DeepEnigma
Gold Member
I had vapor chambers from card makers on my decade old GeForce 4's.
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I had vapor chambers from card makers on my decade old GeForce 4's.
IceManCat
Member
Will this allow them to dispense higher heat ? Ive been seeing a lot of talk about the MHZ speed and CU count affecting heat. Im wondering if vapor cooling allows them to push for more
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
It's not easy to find the IHS estimates for X1X. I was reading another article about Scorpio on some tech site and he spilled some numbers from their cost analysis. Could have said "it adds additional $15 for vapor chamber + $15 for Hovis". I'll find it, but not now I'm lazy.
Regardless, the vapor chamber setup and the whole Xbox One X design is something I'd expect to see repeated. Probably 175-200W total system power consumption. Don't get me wrong, the X1X has an awesome cooling system. Navi 10 5700-series cards are using one on 180W and 225W TBP GPUs, but that's not stuffed into a tiny box. Either way 180W quiet, compact, powerful consoles are well within grasp, imo.
SonGoku
Member
So 56CUs (enabled) then
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Mass Shift
Member
S
I think most are taking the same approach. But it was still amazing how some were accurately able to predict what was on the Scorpio mobo from that early render. Even the size of the APU was deducted from that render.
MS had to know people would try it again, and they didn't even provide a render this time. So who knows?
I think most are taking the same approach. But it was still amazing how some were accurately able to predict what was on the Scorpio mobo from that early render. Even the size of the APU was deducted from that render.
MS had to know people would try it again, and they didn't even provide a render this time. So who knows?
jonnyp
Member
Well, I think there'll be room for a few games on the cache, your most recently played ones. If you start a game that is not cached it will hopefully just load a little longer in the start and continue loading onto the cache while playing until the core data is cached on the SSD.
I just cannot see how they're gonna be able to sell us a Zen 2, Navi 3700 something AND 1TB of PCIE 4.0 NVMe SSD storage for 399 USD.
bitbydeath
Member
TLZ
Banned
They're going to have vape cooling
farmerboy
Member
LordOfChaos
Member
That's why many are thinking it would be bumped to 499. A hybrid setup would be doable, I'm just wondering out loud how it would be set up. Particularly someone like me with gaming ADHD lol, each infrequent game used hitting sub 100MB/s for perhaps 100+GB games next gen seems like it's not something you could overcome with a small pause at the start and streaming it into the SSD, it would take moving substantially more of it over.
It also looks like NAND is set to meet HDD costs within the next gens lifespan.
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CrustyBritches
Gold Member
We’ll have you up to 14TF in no time.
ABrokenToy
Member
I can't wait for Decima engine on PS5. Dear lord it's going to be amazing. These are going to be amazing systems on both fronts.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
I count 14 people in the background with one walking away, so 13TF confirmed.
I'll make my prediction :
PS5 :
Die size 315-350mm2
Zen2 @3.2GHz
Navi 8.3-9TF (36/40CUs @1.8GHz boost)
20GB of GDDR6
Some sort of RT hardware
1TB SSD
500$
Scarlett
Die size 360-390mm2
Zen2 @3.2GHz
Navi 9TF - 9.5TF (44/48CUs @1.6GHz)
20GB GDDR6
Hardware RT
1TB SSD
500$ maybe more
Oh, TFs are expectred and optimistic numbers. Could even go lower then that.
PS5 :
Die size 315-350mm2
Zen2 @3.2GHz
Navi 8.3-9TF (36/40CUs @1.8GHz boost)
20GB of GDDR6
Some sort of RT hardware
1TB SSD
500$
Scarlett
Die size 360-390mm2
Zen2 @3.2GHz
Navi 9TF - 9.5TF (44/48CUs @1.6GHz)
20GB GDDR6
Hardware RT
1TB SSD
500$ maybe more
Oh, TFs are expectred and optimistic numbers. Could even go lower then that.
Oh its alive and well. Look at this graph from AMDs official docs.
Navi @ 9.75TF tops (if boost was running 100% all the time) is on average >30% faster then Vega at 10.5TF. So, faster then Vega 64 as well.
This means Navi with 8.5-9TF would be like putting 12TF Vega card in closed box. People wanted Nvidia flops, and they got them. No reason to hang on pure numbers when flop v flop, Navi beats Vega by >30%.
This is also why I predicted no more then 9TF. Because this will likely be a sweet spot for consoles between TDP/die size. Full Navi10 is too hot for consoles, they will need to cut some CUs or get few more and downclock it.
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SonGoku
Member
Yes, gpus with big heatsinks and 3 fans tend to do better (noise and temps) than vapor coolers
Yep much more than traditional console coolers (shit coolers)
Most likely but i hope they go with a big ass heatskink and 3 fan design caseThey're going to have vape cooling
You'll push more heat/power through a 36/40 CU chip clocked 1800-1900Mhz to reach 8-9TF than a 56CU chip @1540Mhz = 11TF
That and 4k + RT is why stand firm on my prediction of 11TF+
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CUs 50+? Lots of talk about big die size.
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demigod
Member
Oh its alive and well. Look at this graph from AMDs official docs.
Navi @ 9.75TF tops (if boost was running 100% all the time) is on average >30% faster then Vega at 10.5TF. So, faster then Vega 64 as well.
This means Navi with 8.5-9TF would be like putting 12TF Vega card in closed box. People wanted Nvidia flops, and they got them. No reason to hang on pure numbers when flop v flop, Navi beats Vega by >30%.
This is also why I predicted no more then 9TF. Because this will likely be a sweet spot for consoles between TDP/die size. Full Navi10 is too hot for consoles, they will need to cut some CUs or get few more and downclock it.
It’s possible they might just be 8TF navi but the idiots that were lowballing the ps5T TF were talking about AMD’s GCN TF.
Depends entirely on what CU/GHz sweetspot is. If Sony would rather cool smaller chip a bit harder then pay much more for bigger chip (yields of 56CU chip would be terrible on 7nm) its entirely up to them.
You have to add RT hardware somewhere, so 16 more CUs then full 251mm2 Navi is out of question IMO. We might see 44, 48 TOPS, but few will naturally be deactivated.
Seriously, we had same story back in 2013 when best performing console (PS4) had 60% less TF of top AMD card.
Nothing we know points to chip with more TF then Navi10 XT, really nothing. 56CU chip (4CUs disabled) @1500GHz would be 10.5TF and it would be 310mm2 just for GPU part. Not gonna happen, quote me on that.
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Dear reeee-,
Take one in the morning with breakfast.
Yours truly,
Crusty XOXOXO
P.S.- Red rover, red rover, send AnthonyHopkins right over. Hahahaha.
And we already got SpinningBirdKick, who's like the Agent 47 of his particular iteration. The rich get richer.
Take one in the morning with breakfast.
Yours truly,
Crusty XOXOXO
P.S.- Red rover, red rover, send AnthonyHopkins right over. Hahahaha.
And we already got SpinningBirdKick, who's like the Agent 47 of his particular iteration. The rich get richer.
Not really, seems to me people are going "10TF or bust" for either console. Navi or Vega, people dont care as long as its 10TF.
My personal opinion is that 12.9TF and "Almost 13TF dev kits" that Benji shared on twitter where related to Vega card used to emulate ~8.5TF Navi + hw RT that will be used in retail console but Sony obviously couldnt get chip out so early when dev kits where sent (January).
SonGoku
Member
To make a 64CU APU (RT silicon included) it would take 385 mm2
For reference Launch PS4 was roughly 350 mm2 for $399
Big Navi might go all the way up to 80CUs possibly hitting 16TF
Also 6nm allows to shrink 7nm designs with minimal investment/retooling in 2021. Quick cost reduction that wasn't available back when PS4 launched
Another big factor supporting a big die is that starting with 7nm the node transitions biggest gains are in the density increase not so much for power reductions. Long term a bigger chip design will go through more cost reductions than a smaller chip clocked higher.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
A lot of people are hoping for 12tf.
As for me, whatever system can pump out solid looking 4k at 60 fps is gold.
As for me, whatever system can pump out solid looking 4k at 60 fps is gold.
How much would 64CU part cost? Obviously few CUs will be deactivated. 380-390mm2 die will be SUPER expensive at 7nm, definitely palpable compared to 348mm2 PS4 die at 28nm.
Even still, with 64CU (or 60 active ones) you would really struggle to get above 10TF just duo to TDP.
For comparison sake. Full Pitcairn was 20CUs at 1GHz, using 175W. Full Navi XT is 40CU at 1.9GHz and 225W.
Sony went with cut down Pitcairn+ 200MHz downclock for PS4. How are they gonna fit GPU that uses 30% more watts then GPU that they cut down and underclocked for PS4? I am standing by my predictions, 40-48CUs at 1.5-1.8GHz for 8-9TF of power. Absolute max.
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Imtjnotu
Member
I don't think Samsung has any 20gb chips. If they go with the 18Gb/s chips they can do 16 or 24
SonGoku
Member
More expensive sure but a $500 price and Sony willingness to take a small short term loss will offset that
As 7nm matures and yields improve costs will go down, we still have a year left
You must disable 8CUs at a time on bigger chips (4 SEs)
5700XT clocks all the way up to 1950Mhz
56 CU with a lower voltage to sustain 1540 Mhz = 11TF will consume less power
Thats how
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Insane Metal
Member
I don't even read anymore... I'll wait for leaks. It's pointless to keep just predicting stuff.Three pages of nothing new
Why did I read?
SonGoku
Member
Three pages of nothing new
Why did I read?
Stop pretending, I know both of you are like:
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Insane Metal
Member
Idk what you're talking about. I didn't even read your last posts in this page.
Imtjnotu
Member
The ps4 was somewhere around $150. That leaves a good 300 for ram and cooling.
Uhd disk drives are only $20
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
Idk what you're talking about. I didn't even read your last posts in this page.
Burrito Bandito
Banned
Until they release another x five years from now at a higher price and you hear morons patting themselves on the back saying "Microsoft engineers are Uber gods, look they created the most powerful console in the world" forgetting that duhhh its the latest console released years after lol
in all fairness, the X was art in console form. The Surface guys know what they are doing and even invented entirely new processes and techniques to build the thing. Its an amazing machine regardless.
Im not sure if the same team is building the Scarlett or not but if they are it will be the best built and quality machine out of the two, no doubt in my mind. PS5 could still inch it our in pure TFLOPs though.
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Negotiator
Member
I still don't like the idea of caching, only because it means more tear and wear for those precious QLC NAND cells. Even worse if it's soldered and non-replaceable!
Few people will know or remember this, but PS3 also had a dedicated 2GB HDD cache partition for BD-ROM games.
As you can guess, it was overwritten way too often, which meant more tear and wear for that flaky Blu-Ray laser (it had more trouble reading dual-layer discs).
So yeah, 1TB M.2 NVMe SSD is gonna be dirt cheap for a $499 console in late 2020, worry not.
A pure SSD solution (2-4GB/s) will also be needed to fill a modest-sized but fast unified DRAM pool (24GB) in no time. Both companies want to minimize friction (huge loading times is a deterrent for many people, which hurts engagement).
If they go with a hybrid SSD/HDD solution, I can see them raising the DRAM up to 32GB and downgrading the GDDR6 bus to 256-bit (no bueno).
ArabianPrynce
Member
Dont see why the doubt for SSD. Mark cerny himself stated it would be the fast SSD so far and their goal is to have seamless experience. I dont see the benifit in outright lying, maybe if he used vague language to describe the SSD i would agree but to directly state its the fastest is something else imo
SonGoku
Member
Not to take away from the surface team, they did a wonderful job designing for a [premium console
But PS4 has sorcerer designers that maximized space efficiency for maximum profits.
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
So yeah, 1TB M.2 NVMe SSD is gonna be dirt cheap for a $499 console in late 2020, worry not.
If any company wants to win easy brownie points with customers then they could give a larger SSD as standard.
The (wo)man on the street probably doesn't know or care about TF.
But they all know how fast the HD has filled up with games this generation.
A 2TB vs 1TB drive is a solid USP.
SonGoku
Member
Good idea
500GB model $399
1TB model $449
2TB model $499
It would promote people buying the more profitable $500 system
Gamernyc78
Banned
And Sony has for the most part done well with hardware. I don't get this narrative tht Microsoft is better at it, its a fallacy.
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SpinningBirdKick
Banned
Nah. As standard.
Less friction = more purchases.
Alternatively: "I really want to buy Gears 19 but I've still got Halo 12 stinking up the SSD that I haven't completed yet and I'm out of storage space. I guess I'll hold off that purchase..."
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Negotiator
Member
500GB SSD will be slower than 1-2TB ones, which is gonna affect the baseline reading speed/IOPs.
They'll just offer 1 SKU at $499. Not sure if it's gonna be profitable day 1 (I want them to subsidize it with their PSN profits and not skimp on APU die size).
Any estimations about 7nm wafer costs in late 2020 and how much a hefty ~400mm2 chip would cost?
SonGoku
Member
I agree but considering 2TB is going to be $500 anyways why not have a 500GB model to hit that $400 marketing checkbox
Why?
I read 15% increase over same size at 28nm back then, not sure how accurate it is
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TLZ
Banned
I come into the thread like that every time, hoping something juicy and real got leaked. But then it turns into this:Stop pretending, I know both of you are like:
Negotiator
Member
SSDs are basically arrays of NAND chips. The more flash chips you have, the faster the SSD is (assuming the controller can handle it).
A 2TB SSD is probably too much, even with late 2020 prices. 1TB will be the sweet spot and 2TB will be left for Pro models/future SKUs.
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