gutter_trash
Banned
today I learned that BC Liberals are more like Progressive Conservatives on the Right wing scale and are not affiliated with Federal Liberals.
ah!
now I know, lol
ah!
now I know, lol
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
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oneils
Member
They did. Sub-headers (titles?) used to have red colouring. Then when the conservatives came in in 2006, all the sub-headers turned blue.
Lately, though, the gov has been changing its identity guidelines for gov webpages.
You can see the recent changes by comparing
Ag Canada (old design)
to
DFO (new design)
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Looks like the NDP got spanked, despite the Liberals doing everything they can to take the race for themselves. Wow.
So what happened with the scientific polling? Was it not a large enough aggregate? I didn't really pay attention to the polls, but apparently they were projecting an NDP victory and most definitely not a Liberal majority.
Obviously some people stayed home, but aren't the polls designed to account for and anticipate variables like those?
Obviously some people stayed home, but aren't the polls designed to account for and anticipate variables like those?
Polls predicted a 9-10+ point lead for an NDP majority. Same happened with Wildrose in Alberta, and the PCs in Ontario. Hell, even though the PLQ lost in Quebec, they still massively closed the gap against the PQ.
Well, to answer your question, they are reasonably accurate for a pre-election feel I think. IMO, the main issue is in how people take these polls and assume the public opinion expressed in them will last the duration of the campaign.
Well isn't it safe to assume that the polls the media were referring to were those taken a day or two before the election? I'm thinking of the US experience in 2012, though, while maybe BC's polls aren't as frequent or as comprehensive.
Even regular media polling iirc closing in on election day indicated a shift in public opinion from what I remember in a Stephen Carter talk.
There is also a BC Conservative party but they go nowhere.
MeBecomingI
Member
There seems to be something wrong with provincial polling these last few election cycles. They have been terribly inaccurate three times in a row now. Alberta, Quebec and now B.C.
To me, at least from what I've seen in these last few provincial elections, is that polling for a party (in the case of the NDP in B.C and the Rose Party in Alberta) that has shown strong signs of voter support seem to end up falling victim to confidence. I think a lot of those who had intentions to vote for the NDP, for example, didn't as they expected (as the polls would indicate) the NDP were going to win anyway with such large polling numbers. "They are going to win anyway, I'm not even going to bother." They end up getting blinded by confidence that they will win and that ends up morphing into some form of voter apathy.
Also, I find that polling is done simply to gauge interest in your voting intentions. Your intention may be to vote for the NDP which would be counted in the poll, but that doesn't mean you will vote. Support numbers may be high for a particular party, but that isn't an automatical vote and they may give no shits about actually going out and voting.
For me, I don't even trust them anymore.
In Alberta they mostly stopped polling several days before e-day. The ones who did poll registered a swing back towards the PCs. But some of it was almost certainly cold feet in the face of an almost certain WRP win from people who may have protest-voted to the left if it had been otherwise.
Not sure if the same factors fit BC, but it looks like Christy Clark might lose her seat, which is interesting and a little bit novel in this kind of situation. She's down 300 or so votes with 7 polls left to count.
Not sure if the same factors fit BC, but it looks like Christy Clark might lose her seat, which is interesting and a little bit novel in this kind of situation. She's down 300 or so votes with 7 polls left to count.
gutter_trash
Banned
First it was the Wild Rose the polls got wrong in Alberta,
now it's the BC NDP that the polls got completely wrong in BC
LOLOLOL
I love it when polls are dead wrong.
Young people did not go vote as usual
In Quebec, the provincial Liberals usually get polled lower than actual electoral results. They polled that Jean Charest's Liberals would get wiped out after 9 years of power and that Pauline would win an easy majority.
But Pauline Marois's PQ only won 4 seats more than the Liberals and snagged a weak minority when the final results came in.
The next Quebec election will be a Liberal majority. It took 6 months for Pauline Marois to get the same level of low approval ratings that took Jean Charest 9 years to get. Doctor Couillard is being well liked and would whoop Pauline easy.
There is a nationalist stigma in Quebec that you should not admit publicly that you vote Liberal = why provincial Liberals poll lower in opinion polls than in actual election results. When that individual Quebec voter is alone in the voting booth, he votes Liberal LOL
now it's the BC NDP that the polls got completely wrong in BC
LOLOLOL
I love it when polls are dead wrong.
Young people did not go vote as usual
In Quebec, the provincial Liberals usually get polled lower than actual electoral results. They polled that Jean Charest's Liberals would get wiped out after 9 years of power and that Pauline would win an easy majority.
But Pauline Marois's PQ only won 4 seats more than the Liberals and snagged a weak minority when the final results came in.
The next Quebec election will be a Liberal majority. It took 6 months for Pauline Marois to get the same level of low approval ratings that took Jean Charest 9 years to get. Doctor Couillard is being well liked and would whoop Pauline easy.
There is a nationalist stigma in Quebec that you should not admit publicly that you vote Liberal = why provincial Liberals poll lower in opinion polls than in actual election results. When that individual Quebec voter is alone in the voting booth, he votes Liberal LOL
matthewwhatever
Member
I'm genuinely stunned by this. How did the NDP blow a 20 point lead? It's not like Alberta, where I figured that even if the polls looked bleak for the PCs, they'd still manage to pull something off since they were the PCs in Alberta. This is the NDP in BC -- a pretty known quantity. And it's not like the Liberals were running some fear-based campaign, saying Dix had a hidden agenda. The ads I saw (yay for cable) all just called him a flip-flopper...not exactly the kind of thing that should flip an electorate by 25 points in a few weeks. I'm just shocked.
Re: inaccurate polling, hasn't the biggest criticism in recent years that they heavily overlook people who don't have landlines? That partially explains Alberta, at least, since I'm assuming that Wildrose support skewed a little older, and thus some of the PC support was hidden by voters who only had cell phones. In BC, though, I would've assumed that it'd be the NDP who had the edge amongst younger/no landline voters.
One other problem with polls: they can't measure the strength of a party's Get Out The Vote operation. It's possible in BC that the Liberals were just better at identifying their supporters, and then making sure they voted.
Re: inaccurate polling, hasn't the biggest criticism in recent years that they heavily overlook people who don't have landlines? That partially explains Alberta, at least, since I'm assuming that Wildrose support skewed a little older, and thus some of the PC support was hidden by voters who only had cell phones. In BC, though, I would've assumed that it'd be the NDP who had the edge amongst younger/no landline voters.
One other problem with polls: they can't measure the strength of a party's Get Out The Vote operation. It's possible in BC that the Liberals were just better at identifying their supporters, and then making sure they voted.
gutter_trash
Banned
Green vote splitting w the NDP + LOW voter turnout
The BC Liberals is a coalition of the centre left, centre, and centre right, with the latter two being dominant. Consequently you have overlap with the federal grits and Ontario grits in terms of actual staff. Case in point- strategist Don Guy got hired for the BC election, the same man that destroyed Hudak's 15 point lead.
MyAbsolution
Member
I think its pretty obvious. Left wingers tend not to care or to not vote; that's most youngsters and liberal minds. 50% voter turnout is pitiful, and BC will continue to get these results until people show up.
CitizenVectron
Member
This might actually be one important factor that many are overlooking: Trudeau and the federal Liberals. Though the BC Liberals are actually closer to the federal Conservatives, the name itself is "Liberal," so that may have had an effect with the mainstream voter seeing as Trudeau has made the Liberals popular again across the country (at least for now, hard to predict the future).
The other (larger) factor is probably just incredibly low voter turnout. I mean, 50%? Seriously?
Greens got a seat. That's something new for BC.
gutter_trash
Banned
Provincial NDP parties are closely tied to Federal NDP. The BC NDP defeat is excellent news for Trudeau in 2015 when it concerns with BC NDP medling in Federal elections ib BC
Analysts are saying that pollsters are starting to get it wrong because they're not accounting for regional disparities. I suspect that this is on the money, considering that there were huge regional differences in the Alberta elections as well (ie. similar to BC interior politics).
CitizenVectron
Member
Canadian pollsters also have no clue about "likely voter" models that the US uses. If you noticed US polls, they often might say something like "Obama has 50% support among all voters, but only 45% among likely voters."
This is because not all eligible voters vote, obviously! You have to take away a chunk of the youth vote, boost the elderly vote, etc. This doesn't seem to be done in Canada, they just take people at face value which has been proven wrong. You have to manipulate the numbers to match statistical models, then you can be accurate like say, Nate Silver in the US.
Word is most canadian pollsters model on enthusiasm rather than likelihood. But almost all of them consider their modelling proprietary and don't release both sets of numbers.
Honestly I think a big part of it is the small subsamples. Our system makes people regionally polarized (even on a riding-to-riding or polling-station to polling-station level) and the way they sample I think they wind up not having enough raw data to accurately model the electorate in their post-processing. I mean, in the federal election Nanos was doing rolling surveys of 1000 people nationally (so about 333 people per day for a roll of 3 days) and then releasing regional breakdowns where some of the regions were including like 5 people.
But I'm not an expert or anything, so that could be completely wrong.
MyAbsolution
Member
That's originally why they made the party in the 90s and called it the "Liberals". When the federal liberals were at height popularity/power. Being a "Social Credit" member wasn't exactly very hip.
Genius move really. Its like if the Nazi party were to rename itself "Happy Awesome Time" Party im sure that would sway some voters who don't know any better.
Ewwww. Thats where I am from.
Jesus Christ could have ran for the NDP in a bunch of ridings there. And I guarantee you he would have lost.
Where are people getting turnout numbers btw? BC's election website doesn't seem to have them and so often really stupid numbers get thrown around on election night because they always seem to insist on reporting (votes-counted-so-far)/(all-registered-electors) as the turnout while votes are still being counted.
MyAbsolution
Member
Elections BC has the total number of votes from eligible voters (so far). And websites are simply subtracting that from the number of eligible voters to get the percentage. I guess Elections BC doesnt want to list the exact percent yet... but it seems pretty solid at 52% (which is 1 whole percent better turnout than last time!)
gutter_trash
Banned
the most hilarious news is that Christy Clark was defeated in her riding LOL.
She will have to pull off a Robert Bourassa and get one of her MLAs to give up a seat for her
She will have to pull off a Robert Bourassa and get one of her MLAs to give up a seat for her
Well, depending on how many of the outstanding votes are from advance polls that could still jump a bit. Ridings have relatively fewer advance polls than normal polls and they seem to be getting a lot more use lately than they used to.
That said I'm not sure I buy into the turnout crisis that gets talked about a lot. Year on year comparisons don't tend to control for the % of registered electors against the adult population as a whole and I think more people register now than used to. Particularly since they made it so you can register with your taxes.
Oh shit, I must be you guys' absolute favorite person. I didn't vote (due to complete apathy towards all candidates and parties) but I'm also not bummed out the Liberals are in. Probably better than the NDP for a soon-to-be-out-of-university kid like me... they are total douchebags though. Blocked some kid on Facebook this morning because he was saying "Go out and experience BC's beautiful coast before its gone" whiny nonsense. Whatever.
bonesmccoy
Banned
According to NatPo's data, the non-NDP Left took 8% of the vote, while the non-BCL Right* took 8.1%.
*Huntington appears to lean slightly Right, though I don't know much about her.
If you add it all together, the Centre-Right parties took either 52.5 or 49.2% of the vote, while the Centre-Left parties took 47.5%.
I'm eager to see how political scientists chop up these results.
One (anecdotal) thing I found interesting: a lot of people I know who previously voted BCL were actually voting Green this year. These are voters who would never vote NDP.
*Huntington appears to lean slightly Right, though I don't know much about her.
If you add it all together, the Centre-Right parties took either 52.5 or 49.2% of the vote, while the Centre-Left parties took 47.5%.
I'm eager to see how political scientists chop up these results.
One (anecdotal) thing I found interesting: a lot of people I know who previously voted BCL were actually voting Green this year. These are voters who would never vote NDP.
matthewwhatever
Member
I read on Macleans that the BC NDP campaign was run by the same people who did their last federal campaign, in 2011. It criticized them for trying to run a Layton-style campaign with someone who wasn't a Layton-style politician. If they're planning on doing that with Mulcair -- and if their BC and Ontario campaigns plus all their federal campaigns after Layton became leader are anything to go by, they probably are -- that can't bode well for them in 2015.
Fuck you, too.
I really doubt they will with Mulcair. Mulcair's an attack dog politician. Doesn't necessarily mean he has to go dirty, but I'd definitely expect him to go all out on the offensive.
Trudeau basically inherited the Promised One mantle anyways, no room for two of that kind of campaign.
Nazi is just the short version. They were the National Socialist German Workers' Party.
Which doesn't really sound like the name of a right wing extremist party, does it?
Which was convenient for filling up word count on WWII related essays.
bonesmccoy
Banned
I didn't find the BCNDP's campaign to be 'positive', I found it to be passive.
Also Justin is from BC and is UBC Alumni, that would get some play in BC.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Yeah and "Change for the better" is a terrible slogan that reeks of Obama copycat. Also I tried to read their platform, and it had unrelated pictures on the left and tiny ass size 8 paragraphs on the right. tl;dr basically, and I'm sure most aren't in the mood to read tiny text. It was released so late into the campaign too, I guess they just prayed no one would read it. Here it is for anyone who wants to see it: http://www.bcndp.ca/platformviewer/
Anyway despite the disappointing Liberal win, I'm happy the Greens got at least one seat. Hopefully the mark of a transition to a multi-party system, so majority governments won't be so easy next time.
Well, there's also the people that remember that Dix is hardly a good public servant even when stacked up against the BC Grits.
Well excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuse me princess.
That's because there's no "centre" in the BC NDP's left. Regional differences like this pop up in places like the Calgary-Centre byelection, the voters largely split between the tories and the greens rather than greens and liberals.
Agreed.
CitizenVectron
Member
Looks like less than 50% voted in BC: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/reacts+record+voter+turnout+election/8385293/story.html
Also, this Harper PMO thing seems to be blowing up. I wonder if Harper will be touched by it (in the sense it's shown he knew about it). It not only looks now like his COS paid $90,000 for Duffy, it also looks like the Senate committee whitewashed their verdict on Duffy as part of the backroom deal.
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