And I'll go back to ignoring your near-truther level nonsense I guess.
My friends and I toyed around with the idea of taking shots every time he mentioned middle-class, but decided it was too dangerous of a game.
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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And I'll go back to ignoring your near-truther level nonsense I guess.
My friends and I toyed around with the idea of taking shots every time he mentioned middle-class, but decided it was too dangerous of a game.
equippedwithtowel
Member
For the record I have high hopes for Trudeau, and think he gets shit on unfairly to a certain degree.
It's the optimist in me.
It's the optimist in me.
I was reading this (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/14/justin-trudeau-wins-federal-liberal-leadership-race/) when I saw a very powerful comment:
"They called it a joke when Ralph Klein first ran for mayor of Calgary - but he won. They called is a joke again when he went into provincial politics and became a senior cabinet minister - yet he acquitted himself well and even earned a reputation as being on of the best environmental ministers the province had had to that date. Still he wasn't taken seriously when he ran for party leadership but he won that battle too and then beat a resurgent Liberal party which was certain it was about to attain power in Alberta after 20 years of PC government - but Klein surprised again and won the premiership. Justin Trudeau still has much to prove and accomplish before he becomes a serious candidate for the top job but his detractors have got to start admitting that he he has surprised often enough to date and they shouldn't imagine that falling on his face is any certainty for the future."
If anything, him being shit on constantly reveals the weakness of his opponents. Dismissing Trudeau either makes them a) drop their guard, b) make him fight harder, or c) both.
Painting Trudeau as a neophyte will almost certainly backfire when Trudeau surprises them on the campaign trail.
"They called it a joke when Ralph Klein first ran for mayor of Calgary - but he won. They called is a joke again when he went into provincial politics and became a senior cabinet minister - yet he acquitted himself well and even earned a reputation as being on of the best environmental ministers the province had had to that date. Still he wasn't taken seriously when he ran for party leadership but he won that battle too and then beat a resurgent Liberal party which was certain it was about to attain power in Alberta after 20 years of PC government - but Klein surprised again and won the premiership. Justin Trudeau still has much to prove and accomplish before he becomes a serious candidate for the top job but his detractors have got to start admitting that he he has surprised often enough to date and they shouldn't imagine that falling on his face is any certainty for the future."
If anything, him being shit on constantly reveals the weakness of his opponents. Dismissing Trudeau either makes them a) drop their guard, b) make him fight harder, or c) both.
Painting Trudeau as a neophyte will almost certainly backfire when Trudeau surprises them on the campaign trail.
Nothing nice ever happens. If anything, I'm growing increasingly weary because Trudeau doesn't get shit on enough internally. Too many people I know actually believe their rhetoric which blows my mind to a certain degree. That is, I don't expect people to be walking around and calling him scum, but toning down the PM fantasies would be nice.
It's worth noting that I don't think Trudeau is a bad candidate or that he ran a bad campaign or that he doesn't have at least some shot of winning significantly enhanced support for the Liberals in 2015 (hell, I think he's got as good a shot or better than Layton had of actually winning). I just think that the Liberals have a shallow bench and that this was a foregone conclusion the moment he entered and Rae made it official he wasn't going to reneg on his deal.
And I was completely right that no one would even come close to him on the balloting, which was a bolder prediction than most were making at the time before Garneau dropped out (which he did because he knew he couldn't win, just like most other candidates who weren't effectively one-issue sidelines).
If all that makes me a 'near truther', than so be it. You'll never find me using a personal pronoun to describe a political party, though, that's for damn sure.
Bringing "rigged" into it at all does. So does coronation since both implies a coordinated effort by the party itself to push for victory for one candidate. Incidentally, it'd be stupid not to use a personal pronoun given the level intimacy in the fuckin organization.
equippedwithtowel
Member
Exactly.
I really doubt that Harper can pull a threepeat on getting negative spin to stick out of the gate. If Trudeau actually shows up all it does it make Harper look petty if he harps on about the name.
The experience issue probably doesn't have that much shelf life either; all it really does is create lowered expectations for him, anyone with half a brain and a good support staff can surpass those by election time.
I'd definitely agree that the candidates offered aside from Garneau and MFH were rather lacklustre. However, that's to be expected given the evisceration during the previous election.
That being said, I don't think it was a foregone conclusion when Trudeau entered the race. If we had Trudeau circa 2011/2012, this wouldn't even be a discussion. The man's matured and upped his game a lot since then.
Likewise, Harper is nothing without his ground team and advisors. Strangely enough, he was just as inexperienced when he rolled into federal politics.
Trudeau and Ignatieff did the exact same thing- skip out on house votes, some pretty damn important just to do town halls and shit, and it's likely either Harper or Mulcair are going to bring up- rightfully, his absence, the question is whether or not he's going to deflect it better.
Like I've said before the big guns from the CPC won't be that he's inexperienced, it'll be something else. I'd wager on being an Elite (lots of bullshit talk of the "Laurentian Elite" going around conservative chatter these days). It's more of a gamble with him than with Ignatieff, who figured out far too late how to connect with people while it's basically Trudeau's natural talent, but if he doesn't do the right moves it will probably still stick.
If the NDP are at all smart they'll go hard against Trudeau rather than Harper as well. It's far more important that they maintain #2 than that they take #1 in this election, and the Liberals are a bigger or lesser threat to either of those goals respectively anyways.
To me Rae's stepping out of the way is more relevant to this than Trudeau stepping in. But the two together made it a sure thing to me.
If the NDP are at all smart they'll go hard against Trudeau rather than Harper as well. It's far more important that they maintain #2 than that they take #1 in this election, and the Liberals are a bigger or lesser threat to either of those goals respectively anyways.
To me Rae's stepping out of the way is more relevant to this than Trudeau stepping in. But the two together made it a sure thing to me.
Time will tell if his future performance will be better. I'm still voting NDP in the near future, but we'll see if I'll vote Red next election
The Laurentian Elite won't work; Trudeau has already deflected that by previous admissions that he wasn't middle class or lower class at all. That very admission makes it very hard for his opponents to attack him on that point because Trudeau uses it from a position of strength.
As far as Quebec is concerned, Quebec politics are very fickle. "National" interests matters just as popularity over there so time will tell if Trudeau will throw any treats toward his Quebec supporters.
Despite all the rumors, Rae was never going to take charge of the party. His age coupled with the devastation of the party made that a foregone conclusion.
IIRC, per capita, QC had a fraction of registration for leadership compared to most of the provinces. Given that there's been little indication that he's well liked there (papineau was a cake walk, let's be honest) I'd say that's going to be one of the tougher nuts to crack.
The removal of "interim" from all of his titles wasn't for shits and giggles. That is to say that his staff were doing everything they could to make a run feasible despite Rae's own ambivalence about running at all.
Don't agree on either point. On the first because the laurentian elite argument isn't intended to convince anyone who isn't already suspicious of his motives. Keep in mind the CPC haven't won by landslide margins, they've done well by keeping a very suspicious base as suspicious as possible. I don't think it's as simple as "admit it to deflect it" in this case at all. He needs to deflect it by engaging with people as much and as visibly as possible. Which is, fortunately for him, what he already seems to plan to do.
Re: Rae, if he was never even considering it he sure did wait a ridiculously long time to tell the rest of us. This was a big question mark over everything long after it became politically problematic.
I'm trying to find a previous poll of his popularity in QC, but I can't find it. Oh well. I kind of remember it saying that he was pretty well-favored there.
Yes, that kind of goes into the point I was trying to make. I think Rae, despite immense pressure from his staff and political allies, knew from very early on that he wasn't going to run. I think people too close to the process desperately wanted him to run, but were blind to the reality of the situation.
edit: I like to say that Rae got "Joe Clark"ed, despite it being a totally different political situation
Ha! Ya, that will happen. Marijuana legalization in the next decade? Sure, maybe.
A complete nuking of the CDSA? Never. Completely absurd.
iirc, Garneau HAD a plurality of the rural QC ridings but fuck-all anywhere else. Clusterfuck of a campaign with no groundgame.
Rae's staff and political allies dismissed the very idea of modernizing campaigning and campaign management in all of the meetings they've had with anyone worth their salt, so really, good riddance. As much as I shit on him, Trudeau's campaign infrastructure would have crushed them with or without the famous last name.
What a politician wants to do and believes is the right thing, versus what will happen are two very different things, yes.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I don't think Rae is electable in Ontario. He was the first part in the trilogy of terrible premiers that got us into the huge mess we are in now. He would have been a really poor choice, for the Liberal party as well as Canada.
He didn't poll badly in Ontario. Mediocre if anything even though Quebec, oddly, loved the man.
gutter_trash
Banned
http://youtu.be/-82_NnlZX1Q
Full Justin Trudeau acceptance speech without crappy CBC interpreters talking over when he switches language.
*sorry I can't find the Jean Chretien speech anywhere, eh oh well. I PVRed it though, lol
Conservatives pegged Dion on as a one-issue candidate: the Carbon Tax while outsider Iggy was painted as un-Canadian who just came back to Canada briefly to run for Prime Minister then take his ball back to Boston after he lost.
Conservatives will have a harder time to define Justin because he already has been busy defining himself and you can't call call the son of one the most promoinant Prime Ministers of Canada as un-Canadian.
Full Justin Trudeau acceptance speech without crappy CBC interpreters talking over when he switches language.
*sorry I can't find the Jean Chretien speech anywhere, eh oh well. I PVRed it though, lol
Conservatives pegged Dion on as a one-issue candidate: the Carbon Tax while outsider Iggy was painted as un-Canadian who just came back to Canada briefly to run for Prime Minister then take his ball back to Boston after he lost.
Conservatives will have a harder time to define Justin because he already has been busy defining himself and you can't call call the son of one the most promoinant Prime Ministers of Canada as un-Canadian.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Does no one else find it amusing that Quebec likes the MP from Toronto Centre and former Ontario premier?
gutter_trash
Banned
Quebecers don't like unknowns and nobodies.
Bob Rae is well known and his more respected than Mike Harris in public opinion inside Qc.
This is probably why Boston boy Michael Ignatieff faired so poorly and the worst for Liberals in history inside Quebec
Dunno, should I?
Mike Harris fucking sucked, an embarrassment to the PCs.
Wait, really? That's news to me.
It makes me wonder how Flarhety ever made it to Finance minister considering the baggage from Ontario. Did people simply not care?
Dammit, I don't have a PVR and I have no VCR tapes to use :/ Oh well.
gutter_trash
Banned
the Ontario wing of the Harper government is full of Harris Boys hacks, why the hell they elected, I don't know
Looking at Garneau's numbers and campaign structure myself, it was clear he was fucked, rural Quebec or not.
Because nobody's talking about this shit:
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Someone should get Redford to run for LPC leader from Calgary Centre. Now that would be a sight to see.
Totally agree with everyone on the Ontario Progressive Conservatives. They remind me a lot about Republicans, both parties are consistently WRONG about everything.
iirc, Martha's running for a Calgary seat in 2014/2015.
Davis and Eves were alright at least compared to Miller, Failherty (juvenile- I know), and Harris.
People only peg the problems of that time on Harris as if he ruled alone. At least, that's the only way I can explain it. Some have distanced themselves somewhat, others, like Hudak seem to gleefully dive into it whole hog.
matthewwhatever
Member
Perfect place for her. If there's one city that loves brittle, unlikeable people, it's the city that regularly elects Stephen Harper, Jason Kenney and Rob Anders by huge margins.
Jim Dinning had 38 MLAs behind him, had some people saying "(i)t would take an act of God for him to lose this race", and led after the first ballot. At worst, he was a co-frontrunner with Ted Morton.
Gary Mar had endorsements from 27 MLAs, received 40% after the first ballot, and picked up endorsements from the third, fourth and fifth place finishers before the second ballot. Wrong in hindsight quote for him: "After Saturday's first round of voting, it seems all but certain that Gary Mar will be the next Premier of Alberta.
In other words, saying Stelmach and Redford were anything but massive upsets is just wrong -- and they also prove that just because a race has an obvious frontrunner with a huge advantage, it doesn't mean they can't be caught. If you want an example more relevant to the federal Liberals, by Ignatieff not winning the leadership in 2006 (though there the anybody-but-Iggy movement was a lot more obvious) or by the recent provincial Ontario leadership race (though calling Wynne over Pupatello a Stelmach/Redford-style upset is clearly not a very good description).
Trudeau winning only looks like a foregone conclusion now, after the fact. He could easily have been caught up by frontrunner hubris/complacency, and the fact he didn't is a good sign.
I'm not going to talk about the 2006 election since I wasn't paying attention at that point in time.
However, with regards to Redford in 2011, the biggest problem with those endorsements was that a) those votes didn't follow Mar and b) there was the "old guard" narrative that was pervasive to his campaign. That, and Redford absolutely nailed the televised PC debate.
As well, the ballot numbers (especially first ballot) don't tell the whole story. There were a lot of non-traditional PC voters who deliberately bought memberships as well.
Lastly, I saw Gary Mar at a local dim sum place in Edmonton the morning after the vote. I've never seen someone so deflated in my life.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
First attack ad is out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1qKps7uG6eM
Pretty weak if you ask me.
Edit: and this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGWuN3ZVuxU
This one is way more vile.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1qKps7uG6eM
Pretty weak if you ask me.
Edit: and this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGWuN3ZVuxU
This one is way more vile.
Sapiens
Member
Oh man.
Canada eats these right up, too.
Look at Harper. Sitting there. Having Conversations about Canadian families. 1812. All the while, Justin is stripping down. Is he gay? Is he at a gay club dancing?
Harper: PM for life. Or at least until he gets caught in an airport bathroom.
matthewwhatever
Member
That first one seems pretty weak...second one is a little more effective, especially if Trudeau's line of attack is that the Conservatives haven't accomplished much, but still not that great. To me, attacking someone for being in over their head would've worked great against, say, Dion, since he usually did seem like he was over his head, but saying Trudeau is out of his depth as leader seems to overlook the fact that the one thing he's undeniably great at is projecting confidence. I get that a key part of modern Conservatism is attacking your rivals where they're strongest (makes the lower-hanging fruit easier to pick off), but unless they have footage of Trudeau looking weak and ineffectual, that seems like an awfully ineffectively line of attack.
Then again, I thought the "Just Visiting" charge against Iggy was stupid, so that shows how much I know.
It's the Conservatives' secret plan to drive NDPers back to the Liberals!
Then again, I thought the "Just Visiting" charge against Iggy was stupid, so that shows how much I know.
It's the Conservatives' secret plan to drive NDPers back to the Liberals!
gutter_trash
Banned
It begins, damn Republicans
matthewwhatever
Member
It's kind of reminiscent of the McCain campaign's "Obama is too much of a celebrity!" attack.
CitizenVectron
Member
Trudeau has a pretty simple counter:
"They played footage of me on a runway...that I was on for raising money for cancer. And they showed pictures of me with a silly mustouche...that I was wearing to raise money for cancer."
"They played footage of me on a runway...that I was on for raising money for cancer. And they showed pictures of me with a silly mustouche...that I was wearing to raise money for cancer."
I was reading the comments at the Post and some poster had it right: these ads aren't for us politically informed folks. They're for the masses who don't consume politics on a semi-regular basis. The average joe isn't going to know that he did these things at fundraisers.
I'd like to have faith that Canadians will be more informed this time around, but the last election did surprise me...
I'd like to have faith that Canadians will be more informed this time around, but the last election did surprise me...
That kind of easy to consume reversal tends to propagate pretty fast. Witness the PC ads making fun of the way Chretien talked contributing to their complete route.
CitizenVectron
Member
Personally, (and considering these ads are only online) I don't even think they are aiming them at the public, I think they are aiming them at their base. Good way to raise money.
matthewwhatever
Member
Not online only, actually. I just saw it on TV, during Jeopardy. They're targeting an older audience, I guess? I still think it's an odd line of attack, but we'll see. I know of two NDPers who said they're now more inclined to vote Liberal after seeing the ad.
Please don't let there be a Stephen Harper ad of the same thing...
So he counters the least important part of the commercial?
Im an uninformed canadian.
Was that quebecor comment taken out of context?
Is it true that his only jobs were as camp counselor, drama teacher, and rafting instructor?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
So what the ad is saying is that Harper has grey hair and Justin Trudeau looks mostly like Johnny Depp and has a cool soul patch. Also who doesn't like rafting?
I was young, but I remember "He talks out of the side of his mouth" and Chretien responding "At least I don't talk out of both sides of my mouth"
matthewwhatever
Member
Stephen Harper's only non-elected jobs were aide to a Reform MP and lobbyist for millionaires. I think working with Canadians looks pretty great by comparison.
(And if by camp instructor they mean "chaired Katimavik"...then sure, it's accurate he was a teacher who also ran a national initiative.)
(And if by camp instructor they mean "chaired Katimavik"...then sure, it's accurate he was a teacher who also ran a national initiative.)
Shh. Now that it's gone Katimavik never existed at all.
I was about to point out that being PM apparently doesn't require any real life experience at all given Harper's all-political life (oh but he's an Economist lawl), but you beat me to it.
Oh man, I remember seeing that.
matthewwhatever
Member
The ad was even worse than what you remember. The Tories did some pre-election polling in 1993 and found that the Liberals beat them on every issue but one: foreign policy. So the point of the ad wasn't just "look at this freak with a partially crippled face!", it was "look at this freak with a partially crippled face -- is that really who you want speaking for Canada internationally?"
The disgusting thing, though: according to Warren Kinsella's book, the Tories' poll numbers actually rebounded a little before they finally pulled the ads due to public outcry.
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