
I'm pretty sure they already account for the ridings.

 

[gutter_trash]

Wildrose and PC playing musical chair floor crossings

 

[Azih]

Wildrose and PC playing musical chair floor crossings

That's got to be depressing for both PC and Wildrose supporters. Will hurt their turnout at least to some degree.

 

[matthewwhatever]

You would think professional pollsters who have been doing this for years would know to account for the things you're saying.
2013 BC election. Opinion polls had a consistent 5 to 10 point lead for NDP for weeks before the election. Election day? Liberal majority. Like what the heck?
They need to do a better job of actually figuring out who is really going to vote, as you say.
I'm pretty sure they already account for the ridings.

You'd think so, but:

"The dirty little secret of the polling business . . . is that our ability to yield results accurately from samples that reflect the total population has probably never been worse in the 30 to 35 years that the discipline has been active in Canada."

That's from one of Canada's most established pollsters (Allan Gregg, who's been doing this stuff since Mulroney), and he said that in 2011. Ipsos-Reid also published an open letter around the same time that was equally critical of most Canadian polling. A little more recently, Calgary Grit (who now works for the Liberals as one of their data people) has written about the problems with provincial polling here and here. It'd be really nice if polling here was as accurate as it generally is in the US, but we're just nowhere near that level of sophistication because of our smaller population.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Exactly: keep in mind that representative sample sizes are the same for both Canada and the US but it would be proportionately 10 times harder to get responses in Canada; we also have far fewer universities and far less money in politics driving data collection. And American polling is also suffering from structural changes (decline of the home phone being one).

 

[CygnusXS]

Just for interest, this is the logo that has been officially selected for Canada's 150th, and was designed by a university student chosen out of 300. This site shows what some of the professional design firms in Canada were tinkering with, but were not considered: http://www.the150logo.ca/

A lot of the ones in that link are just terrible.

 

[gutter_trash]

That's got to be depressing for both PC and Wildrose supporters. Will hurt their turnout at least to some degree.

I think it will be even more depressing if both Wildrose and PC MLAs end up doing a massive floor crossings or a coalition to block an NDP minority.

NDP best win a majority

 

[maharg]

Just gonna leave that here. https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593600259663749120

 

[Sakura]

Just gonna leave that here. https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593600259663749120

This is too confusing to me.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Just gonna leave that here. https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593600259663749120

if i'm reading that right: EKOS has the Alberta NDP at damn near 40% and supported by pluralities of every federal party's supporters (except for the Tories' supporters, who are votesplitting up a storm)?

 

[Mr.Mike]

People talk about PC voters going Wildrose and vice-versa. But those few liberal voters there, is it likely they'll end up voting NDP or is there some big divide there?

Those few percentage points might mean a lot if one of the parties on the right collapses.

Or maybe the NDP just ends up winning urban ridings more completely. I don't know much about Alberta. ( I used to think it was pretty conservative, but here we are.)

 

[GSG Flash]

This is too confusing to me.

It's basically showing who people are going to vote for in the provincial elections based on who they support federally.

For example, 48% of the people who are going to vote for the Liberals in the federal elections are going to vote for the NDP in the provincial elections, 38% of federal Conservative voters are going to vote for Wild Rose in the provincial elections.

 

[maharg]

It's basically showing who people are going to vote for in the provincial elections based on who they support federally.

For example, 48% of the people who are going to vote for the Liberals in the federal elections are going to vote for the NDP in the provincial elections, 38% of federal Conservative voters are going to vote for Wild Rose in the provincial elections.

Well, the more interesting part is the bar at the bottom which is the total provincial vote intentions for the province. This is just one graph from the full report EKOS is releasing tomorrow.

Also, apparently several other polls will be coming out in the next couple of days.

 

[Sakura]

It's basically showing who people are going to vote for in the provincial elections based on who they support federally.

For example, 48% of the people who are going to vote for the Liberals in the federal elections are going to vote for the NDP in the provincial elections, 38% of federal Conservative voters are going to vote for Wild Rose in the provincial elections.

Yea that's what I figured. But how much of Alberta is that? For example, 45% of the people who will vote Green Party in the federal election (or say they will) are saying they will vote NDP in the provincial election. But how many people are going to vote Green Party in the first place? 1% of Alberta? 10%?

I assume the bottom numbers are the polls for the provincial election, which show a pretty strong lead for NDP. I wonder if Wildrose and PC would end up splitting the vote in such a way that they win barely any seats.

 

[Lexxism]

So, NL is going to increase their HST to 15% because of low revenue in oil? Oh wow.

 

[gutter_trash]

that green bar confused me lol

Wildorose uses Green. Green party uses Green, both do not think alike

 

[Pakkidis]

A lot of the ones in that link are just terrible.

Glad I'm not the only one who thought that.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Yea that's what I figured. But how much of Alberta is that? For example, 45% of the people who will vote Green Party in the federal election (or say they will) are saying they will vote NDP in the provincial election. But how many people are going to vote Green Party in the first place? 1% of Alberta? 10%?

I assume the bottom numbers are the polls for the provincial election, which show a pretty strong lead for NDP. I wonder if Wildrose and PC would end up splitting the vote in such a way that they win barely any seats.

Yeah, those top graphs are kind of useless. If the NDP is at something like 18% federally in Alberta, then getting nearly all those people to also vote NDP provincially doesn't mean a whole lot. The Liberals are in a stronger position there federally (around 30%, last I saw), but...yeah. The only graph that really matters is the Conservative one, since that's still more than 50% of the populatuon. Considering that the PC Party is still winning in that bracket, I think it's realistic to expect that the Wildrose vote might collapse and flee back to the PCs if Conservative voters are genuinely scared of an NDP government.

 

[Zombie James]

Just gonna leave that here. https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593600259663749120

Conservative vote splitting. Love it.

 

[Sakura]

So, NL is going to increase their HST to 15% because of low revenue in oil? Oh wow.

I wonder what the reaction will be. I can only imagine if they tried raising taxes by 2 percent in BC.

 

[maharg]

Yeah, those top graphs are kind of useless. If the NDP is at something like 18% federally in Alberta, then getting nearly all those people to also vote NDP provincially doesn't mean a whole lot. The Liberals are in a stronger position there federally (around 30%, last I saw), but...yeah. The only graph that really matters is the Conservative one, since that's still more than 50% of the populatuon. Considering that the PC Party is still winning in that bracket, I think it's realistic to expect that the Wildrose vote might collapse and flee back to the PCs if Conservative voters are genuinely scared of an NDP government.

I'm sure some will, but a lot will go the other way too. This is why directed strategic voting is futile.

Also, the sense of outage at the PCs in this provide right now is practically palpable. It'll be the apathetic people who bolster the PCs this time now than anything. And there's a flames playoff game on Tuesday, so...

 

[matthewwhatever]

Also, the sense of outage at the PCs in this provide right now is practically palpable. It'll be the apathetic people who bolster the PCs this time now than anything. And there's a flames playoff game on Tuesday, so...

...it may all come down to GOTV. Which means the PCs aren't dead yet, since I'm assuming they have a better one than the other parties. Or has being in power so long made them atrophy in that respect? (Honest question -- do they have the same organization as their federal counterparts, or has Wildrose taken that away from them?

 

[Azih]

Yeah being in power for a long time can have the opposite effect if you get complacent and start neglecting the grassroots. Remember the 'Big Red Machine' the Federal Liberals had?

 

[gutter_trash]

I'm sure some will, but a lot will go the other way too. This is why directed strategic voting is futile.

Also, the sense of outage at the PCs in this provide right now is practically palpable. It'll be the apathetic people who bolster the PCs this time now than anything. And there's a flames playoff game on Tuesday, so...

who benefits from a lower voter turnout over there?

 

[maharg]

who benefits from a lower voter turnout over there?

Usually the PCs. This time? I'm not really sure. I don't think anyone knows, what's going on right now is pretty uncharted territory for Alberta. I don't think the PCs, since establishing the dynasty, have ever polled as low as they are right now (there's one poll with them at 30%, but the rest all have them around 23-24%).

 

[DopeyFish]

Wow.... Interest rates are absolutely shit.

2 years ago I could get a GIC with annual yield of 3.8% on long term

Now it's down to 1.3%?! Wtf! That's worse than TFSA after taxes

I remember annual yields greater than 5% being a thing

 

[maharg]

 

[GSG Flash]

I wish Wild Rose ran for seats in the federal election, we could use some vote splitting on the right to even up the playing field.

 

[Mr.Mike]

Wow.... Interest rates are absolutely shit.

2 years ago I could get a GIC with annual yield of 3.8% on long term

Now it's down to 1.3%?! Wtf! That's worse than TFSA after taxes

I remember annual yields greater than 5% being a thing

If you're looking for growth you're not going to find it in savings accounts and GIC's. (You'll maybe keep up with inflation). Not that there aren't ways to put your money to work for you. My TFSA (75% equity / 25% bonds) is up 6.45% year-to-date.

But really this is a topic for the How to Invest For Retirment thread. Even if this isn't really a retirement thing.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=749978

 

[gutter_trash]

it's as if all the fear mongering is having the opposite affect

 

[CygnusXS]

I need this in my life.

 

[maharg]

And this is why I don't think the PCs can pull this one out of the fire.

Their response to a massive surge in a left wing party's vote? Get a bunch of executives to start literally whining about why everyone always wants them to pay taxes and threaten to stop donating to a children's hospital. Yeah, that'll teach 'em.

 

[firehawk12]

So if we have another 30 years of Harper, Alberta will finally vote for another party Federally as well? lol

 

[CygnusXS]

So, since 2009, the Alberta government took in $23.5bn less in resource extraction royalties than they had forecasted. That's a good sign that you need some new leadership, I think.

Apparently changes to the royalty formula for natural gas explains most of the loss:

 

[Stumpokapow]

Wow.... Interest rates are absolutely shit.

2 years ago I could get a GIC with annual yield of 3.8% on long term

Now it's down to 1.3%?! Wtf! That's worse than TFSA after taxes

I remember annual yields greater than 5% being a thing

As a Canadian living in the US there are legal limitations on how I can invest. Basically the best I can do right now is a GIC. Which really sucks.

 

[maharg]

As a Canadian living in the US there are legal limitations on how I can invest. Basically the best I can do right now is a GIC. Which really sucks.

Why are there limitations? I've never heard of this before.

 

[gutter_trash]

Trudeau does what Conservative don't, income tax cut for everybody below $250K

https://www.facebook.com/JustinPJTrudeau/videos/vb.21751825648/10153379137255649/?type=2&theater

 

[Mr.Mike]

Trudeau does what Conservative don't, income tax cut for everybody below $250K

https://www.facebook.com/JustinPJTrudeau/videos/vb.21751825648/10153379137255649/?type=2&theater

It's not a tax cut for everyone below 250k. It's a 1.5 percentage point reduction in the tax rate on the $45k to 90k tax bracket. And also the addition of a new tax bracket for income over 200k at 33%.

The Liberals don't seem any better than the Conservatives here. They're gonna give one of the richest groups in the world a tax break, while not actually doing anything to help the poor. It reminds me of a lot of the criticism of income splitting. Why not just lower the rate for the lowest tax bracket instead? (Politics, but still).

There is of course also the other thing in the video you didn't mention, the "Canada Child Benefit" which would replace three existing child benefits with up to $533 a month per child (non-taxable, but income tested). The liberal site has a bunch of examples but no formula as to how the CCB amount would be calculated.

https://www.liberal.ca/fairness/

 

[Stumpokapow]

Why are there limitations? I've never heard of this before.

I have no idea why there are limitations, but they're wide-ranging. They impacted both my own ability to open new investments and my ability to serve as a trustee for someone else opening investments. I asked RBC and ScotiaBank. At ScotiaBank a branch manager told me I couldn't do shit, at RBC an investment specialist told me I couldn't do shit. I was dealing with enough money that it would be worth their while to make things happen if they could. This makes me sound like I'm rich--reality is much more banal, it was an inheritance/estate scenario for a family member.

Here's an example of the limitations placed on TFSAs for non-residents:
http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/tfsa-celi/lgbl-eng.html
- No contribution room accrues
- New contributions up to the cap are taxes extensively

 

[maharg]

Probably the final 308 update for the Alberta election:

 

[gutter_trash]

It's not a tax cut for everyone below 250k. It's a 1.5 percentage point reduction in the tax rate on the $45k to 90k tax bracket. And also the addition of a new tax bracket for income over 200k at 33%.

The Liberals don't seem any better than the Conservatives here. They're gonna give one of the richest groups in the world a tax break, while not actually doing anything to help the poor. It reminds me of a lot of the criticism of income splitting. Why not just lower the rate for the lowest tax bracket instead? (Politics, but still).

There is of course also the other thing in the video you didn't mention, the "Canada Child Benefit" which would replace three existing child benefits with up to $533 a month per child (non-taxable, but income tested). The liberal site has a bunch of examples but no formula as to how the CCB amount would be calculated.

https://www.liberal.ca/fairness/

I disagree, an income tax cut for people between 40k to 80k is a tax cut for everyone without strings attached

you say it is the same as Harper, i disagree because Harper aims a certain group with conditions attached.

The Trudeau tax cut doesn't have strings attached

----

Probably the final 308 update for the Alberta election:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-2015-projections-ndp.html

it's gonna be interesting to compare both sites to see who gets a closer prediction

 

[explodet]

Wow.... Interest rates are absolutely shit.

2 years ago I could get a GIC with annual yield of 3.8% on long term

Now it's down to 1.3%?! Wtf! That's worse than TFSA after taxes

I remember annual yields greater than 5% being a thing

Yeah, I always thought clearing debt was hard. Turns out if you have the means, saving money is so much more complicated.

I'd hang out more in that Save for Retirement thread but this kind of stuff is confusing enough for me without throwing in all of the US rules too.

 

[Mr.Mike]

I disagree, an income tax cut for people between 40k to 80k is a tax cut for everyone without strings attached

you say it is the same as Harper, i disagree because Harper aims a certain group with conditions attached.

The Trudeau tax cut doesn't have strings attached

It is a clear cut tax cut, but still.

Average Canadian salary by province

Newfoundland and Labrador – $52,572
New Brunswick – $44,044
Nova Scotia – $42,992
Prince Edward Island – $41,184
Quebec – $44,621
Ontario – $49,088
Manitoba – $45,760
Saskatchewan -$51,792
Alberta – $60,476
British Columbia – $46,900


It's kinda only really helpful to roughly half the country (if anyone has median numbers, that'd be nice). Noticeably, the half that's more educated (demographics that lean liberal).

It is a tax cut I would probably benefit from when I'm done with school, but l lot's of people aren't really going to see any benefit. Besides, I'd rather have another $5,000 in TFSA contribution room than a few hundred dollars more a year.

Yeah, I always thought clearing debt was hard. Turns out if you have the means, saving money is so much more complicated.

I'd hang out more in that Save for Retirement thread but this kind of stuff is confusing enough for me without throwing in all of the US rules too.

You can go to http://canadiancouchpotato.com/ instead if you'd like things to be Canada specific. That's basically what you'd be pointed towards in the Retirement thread anyway.

 

[gutter_trash]

the TSFA comes into penalty in certain provinces. It's tax free federally but not provincially

 

[Zombie James]

The CRTC is going to be regulating Bell, Rogers, and Telus' wholesale roaming rates:

As such, the CRTC will regulate the rates that Bell, Rogers and Telus charge other companies for wholesale wireless roaming services. The CRTC has set interim rates for these services effective today, and is requiring the three companies to file final proposed rates by November 4, 2015.

And also making it easier for MVNO's to compete:

The CRTC is also taking action to reduce barriers, such as removing certain restrictions in wholesale roaming agreements, faced by mobile virtual network operators to give them more flexibility in their commercial negotiations with wireless companies. These operators can play a role in increasing choice and value for Canadians in the marketplace.

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=970879
http://www.crtc.gc.ca/eng/archive/2015/2015-177.htm

edit: Seems like there are a lot of potential MVNO's waiting for the opportunity:

Potential MVNOs, including Cogeco, Lycamobile, Orange, Raven, and Tucows, as well as the CCSA and CNOC, generally submitted that they were seeking wholesale access to the same technologies that wireless carriers use to provide service to their retail customers (i.e. GSM-based wholesale access services).

Potential MVNOs submitted that large wireless carriers have generally refused to negotiate MVNO arrangements, or, where they have been willing to negotiate, offer unreasonable rates and terms. Parties interested in entering the retail market as full MVNOs also submitted that wireless carriers will only consider providing wholesale access on a branded reseller basis.

About time, bring on Ting.

 

[ShinRPGamer]

So the Alberta provincial polls close in a couple of minutes. Are we keeping the discussion here or is someone making an OT about it?

 

[matthewwhatever]

We can chat about it here, unless anyone wants to start an OT.

I'm not even from Alberta, but I really want to see what happens. I'm guessing the polls will once again be shockingly off, and we'll end up with...I don't know, PC minority? Maybe a PC-Wildrose coalition? I just can't imagine the NDP pulling it off with so many rural ridings.