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[hemo memo]

But it's also a proper handheld and people/gamers know that. Eventually Nintendo will ditch the 3ds fully for this and all their handheld games will move here.

No. If it's a proper handheled they would have introduced a handheld bundle only. This is specifically marketed and is a "home console first" by Nintendo words.

And Nintendo said the Switch is not replacing the 3DS and the consoles to "coexist just fine".

 

[SuperLeviathan]

They'd need Pokemon for those kind of numbers. And given what's going on with Fire Emblem, it'll likely be a while before it makes the jump to Switch.

 

[Hattori]

It's achievable, given that they churn out quality games at a rapid pace which is now possible with unified system

 

[Painguy]

Pokemon will keep this thing from being WiiU staus.

 

[Crayon]

The switch is going to do better than the x1 and I expect many here to meet that with outright denial.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

No. If it's a proper handheled they would have introduced a handheld bundle only. This is specifically marketed and is a "home console first" by Nintendo words.

And Nintendo said the Switch is not replacing the 3DS and the consoles to "coexist just fine".

They're just hedging their bets. If Switch sales well the 3DS will be dead after this year.

 

[jonno394]

No. If it's a proper handheled they would have introduced a handheld bundle only. This is specifically marketed and is a "home console first" by Nintendo words.

And Nintendo said the Switch is not replacing the 3DS and the consoles to "coexist just fine".

By proper hand held i mean it can be used 100% as a handheld if you do desire. Meant nothing more nothing less.

 

[LordRaptor]

The Xbox One is not an example of what a successful console can do, because it's not a successful console. The fact that the WiiU has been hanging out with an even more atrocious market-share is blinding people to that fact.

I guess it depends on how much you believe the industry has contracted, and how much you believe everything is just fine.
The X1 is an example of a console with all the third parties in the world developing for it, platform owner purchased exclusives, both full and timed, and deep discount price cuts early in its lifespan, all things people claim the Switch needs to be successful.

 

[FelipeMGM]

I hope so, the hardware looks fantastic. That kind of numbers would mean bigtime support

I will struggle at first tho

 

[schuelma]

They'd need Pokemon for those kind of numbers. And given what's going on with Fire Emblem, it'll likely be a while before it makes the jump to Switch.

I don't get this. 3DS is getting a remake in May, and the next mainline game was already announced for Switch. Its a very clear, logical transition.

 

[noshten]

YouTube have been all over the board.

The dislike bars on the official game videos doesn't even show up if Youtube reaction has been all over the board you'd see more dislikes for the official videos.

 

[xochipiltontli]

If Nintendo supports this thing properly I could see 40 million by 2021. A natural decrease from what the 3DS did, and a noticeable jump over the Wii U, Gamecube, and even N64. Sure it's not as good as their combined hardware in past gens (150 DS + 100 Wii, 80 million GBA + 22 million GCN, etc), but considering the current viability of dedicated handheld gaming and how impenetrable the red ocean market is, I'd say that's at least good enough to keep them around as a third player in the console market.

 

[Serenitynow]

I can't tell if people are just trolling when they think that all of the launch problems (high price, few games, and lack of pack-in) are going to doom this thing for the next 4 years or if they are just that naïve

 

[Dark Cloud]

By proper hand held i mean it can be used 100% as a handheld. Nothing more nothing less.

I mean the Switch is already getting that Project Octopath Traveler game from Square, which is a game that would've never came to Nintendos console. It's a handheld experience game from the looks of it.

 

[120v]

40 mil by the turn of the decade is a safe bet. I'd take it to the bank

 

[Elios83]

Emmmm NO.

 

[Toxi]

Pokemon will keep this thing from being WiiU staus.

That would bring it to GameCube status.

 

[mario_O]

But it's also a proper handheld and people/gamers know that. Eventually Nintendo will ditch the 3ds fully for this and all their handheld games will move here.

Price-wise is not a handheld. Parents are not going to spend 400 euros for a handheld.

 

[TS-08]

the switch is way more unappealing as a product than wii U. Wii U, people got confused about but it certainly did not have the widespread negative response to it that Switch has. Switch, I think is way more unappealing for a whole deluge of reasons

Switch is way more appealing than the Wii U was. Don't be persuaded by GAF's reactions to things like the voice chat app, which is, admittedly, a poor decision. Most consumers won't be dissuaded by those things and some of the complaints (like price, software lineup and no streaming apps) will probably be addressed at some point in the not so distant future.

 

[Kouriozan]

Good luck, this is probably the Japanese's gaming market last chance.
Watching Media Create threads those last few years was really painful.

 

[randomengine]

The switch is going to do better than the x1 and I expect many here to meet that with outright denial.

They still deny that Wii won it's generation. They are like Trump. Deny reality

 

[Roufianos]

I think it's too early to make any long term predictions.

A slim version with Pokémon, longer battery and a significant price cut could work wonders.

All I know is that Switch is really going to struggle at launch and in the months ahead.

 

[azyless]

I'm not specially optimistic about the console but the "sub 15M" posts are hilarious. This is gonna sell more than Wii U at least, come on.
It'll probably be a slow start though.

 

[Imperfected]

I kind of feel like that's optimistic in terms of manufacturing, much less sales.

 

[randomengine]

I can't tell if people are just trolling when they think that all of the launch problems (high price, few games, and lack of pack-in) are going to doom this thing for the next 4 years or if they are just that naïve

Wishful thinking on their part. They want it to fail

 

[notaskwid]

I think it's too early to make any long term predictions.

A slim version with Pokémon, longer battery and a significant price cut could work wonders.

All I know is that Switch is really going to struggle at launch and in the months ahead.

This is where I stand too.
The only problem is that for it to achieve this kind of sales they'll have to cut the price by half in 1 year.

 

[phanphare]

They'd need Pokemon for those kind of numbers. And given what's going on with Fire Emblem, it'll likely be a while before it makes the jump to Switch.

the next mainline Fire Emblem game is going to be for Switch

not sure what you mean

 

[bachikarn]

As a successor to the Wii U, this would be a massive success relatively.

As a successor to the Wii U and 3DS, it would be low I think. Maybe not a disappointment given realistic market situation. This is probably why there is a big push by them to diversify (theme parks, etc).

 

[mejin]

I hope so.

 

[Anth0ny]

That would bring it to GameCube status.

I'm thinking Pokemon + all of their teams focused on one platform, resulting in many more high quality Nintendo games = N64 numbers give or take


so 30-40m for switch in total

 

[Dark Cloud]

Has Nintendo given their forecast on how many sales they think they will get from the Switch in its first year?

 

[Zarovitch]

They'd need Pokemon for those kind of numbers. And given what's going on with Fire Emblem, it'll likely be a while before it makes the jump to Switch.

Fire Emblem Switch is for 2018

 

[CarbonFire]

20 Million in just over 3 years? Seems doable, especially when Japan could probably do around half that with no real competition in the dedicated portable console space.

30 million? Only if they get aggressive on price drops (yea right).

40 million? Dream on.

 

[Mr T.]

No. If it's a proper handheled they would have introduced a handheld bundle only. This is specifically marketed and is a "home console first" by Nintendo words.

And Nintendo said the Switch is not replacing the 3DS and the consoles to "coexist just fine".

You actually believe the Nintendo public relations team's words? Because, everything they're doing internally suggests they are indeed replacing the 3DS. They already cut the supply of 3DS units to the point where they are hard to find in stores in the US (and have been since last Fall). The 3DS's announced games are drying up and offering 2 products on the handheld market means Nintendo is competing with itself. Like it or not, the 3DS is at the end of its life cycle. Nintendo will completely phase it out in 2018 when people start realizing all their new first party games will be exclusive to the Switch.

 

[Ban Puncher]

Okay so who is keeping score for the 2020 Eat Crow thread?

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I guess it depends on how much you believe the industry has contracted, and how much you believe everything is just fine.
The X1 is an example of a console with all the third parties in the world developing for it, platform owner purchased exclusives, both full and timed, and deep discount price cuts early in its lifespan, all things people claim the Switch needs to be successful.

I think the big thing here isn't industry contraction, it's more and more core gamers being satisfied with owning only one platform.

The 360 and PS3 finished in a near tie at around 80 million apiece. There's not going to be a near tie or even close to it this time as fewer people are buying both. The industry is more and more dominated by third parties--look how well the PS4 sold its first year with weak exclusives--and honestly the exclusive library still isn't super impressive with Uncharted 4 being the only really blockbuster sales wise.

Thus more people don't see the point in shelling out for two consoles. They can't keep up with all the games they'd like to play on the one they own now that so many games are coming out all the time, who cares if they miss out on some exclusives on the ones they don't own?

Add in all platforms having paid online, and that's another barrier. PS4 owner may want to play Gears 4 or Halo 5 or Forza. But kind of wanting to play those games is different than shelling out $250 plus for a console bundle and another $60 a year for another stupid online gaming service subscription when they're probably already not happy about paying for the first one.

So I think more people that ever are gaming, they're just not buying multiple platforms at as high a rate. I think Nintendo is shooting themselves in the foot here as well. They needed to position themselves as the best option for a second platform for those thinking about getting a second system. A $300 launch price, ridiculously overpriced accessories and paid online does the opposite. Especially when compared to $250 slim bundles from the competition that are only going to get cheaper.

 

[hatchx]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

You are basing sales estimates on gaf?

If you look at other areas of the Internet the reaction is quite positive. Youtubers, reaction videos, even IGN and gamexplain were raving about what they saw.

I dunno, once people start seeing Zelda and Pokemon on this thing I think it will do well. It's a portable so it will be out in the open. Insta-multiplayer helps.

I'm not saying it will sell gangbusters, but I think it has a fair shot at selling close to 3DS numbers as the OP states.

 

[FlaygletheBagel]

I can see the Switch doing 40m if Nintendo is smart with it; It has potential to do a little higher if Nintendo is willing to correct some of the absurdity surrounding it at launch (overpriced accessories, phone app requirement for online, no streaming apps at launch, the NES/SNES game you get with the subscription being temporary, etc.). If Nintendo continues to fumble this stuff and year 2-3 support turns out to be as sparse as year 1, I don't see it doing much more than 25-30m at most.

 

[Inferno313]

I guess it depends on how much you believe the industry has contracted, and how much you believe everything is just fine.
The X1 is an example of a console with all the third parties in the world developing for it, platform owner purchased exclusives, both full and timed, and deep discount price cuts early in its lifespan, all things people claim the Switch needs to be successful.

Those aren't necessarily the things Switch needs to succeed. The 3DS was a much bigger success than the Xbox One, without having many of these things. The Xbox One's biggest problem is that ultimately it's an offering that is nearly identical, while being ultimately less compelling, to what it's competitor offers.

The Switch can succeed by offering a library and play experience that's wholly different from the competition, such that it'll attract audiences that are looking for different things than what those systems offer, and core gamers who want a secondary console with a significantly different offering. Essentially, what the Wii did. (Though, I wouldn't expect a success on the same scale, by any means.)

 

[Fularu]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

Gaf's reaction to the Wii was dismissive, lauging at it and calling it a sure bomb.

that reveal thread was glorious

In short, don't take "Gaf's reactions' as if they mean anything, they really don't.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Fire Emblem Switch is for 2018

Then if a new mainline Pokémon game comes in 2018 isn't that before 2020?

 

[EmiPrime]

40m in four years is more than what the Xbox one will realistically do and that has proper support from all that major western third party publishers, not half arsed and/or late ports.

I don't see that happening based on current evidence. If I'm wrong nothing would please me more.

 

[marc^o^]

If it sells that, it will mean local multiplayer will have taken off again. It will mean greatness.

 

[whalleywhat]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

You seem new here.

 

[onemanasylum]

Gaf's reaction to the Wii was dismissive, lauging at it and calling it a sure bomb.

that reveal thread was glorious

In short, don't take "Gaf's reactions' as if they mean anything, they really don't.

The wii was the exception, no one saw that lightning in a bottle coming, not the norm, Nintendo systems have been steady on decline since N64.. Switch has nothing like motion controls to pull in grand mothers.

 

[NinjaCoachZ]

Because? Lower game prices? Because we all know Nintendo games drop in price

Why are you bringing up game prices? Yeah it sucks they don't go on sale often, but even in the latest NPD thread from last month, Mario Kart 7, Smash Bros, Pokemon X and OmegaRuby were all in the top 10 for 3DS games. Likewise for NSMBU, Splatoon, and Smash Bros on Wii U. Mario Kart Wii and NSMB Wii sold consistently through last gen. I'm talking about lower hardware prices.

 

[Inferno313]

The wii was the exception, no one say that lightning in a bottle coming, not the norm, Nintendo systems have been steady on decline since N64..

Everyone, except for GAF, thought the Wii was going to be big. it got huge mainstream media attention. It wasn't a shock that it was a success, the degree to which it was a success might've been the only surprise.

 

[Calm Mind]

The Wii U has sold 13 million in roughly that timescale.

I think the Switch is currently on a path to selling less.

So I'm gonna say 10 million by 2020, unless Nintendo get third parties on board properly.

The Wii U had far more going against it than the Switch will ever have. I am surprised how well it did at retail. Which in itself is a credit to how great Nintendo's 1st party offerings are.

The Switch however has the complete backing of Nintendo's best and brightest. Something the Wii U only got glimpses of from time to time.

I know it may be too early to make assumptions but that alone gives me hope greater than anything that they can achieve or surpass their goals.

 

[LordRaptor]

I think the big thing here isn't industry contraction, it's more and more core gamers being satisfied with owning only one platform.

Industry contraction is very real, its just a question of by how much.

Those aren't necessarily the things Switch needs to succeed. The 3DS was a much bigger success than the Xbox One, without having many of these things. The Xbox One's biggest problem is that ultimately it's an offering that is nearly identical, while being ultimately less compelling, to what it's competitor offers.

The Switch can succeed by offering a library and play experience that's wholly different from the competition, such that it'll attract audiences that are looking for different things than what those systems offer, and core gamers who want a secondary console with a significantly different offering. Essentially, what the Wii did. (Though, I wouldn't expect a success on the same scale, by any means.)

I don't fully disagree, its just Nintendo seem to be in the unenviable position of having to fix things that MS and Sony broke and create growth where there is currently stagnation or contraction.

I mean, I don't think its impossible, I just don't think its a given by any means.

 

[megabytecr]

It has just come to me, Switch marketing secret sauce will be the portability, Nintendo actually has a marketer in each user that takes the console outside and is willing to try it with other people. If the HD Rumble is as great a feature, then a lot of people will be able to try it out and then they will want one too.