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[Katana_Strikes]

Promising if unspectacular start for Splatoon. Although I'm not sure any realistic person expected much more than that, so it's done alright after 2 days. We'll see next month on how strong it is following the initial launch.

Hardware is very quiet this month. All I feel are under performing where they should be. WiiU is dire, especially in a month where it had a fairly decent release that I assume will have been well marketed. The XBone should be doing better, especially when it's cheaper than the PS4 and had The Witcher 3 come out for it which was marketed exclusively by MS. The PS4 also should be doing better but the price is holding it back now, just like last month. I know all manufacturers want to ride out a high price as much as possible but it's also detrimental to boosting the userbase further and therefor hurting software sales.

On to next month, PS4 should have a nice pick up in sales thanks to Batman and the Limited Edition system, so Sony will have weathered a sales decline thanks to that. However, I do wonder if MS may play some sort of promotion like they did with Destiny and do a free game promo with the XBone to try and win extra sales that way and not get completely steam rolled. They really are having trouble selling the system in the face of the PS4 despite being cheaper. Kinect wasn't the big thing they were hoping and built the machine on and now it's dead, there's just little to differentiate the system against the PS4 which is more widely seen as the go-to console thanks to higher spec and better multiplats. Something MS just are never going to live down.

 

[Kathian]

So dead on arrival, then? No way a dedicated handheld like this succeeds.

Tablets are being over taken by larger phones anyway. People calling for a tablet device I feel misunderstand the market. It wouldn't really work as fundamentally it does not play to Nintendo's strengths and will not be as competitive as other tablets.

Better to be number one in a shrinking pond than leave that pond to be nowhere in another larger but still shrinking pond.

Nintendo needs to retain its underlying strengths.

 

[vin-buc]

It still boggles my mind that people think NX is anything other than a portable/handheld, which is unlikely to be able to handle WiiU ports without significant downgrades, which isn't going to happen with ZeldaU. The WiiU successor will probably announce/launch a year or so afterwards, depending how much effort Nintendo needs to put into the NX to get it selling.

I can't be bothered to dig the figures out, again, but the release pattern of Nintendo handhelds is pretty regular, and if NX isn't a dedicated portable/handheld then we're due another 3DS revision to be announced fairly soon for Japan.

I'm using NX to mean next Nintendo home console. Whatever it's called. I can't see them waiting until 2017 to release it.

 

[Fdkn]

Not for PS4.

over 1800k is a terrible number indeed.

 

[Opiate]

Lol really? Haha that's too funny.

A rather big website, to boot.

He's managed to stay relevant because NPD charges for their sales figures and can be pretty conservative about what they release and who they release it to, in comparison to something like Media Create in Japan which freely releases their data on a weekly (not even monthly) basis.

So it gave room for someone offering free data to grow, even if that data was totally bogus. Ioi filled that role.

 

[allan-bh]

over 1800k is a terrible number indeed.

Well, I not used the word terrible, but was just a good holiday, far from impressive.

 

[GobFather]

Well, I not used the word terrible, but was just a good holiday, far from impressive.

A good holiday sale is still a good holiday sale.

 

[Mpl90]

A rather big website, to boot.

He's managed to stay relevant because NPD charges for their sales figures and can be pretty conservative about what they release and who they release it to, in comparison to something like Media Create in Japan which freely releases their data on a weekly (not even monthly) basis.

So it gave room for someone offering free data to grow, even if that data was totally bogus. Ioi filled that role.

What's even sadder is that there's people paying for Premium Membership in order to get more datas. It's like paying to listen a podcast just for E3 "leaks".

 

[KillerSloth]

A rather big website, to boot.

He's managed to stay relevant because NPD charges for their sales figures and can be pretty conservative about what they release and who they release it to, in comparison to something like Media Create in Japan which freely releases their data on a weekly (not even monthly) basis.

So it gave room for someone offering free data to grow, even if that data was totally bogus. Ioi filled that role.

Wow you are talking about chartz right? That's nuts sounds like a scam.

 

[allan-bh]

A good holiday sale is still a good holiday sale.

Of course, but even original Xbox had good holidays, so it's nothing major to take note.

With exception of november Xbox One sales, holiday 2014 was normal and I must say kinda disappointing for PS4 considering it's the market leader.

 

[Crema]

Yes, I'm goimg to exclude the Wii. Why? Because much like Tickle Me Elmo, it was a fad. A phenomenon. Yeah, it sold gangbusters........and then died a sudden and horrible death. There will never be another like it. There was nothing like that before it. It was a complete and utter anomaly. NORMAL console sales are what you see when you remove the Wii from the equation. And when you compare the new normal to the old, things are fine. They're just fine.

This is revisionist history with no factual basis. The Wii came out in 06 and sold 236k in May 2011 according to NPD. Some fad.

 

[Opiate]

Wow you are talking about chartz right? That's nuts sounds like a scam.

Right. The site's track record is (to say the least) very spotty, but in comparison to paying NPD thousands of dollars just to see their data, many people chose "bad but free" over "pretty good but super expensive." If NPD had operated like Media Create or Famitsu in Japan or Chart Track in the EU -- which provide extensive data for free, often on a weekly basis -- Chartz never would have gotten off the ground.

 

[Ombala]

No hardware numbers yet?

 

[airmangataosenai]

The problem is people phrasing this in terms of:
PS4 + XB1 versus PS3 + 360 last gen, which is ridiculous.

Even if you accept the ludicrous claim that all Wii sales last gen should be excluded because reasons, what you should be comparing is:

[GC+PS2+XB+PS3+X360] versus [PS3+X360+WiiU+PS4+XBone]
because that represents the market.



jesus christ that graph doesnt represent the wii, it represents sustained sales versus burst.

Why is it so hard for you to understand this point? It's pretty simple and sound logic: Nintendo's decline in the market has little to no impact on anyone other than Nintendo. The kind of third party software that sold well on the Wii U in general was family software, this is the one section of the market which will see a hit on consoles. Just Dance and the like will never again be the mega franchise is was 5 years ago. Aside from that.... nothing really. People used to argue that Wii was good supplemental income for studios for cheap cash-in software, but that same strategy just migrated to mobile. Most third party companies are-reporting strong profits, there is no decline if you count mobile.

So what way does Nintendo's decline affect anyone? Who specifically in the industry has taken a hit thanks to Nintendo's decline? Ubisoft developed the aforementioned Just Dance and still manages massive profits despite abandoning Nintendo consoles. If the worst thing that comes out of your doomsday predictions are fewer games like Just Dance for consoles, I'd say that things are fine. We still have shovelware, it's just moved to a place where it's easier for us to ignore it.

If you count the Wii as a slice of the market but not the iPhone/Android then I'd say it's you who's being ridiculous. Nintendo themselves don't claim to be a part of the same market as the Xbox/Playstation.

 

[Opiate]

Why is it so hard for you to understand this point? It's pretty simple and sound logic: Nintendo's decline in the market has little to no impact on anyone other than Nintendo. The kind of third party software that sold well on the Wii U in general was family software, this is the one section of the market which will see a hit on consoles. Just Dance and the like will never again be the mega franchise is was 5 years ago. Aside from that.... nothing really. People used to argue that Wii was good supplemental income for studios for cheap cash-in software, but that same strategy just migrated to mobile. Most third party companies are-reporting strong profits, there is no decline if you count mobile.

So what way does Nintendo's decline affect anyone? Who specifically in the industry has taken a hit thanks to Nintendo's decline? Ubisoft developed the aforementioned Just Dance and still manages massive profits despite abandoning Nintendo consoles. If the worst thing that comes out of your doomsday predictions are fewer games like Just Dance for consoles, I'd say that things are fine. We still have shovelware, it's just moved to a place where it's easier for us to ignore it.

If you count the Wii as a slice of the market but not the iPhone/Android then I'd say it's you who's being ridiculous. Nintendo themselves don't claim to be a part of the same market as the Xbox/Playstation.

This notion is pretty absurd. The loss of the fastest growing, most profitable demographic in gaming (i.e. what is typically referred to as "casual gamers") is having a major effect on console gaming.

Losing them hurts badly. I think the issue isn't that Nintendo is some special market off on its own or that these people don't matter objectively, it's that lots of people here don't care about them, so to them they are invisible, even if they clearly matter.

It would be like if Chinese and Korean gamers just left PC gaming in droves. That would be a huge blow to the PC market -- that's billions of dollars in revenue each year -- but it would be a blow that was practically invisible if all you care about is Steam. It doesn't mean the person is right, mind you; they've got blinders on. They're only looking at what they personally care about and not the market more broadly. Those are very common blinders, as lots of people only look at the part of the market that they personally care about without considering the broader implications.

Casual gamers were part of the console market, and now they aren't. That's a really big deal.

 

[wildfire]

So what way does Nintendo's decline affect anyone?

Over a third of the top 30 selling software (all multimillions) were 3rd party games. It matters.

 

[airmangataosenai]

This notion is pretty absurd. The loss of the fastest growing, most profitable demographic in gaming (i.e. what is typically referred to as "casual gamers") is having a major effect on console gaming.

Losing them hurts badly. I think the issue isn't that Nintendo is some special market off on its own or that these people don't matter objectively, it's that lots of people here don't care about them, so to them they are invisible, even if they clearly matter.

It would be like if Chinese and Korean gamers just left PC gaming in droves. That would be a huge blow to the PC market -- that's billions of dollars in revenue each year -- but it would be a blow that was practically invisible if all you care about is Steam. It doesn't mean the person is right, mind you; they've got blinders on. They're only looking at what they personally care about and not the market more broadly.

Casual gamers were part of the console market, and now they aren't. That's a really big deal.

What difference does it make whether a casual player buys a minigame collection on his iPhone rather than his Wii though?

Again, the argument was always that even if we didn't play those games, them selling on the Wii supplemented game development expenditures for the publishers. They're still getting that income, maybe even doing better than back then actually. And no, I don't think I'm being obtuse. In what way does it impact Sony, Microsoft, or a third party if the Wii's casual userbase moved to mobile?

 

[Opiate]

Here, I'll frame it this way so people can see the problem: how would you suggest that the console market grow again in the future?

The console market grew consistently for 20+ years, from the NES generation right through the Wii generation. Every generation saw higher hardware and software sales than the generation which preceded it, often by huge amounts.

This generation is poised to be the first generation that breaks this trend, and will likely break it significantly; it's entirely possible this generation will be 30% smaller than last generation, or even 40%.

In the future, how would you recommend consoles get back to a growth trend? Or are they permanently relegated to a corner of the market now? Because if you agree with the latter, then that's what we're talking about.

 

[Opiate]

What difference does it make whether a casual player buys a minigame collection on his iPhone rather than his Wii though?

Because one is a console and the other isn't? We're talking about the future health of the console market, here.

Just a decade ago -- less, even -- consoles seemed poised to be the clear center of the gaming market in the future, with consistent growth and dominant market share. Now we're talking about them simply being 1/3 or 1/4 of the market and hopefully stabilizing at that point without hemorrhaging marketshare further. That is an enormous shift in outlook in a decade, and the difference are these casual gamers the Wii attracted but which none of the consoles today seem capable of appealing to.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Right. The site's track record is (to say the least) very spotty, but in comparison to paying NPD thousands of dollars just to see their data, many people chose "bad but free" over "pretty good but super expensive." If NPD had operated like Media Create or Famitsu in Japan or Chart Track in the EU -- which provide extensive data for free, often on a weekly basis -- Chartz never would have gotten off the ground.

It really makes me wish that there's an NPD competitor so that the competition incentivizes offering data for free.

 

[allan-bh]

It really makes me wish that there's an NPD competitor so that the competition incentivizes offering data for free.

Also a company that make weekly reports instead of monthly.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Why is it so hard for you to understand this point? It's pretty simple and sound logic: Nintendo's decline in the market has little to no impact on anyone other than Nintendo. The kind of third party software that sold well on the Wii U in general was family software, this is the one section of the market which will see a hit on consoles. Just Dance and the like will never again be the mega franchise is was 5 years ago. Aside from that.... nothing really. People used to argue that Wii was good supplemental income for studios for cheap cash-in software, but that same strategy just migrated to mobile. Most third party companies are-reporting strong profits, there is no decline if you count mobile.

So what way does Nintendo's decline affect anyone? Who specifically in the industry has taken a hit thanks to Nintendo's decline? Ubisoft developed the aforementioned Just Dance and still manages massive profits despite abandoning Nintendo consoles. If the worst thing that comes out of your doomsday predictions are fewer games like Just Dance for consoles, I'd say that things are fine. We still have shovelware, it's just moved to a place where it's easier for us to ignore it.

If you count the Wii as a slice of the market but not the iPhone/Android then I'd say it's you who's being ridiculous. Nintendo themselves don't claim to be a part of the same market as the Xbox/Playstation.

Quoting myself:


SCE just had their worst year since 1997 hardware-wise:

And not only because the PSP died (consoles only chart):

*Some labels are off
Edit: Note that Sonys FY32015 is missing PS3 numbers, should be at 17.9 million, can't change the chart currently because I'm at work.

Sony cut their sales in half since 2003, despite the booming sales of the PS4.



Fact is, everybody profited from the large boom in the last generation and noone was able to hold it.

 

[anexanhume]

Here, I'll frame it this way so people can see the problem: how would you suggest that the console market grow again in the future?

The console market grew consistently for 20+ years, from the NES generation right through the Wii generation. Every generation saw higher hardware and software sales than the generation which preceded it, often by huge amounts.

This generation is poised to be the first generation that breaks this trend, and will likely break it significantly; it's entirely possible this generation will be 30% smaller than last generation, or even 40%.

In the future, how would you recommend consoles get back to a growth trend? Or are they permanently relegated to a corner of the market now? Because if you agree with the latter, then that's what we're talking about.

They can't ignore the growth of mobile. Making it easy to interface with mobile helps, but I think it's very important console makers find a way for their generation to hit a mass market price like $150 or $100. We know PS2 sold gobs at that price, yet we can't get Gen 7 under $200.

 

[lwilliams3]

Because one is a console and the other isn't? We're talking about the future health of the console market, here.

Just a decade ago -- less, even -- consoles seemed poised to be the clear center of the gaming market in the future, with consistent growth and dominant market share. Now we're talking about them simply being 1/3 or 1/4 of the market and hopefully stabilizing at that point without hemorrhaging marketshare further. That is an enormous shift in outlook in a decade, and the difference are these casual gamers the Wii attracted but which none of the consoles today seem capable of appealing to.

Yes. The marketshare for consoles is targeted on shrinking, and it has basically collapsed in Japan. There will be some interesting consequences for this if this trend continues.

 

[twothunder]

Retail sales without digital. Okay.

Lets see. Witcher 3 at 700K is good but I did expect it to do better. Guess the 4 million news raised my expectations.

136K for Splatoon in it's first 2 two days. I expected 100K or slightly below that.
So. That's good compared to my expectations. Hope it keeps selling.

Shin Megami Tensei and Mario puzzle and dragons did forgettable numbers. Nothing impressive.
Not that I expected much.

pCARS (all platforms) ~ 60.5k. That's pretty bad. I assume most sales are digital and in Europe because of the 1 million sales news.


Hardware. Wii-U abysmal as usual. Ps4 and Xone not impressing either.
Pretty "meh" month overall.

 

[Mister Megative]

Not for PS4.

........are you serious?

 

[Mister Megative]

Wow you are talking about chartz right? That's nuts sounds like a scam.

It absolutely is. ioi comes up with his numbers using the following formula:

Guessing+Nothing Else = Chartzzzzzz

 

[SnowFlakeCake]

NA seems to matter less and less as the years go by in terms of gaming revenue, these are pretty shit numbers. Considering a game like Witcher 3 did a few million worldwide, just managing 700k in NA and being kind 1.3M including digital sales is pretty darn small. Also we have had press releases of the PS4 selling through 20 million or so worldwide and NA sales were no more than 7-8 million if I recall correctly.

Even for consoles, PAL seems to be the real money maker.

Spoiler

Could be completely wrong though, only real follow sales of GT and a few other games at most :/

 

[Mister Megative]

Of course, but even original Xbox had good holidays, so it's nothing major to take note.

With exception of november Xbox One sales, holiday 2014 was normal and I must say kinda disappointing for PS4 considering it's the market leader.

I completely disagree. 1.8 million is outstanding.

 

[EGM1966]

Here, I'll frame it this way so people can see the problem: how would you suggest that the console market grow again in the future?

The console market grew consistently for 20+ years, from the NES generation right through the Wii generation. Every generation saw higher hardware and software sales than the generation which preceded it, often by huge amounts.

This generation is poised to be the first generation that breaks this trend, and will likely break it significantly; it's entirely possible this generation will be 30% smaller than last generation, or even 40%.

In the future, how would you recommend consoles get back to a growth trend? Or are they permanently relegated to a corner of the market now? Because if you agree with the latter, then that's what we're talking about.

I don't see the console market growing again with boxes in line with the current model that's for sure.

I could see videogame software growing and the number of devices growing if handled correctly but traditional consoles seems unlikely.

Too much device and experience consumption fragmentation IMHO.

 

[Mister Megative]

Because one is a console and the other isn't? We're talking about the future health of the console market, here.

Just a decade ago -- less, even -- consoles seemed poised to be the clear center of the gaming market in the future, with consistent growth and dominant market share. Now we're talking about them simply being 1/3 or 1/4 of the market and hopefully stabilizing at that point without hemorrhaging marketshare further. That is an enormous shift in outlook in a decade, and the difference are these casual gamers the Wii attracted but which none of the consoles today seem capable of appealing to.

I think regardless, there will always be a place for dedicated consoles in the living room. I don't see that trend ending ANYTIME soon. Now, will these be boxes that play discs or will everything be streaming? Will VR become a thing? I don't know, but I fully expect a PS5 and a follow-up Xbox to both A: exist and B: operate much differently.

 

[allan-bh]

I completely disagree. 1.8 million is outstanding.

Outstanding is a strong word for sell less than 2 million in november and december combined.

Solid sales, nothing more.

 

[Jamix012]

I completely disagree. 1.8 million is outstanding.

Compared to previous gens? Not overly impressive.

Overall the bright hope of this gen is the growth in the non-Japan and non-US regions. Perhaps next gen they will grow even further and help allieviate the problems with Japanese and US sales. PS4 has been selling pretty well off the back of this despite a dismal performance in Japan and a merely decent performance in the US.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

I can't explain again what happened in the second part of 360's life that made it sell better than the first half, and that is an highly unusual phenomenon, that can be repeated that easily, alongisde its looong lifespan. Someone else, do it for me. ZhugeEX, I summon you to do it! Vena, you instead post that damn Wii U Only All-Time eShop Chart, for splatting reasons. That's my command.

In addition to ZhugeEX's wise Kinect assumption... Maybe the RRoD? By then people's early consoles were getting totaled and needed replacing.

Just a theory.

 

[OléGunner]

They can't ignore the growth of mobile. Making it easy to interface with mobile helps, but I think it's very important console makers find a way for their generation to hit a mass market price like $150 or $100. We know PS2 sold gobs at that price, yet we can't get Gen 7 under $200.

A price cut will no doubt give a boost. A massive one at that.

Overall though, like you've alluded too, mobile has swallowed a significant segment of the casual market that once upon a time owned a console a few years ago.

And I don't see how any of the manufacturers bring them back en masse.
Even stuff like VR I believe, can't pries them away from candy crush, game of war etc.

Ultimately, the video game market is headed for an inevitable shrink, where us hardcore gamers will be milked harder for every dollar by studios and console makers to remain profitable.

 

[KingSnake]

I just hope that the ones that don't care about the casuals and the mobile gaming and think everything is nice and shinny in the console market in isolation didn't complain about Konami.

 

[Doctor Professional]

Anybody else find it a little, strange, that the recent Amazon monthly update has Xbox One ahead of PS4?

I suppose XBox One was increasing more than the PS4 was, despite PS4 being higher in the actual hourly chart, this makes sense in most cases with how Amazon works, but a bit confusing for June.

 

[Majestad]

It would be crazy if top 3 next month is:

1) Batman
2) Witcher
3) Mortal Kombat

WB is gonna be swimming in money.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

They can't ignore the growth of mobile. Making it easy to interface with mobile helps, but I think it's very important console makers find a way for their generation to hit a mass market price like $150 or $100. We know PS2 sold gobs at that price, yet we can't get Gen 7 under $200.

Yeah, consoles need to follow the price drop trajectories (regular or yearly drops) they formerly had in the generations before last, where they experimented and successfully kept the price points higher while bundling in greater-capacity hard drives and games. The mass market that was there to buy in last generation, thanks in large part to Wii bumping everything up, have been sated with mobile offerings for cheaper electronic entertainment. It doesn't help that this generation's software largely sucks in terms of fresh next-gen experiences when we keep getting HD port-ups and familiar sequels to already stale franchises. Digital Indies aren't visible enough to the larger market like their mid-tier predecessors were with decent-enough marketing budgets and experience around promoting themselves. A smaller, safer, and blander AAA landscape is what we have now and it's spending a lot of time reissuing old games that 'everyone' already bought before. There's just not enough investment into consoles going on and that's because there just aren't as many left in the arena that haven't gone belly-up or run off to mobile.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Well, I not used the word terrible, but was just a good holiday, far from impressive.

The iPhone thread is in OT.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Quoting myself:


SCE just had their worst year since 1997 hardware-wise:


And not only because the PSP died (consoles only chart):

*Some labels are off

Sony cut their sales in half since 2003, despite the booming sales of the PS4.
Where are you getting your figures for the console chart? Last


Fact is, everybody profited from the large boom in the last generation and noone was able to hold it.

Where are you getting your console numbers from? Sony sold 17.9 million consoles last fiscal year, not sub-15 million as your chart implies.

As you can clearly see, they are in the midst of a massive decline.

 

[bequietdrive]

Any solid Wii U hardware numbers yet then?

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Then everyone else, including the NPD group and major gaming outlets, are all being ridiculous. Because they're all comparing sales of the new boxes to their predecessors.

No they're not.
When the NPD Group says "Hardware is down YoY" they're not only talking about PS4 + WiiU + Xbone this year versus PS4 + WiiU + Xbone last year.

They are talking about ALL GAMING HARDWARE SOLD AT US RETAIL.
Whether you want to include it or not. they are talking about the last gen consoles sold. they are talking about the Ouya and the Shield. they are talking about the Vita TV.
ALL HARDWARE.

Why is it so hard for you to understand this point?

Just because I refute a point doesn't mean I don't understand it, and implying otherwise is churlish.

 

[Moneal]

Where are you getting your console numbers from? Sony sold 17.9 million consoles last fiscal year, not sub-15 million as your chart implies.

They prolly just used ps4 numbers, it helps the doom and gloom narrative.

 

[Opiate]

I think regardless, there will always be a place for dedicated consoles in the living room. I don't see that trend ending ANYTIME soon. Now, will these be boxes that play discs or will everything be streaming? Will VR become a thing? I don't know, but I fully expect a PS5 and a follow-up Xbox to both A: exist and B: operate much differently.

Absolutely, I don't mean to go from one extreme (everything is fine, nothing to see here) to the other (doooooooom, consoles will be dead soon). Consoles are contracting, but don't seem to be dying in the forseeable future.

I think we can find a middle ground here where we basically say, "Yes, there are significant problems with the console market right now, and they're worth talking about. However, that doesn't mean consoles are dying."

 

[Shadow_FFVI]

I don't think Sony will cut PS4's price until there is an underwhelming month when there is a big game out (The Witcher 3 is not really a system seller). They're more focused on profitability and the sales of HW and SW are decent still. There's no reason to panic yet.

They don't have to wait.
The PS2 had a price cut when it was still selling wonderfully. Look how that worked out for it. They have to mantain that momentum.

 

[Doctor Professional]

I mean, to me, 136k is not "a bomb" or whatever, but is it really much more than that? I understand all your confounding factors-- new IP, essentially comatose platform-- but you also have some important counterweights. First of all, the audience buying games on the WiiU is incredibly hardcore, as evidenced by Nintendo's core software sales across the platform this year and last year. Second, there was a very significant advertising push. The 136k sounded familiar to me and I couldn't place where. Then I remembered-- that's 3Kish worse than Heavenly Sword did in September 2007 when the PS3 was essentially a zombie. I don't think that got nearly the same caveats when people were talking about its US performance. You've also got digital, so there's that, but there are also more Wii Us than there were PS3s in year 1 so I'll just consider that even.

I think it's not a catastrophic number. It's not a Wonderful 101 number. But I don't really think it's a good number or an impressive number (I'm surprised CosmicQueso said that). Given Nintendo's strength on the platform, it's basically what you'd require of the title for it to not be considered destined for B-tier Nintendo IP land.

I get that it's "TWO DAYS" of sales but we have this discussion for games all the time. Excepting all but the genre titans, you've still got a really significant chunk of LTD sales in your first couple of days due to the way game releases work.

It's 3 days of sales, I believe people keep saying two to try to downplay the fact we already have seen pretty much the extend of what the sales will be.

 

[Mister Megative]

Because one is a console and the other isn't? We're talking about the future health of the console market, here.

Just a decade ago -- less, even -- consoles seemed poised to be the clear center of the gaming market in the future, with consistent growth and dominant market share. Now we're talking about them simply being 1/3 or 1/4 of the market and hopefully stabilizing at that point without hemorrhaging marketshare further. That is an enormous shift in outlook in a decade, and the difference are these casual gamers the Wii attracted but which none of the consoles today seem capable of appealing to.

I see and respect what you're saying, but it's important to note that, whether some people want to admit it or not (not you), the Wii attracted a crowd of people who otherwise would NEVER have bought a home console. A good example is my little sister (who despises videogames) and my freaking grandmother (who doesn't understand what all this beeping is about). My sister bought a Wii for Wii Sports and that's IT. My grandmother bought one because hey, bowling! Both are currently gathering dust in a closet.

My point is, and I believe actual analysts (I'm actually an analyst myself, although NOT in the gaming industry) have made this point as well, that a significant portion of that crowd weren't even casual gamers.....they weren't gamers, period. A large portion moved on to iphones, tablets and in some cases, like my sister and grandmother, absolutely nothing. That share of the market was NEVER going to move on to another console, and what we're seeing, although it IS contraction, is simply the market returning to normal.

All respect in the world to those who think it's all bad news and I'm REALLY not trying to argue (I'm just thrilled to finally be a GAFer.....been waiting for a long time!). I just tend to agree with guys like Queso......when you look at the PS4 and X1's sales numbers in the proper context, things are incredibly encouraging. (I'm talking dedicated living room consoles here by the way, not handhelds......no one can argue tablets are running away with it there). In my mind, there's really nothing to be worried about. A few slow months peppered here and there do not a trend indicate, especially with their sales far eclipsing those of their predecessors. Take last holiday season.....as Opiate very smartly pointed out, sales weren't just good. They were SO good for both platforms they more than made up for a few slow months in the summer. And that was with most major releases being cross platform. This holiday, as guys like Zhuge and Bgamer have astutely pointed out, is going to be bigger. Consider the fact that almost every major release will be skipping 7th gen (barring CoD and TR, and I'm not convinced the last gen versions of TR will ship the same day, much like SoM and MKX). The MGS limited edition bundle is going to clean up (and I predict it will soar on 8th gen consoles). AC Syndicate. Halo 5. Battlefront. Uncharted Collection. Rainbow Six. Games that we don't even know about yet. Fallout on it's own, without any help, will sell consoles all month long. The effect will be compounded if we see a price drop from Sony and compelling bundles from both companies (I expect both will happen). I mean, with the installed base both systems already have, let's say this generation lasts as long as gen 7 and sales don't grow, they simply maintain the status quo during spring-summer and fall-winter. Both will STILL outsell their predecessors.

Now all this is moot if, as Opiate says, sales across the board are terrible this fall. But LOOK at those releases. As he already stated.......it ain't happening.

Except for the Wii U. Poor Nintendo....I hate seeing them flounder But I also blame them for promoting the Wii U in a confusing manner. Is it a console? A controller? Guys like us knew the difference (and even then it was confusing to some), but the common consumer looking to buy a new console for little seven year-old Billy? Why buy one of those Wii U controller things when I can buy him a PS or an Xbox? No one can argue than the name and the messaging hurt the console. Of course there are other factors for the Wii U's failure.....changing tastes, hunger for a more powerful box, a lack of third party support, etc.....but that makes for a much longer discussion.

But back to the other two. Maybe look at it this way: Liam Callahan is EXTREMELY positive and bullish about the state of the 8th generation of consoles and it's future. So are companies like Ubisoft and others, and guys like the ones I just mentioned have far greater insight into the market than most of us will ever have.

You should be, too. Cheer up, guys. Consoles (the big two, anyway) are fine, and they will continue to be fine

P.S. feel free to disagree guys, I enjoy the debate!

 

[KillerSloth]

This notion is pretty absurd. The loss of the fastest growing, most profitable demographic in gaming (i.e. what is typically referred to as "casual gamers") is having a major effect on console gaming.

Losing them hurts badly. I think the issue isn't that Nintendo is some special market off on its own or that these people don't matter objectively, it's that lots of people here don't care about them, so to them they are invisible, even if they clearly matter.

It would be like if Chinese and Korean gamers just left PC gaming in droves. That would be a huge blow to the PC market -- that's billions of dollars in revenue each year -- but it would be a blow that was practically invisible if all you care about is Steam. It doesn't mean the person is right, mind you; they've got blinders on. They're only looking at what they personally care about and not the market more broadly. Those are very common blinders, as lots of people only look at the part of the market that they personally care about without considering the broader implications.

Casual gamers were part of the console market, and now they aren't. That's a really big deal.

Good points and I don't think people are arguing losing the Wii casual markets is a good thing. What people take exception too is comparing the PS4 to the Wii. ..they really are targeting two different markets. The casual market is fickle and is moving to mobile. PS4 is aimed directly at the core gamer and it's sales are among the best ever for a game system.

There is nothing currently to pull the casuals back sadly. Maybe there will be eventually, maybe they are gone for good. That is not a good thing.

 

[phanphare]

It's 3 days of sales, I believe people keep saying two to try to downplay the fact we already have seen pretty much the extend of what the sales will be.

no people keep saying "two" because it was only tracked for 2 days. NPD did not track May 31.