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[Nikodemos]

There is a increasing GDP to debt ratio because of the short term austerity. As austerity is adopted, there is a cycle of sharp decline as the potential capacity of GDP and GDP itself falls ( high interest rates means investment falls rapidly), so debt to GDP ratios continually rise with lower tax revenues.

Austerity causes decreases in economic growth (I'm not debating the merits of 'good' versus 'bad' economic growth). If you are already in a recession, this tends to lengthen it/augment its effects. Deficits tend to appear/grow during a recession due to reduced income. Also, a lot of private debt became nationalised early on in the recession (cca. 2009) due to some particularly idiotic short-term thinking, which caused countries with relatively low levels of public debt to suddenly implode, budget-wise (ex. Spain; cf. Iceland). During a recession, private capital holders tend to be extremely risk-averse and prefer placing their funds in various financial instruments (the stock-market or similar) or 'hard' assets (farmland in Eastern European countries, f'rex) rather than invest in new ventures. A government theoretically has a stick/carrot combo to shake the private economy unstuck: the threat of inflation (stick) or "quantitative easing" as it tends to be called in recent economic treatises, and collateralisation of private investments with government funds (carrot). However, without its own currency, a government can't QE; with large amounts of debt (either its own or nationalised private) and/or a mechanism forcing it to comply with strict deficit bands, it can't collateralise private investments.

And to this mess you add the public pension system, which is a "given right" or "earned right" in some countries (it is mentioned in some constitutions under "welfare state" provisions). This means outright lowering pensions by policymakers is unconstitutional (unless some sort of artifice like overtaxing is employed). Unfortunately, very few politicians are willing to tackle the pensions issue because old people are a 'hard' voting bloc compared to youth. Also, a considerable number of private pension funds own deposit certificates and bonds in various European banks (which, in their turn, took over toxic assets such as subprime mortgages), meaning that were politicians to cut their golden parachute cords, several tens, if not hundreds of thousands of (future) pensioners will end up pauperised (this is linked to the repeal of Glass-Steagal, the barrier between investment and commercial banks).

 

[Volotaire]

Austerity causes decreases in economic growth (I'm not debating the merits of 'good' versus 'bad' economic growth). If you are already in a recession, this tends to lengthen it/augment its effects. Deficits tend to appear/grow during a recession due to reduced income. Also, a lot of private debt became nationalised early on in the recession (cca. 2009) due to some particularly idiotic short-term thinking, which caused countries with relatively low levels of public debt to suddenly implode, budget-wise (ex. Spain; cf. Iceland). During a recession, private capital holders tend to be extremely risk-averse and prefer placing their funds in various financial instruments (the stock-market or similar) or 'hard' assets (farmland in Eastern European countries, f'rex) rather than invest in new ventures. A government theoretically has a stick/carrot combo to shake the private economy unstuck: the threat of inflation (stick) or "quantitative easing" as it tends to be called in recent economic treatises, and collateralisation of private investments with government funds (carrot). However, without its own currency, a government can't QE; with large amounts of debt (either its own or nationalised private) and/or a mechanism forcing it to comply with strict deficit bands, it can't collateralise private investments.

And to this mess you add the public pension system, which is a "given right" or "earned right" in some countries (it is mentioned in some constitutions under "welfare state" provisions). This means outright lowering pensions by policymakers is unconstitutional (unless some sort of artifice like overtaxing is employed). Unfortunately, very few politicians are willing to tackle the pensions issue because old people are a 'hard' voting bloc compared to youth. Also, a considerable number of private pension funds own deposit certificates and bonds in various European banks (which, in their turn, took over toxic assets such as subprime mortgages), meaning that were politicians to cut their golden parachute cords, several tens, if not hundreds of thousands of (future) pensioners will end up pauperised (this is linked to the repeal of Glass-Steagal, the barrier between investment and commercial banks).

I didn't have time to go into the analysis at a transmission mechanism argument , but you're completely right. Thanks.

 

[Kabouter]

Nope that's the face mainstream media want to glue to every eurosceptic party.

Every party which didn't want to follow glorius road to one big european country was asked in interviews why are they going to EU parliament if they are sceptics in Poland in an obvious attemp to scare voters.

I can't say I'm familiar with every Eurosceptic party, but the PVV in my own country are unequivocal about wanting to leave the EU, as is the FN in France (as leaving the Euro means leaving the EU), as is UKIP in Britain and so on. The most popular Eurosceptic parties do favour complete withdrawal. Your post makes it sound like you're on Fox News, with the evil mainstream media trying to create this narrative against the only people still fighting for the freedom of the people, protecting them from being subsumed in a communist superstate.

Moving on:

https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470856199869857794
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470853842725507072

lol.

 

[Kurtofan]

^^^^^^^: we're so fucked

I didn't know Nadine Morano was head of list in East France, that's just perfect, cherry on the fucking shitcake

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

The thing that gives me a little hope with regards UKIP is that I'm not sure there are any more 'big bang' movements of people for their demographic to be concerned about.

We're seeing Polish migration decline, Romanian and Bulgarian migration just never really kicked off (despite the warnings)...

When people start moving back to fast-growing Poland, who's left for UKIP to scaremonger over?

Muslims?

 

[Funky Papa]

Moving on:

https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470856199869857794
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470853842725507072

lol.

 

[Mael]

^^^^^^^: we're so fucked

I didn't know Nadine Morano was head of list in East France, that's just perfect, cherry on the fucking shitcake

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHHAAHAHAH
We had Rachida Dati in Paris & Co,
guess why I didn't vote for UMP.
This is absolutely perfect, this whole thing was once again a massive lost opportunity.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

The only way it'd work is if you have the CyclopsRock Party wherein I make all the policies and if anyone doesn't like it, they can vote for someone else. But how effective do you think that'd be? I'd get the vote of me and, because she's nice, probably my mum. Who else?

Aksy would give you a vote ;-P

 

[kitch9]

No idea if you are a racist or not, but you (presumably) voted for racists. So make of that as you will.

If you voted for the status quo you too voted for a racist, discriminatory, protectionist and bigoted immigration system.

Make of that what you will.

 

[Vashetti]

I am stunned that UKIP won.

Genuinely worried for the future of my country now.

 

[nib95]

I am stunned that UKIP won.

Genuinely worried for the future of my country now.

Same. Narrow mindedness, ignorance, boogeymen and scapegoating always leads to this kind of bullshit. What a shitty few years it's been.

 

[Bold One]

I am stunned that UKIP won.

Genuinely worried for the future of my country now.

yeah, feels like a Southpark episode

Eric Cartman = Nigel Farage

Ukip followers = Butters

the rest kind of writes itself

 

[Masquerader]

I am stunned that UKIP won.

Genuinely worried for the future of my country now.

Agreed. This sadly says a lot about the people who live here, mind. I think i'll leave soon, if I can.

 

[kitch9]

Agreed. This sadly says a lot about the people who live here, mind. I think i'll leave soon, if I can.

People just want to protest, let them and try not to read to much into it.

It'll be interesting to see what the other parties do to try to counter them. It stuns me that some are still in denial.

People are genuinely concerned about high immigration figures and rightly so IMO. The rest of UKIP policies people couldn't care less about.

 

[Kabouter]

People just want to protest, let them and try not to read to much into it.

While I agree that in part it is protest voting, it doesn't seem wise or reasonable to just assume that people only vote UKIP for their anti-EU stance and either disagree with or are neutral on their other stances.

 

[PJV3]

Agreed. This sadly says a lot about the people who live here, mind. I think i'll leave soon, if I can.

I was pleasantly surprised it wasn't worse.

 

[Mael]

People just want to protest, let them and try not to read to much into it.

An outlet to vent frustration is great but acts do have consequences.
I guess they should have gone to some judo classes to exert themselves instead of venting their frustration in a ballot box...

 

[kitch9]

While I agree that in part it is protest voting, it doesn't seem wise or reasonable to just assume that people only vote UKIP for their anti-EU stance and either disagree with or are neutral on their other stances.

The rest of UKIP policies are mindless back of a fag packet stuff.

There's a growing feeling across the UK and the EU that the EU never obtained a mandate and it keeps pushing the boundaries of a mandate it hasn't been given.

 

[kitch9]

An outlet to vent frustration is great but acts do have consequences.
I guess they should have gone to some judo classes to exert themselves instead of venting their frustration in a ballot box...

Yes, hopefully the EU looks at its weak areas and improves.

Democracy will have worked in that case. The EU is becoming a lumbering bethomoth which is drunk on its own power. Hopefully this sobers it up.

 

[Nikodemos]

Muslims?

Nah, the UKIP are too chickenshit to take them on. Pakistani/Indian/Bangladeshi Muslim lobby could swallow them in one bite, chew'em up and spit'em out as a dozen Paddington bears.

 

[Mael]

Yes, hopefully the EU looks at its weak areas and improves.

Democracy will have worked in that case. The EU is becoming a lumbering bethomoth which is drunk on its own power. Hopefully this sobers it up.

You should look at who gets sent where.
If the FN's seats are like before they'll never attend anyway and nothing will get done.
It's like for the referendum, NO ONE (pro or con) wanted some of the bad things in it.
In the end the bad things were part of earlier texts and fully integrated in the country constitution anyway.
Nothing can still be done against the commission anyway and that haven't changed with this election.
Misdirection at its finest, nothing will come of this "cry of the people" as the far right will call it.

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

Further right England and Wales get dragged the more likely we are to vote Yes.

Good, good.

Except your not likely to vote yes either way, so give it up, you've lost that one.

 

[Palette Swap]

^^^^^^^: we're so fucked

I didn't know Nadine Morano was head of list in East France, that's just perfect, cherry on the fucking shitcake

UMP unceremoniously dismissed their previous guy, who had done something like 3 or 4 mandates and had some expertise, to put her incompetent ass in there.

Big party politics are pretty disgusting, which sure doesn't help people feel UMP/PS actually give a real fuck about Europe.

The silver lining here is that Copé is pretty much done. It's high time they got rid of that clown.

 

[Doczu]

I can't say I'm familiar with every Eurosceptic party, but the PVV in my own country are unequivocal about wanting to leave the EU, as is the FN in France (as leaving the Euro means leaving the EU), as is UKIP in Britain and so on. The most popular Eurosceptic parties do favour complete withdrawal. Your post makes it sound like you're on Fox News, with the evil mainstream media trying to create this narrative against the only people still fighting for the freedom of the people, protecting them from being subsumed in a communist superstate.

Moving on:

https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470856199869857794
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/470853842725507072

lol.

The victory of eurosceptics (yes, it is a victory for them) shows that there is a growing community in the whole EU that slowly shows they are displeased (to say the least) about things happening around them. Yes, a lot of their concerns should be taken on the national level, but if they can't win there, they want to take it higher.
I am eurosceptic myself, as is the most of my family (both in Poland and the Dutch ones), but the party which i have chosen, KNP (Congress of the New Right) want to take the EU back to what it originally was - the European Economic Community, not "destroy" it.
And the thing is, there is just as lot pressure on us now, as there were on those that wanted to expand the Community beyond the economics.

 

[Vashetti]

So what happens now that UKIP has won this election?

Sorry for the potentially stupid question but I don't know a huge amount about this.

 

[gngf123]

I wouldn't put it entirely down to a protest vote. A lot of my family voted UKIP pretty genuinely because they are tired of immigration, the EU, and "the foreigners stealing our stuff", and I hear a lot of other people down here in Essex saying the same thing. I just hope I'm in a particularly bad group.

Good news is that no way this transfers to the general election.

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

So what happens now that UKIP has won this election?

The left will implode and enter moral panic mode for the next 12mths until the general election, the Scots will go on kidding themselves that they don't support anything UKIP stands for because they're a morally superior race and the right will see how many of UKIP's policies they can steal to get back their voters

..and the rest of us will just get on with daily life.

In other words nothing much.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I wouldn't put it entirely down to a protest vote. A lot of my family voted UKIP pretty genuinely because they are morons, and I hear a lot of other people down here in Essex saying the same thing. I just hope I'm in a particularly bad group.

Good news is that no way this transfers to the general election.

FTFY

No other excuse to vote UKIP.

There is an outside chance that this result will cause a change of leadership for the Lib Dems and a possible end to the Coalition in Britain, but I'm not putting much weight on that.

 

[Xando]

Why am I not suprised that people who made riots when they had minimum salary cut down to 800 euro after years of living on someone else money is voting far left blaming Germans for not giving them more cash.

Well that seems to be motto of the week in a lot of european countries

 

[cripterion]

This is a classic example where the responsibility lies with the police and local authorities, but the blame is thrown at Europe.

What would exactly do FN about this type of situations? Let's hear the non-racist or non-xenophobic solution for this.

You say that when I've explained why local authorities and police hands are tied because of the law, dude....

 

[Kabouter]

The victory of eurosceptics (yes, it is a victory for them) shows that there is a growing community in the whole EU that slowly shows they are displeased (to say the least) about things happening around them. Yes, a lot of their concerns should be taken on the national level, but if they can't win there, they want to take it higher.
I am eurosceptic myself, as is the most of my family (both in Poland and the Dutch ones), but the party which i have chosen, KNP (Congress of the New Right) want to take the EU back to what it originally was - the European Economic Community, not "destroy" it.
And the thing is, there is just as lot pressure on us now, as there were on those that wanted to expand the Community beyond the economics.

It's fine to just want an economic community, but let's not you and I pretend that it is taking the EU back to what it was. The ECSC, the organization that would eventually lead to the EU, was intended as a first step towards the eventual federalization of Europe, which would finally bring an end to millennia of bloodshed on this continent.

The pooling of coal and steel production should immediately provide for the setting up of common foundations for economic development as a first step in the federation of Europe, and will change the destinies of those regions which have long been devoted to the manufacture of munitions of war, of which they have been the most constant victims.

By pooling basic production and by instituting a new High Authority, whose decisions will bind France, Germany and other member countries, this proposal will lead to the realization of the first concrete foundation of a European federation indispensable to the preservation of peace.

 

[SamVimes]

M5S is a complicated matter, that it would be pretty hard to understand from outside Italy (I have a mile long txt on my desktop that I wanted to post on GAF, but I always assumed no one would really care), and I'm too sleepy to even try to explain it now.

But yes, you're completely right and that is the perfect depiction of what M5S is in theory (and to a great extent in practice too).
But at the same time, there are both the supporters and the leader itself.

While supporters on FB shout stuff that comes from fascism (ie. threatening disagreeing people to be force fed with castor oil, something that Mussolini actually did), Grillo during speeches mixes simple populism with really dreadful concepts.
Like, a web based court to judge condemn politicians and journalists in "collusion" with the current political corrupt power.
Or references to mafia jargon, like, once they get the power, they'll go all "lupara bianca" on old politicians ("lupara bianca" is when mafia kills someone and no one ever find his body anymore, like drowned in water or dipped in concrete).

To this add all the usuals, like immigrants turk err jurbs, euro fucked us up (while apparently no one remembers anymore that soon after the switch to euro, every fucking store doubled their prices to "match" the lira counterpart (conversion rate was 1€ = 2000L, but suddenly prices were 2000L = 2€), and wages just couldn't adapt to that), racism, sexism, homophobia, and plenty of other terribad things that often forget that most of our problems are caused by us (like tax evasion) and it doesn't make any sense to blame it to Europe, or US, or whatever.

(then we could also talk about the "brainwash" or "autogenic training" M5S supporters are subjected and that seems more a cult than a party, but then it would REALLY get too complicated)

Don't forget chemtrails and antivaccination.

 

[gngf123]

FTFY

No other excuse to vote UKIP.

People who happily regurgitate whatever they see written in the Daily Mail normally are. Unfortunately these people do exist.

 

[Xando]

It's fine to just want an economic community, but let's not you and I pretend that it is taking the EU back to what it was. The ECSC, the organization that would eventually lead to the EU, was intended as a first step towards the eventual federalization of Europe, which would finally bring an end to millennia of bloodshed on this continent.

And i think this would probably be the right next step. Unfortunately not many people seem to agree.

 

[Reuenthal]

While I don't like the form of some of the eurosceptic parties, or some of their other positions on other issues, I am glad to see the rise of euroscepticism.

 

[Mael]

UMP unceremoniously dismissed their previous guy, who had done something like 3 or 4 mandates and had some expertise, to put her incompetent ass in there.

Big party politics are pretty disgusting, which sure doesn't help people feel UMP/PS actually give a real fuck about Europe.

The silver lining here is that Copé is pretty much done. It's high time they got rid of that clown.

They don't.
Let's be serious for a moment, they never gave a fuck about the EU and never did.
Go back to all the elections since the Maastricht and before, they never cared about the EU and the impacts it would have.
There's no need to act surprised here, they only care about their little jobs or France for the most altruists of them.

 

[Doczu]

It's fine to just want an economic community, but let's not you and I pretend that it is taking the EU back to what it was. The ECSC, the organization that would eventually lead to the EU, was intended as a first step towards the eventual federalization of Europe, which would finally bring an end to millennia of bloodshed on this continent.

But that's not what i (and a goddamn lot of people) want. We don't want federalisation. And we have the right to say so. We don't want emigration, we don't want a lot of the things that the EU wants us to have. I can agree on free travel between countries, economic community, but why more?

 

[Nikodemos]

It's fine to just want an economic community, but let's not you and I pretend that it is taking the EU back to what it was. The ECSC, the organization that would eventually lead to the EU, was intended as a first step towards the eventual federalization of Europe, which would finally bring an end to millennia of bloodshed on this continent.

This, several times over. The European Communities were never supposed to be merely a slightly more integrated predecessor of the GATT (the current WTO). From the beginning, they were intented to serve as stepping stones towards an eventual Federal European Republic and Schuman et Cie. unequivocally said so in the founding papers. The whole narrative about being 'sold' something as something else is just Thatcherite-era populist self-justifying bullshit.

 

[MisterFalcon]

And i think this would probably be the right next step. Unfortunately not many people seem to agree.

Looking at the world since WW2 there have been way more civil wars then wars between nations. It's silly that you can maintain the argument that a federal Europe makes war impossible if the biggest war Europe has seen since 1945 was the one in Federal Yugoslavia.

 

[Doczu]

This, several times over. The European Communities were never supposed to be merely a slightly more integrated predecessor of the GATT (the current WTO). From the beginning, they were intented to serve as stepping stones towards an eventual Federal European Republic and Schuman et Cie. unequivocally said so in the founding papers. The whole narrative about being 'sold' something as something else is just Thatcherite-era populist self-justifying bullshit.

I'm not denying that it was sold as something else, because it wasn't. I'm just against the federisation of Europe. That's all.

 

[Acosta]

The victory of eurosceptics (yes, it is a victory for them) shows that there is a growing community in the whole EU that slowly shows they are displeased (to say the least) about things happening around them. Yes, a lot of their concerns should be taken on the national level, but if they can't win there, they want to take it higher.
I am eurosceptic myself, as is the most of my family (both in Poland and the Dutch ones), but the party which i have chosen, KNP (Congress of the New Right) want to take the EU back to what it originally was - the European Economic Community, not "destroy" it.
And the thing is, there is just as lot pressure on us now, as there were on those that wanted to expand the Community beyond the economics.

That has never been the purpose of the EU, the EEC was just a intermediate step. I really hope you voted "no" in the referendum because if you didn't, you failed at doing your homework.

But that's not what i (and a goddamn lot of people) want. We don't want federalisation. And we have the right to say so. We don't want emigration, we don't want a lot of the things that the EU wants us to have. I can agree on free travel between countries, economic community, but why more?

Lol. For fuck's sake.

"We don't want inmigration" hahahaha

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

Looking at the world since WW2 there have been way more civil wars then wars between nations. It's silly that you can maintain the argument that a federal Europe makes war impossible if the biggest war Europe has seen since 1945 was the one in Federal Yugoslavia.

War in Europe only matters if it involves a conflict between Germany, the UK or France...everyone else's wars can be contained.

 

[kitch9]

You should look at who gets sent where.
If the FN's seats are like before they'll never attend anyway and nothing will get done.
It's like for the referendum, NO ONE (pro or con) wanted some of the bad things in it.
In the end the bad things were part of earlier texts and fully integrated in the country constitution anyway.
Nothing can still be done against the commission anyway and that haven't changed with this election.
Misdirection at its finest, nothing will come of this "cry of the people" as the far right will call it.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. What's the point in voting at all if it changes nothing? Maybe they should ban voting in case people vote the wrong way and employ the army to keep the peace if any civil unrest kicks off? I could imagine that would work, like it or not.

If governments keep going against the populations will without a mandate then they should expect what comes to them.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Just saying, ukip now have more ethnic minority meps than the lib dems have mps in the house of commons.

 

[Nikodemos]

I'm not denying that it was sold as something else, because it wasn't. I'm just against the federisation of Europe. That's all.

It's an all or nothing package deal. It was designed from the very beginning as one. A cascading ever-integrative construction. No pick-and-choosing possible.

 

[kitch9]

Just saying, ukip now have more ethnic minority meps than the lib dems have mps in the house of commons.

They are the only party advocating an immigration system where everyone gets the same crack of the whip regardless of where in the world you come from.

How racist and xenophobic of them.

 

[Mael]

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. What's the point in voting at all if it changes nothing? Maybe they should ban voting in case people vote the wrong way and employ the army to keep the peace if any civil unrest kicks off? I could imagine that would work, like it or not.

If governments keep going against the populations will without a mandate then they should expect what comes to them.

You missed my point.
My point is that the FN will not use their seats for anything but fund their national campaign.
They never voted on anything or did any work.
They do nothing.

 

[Doczu]

It's an all or nothing package deal. It was designed from the very beginning as one. A cascading ever-integrative construction. No pick-and-choosing possible.

Then i feel cheated (in 2004 i was too young), as i had no possibility to choose. What now? Am i to sit quietly when i'm unhappy? You do know that this is not the way things work.

 

[Korez]

 

[Nikodemos]

Then i feel cheated, as i had no possibility to choose. What now? Am i to sit quietly when i'm unhappy? You do know that this is not the way things work.

You can't stop this train. But you can switch the points, as long as you choose your local politicians wisely. Or you can derail it, with a big (negative) impact on everyone, including yourself.