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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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firehawk12

Subete no aware
We have never had a deadlock in Canada like a 2 party system can produce. Wasted votes, sure, but deadlock? Where are you getting that notion? We have too strong a quasi-executive for anything in the legislature to ever truly lead to deadlock.

Anyways, you can not solve the FPTP problems by going to a two party system. By trying to do that you just permanently entrench the consequences of that system and ensure that parties will grow even more corrupt than they already are.

The only way to solve the problems brought about by FPTP is to get rid of FPTP.

Exactly. The solution to our problems (legislatively and democratically) is to get rid of FPTP, not to get rid of more parties.

Let me ask you guys this though - what is more likely to happen in the next 100 years, Canada ends FPTP and moves to a sane electoral system or Canada moves to a two party system with the random Bernie Sanders-like exception?

People barely understand what FPTP is and the provincial attempts to introduce new systems were met with resounding apathy and failure. At least political parties have the ability to merge and make coalitions without needing to go through the neanderthals that make up the 50% of Canadians that don't bother to vote in the first place. (Well, unless you are the Liberals and you are letting anyone vote for your next leader :p).

I suppose if you are a Conservative, you are loving this situation - in the same way that a Liberal loved when the right was destroying each other - but I'd rather have a government that truly represents the people and not one that exists because of split votes and voter apathy as a result of a electoral system that, in light of the new campaign finance rules, does not reward anyone for actually voting in a non-swing riding.

I constantly vacillate on whether or not like prefer the American system over the Westminster system that we're stuck with because we're a British colony. I really do think an elected executive would solve many problems, along with an elected senate, and while a two party system will never represent the interests of all Canadians, at least you are forced to choose one or the other.

What's funny is that in a small way, the Republicans are suffering from some of the same problems that arose out of the Reform movement, with the extreme right basically killing off Republicans in primary battles and even during elections. If they had their way, the RNC would probably wish that the Tea Party would just disappear and stop fucking things up for them.

(And I meant deadlocks between Reform/PC and Liberal/NDP candidates handing victories to the other party rather than legislative deadlocks).
 
It's definitely more likely we'd move to a 2-party system, but that's still the wrong move. In a 2-party system you tend to simply alternate between the parties. Even if a party screws up big time, they know they just have to wait for the public to eventually get tired of the other party and then they'll get another dance. Better to have 3 or more relevant parties because it forces the dominant 2 or 3 to be a bit more moderate and populist in their platforms.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
It's definitely more likely we'd move to a 2-party system, but that's still the wrong move. In a 2-party system you tend to simply alternate between the parties. Even if a party screws up big time, they know they just have to wait for the public to eventually get tired of the other party and then they'll get another dance. Better to have 3 or more relevant parties because it forces the dominant 2 or 3 to be a bit more moderate and populist in their platforms.

I'm just assuming FPTP is here to stay until Canada, as a nation, collapses and we are taken over by another country or just break up into several smaller countries. So basically until the next apocalypse. lol

I would be all for a 3 or 4 party system if it there was a history of the people constantly rotating between the various choices, but that is hardly ever the case.

I admit that I have a very eastern bias, so I really don't understand the whole history with Social Credit in the west, but it's not like the NDP was ever much of a factor here in the East beyond the random freak accident that people would rather soon forget happened (sorry Bob). Just looking through the electoral histories of the western provinces though, it still looks like it's mostly a two party race in every province, even if the names of the parties are different.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Let me ask you guys this though - what is more likely to happen in the next 100 years, Canada ends FPTP and moves to a sane electoral system or Canada moves to a two party system with the random Bernie Sanders-like exception?.

What is even the point of this question? It's like asking someone who said they like burgers if they think it's more likely they'll get a $200 steak or a nail through their foot in the next 5 minutes.

Anyways, the *threat* of the NDP has done huge good for this country, whether or not it has ever gained power. Do you like universal health care? Guess how that passed.

In a two party system there is no threat to the oligarchy.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
What is even the point of this question? It's like asking someone who said they like burgers if they think it's more likely they'll get a $200 steak or a nail through their foot in the next 5 minutes.

Anyways, the *threat* of the NDP has done huge good for this country, whether or not it has ever gained power. Do you like universal health care? Guess how that passed.

In a two party system there is no threat to the oligarchy.
I'm fine with one a generation protest parties. SoCred, NDP, the Bloc, fair enough. But as permanent fixtures, it just seems very detrimental. The NDP is trying to be an establishment party at this point, but to what end? Elizabeth May has probably the same chance as Mulcair at becoming PM in 2015.

(I would also be in support of IRV/preferential voting, but that will never happen here either. Of course, now I'm just envying the Australian system. lol)
 
I'm fine with one a generation protest parties. SoCred, NDP, the Bloc, fair enough. But as permanent fixtures, it just seems very detrimental. The NDP is trying to be an establishment party at this point, but to what end? Elizabeth May has probably the same chance as Mulcair at becoming PM in 2015.

(I would also be in support of IRV/preferential voting, but that will never happen here either. Of course, now I'm just envying the Australian system. lol)

Layton could have been PM in 2015. The right face can get a party anywhere.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I'm fine with one a generation protest parties. SoCred, NDP, the Bloc, fair enough. But as permanent fixtures, it just seems very detrimental. The NDP is trying to be an establishment party at this point, but to what end? Elizabeth May has probably the same chance as Mulcair at becoming PM in 2015.

That's not even remotely true.

(I would also be in support of IRV/preferential voting, but that will never happen here either. Of course, now I'm just envying the Australian system. lol)

And you don't want deadlock? Australia is a terrible model of electoral reform.

Anyways I feel like we've been down this road a few times and I still think you believe too strongly in a stasis that does not and has not ever existed in Canadian politics.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
That's not even remotely true.
A socialist party that runs away from socialism, even if it's just for show, makes me wonder what the point of the party even is at this point.

And you don't want deadlock? Australia is a terrible model of electoral reform.

Anyways I feel like we've been down this road a few times and I still think you believe too strongly in a stasis that does not and has not ever existed in Canadian politics.
Well, if you want to keep the pretense of having more than two parties but also allow everyone who votes Communist and Marxist-Leninist and Green to have their votes matter, preferential ballots allow people to choose candidates that will lose but also have their votes count toward electing someone that, while they may not want, at least they do not hate.

It's the wishy-washy compromise between MMP and FPTP, but it gives you a defacto two party system but with the "advantage" of having more than two parties.

And yes, I don't really see anything drastically changing in the next two cycles. I'm assuming that the Conservatives actually have a succession plan for when Harper will retire though and not let the party implode like other waning leaders in their final years of office.
 

diaspora

Member
A socialist party that runs away from socialism, even if it's just for show, makes me wonder what the point of the party even is at this point.

Looking at how the montreal convention went down it looks like it was almost entirely for show. Little has changed since 2011.
 

Azih

Member
(I would also be in support of IRV/preferential voting, but that will never happen here either. Of course, now I'm just envying the Australian system. lol)
Australia and the US are both terrible models to envy/emulate. What are you doing firehawk?

IRV in practice is incredibly similar to FPTP.
 
Anyone else confused as to how Denis Coderre got over 100,000 twitter followers? The fuck

He has been a social-media hog for quite some time.

Rumors have it that he is planning to quit as MP to enter Montreal's mayoral race for this November. He wants to be mayor, LOL he could actually win.
Nobody West of St-Laurent boulevard would vote for Louise Harrel as mayor
 
Ontario politics...

Hudak and the PC party are going to push a motion of no-confidence against the Liberals. I hope the NDP votes in abstention. No point in having an election right now if 1) the results are going to be the same thing or 2) PC minority government that will create a political gridlock. If I was in Horwath's position I would let the budget pass (not without a fight!) but come the time when the cost of the Oakville gas plant cancellation comes to light, I would vote no-confidence. Looking at the poll numbers after McGuinty's resignation, it seems most Liberal votes are orange grits, rather than blue. The $1 billion cancellation will give a good excuse for an election and the NDP might be able to form minority if not majority government (Hudak runs terrible campaigns and the Liberals would have a bad stench).
 

diaspora

Member
the NDP might be able to form minority if not majority government

Despite my distaste for the OLP, this isn't going to happen. Horwath makes Hudak look like a tactical master comparatively. Though I guess it's easy to forget that Don Guy helped them close a 15 point gap and that the grits outgun both the Tories and NDP in fundraising, talent, and infrastructure.
 
Despite my distaste for the OLP, this isn't going to happen. Horwath makes Hudak look like a tactical master comparatively. Though I guess it's easy to forget that Don Guy helped them close a 15 point gap and that the grits outgun both the Tories and NDP in fundraising, talent, and infrastructure.

It's true the ONDP is broke but I don't think they run bad campaigns (given the money they have). Horwath gained 7 points through the campaign while Hudak blew almost 20. Also people outside of the GTA are growing VERY cynical of the Liberals and with Oakville not helping, no campaign can win over cynical people. Western and Northern Ontario are going to be very difficult for the Liberals to hold onto and those are usually Liberal-NDP swing ridings.

NDP will need to figure out a way to grab some Hamilton-Niagara ridings. I think the NDP presence is growing stronger in this region so this is not the difficult part. The difficult part is breaking into the GTA and that's what's holding both the NDP and PCs away from power. If (and that's a big if) NDP conducts a decent campaign, Brampton, Scarborough and Oshawa seem more fickle than the rest, they'll be able to beat the Liberals. The path to NDP minority government is difficult but I think it can be done. The time, results and track record aren't on the Liberal's side.
 

diaspora

Member
It's true the ONDP is broke but I don't think they run bad campaigns (given the money they have). Horwath gained 7 points through the campaign while Hudak blew almost 20. Also people outside of the GTA are growing VERY cynical of the Liberals and with Oakville not helping, no campaign can win over cynical people. Western and Northern Ontario are going to be very difficult for the Liberals to hold onto and those are usually Liberal-NDP swing ridings.

NDP will need to figure out a way to grab some Hamilton-Niagara ridings. I think the NDP presence is growing stronger in this region so this is not the difficult part. The difficult part is breaking into the GTA and that's what's holding both the NDP and PCs away from power. If (and that's a big if) NDP conducts a decent campaign, Brampton, Scarborough and Oshawa seem more fickle than the rest, they'll be able to beat the Liberals. The path to NDP minority government is difficult but I think it can be done. The time, results and track record aren't on the Liberal's side.

You're assuming the grits will sit on their ass doing nothing though. If nothing else, a clean slate with Wynne will most likely lead to a strengthening of the OLP than anything else, especially given the image overhaul they've hired firms to work on.
 

Zzoram

Member
I don't get the gas plant cancellation issue.

Weren't the Conservatives also running on cancelling those plants? Isn't that why the Liberals had to cancel them, to not lose those seats to the Conservatives?

Also, if that's what the people wanted, that's what the people wanted. Are people living in the affected areas really saying they would've kept the plants if they knew the true cost of cancellation? If not, then the fact that the plants were cancelled should still make them happy.
 
I don't get the gas plant cancellation issue.

Weren't the Conservatives also running on cancelling those plants? Isn't that why the Liberals had to cancel them, to not lose those seats to the Conservatives?

Also, if that's what the people wanted, that's what the people wanted. Are people living in the affected areas really saying they would've kept the plants if they knew the true cost of cancellation? If not, then the fact that the plants were cancelled should still make them happy.


The rest of the province sees wasted money for political gain, they don't care what the people in those ridings think
 

diaspora

Member
I don't get the gas plant cancellation issue.

Weren't the Conservatives also running on cancelling those plants? Isn't that why the Liberals had to cancel them, to not lose those seats to the Conservatives?

iirc, everyone wanted them closed- the issue is in the cost difference. The assumption that the gas plant will hurt the OLP is the same mistake the LPC made in assuming that prorogation or "hidden" costs of the budget would sink the federal tories.
 
You're assuming the grits will sit on their ass doing nothing though. If nothing else, a clean slate with Wynne will most likely lead to a strengthening of the OLP than anything else, especially given the image overhaul they've hired firms to work on.

I am assuming the revealing the costs of the Oakville gas plants will make Western and Northern Ontario cynical enough to not vote Liberals. Yeah a Liberal strategist might be able to deflect that criticism away from Wynne and onto the "old Ontario government" but I don't think people are that dumb. Wynne has continued to be very secretive about the whole issue and it is stinking up her own administration. So no matter how good their campaign is, they will not win seats in those regions. They're already projected to lose Windsor-Tecumseh to the NDP and London West went from a riding that used to deliver Liberal victories to the tune of 30% and it's now a three-way swing riding. I don't think the Liberal strongholds are as strong as the OLP thinks they are.

I don't get the gas plant cancellation issue.

Weren't the Conservatives also running on cancelling those plants? Isn't that why the Liberals had to cancel them, to not lose those seats to the Conservatives?

Also, if that's what the people wanted, that's what the people wanted. Are people living in the affected areas really saying they would've kept the plants if they knew the true cost of cancellation? If not, then the fact that the plants were cancelled should still make them happy.

The Liberals have openly lied about the costing of the cancellations and continue to be very nontransparent. McGuinty's resignation and prorogation of Queen's Park doesn't help. Also the way they made their decision in a rushed manner has increased the cost a lot and gave Ontario less bargaining power. I don't know if a PC or NDP government would have handled the situation better (or if they would cancel the plants at all - politicians do indeed lie to win power), but the OLP handled the situation in one of the worst ways possible.
 

diaspora

Member
I am assuming the revealing the costs of the Oakville gas plants will make Western and Northern Ontario cynical enough to not vote Liberals. Yeah a Liberal strategist might be able to deflect that criticism away from Wynne and onto the "old Ontario government" but I don't think people are that dumb. Wynne has continued to be very secretive about the whole issue and it is stinking up her own administration. So no matter how good their campaign is, they will not win seats in those regions. They're already projected to lose Windsor-Tecumseh to the NDP and London West went from a riding that used to deliver Liberal victories to the tune of 30% and it's now a three-way swing riding. I don't think the Liberal strongholds are as strong as the OLP thinks they are.

The Liberals have openly lied about the costing of the cancellations and continue to be very nontransparent. McGuinty's resignation and prorogation of Queen's Park doesn't help. Also the way they made their decision in a rushed manner has increased the cost a lot and gave Ontario less bargaining power. I don't know if a PC or NDP government would have handled the situation better (or if they would cancel the plants at all - politicians do indeed lie to win power), but the OLP handled the situation in one of the worst ways possible.

IMO, you're vastly overestimating the staying power of the gas plant issue, doubly so since the OLP, PCs, and NDP have through their inane games with each other turned it effectively into a process issue which is something that almost never has staying power with the electorate.
 
IMO, you're vastly overestimating the staying power of the gas plant issue, doubly so since the OLP, PCs, and NDP have through their inane games with each other turned it effectively into a process issue which is something that almost never has staying power with the electorate.

I don't think the cost of the Oakville gas plant ballooning from $40 million to $700 million+ to up to $1 billion is going to sit well with the electorate. The report will probably come out in September, enough time for Mississauga to blow over and the two separate gas plants to be treated as two separate scandals.

Anyway, Oakville is just the excuse for the election. I agree with you that it won't make the Liberals falter. The Liberals are going to lose Northern and Western Ontario for many other reasons. By-election results and polls continue to show the Liberal's piss poor results outside the GTA, and I don't see that improving over time.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Australia and the US are both terrible models to envy/emulate. What are you doing firehawk?

IRV in practice is incredibly similar to FPTP.
Maybe it's grass is greener syndrome, but I'm just so tired of our pure FPTP system. IRV at least ensures that the winning candidate has at least 50% of the votes in a riding, if nothing else. (And it lets people "waste" their votes on fringe candidates but still support a real candidate in their second choice).

I probably would have liked a directly elected executive if only because in the last election, there was no doubt that Layton would have beat Harper in a one on one battle. That, and being able to cast a vote for the leader of a party - the person who is on TV all the time and that most people care about - would probably make elections a little bit more exciting for the people who don't bother voting.

I vacillate all the time on the senate though. Maybe if they were like 10 year terms, I'd be okay with senate elections. I do appreciate that all the mudslinging doesn't happen to the upper chamber (well, outside of the Conservative scandals that happened recently). At least something like the gun vote in the US wouldn't happen here.

Jack would have been able to hold on and get bigger. Quebec voted for the man not the party.

Mulcair is just a former angry environment minister who quit after a year on Charest's cabinet
I have no doubt that Mulcair is going to lose a lot of Quebec, even with his attempts to appease the sovereignty movement recently. Maybe Jack's charisma would have been enough to keep those voters happy though.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I probably would have liked a directly elected executive if only because in the last election

Uggggghhhhhhhhhh

Why do you keep proposing things proven to lead to deadlock?

Seriously, stop looking to the US for ideas. Of all the constitutional republics in modern history, the US is effectively the only one proven stable. And even it is fast becoming a disaster of epic proportions.
 
the US is a poor example on many aspects.

Established 2 party system.
SuperPac donations and how campaign funding works and who wins and loses from it.

Bizarro-world Fillabuster shenanigans
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Uggggghhhhhhhhhh

Why do you keep proposing things proven to lead to deadlock?

Seriously, stop looking to the US for ideas. Of all the constitutional republics in modern history, the US is effectively the only one proven stable. And even it is fast becoming a disaster of epic proportions.

I'm just thinking of voter agency/empowerment at the moment. Creating a system where you don't feel like you are throwing away your vote because you happen to live in the "wrong place" would probably help to serve the public more than it would harm any sense of democracy that we have now anyway.
 
I'm just thinking of voter agency/empowerment at the moment. Creating a system where you don't feel like you are throwing away your vote because you happen to live in the "wrong place" would probably help to serve the public more than it would harm any sense of democracy that we have now anyway.

That's as true for Mississippi Democrats as it is for Conservative Londoners as it is for Alberta Liberals.

We need to get over this idea that a voting system, and a voting system alone, will beget increased agency/empowerment with respect to feelings of "throwing away their vote". Voters are beyond cynical; many have just given up even trying to understand what goes on day-to-day in Parliament. As a result, when asked, a whole whack of people will mix up what goes on in their province and what goes on in Ottawa. Which for whatever reason, gets treated as "they're not paying attention therefore we can do what we want." Creating, in the end, this cycle of disengagement/disenfranchisement that won't be fixed with a more involved voting system.

Why don't we talk about agency and empowerment in terms of "throwing away their vote" because "all parties are the same" and will act no matter their stripe or who votes for them. That's a greater concern in terms of breaking the cynicism cycle than strategic voting on account of geography. Strategic voting and "I'm an x voter in a y riding" implies at least some degree of engagement with the system, writ large, whereas "everyone's the same" implies little-to-no depth of awareness and engagement at all. (On the premise that you have to know enough about your local area and riding and political representation to feel you're outnumbered and therefore don't count, while you don't have to know anything at all to dismiss political parties as "all the same" with no further explanation.)

Thinking about the problem of non-engagement and non-voting in this way, the solutions are less about the electoral system and more about education, grassroots leadership, and changes to party structures.

That's not to say the electoral system should not be changed - but, rather, that we should look at other ways to increase agency and empowerment first.
 
The Liberals seem to have finally realized that letting attack ads go unanswered is bad strategy, and they've created a response ad to the Conservatives: Channel Change, with Trudeau being all Obama/post-partisan-y.

I like it (but, then again, I would). My only worry with it is that the Liberals can't afford to get into any kind of fight over the airwaves with the Conservatives -- especially not one lasting two years -- so who knows what kind of media buy will go along with the ad. Still, it's better than nothing, and it starts framing the next election as a choice between the Liberals and the Conservatives, thereby pushing the NDP back to the side.
 
Hello, Canadians! I have a question. Occasionally I browse this thread for some reading on nearby parliamentary politics, and want some clarification on one point. Is your government allowed to run advertisements defending its record?
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Hello, Canadians! I have a question. Occasionally I browse this thread for some reading on nearby parliamentary politics, and want some clarification on one point. Is your government allowed to run advertisements defending its record?

Yes, although typically the expectation is that they will use neutral language ("Canada's government") rather than "LOL VOTE 4 US NEXT TIME ARROWND THE OPPOSITION IS KENYANS!!!!".
 
Yes, although typically the expectation is that they will use neutral language ("Canada's government") rather than "LOL VOTE 4 US NEXT TIME ARROWND THE OPPOSITION IS KENYANS!!!!".

Interesting. There's nothing like that in the U.S. After some thought, allowing a government to advertise itself seems to be unfair given the monetary advantage. I'd rather have the candidate justify his or her record.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Interesting. There's nothing like that in the U.S. After some thought, allowing a government to advertise itself seems to be unfair given the monetary advantage. I'd rather have the candidate justify his or her record.

Some of the difference is accounted for in the fact that the United States has a divided executive and legislative branch (and two functional legislative branches, at that), while Canada is a Westminister-style parliamentary system. So "the government" is a more unified and meaningful concept than it is in America. But again, most of the ads here focus more on the acts of the bureaucracy's capacity to do things, although obviously the bureaucracy implements legislation from and takes direction from the minister in charge. Harper has definitely increased the visibility of government ads as compared with previous governments.
 
Some of the difference is accounted for in the fact that the United States has a divided executive and legislative branch (and two functional legislative branches, at that), while Canada is a Westminister-style parliamentary system. So "the government" is a more unified and meaningful concept than it is in America. But again, most of the ads here focus more on the acts of the bureaucracy's capacity to do things, although obviously the bureaucracy implements legislation from and takes direction from the minister in charge. Harper has definitely increased the visibility of government ads as compared with previous governments.

Mhm. I had similar thoughts as well. And if I may comment on one more thing:
Uggggghhhhhhhhhh

Why do you keep proposing things proven to lead to deadlock?

Seriously, stop looking to the US for ideas. Of all the constitutional republics in modern history, the US is effectively the only one proven stable. And even it is fast becoming a disaster of epic proportions.
I honestly think the Constitution will be chucked within the next fifty years; certainly before the end of the century.
 

diaspora

Member
678768-justin-trudeau-philippe-couillard-rencontres.jpg


Interdasting
 
the parlimentary system isn't the problem. It's the election system, financing and lobby groups which are the problem.

If you were to standardize the election process to weed out candidates, like rob anders, who won their seat without any community involvement or participation. If you gave every candidate the same funds, and you gave every party the same air time, then many of the problem that the current system has would disappear.
 

diaspora

Member
the parlimentary system isn't the problem. It's the election system, financing and lobby groups which are the problem.

If you were to standardize the election process to weed out candidates, like rob anders, who won their seat without any community involvement or participation. If you gave every candidate the same funds, and you gave every party the same air time, then many of the problem that the current system has would disappear.

Financing? The maximum donation limit is $1100, and the average donation for all 3 major parties sits at $100~ per person, if that.
 
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