Sample sizes, how do they work.
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NBA Finals 2016 |OT| - The King demands seconds. The Chef delivers.
- Thread starter Gully State
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Sample sizes, how do they work.
Stabby McSter
Member
Ranking all 30 players in the 2016 NBA Finals
I'm at work so I probably shouldn't type out the list.
I'm at work so I probably shouldn't type out the list.
1. Lebron James
2. Stephen Curry
3. Andre Iguodala
2. Stephen Curry
3. Andre Iguodala
CopperPuppy
Member
Ninja Scooter
Member
So your disputing a sample size of the past two seasons because you'd rather focus on a single game (that is included in those same stats) that better fits your narrative?
Kyrie has been decent these playoffs defensively. Im not saying he is a great defender, but he aint shitty at it. You cant devise an entire gameplan around him. Plus kyrie probably wont guard curry. Whoever kyrie is guarding wont be able to take advantage of him because hes not even that bad a defender in the first place
Hey, I'm totally open to the notion that for some reason Kyrie against the Warriors matches up in such a way that hey can play defense at a decent level, in the way that Game 1 went last year.
I wouldn't bet on it though.
When we are talking about playoffs and finals, yes. Kyrie is better defensively in the playoffs. Thats like saying the cavs should do the same with curry lol
Ninja Scooter
Member
But he hasn't. Both he and the Cavs defense had been awful, decidedly worse than in the regular season, in the playoffs. The numbers bear that out. Just like the numbers show he's terrible guarding Klay too, so you can't really hide him off Steph. Yet your counter to those evidence is what? "That one time I think I remember seeing him play good defense?"
But he's not. He's been worse, like league worst if you count pick and roll, on defense in these playoffs, just like the Cavs as a whole have gotten worse defensively. These are facts. There's absolutely zero statistical evidence to support anything you are saying, yet people like you would probably say that the reason for this is because stats don't matter, right?
PadWarrior
Member
So Klay won't be able to take advantage of him in the post? Or anywhere else on the court?
Did you even read what I posted on how many points he gives up on Klay?
i3allistic
Member
So i was listening to 95.7 sports talk this morning, and they interviewed a Cleveland beat writer this morning, and they asked him how he think the Cav's will play against the dubs....he mention Tyronn Lue wanted to run with the Dub's .....if Lebron jump shot aint falling, it gonna get ugly quick for the Cav's....
Stabby McSter
Member
if the cavs want ANY shot at getting one for the land, lebron doesn't take any jump shots
Gully State
Member
Yeah...that's the impression I get too. Not that I don't agree that the Cav's best chance is to grind it out and limit possessions but with the way they've been playing and the way they're constructed, seems like the Cavs want to outplay the Warriors at shooting the 3 ball and in transition. I imagine they're going to at least try it...
Why would kyrie be guarding klay except for a switch on a pick and roll or something? Shumpert, jr, lebron, and delly will be guarding klay and curry.
Joei
Member
Lue actually stated he wanted to "push the pace." That doesn't necessarily mean he wants a run and gun, shoot it out affair, that'd be foolish. But Cavs do have the number one transition offense, and I think that's what he's implying.
Ninja Scooter
Member
So first you say Kyrie won't guard Steph. Now you say Kyrie won't guard Klay...So Kyrie won't be guarding anyone? Bold strategy but one that probably plays to his strengths.
PadWarrior
Member
So you talking about a lineup with Kyrie on the bench then? He's going to have to guard someone. And the Warriors are good at exploiting match ups like that.
Monochromaticx
Member
They will slap him on harrison or iggy. Hell, they probably will put him on curry for a little bit since you cant really stop him anyway.
So Kyrie guards who? Green, Iggy, Barnes?
They are gonna be rolling out a 3 guard lineup all game? Putting Lebron at the 4 and Love at the 5? Sounds disastrous.
Stabby McSter
Member
Ninja Scooter
Member
So that leaves LeBron running around chasing Klay or Curry? Seems like a good use of energy for him.
Diprosalic
Banned
Curry is a specialist? he's so much more than shooting 3s, his ability to attack the basket is up there with the best of them and he averages 7 assists and 5 rebounds.
I just don't see how the Cavs are going to defend the PnR effectively. They can't switch like OKC did because they aren't athletic or long enough at the 4/5. They can trap but that opens up Dray to do his thing driving the paint or acting as facilitator hitting the open man.
Edit: I kinda hope they do at least try switching like OKC did though so people can actually see why it was effective with that team and why it won't work with other teams.
Edit: I kinda hope they do at least try switching like OKC did though so people can actually see why it was effective with that team and why it won't work with other teams.
CaptBirdman
Banned
Yeah, I am aware you're being sarcastic about putting him in the starting line up, but Frye is more dangerous against 2nd units because they tend to not be able to guard him, or play lazy defense against a stretch 4/5, which will in turn, pull Bogut or Ezeli out of the paint. This opens up lanes for Richardson and LeBron.
Regarding Frye's streak, it's not a small sample size. He has played every playoff game and is averaging 4 attempts per game at 60%. That's a HUGE deal, especially for a bench player.
He's a leader in Win Shares per 48, the leader in Offensive Rating, the leader in TS% (again, this is a better measure than just pure FG%), and doing all this, from the bench, being a spot up shooter.
This demonstrably shows that Frye is, statistically, the best 3pt shooter in the playoffs right now.
With the weight you guys give stats, I'm not sure how you can ignore these.
Diprosalic
Banned
Curry has 4 attempts in a quarter. There's a huge difference between the shots Curry takes and the one's Frye is taking.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Nobody is ignoring them. He's a valuable bench scorer for Cleveland, a good shooter on a great streak. But I don't think anybody is arguing that the offensive side of the ball is where Cleveland is in trouble. For every three Channing Frye takes or makes, how will he do on defense?
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
He's also only averaging what, 15 min a game?
Not a small sample size, riiiight. I already gave a warning, take your trolling elsewhere.
i3allistic
Member
Frye, ...dude hasn't done anything his whole entire career.....and aint richard jefferson like 50 yeras old .....his career took a nose dive ever since he left NJ when Kidd and Martin was still playing ....
Gully State
Member
Yeah even when you talk about his scoring, his ability to finish in the paint at 68% for the regular season is ridiculous. And it's not like he's getting to the paint once or twice a game either.
I am really interested in seeing how the other Cavs players, especially Love and Kyrie, react if they get punched in the mouth by Golden State. Other than Lebron most of the other Cavs players have never really been tested and definitely not in these playoffs. James has what it takes to respond, but do the other guys?
Lue really needs to nail his starting lineup and try and put GS on the defensive and make them react, like what OKC did. Have the Cavs started Frye and bought Love off of the bench? I also think Shumpert could be big in this series if he can play a role similar to Iggy, but for him to stay on the floor he needs to contribute more on offense. Like I said, Lue has his work cut out for him.
Lue really needs to nail his starting lineup and try and put GS on the defensive and make them react, like what OKC did. Have the Cavs started Frye and bought Love off of the bench? I also think Shumpert could be big in this series if he can play a role similar to Iggy, but for him to stay on the floor he needs to contribute more on offense. Like I said, Lue has his work cut out for him.
Gully State
Member
On one hand, Klay and Dame look like they could project to becoming better 3 point scorers than Steph...of course, Steph's numbers are a bit off since he effectively lost 2 seasons to injury.
Klay, maybe. Dame...I doubt it. Dame's % is like, <38%. That's not very good. He's a volume 3 point shooter like Klay and Steph without the same efficiency. Like Steph (and unlike Klay, who doesn't have this particular skill) he can create off the dribble and shoot it from a variety of different looks... but unlike Steph, he doesn't have the accuracy.
I don't think they'll catch up...Especially if Steph continues to do what he did this year.
Joei
Member
Nope. I don't think they'd entertain pulling him off the bench, but it's been discussed media-wise. It's definitely going to be a balancing act. I have to agree getting off to a fast start would be Cleveland's best bet, but I don't think their concern is anything related to the offensive end, if anything though, they have to stay consistent on offense and keep scoring and hope their plan, whatever that may be, works on the defensive end.
EDIT - the only real switch I could see them doing this series would be Frye for Smith in probably game 3. If Smith goes cold, starts making bad decisions, etc. I think he would have the shortest leash. His D has picked up this post-season though.
Cavs should start JR, Kyrie, Shump, Lebron and maybe Love. Or hell, Delly and Kyrie. Hide Kyrie on Barnes or Iggy and let JR/Delly and Shump go at Curry and Klay.
If Lue leans on small ball like this I think they'll have a good chance. Any two big lineups will get run off the court imo. Love and Thompson, Love and Frye, etc. None of that will work. Lebron is hopefully not willing to do this, but he should play a ton of 4 this series matched up with Draymond. And if Lue really has balls he'll play Delly, Kyrie, JR, Shump all together with Lebron at 5 against Draymond.
As a Warriors fan I worry this series will be much, much tougher than some of the odds / models are projecting. I think the Cavs have some decent small lineups if Lebron is willing to play in the front court.
If Lue leans on small ball like this I think they'll have a good chance. Any two big lineups will get run off the court imo. Love and Thompson, Love and Frye, etc. None of that will work. Lebron is hopefully not willing to do this, but he should play a ton of 4 this series matched up with Draymond. And if Lue really has balls he'll play Delly, Kyrie, JR, Shump all together with Lebron at 5 against Draymond.
As a Warriors fan I worry this series will be much, much tougher than some of the odds / models are projecting. I think the Cavs have some decent small lineups if Lebron is willing to play in the front court.
Ninja Scooter
Member
That leaves them with zero rim protection, and probably rebounding since Love will have to account for protecting the paint. Curry and Klay will feast at the rim against that lineup. All of those shots thst were missed or altered due to the length of Durant, Adams and Ibaka will look a lot easier.
Fried Food
Banned
Looking forward to following along with GAF during the game. Last year was funny
I agree it won't be as effective as what the Thunder had, but I think it's their best shot. Any two bigs lineups will get lit up imo. Love or Thompson or Frye trying to defend Draymond could be a bloodbath, especially in the P&R with Curry or if he's screening off the ball for Klay. Think it has to be Lebron matching up with Draymond.
I think this is a lot of what the matchup combos for Cleveland come down to when looking at effectiveness.
No matter how you slice it, nothing looks as daunting for GS as what OKC threw at them.
It'll come down to LeBron outshining everyone else on the court, I think.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Cavs stole two games last year by playing big (Mozgoff and T Thompson). OKC won 3 doing the same. You can't beat the Warriors playing their game, you have to abuse them on the boards and basically hope that Steph/Klay have more 3/10 games than 7/10 games from 3 point land.
There's really nothing you can do if they go 30/55 like they did the last 2 games of the OKC series, that shit is completely broken.
I think Lebron along with Frye or Love at the 4/5 gives Cavs the best chance to win.
But the real question is how do they balance the scoring with the perimeter defense. If the Cavs are going to win Lue has to figure that shit out quick. Smith has played pretty good defense in the playoffs so far but Kyrie is still a liability. I don't think they can play a ton of minutes with Smith and Shump/Delly.
He better figure that shit out ASAP though. You can't let GS get comfortable and get a lead. They just don't lost once they are up.
I think the Thunder series might hurt the Cavs. They obviously need game 1 or 2 and their best bet was probably game 1 where they just blitzed the fuck out of the Warriors. But after what the Warriors just went through I figure they are going to be ready for the Cavs best shot and I predict that other then Bron it will be the rest of the Cavs that will have to rise up and match the Warriors intensity and focus.
But the real question is how do they balance the scoring with the perimeter defense. If the Cavs are going to win Lue has to figure that shit out quick. Smith has played pretty good defense in the playoffs so far but Kyrie is still a liability. I don't think they can play a ton of minutes with Smith and Shump/Delly.
He better figure that shit out ASAP though. You can't let GS get comfortable and get a lead. They just don't lost once they are up.
I think the Thunder series might hurt the Cavs. They obviously need game 1 or 2 and their best bet was probably game 1 where they just blitzed the fuck out of the Warriors. But after what the Warriors just went through I figure they are going to be ready for the Cavs best shot and I predict that other then Bron it will be the rest of the Cavs that will have to rise up and match the Warriors intensity and focus.
I'm just not sure Cleveland has the bigs to do it. Steven Adams and Ibaka are super athletic for their size and sound defensively, a world of difference compared to Frye and Love. Cleveland also wasn't a big offensive rebounding team this year compared to OKC (who led the league in oreb rate all year).
I could be totally wrong, but two big lineups will be letting Kerr off the hook imo. Just don't think any of Cleveland's bigs will hold up.
Agreed. Durant at 4 on defense threw Draymond completely out of wack for most of the last series, and that was on a cross match. Lebron straight up playing the 4 could give him similar fits, and when that happens GS offense gets disrupted. Not completely, but somewhat. Like I said, I could be totally wrong, but I think it could work for them.
edit: hell, even if Draymond is playing center match Lebron up with him and hide Love on Barnes. Whatever you can do to match Lebron up with Draymond.
MushroomSamba
Member
I'm thinking the same. Their best shot is to dominate the boards, get second shot opportunities, and reduce GS possessions. As improved as their offense is, trying to win a shootout with GS still doesn't seem like a plan for success.
Gully State
Member
Yeah Durant with his rim defense really threw off the Warriors. I used to think Durant was a defensive liability but that series made me eat my words. You expect Adams and Ibaka to defend the rim but having Durant erase layups just completely discombobulated the whole team, especially Draymond. Which leads me to wonder how much of that does Lebron have left? He used to be consistently good at chase down blocks earlier in his career. Maybe he might be able to channel that for 4-7 games..
Yeah, I am hoping he can't keep that up. He's dropped off quite a bit defensively from his Miami days. And will he be willing to bang inside for an entire series with Draymond?
He did it in game 6 for sure.
But he doesn't in most games. He doesn't seem to get tired so I feel like he could do it for an entire series if required.
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