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[BladeWorker]

I think it's because Harper and Co. know that there are proposals for a world water bank for which Canada would be asked to contribute heavily to. By not being there, they can't be blamed for refusing the plan, and it would sound silly for a plan to be formulated that makes Canada a big contributor when Canada isn't even there to begin with, it would be seen as a hostile move even by Canadians, the equivalent of countries agreeing to take Canada's water. So by not being there, this plan can't even be formulated with Canada as part of it.

It's preemptive, they know what will be discussed.

It's a fair point, but one of the key maxims of diplomacy is that you don't win negotiations by avoiding the table.

Foresighted withdrawal or not, foreign policy can't be about taking your ball and going home when you no longer want to play. The game continues without you, and you can either be a part of it and shape the rules, or have the international community force them upon you when you regain your composure and decide to join again.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Anyone else watch the Liberal Leadership Showcase on Saturday? Even if it's basically a foregone conclusion at this point, I thought the contrast between Trudeau and everyone else was astonishing. None of the other five candidates even came close to him in terms of presentation. Coyne was too mousy, Cauchon and Murray were pretty forgettable, and Hall Findlay and McCrimmon were both hilariously terrible. I'd expected that from McCrimmon, but MHF went from 2nd on my ballot to 5th or 6th...that shot at Conservative voters (calling them all grumpy) was just stupid, since the Liberals need to win some Conservatives back if the want to govern again, and it fits in line with her pattern of saying dumb things without thinking. And on top of that, she just seems like she'd try and out-nasty Harper and Mulcair, which doesn't seem like a very good strategy for a third place party.

 

[diaspora]

MHF went from 2nd on my ballot to 5th or 6th...that shot at Conservative voters (calling them all grumpy) was just stupid, since the Liberals need to win some Conservatives back if the want to govern again

Some? A bit of an understatement.

 

[firehawk12]

The Harper war machine is all set and ready to kick in with the attack ads the very next day after the Liberal leadership results are announced on April 14... it's going to be a long two years until the next election. :\

Conservatives have attack ads set to launch against Justin Trudeau

Two empty shirt leaders in a row. The Liberals are basically pitching a fast ball right over the plate at this point.

 

[Azih]

I really really don't understand why some Canadians give Harper a pass on attack ads WHEN THERE ISN'T EVEN AN ELECTION HAPPENING.

God Damn, What the shit? It's obscene.

 

[firehawk12]

I really really don't understand why some Canadians give Harper a pass on attack ads WHEN THERE ISN'T EVEN AN ELECTION HAPPENING.

God Damn, What the shit? It's obscene.

They have the money to burn.

In an ideal world, political ads would be illegal until the start date of an election campaign, but we live in Canada. lol

 

[diaspora]

Two empty shirt leaders in a row. Canadians are basically pitching a fast ball right over the plate at this point.

Since majority of voters aren't members... fixed. The voting public is by far and large, pretty vapid, so they picked a dumb leader.

 

[BladeWorker]

They have the money to burn.

In an ideal world, political ads would be illegal until the start date of an election campaign, but we live in Canada. lol

Money to burn, define the guy before he defines himself, Canadians don't expect better of politics or politicians...take your pick.

Then again, I nearly lost my shit at the radio this morning hearing a CEAP ad that all but said that people should support a bill that hasn't yet passed through Parliament that would reimburse a substantial portion of selected skills training programs. Government advertising my ass, that was a political ad in sheep's clothing.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

Since majority of voters aren't members... fixed. The voting public is by far and large, pretty vapid, so they picked a dumb leader.

Because picking so called intellectual heavy-weights has worked out well for the party. I fail to see how Trudeau is such a vapid shell when compared to Ignatieff not to mention Harper.

 

[diaspora]

Because picking so called intellectual heavy-weights has worked out well for the party.

All leaders of the party, successful or not have been intellectuals, so yes, they traditionally have worked out well. King, Pearson, PET, Chretien, all were scholars and intellectuals in their own right. Dion and Ignatieff being shitty politicians doesn't invalidate the fact that intellectuals can win, and traditionally have.

I fail to see how Trudeau is such a vapid shell when compared to Ignatieff not to mention Harper.

Both Harper and the late Layton are brilliantly shrewd politicians in a way that makes Trudeau look like nothing. Layton was a fucking phD iirc.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

All leaders of the party, successful or not have been intellectuals, so yes, they traditionally have worked out well.

Both Harper and the late Layton are brilliantly shrewd politicians in a way that makes Trudeau look like nothing.

What has Trudeau done as the leader of party to deserve such an assessment? The man is not a simpleton or an extremist ideologue. He is passionate to a fault but I feel that at this point it's almost refreshing and I'll take it over calculated cynicism and sucking off the oil lobby. If Vic Toews and his ilk get shit-canned in the process then that is just a bonus.

 

[maharg]

Since majority of voters aren't members... fixed. The voting public is by far and large, pretty vapid, so they picked a dumb leader.

Majority of Canadians aren't voters in this leadership convention, so no not really fixed at all.

Just because the price of a restricted sort of 'membership' got lowered to $0 doesn't mean the electorate suddenly represents the broader culture.

Anyways I don't think attack ads will work quite so well against JT as they did against Ignatief and Dion. Both of those campaigns relied on a kind of xenophobia that probably won't stick with him. Not that they won't work at all, but obviously "He talks funny" and "He's lived elsewhere!" can't really work here. Trying to suggest Pierre Trudeau's son is in some way un-Canadian will be laughable, even by people who despise everything he stood for.

 

[diaspora]

Majority of Canadians aren't voters in this leadership convention, so no not really fixed at all.

Just because the price of a restricted sort of 'membership' got lowered to $0 doesn't mean the electorate suddenly represents the broader culture.

Majority electors aren't liberals, so yes, my fix is fine.

The man is not a simpleton or an extremist ideologue.

He's actually both. Not an extreme ideologue, but a soft christian conservative all the same judging by his voting history- one that supported the student boycotts.

I'll take it over calculated cynicism and sucking off the oil lobby.

Trudeau's supportive of oil corporations.

If Vic Toews and his ilk get shit-canned in the process then that is just a bonus.

Do I drink cyanide or arsenic?

 

[equippedwithtowel]

Do I drink cyanide or arsenic?

Both if you think that homophobic, adultering fuck should spend another day in a cabinet position.

 

[diaspora]

Both if you think that homophobic, adultering fuck should spend another day in a cabinet position.

A good chunk of former grit MPs aren't particularly gay friendly- and that's being generous. Though being adulterous is pretty irrelevant. Weird, but irrelevant.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

A good chunk of former grit MPs aren't particularly gay friendly- and that's being generous. Though being adulterous is pretty irrelevant. Weird, but irrelevant.

There's not being aggressivly gay friendly and there's going on record in support of an anti GSA movement of his constituency. When you father child with a young staffer it tends to reflect poorly on you. The mans opinions on crime and privacy are actively toxic however.

This isn't a matter of "well the liberal have had shitty MP's too" a large swath of Harper's inner circle are truly unfit for their positions, only mitigated somewhat by Harper's high level of involvement.

 

[diaspora]

There's not being aggressivly gay friendly and there's going on record in support of an anti GSA movement of his constituency. When you father child with a young staffer it tends to reflect poorly on you. The mans opinions on crime and privacy are actively toxic however.

This isn't a matter of "well the liberal have had shitty MP's too" a large swath of Harper's inner circle are truly unfit for their positions, only mitigated somewhat by Harper's high level of involvement.

The tory government has so many problems with how they can't seem to grasp effective state finance, but if there's one thing they're doing well, and doing right, it's pushing forward gay rights. That aside, are we really going to pretend that Director's Law doesn't have all the parties by the balls and that no matter who's in power, it's just going to be the status quo?

 

[Stumpokapow]

They have the money to burn.

In an ideal world, political ads would be illegal until the start date of an election campaign, but we live in Canada. lol

As if the constant soothing reminders of Canada's Economic Action Plan would not circumvent such a ban

 

[diaspora]

As if the constant soothing reminders of Canada's Economic Action Plan would not circumvent such a ban

We're almost a decade behind the tories and dippers, so really, its not like it even matters.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

The tory government has so many problems with how they can't seem to grasp effective state finance, but if there's one thing they're doing well, and doing right, it's pushing forward gay rights. That aside, are we really going to pretend that Director's Law doesn't have all the parties by the balls and that no matter who's in power, it's just going to be the status quo?

Well weed might be legal and my privacy might be more agressively enforced. I can live with that.

 

[diaspora]

Well weed might be legal and my privacy might be more agressively enforced. I can live with that.

He doesn't believe in the former- but whether or not he follows through will be contingent on whether or not the party members are willing to rip him to shreds if he doesn't; something I think only a few members have the spine to do. Honestly, despite the membership being in favour of it, caucus being consistently against based on their voting patterns shouldn't imspite hope. The latter won't change.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

He doesn't believe in the former- but whether or not he follows through will be contingent on whether or not the party members are willing to rip him to shreds if he doesn't; something I think only a few members have the spine to do. Honestly, despite the membership being in favour of it, caucus being consistently against based on their voting patterns shouldn't imspite hope. The latter won't change.

Director's Law brah.

I love being in the unfairly privileged middle class

(For the record I think directors law is a meaningless axiom that isn't more accurate then tyranny of the majority, also Neo-cons have been tearing it to shreds in the last decade.)

 

[diaspora]

Director's Law brah.

I love being in the unfairly privileged middle class

(For the record I think directors law is a meaningless axiom that isn't more accurate then tyranny of the majority, also Neo-cons have been tearing it to shreds in the last decade.)

Neo-cons opinions are a waste of everyone's time.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

Neo-cons opinions are a waste of everyone's time.

Opinions and actions are two very different things.

 

[diaspora]

Opinions and actions are two very different things.

What? Everything the tories have been doing since '06 is emblematic of it.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I see someone is already pre-emptively bitter about Joyce Murray not winning. Shocking that there's overlap between her supporters and the Fair Vote Canada types...

All leaders of the party, successful or not have been intellectuals, so yes, they traditionally have worked out well. King, Pearson, PET, Chretien, all were scholars and intellectuals in their own right. Dion and Ignatieff being shitty politicians doesn't invalidate the fact that intellectuals can win, and traditionally have.

Both Harper and the late Layton are brilliantly shrewd politicians in a way that makes Trudeau look like nothing. Layton was a fucking phD iirc.

Chretien was a scholar? The man was a career politician who was successful because he knew how to connect with people and manage a political party. Harper is the same, except minus the "connecting with people" part and with a massive emphasis on managing the party. Layton had a brief foray in academics, but if you look at his bio, it was pretty clearly all with an eye to political life one day.

In other words, none of the successful politicians of the last twenty years were that "intellectual"; all of them knew how to run campaigns. I have no reason to doubt that Justin Trudeau will carry on in that tradition, and I think he'll excel because, more than any of the other candidates for the Liberal leadership or the other party leaders, he knows how to connect with a significant chunk of the population. Sniffing that he's an intellectual lightweight and complaining about the stupidity and vapidity of the electorate is just...sad, especially if you're a card-carrying Liberal. The Party was the most successful one in Western politics for a century because they rejected your attitude, at least in their campaigns.

 

[gutter_trash]

I said it before and I will say it again, Joyce Murray would have destroyed the Liberal party to non-existance and would have force the centrist and center-right vote guaranteed to the Conservatives holding power almighty for 10 more years.

The Liberal party is not a lefty-left party. It is a centrist party which has center-right economic policies while defending social liberties and social programs on the center-left. A balanced party.

Who else balanced straight consecutive surpluses? Chretien and Martin, that's who

 

[diaspora]

I see someone is already pre-emptively bitter about Joyce Murray not winning. Shocking that there's overlap between her supporters and the Fair Vote Canada types...

I loathe Murray more than anyone else in this race. Co-operation plans are for chumps.

Chretien was a scholar? The man was a career politician who was successful because he knew how to connect with people and manage a political party. Harper is the same, except minus the "connecting with people" part and with a massive emphasis on managing the party. Layton had a brief foray in academics, but if you look at his bio, it was pretty clearly all with an eye to political life one day.

Chretien was a man who knew the Canadian government inside and out with a liberal philosophy he employed for much of his political career. Layton was a phD and a professor, being a politician for a while doesn't get around that.

Sniffing that he's an intellectual lightweight and complaining about the stupidity and vapidity of the electorate is just...sad

But accurate!

especially if you're a card-carrying Liberal. The Party was the most successful one in Western politics for a century because they rejected your attitude, at least in their campaigns.

It's been successful because of a combination of giving intellectuals a populist flair rather than being bullshit inside AND out.

I said it before and I will say it again, Joyce Murray would have destroyed the Liberal party to non-existance

I agree entirely.

and would have force the centrist and center-right vote guaranteed to the Conservatives holding power almighty for 10 more years.

This is likely to happen regardless though.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

This is likely to happen regardless though.

Eh, maybe.
The 905 is a fickle mistress.

 

[diaspora]

The importance of the next leader isn't about winning government since it's unlikely that it's going to happen, but rather to make it government even feasible for the next one. 2020s ahoy.

 

[HEALTH_DISCO]

But i voted for the Bloc Quebecois...

 

[firehawk12]

As if the constant soothing reminders of Canada's Economic Action Plan would not circumvent such a ban

You're telling me that the Government of Canada isn't the best thing ever?!

Eh, maybe.
The 905 is a fickle mistress.

I feel like the Liberal brand has already been soured by McGuinty though. But who knows. Clearly Ontario and Quebec are really the only places that Trudeau could try to build a base. Quebec is a given, since there's no way the NDP hold all those seats, but I don't see how they would move opinion in Ontario. Hell, they would have to first convince Torontonians to not vote for the NDP next time around... which presumably also means taking out Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth among other less locked seats.

I'm just not even sure how they would tackle the 416... the 905 seems like an insurmountable obstacle at the moment.

The importance of the next leader isn't about winning government since it's unlikely that it's going to happen, but rather to make it government even feasible for the next one. 2020s ahoy.

Yeah, it's really about trying to make the NDP look like a protest party again and spin the narrative that if you hate the Conservatives, you should vote Liberal, because no one else matters.

Mulcair being Mulcair probably helps the Liberals in that regard.

 

[diaspora]

But i voted for the Bloc Quebecois...

...

 

[diaspora]

I feel like the Liberal brand has already been soured by McGuinty though. But who knows.

Wynne is flushing that out it seems.

Clearly Ontario and Quebec are really the only places that Trudeau could try to build a base. Quebec is a given, since there's no way the NDP hold all those seats, but I don't see how they would move opinion in Ontario.

... 0.44% of Ontarians registered to vote versus 0.18% of Quebecers. Though fwiw, word from the hill is that the NDP's not as healthy as it'd like to be, or at least compared to how it was immediately post-NDPldr.

 

[equippedwithtowel]

You're telling me that the Government of Canada isn't the best thing ever?!


I feel like the Liberal brand has already been soured by McGuinty though. But who knows. Clearly Ontario and Quebec are really the only places that Trudeau could try to build a base. Quebec is a given, since there's no way the NDP hold all those seats, but I don't see how they would move opinion in Ontario. Hell, they would have to first convince Torontonians to not vote for the NDP next time around... which presumably also means taking out Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth among other less locked seats.

I'm just not even sure how they would tackle the 416... the 905 seems like an insurmountable obstacle at the moment.

Two years is a lot of time for either
A. Wynne to turn things around or
B. Hudak to call an election and cause more self inflicted damage

On the NPD issue Mulclair won't be able to drive turnout in Toronto the same a way a hypothetically well performing Trudeau could. It's not like there isn't room for a higher turnout then in 2011 in the province if the youth vote finally shows up.

It's not particularly likely, but if I've learned one thing about Ontario politics it's that no one is really a sure thing for too long.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I feel like the Liberal brand has already been soured by McGuinty though. But who knows. Clearly Ontario and Quebec are really the only places that Trudeau could try to build a base. Quebec is a given, since there's no way the NDP hold all those seats, but I don't see how they would move opinion in Ontario. Hell, they would have to first convince Torontonians to not vote for the NDP next time around... which presumably also means taking out Trinity-Spadina and Toronto-Danforth among other less locked seats.

Despite the way all federal parties try to tie federal candidates to failed or unpopular provincial governments (sometimes made easier by the fact that the federal candidates were in fact in charge of those provincial governments), the average voter still has considers the identification between provincial and federal parties fairly weak.

In fact in many provinces one or more parties has no real affiliation federally at all; most of the provincial Tory parties still retain the moniker Progressive Conservative and have limited formal ties to the CPC... the Atlantic Liberals are directly connected to the federal parties, the Ontario Liberals have no formal connections and not a lot of overlapping power figures, in Quebec the only meaningful relationship is between the PQ and the BQ.

I do think Harper's team will discuss "The failed McGuinty legacy" or whatever when campaigning in Ontario, but I think Trudeau will correctly distance himself by saying something like "Although Stephen Harper would have you forget that many of his closest friends come directly from the Mike Harris era of cutting social services and leaving a disasterous legacy of poverty, the Federal Liberal party has no direct relationship with any provincial political party."

On the NPD issue Mulclair won't be able to drive turnout in Toronto the same a way a hypothetically well performing Trudeau could. It's not like there isn't room for a higher turnout then in 2011 in the province if the youth vote finally shows up.

I don't disagree with either of these statements, but in politics if your plan is to bet on reshaping the electorate rather than winning the electorate as it is shaped today, you're in for an uphill battle. I can't imagine voter turnout will continue to decline much more but if I were running regressions to project stuff, I wouldn't incorporate an "enthusiasm bump" for voter turnout until it's made very obvious in the polls rather than just in people's hearts

 

[diaspora]

Despite the way all federal parties try to tie federal candidates to failed or unpopular provincial governments (sometimes made easier by the fact that the federal candidates were in fact in charge of those provincial governments), the average voter still has considers the identification between provincial and federal parties fairly weak.

In fact in many provinces one or more parties has no real affiliation federally at all; most of the provincial Tory parties still retain the moniker Progressive Conservative and have limited formal ties to the CPC... the Atlantic Liberals are directly connected to the federal parties, the Ontario Liberals have no formal connections and not a lot of overlapping power figures, in Quebec the only meaningful relationship is between the PQ and the BQ.

I do think Harper's team will discuss "The failed McGuinty legacy" or whatever when campaigning in Ontario, but I think Trudeau will correctly distance himself by saying something like "Although Stephen Harper would have you forget that many of his closest friends come directly from the Mike Harris era of cutting social services and leaving a disasterous legacy of poverty, the Federal Liberal party has no direct relationship with any provincial political party."

You overestimate us =P

 

[firehawk12]

Despite the way all federal parties try to tie federal candidates to failed or unpopular provincial governments (sometimes made easier by the fact that the federal candidates were in fact in charge of those provincial governments), the average voter still has considers the identification between provincial and federal parties fairly weak.

In fact in many provinces one or more parties has no real affiliation federally at all; most of the provincial Tory parties still retain the moniker Progressive Conservative and have limited formal ties to the CPC... the Atlantic Liberals are directly connected to the federal parties, the Ontario Liberals have no formal connections and not a lot of overlapping power figures, in Quebec the only meaningful relationship is between the PQ and the BQ.

Yeah, that's true enough. It's not like in the US where even the Sheriff has to identify as Democrat or Republican during an election. I don't even know... is McGuinty's brother still around as an MP?

I do think Harper's team will discuss "The failed McGuinty legacy" or whatever when campaigning in Ontario, but I think Trudeau will correctly distance himself by saying something like "Although Stephen Harper would have you forget that many of his closest friends come directly from the Mike Harris era of cutting social services and leaving a disasterous legacy of poverty, the Federal Liberal party has no direct relationship with any provincial political party."

I think the sad reality is that a lot of 905ers remember the Harris-era with fondness and nostalgia.

Two years is a lot of time for either
A. Wynne to turn things around or
B. Hudak to call an election and cause more self inflicted damage

On the NPD issue Mulclair won't be able to drive turnout in Toronto the same a way a hypothetically well performing Trudeau could. It's not like there isn't room for a higher turnout then in 2011 in the province if the youth vote finally shows up.

It's not particularly likely, but if I've learned one thing about Ontario politics it's that no one is really a sure thing for too long.

Wynne is flushing that out it seems.

Yeah, the combination of Wynne trying to move away from the past and Hudak just being Hudak is probably a good thing for the Liberals at least.

Though, yeah, trying to pin down Ontario too much is a fool's game. Maybe the NDP could form government again here!

... 0.44% of Ontarians registered to vote versus 0.18% of Quebecers. Though fwiw, word from the hill is that the NDP's not as healthy as it'd like to be, or at least compared to how it was immediately post-NDPldr.

Those numbers... oh my. lol

 

[equippedwithtowel]

I don't disagree with either of these statements, but in politics if your plan is to bet on reshaping the electorate rather than winning the electorate as it is shaped today, you're in for an uphill battle. I can't imagine voter turnout will continue to decline much more but if I were running regressions to project stuff, I wouldn't incorporate an "enthusiasm bump" for voter turnout until it's made very obvious in the polls rather than just in people's hearts

I live in hope. In all honestly the largest bump (if any) might be from women 24-48 à la Nixon/Kennedy when it actually comes down to debates.

 

[diaspora]

Yeah, the combination of Wynne trying to move away from the past and Hudak just being Hudak is probably a good thing for the Liberals at least

Nobody mentioning Horwath says everything doesn't it?

 

[firehawk12]

Nobody mentioning Horwath says everything doesn't it?

The orange in me is dying a little. lol

 

[equippedwithtowel]

I don't even know... is McGuinty's brother still around as an MP?l

Yep
Volunteered for him in 2011. I wouldn't say he's cut from a better cloth then his brother since he never got the chance to prove it, but he's obviously good in my books and fairly well liked locally afaik.

 

[diaspora]

Scarborough-RR folks have been telling me that McCallum's going to be facing some competition for the nomination in Markham come 2015 (or 2014 depending on how the tories move).

 

[gabbo]

Nobody mentioning Horwath says everything doesn't it?

She'll be getting more face-time if she continues to broker deals that keep Wynne and the Liberals alive, while Hudak proselytizes Mike Harris and publishes white papers no one gives a shit about.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Angus Reid's quarterly premier approval rankings:

Brad Wall (SK): +36(!) (64% approve, 28% disapprove)
Kathleen Wynne (ON): -1 (36% approve, 37% disapprove)
David Alward (NB): -9 (41% approve, 50% disapprove)
Greg Selinger (MB): -11 (38% approve, 49% disapprove)
Pauline Marois (QC): -29 (33% approve, 62% disapprove)
Darrell Dexter (NS): -32 (30% approve, 62% disapprove)
Allison Redford (AB): -37 (29% approve, 66% disapprove)
Christy Clark (BC): -42 (25% approve, 67% disapprove)
Kathy Dunderdale (NL): -48 (25% approve, 73% disapprove)

(PEI/Robert Ghiz not included for some reason.)

Crazy to see how loathed so many premiers are.

 

[diaspora]

Huh, Christy's improving.

 

[gutter_trash]

Angus Reid's quarterly premier approval rankings:

Brad Wall (SK): +36(!) (64% approve, 28% disapprove)
Kathleen Wynne (ON): -1 (36% approve, 37% disapprove)
David Alward (NB): -9 (41% approve, 50% disapprove)
Greg Selinger (MB): -11 (38% approve, 49% disapprove)
Pauline Marois (QC): -29 (33% approve, 62% disapprove)
Darrell Dexter (NS): -32 (30% approve, 62% disapprove)
Allison Redford (AB): -37 (29% approve, 66% disapprove)
Christy Clark (BC): -42 (25% approve, 67% disapprove)
Kathy Dunderdale (NL): -48 (25% approve, 73% disapprove)

(PEI/Robert Ghiz not included for some reason.)

Crazy to see how loathed so many premiers are.

In provinces with a strong 3rd place party, it often enables vote splitting causing an unlikable to get in.

 

[diaspora]

In provinces with a strong 3rd place party, it often enables vote splitting causing an unlikable to get in.

BC?

 

[gutter_trash]

BC?

Maybe not BC, that province continuously toggles between BC Liberals an NDP everytime to electorate gets dissatisfied with their gov

 

[LakeEarth]

I really really don't understand why some Canadians give Harper a pass on attack ads WHEN THERE ISN'T EVEN AN ELECTION HAPPENING.

God Damn, What the shit? It's obscene.

Similarly, I love those "Canada's economic action plan is working!" commercials. If it was working, why do you need these fucking commercials?