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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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D

DasRaven

Member
effzee said:
Remind me again why this has turned into another left v right or democrats v republicans issue?
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It is an election year and since we have no vibrant national 3rd party anything an incumbent does will be used against them by their diametric opposition.
 
R

RoninChaos

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I don't believe that. Black people may be opposed to gay marriage, but they won't throw Obama under the bus if he comes out in favor of it. I'm not sure black turnout will be particularly good regardless considering the economy, but Obama will still get 95% of the vote. He'd have to divorce Michelle and marry a white woman to go below 90%
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That's not true in the south, bro. Minorities around here hate gay people. But they're usually bible thumpers too.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Clevinger said:
You're way too optimistic, my friend. I don't see Flake losing Arizona, as much as I'd like him to.
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Optimism is my thing, man.

I'm bullish on AZ simply because Obama is making a serious play there. The only reason he didn't in 2008 was because McCain had the home state effect going for him. Against Romney it's fair game.

That combined with Brewer's antics and Carmona's relative strength as a candidate, this might be the year Arizona voters decide to give them Democrats a chance.

That said, it's a bit of a stretch. NV, MA, and ME will all turn blue before AZ does. Democrats probably have about the same chance there as they would in IN against not-Dick Lugar.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
Kosmo said:
Until we have a reasonable grasp of what exactly happened, he's implying that something that requires "soul searching" (i.e. Trayvon was completely innocent and gunned down without cause) happened. We have no idea if that was the case or not.
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It's not a comment on guilt. The known circumstances are troubling and its reasons for happening something to "soul search" about whether or not Zimmerman committed a crime.
 
R

RoninChaos

Member
ClovingSteam said:
But bro, his school found a baggie with remnants of weed!
But bro, he had been suspended for 10 days!
But Bro...
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Yeah, I love those arguments. Because you got suspended, you must have been an animal, therefore you deserved to get shot.

Because you had a baggie with a lil' weed in it, you must have been a degenerate, so you deserved to get shot.

Chris. None of those reasons back up somebody shooting a fucking kid. Anybody that thinks those reasons are, in any way, a valid defense of what happened is an idiot.
 
P

planar1280

Banned
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...yeJ-zg?docId=e5cd9fa6127a459fb02a5bb16d42b500

Conservative deficit bill defeated

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House rejected a budget pushed by its most conservative members on Thursday and moved toward approval of a plan written by Republican leaders that would revamp Medicare, slice everything from food stamps to transportation and reject President Barack Obama's call to raise taxes on the rich.
The conservatives' package, defeated 285-136, featured sharp reductions in planned spending for Medicaid and other domestic programs. It claims to turn this year's $1.2 trillion federal deficit into a balanced budget in five years — which most analysts consider unachievable because few lawmakers would vote for the package's proposed cuts.
None of the competing budgets by Ryan, President Barack Obama or House Democrats claim to balance the budget within the next decade.
Underlining the growing influence of tea party and other conservative Republicans, a clear majority of GOP lawmakers voted for the conservatives' plan. It was defeated because virtually every Democrat voted against it.
The main GOP blueprint by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., was headed for all but certain House passage Thursday, mostly along party lines. It faces a demise that is just as sure in the Democratic-run Senate, which plans to ignore it, but the battle remains significant because of the clarity with which it contrasts the two parties' budgetary visions for voters.
Republicans were focused on sharper deficit reduction and starkly less government than Democrats wanted and were proposing to lower income tax rates while erasing many unspecified tax breaks. Obama and Democrats were ready to boost taxes on families making above $250,000 and on oil and gas companies, add spending for roads and schools and cull more modest savings from domestic programs.
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P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Optimism is my thing, man.

I'm bullish on AZ simply because Obama is making a serious play there. The only reason he didn't in 2008 was because McCain had the home state effect going for him. Against Romney it's fair game.

That combined with Brewer's antics and Carmona's relative strength as a candidate, this might be the year Arizona voters decide to give them Democrats a chance.

That said, it's a bit of a stretch. NV, MA, and ME will all turn blue before AZ does. Democrats probably have about the same chance there as they would in IN against not-Dick Lugar.
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It's also worth mentioning Arizona is ground zero for a major voter registration drive aimed at Latinos. I was reading a Time mag article about it awhile ago which basically said dems have recruited the best Hispanic voter registration dude in the area. I just hope they also plan on patrolling poll stations in November, and helping as many people get IDs as possible (if necessary).

In terms of Wisconsin, I guess the media can stop labeling it a swing state now
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-obama-leads-romney-in-wisconsin-by-11
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
PhoenixDark said:
It's also worth mentioning Arizona is ground zero for a major voter registration drive aimed at Latinos. I was reading a Time mag article about it awhile ago which basically said dems have recruited the best Hispanic voter registration dude in the area. I just hope they also plan on patrolling poll stations in November, and helping as many people get IDs as possible (if necessary).

In terms of Wisconsin, I guess the media can stop labeling it a swing state now
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-obama-leads-romney-in-wisconsin-by-11
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There are a ton of Mormons in the state, even those with hispanic roots. It will be interesting to see how the state plays out.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Kosmo said:
Why is the DoJ involved? (apologies if it's been addressed)
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To conduct a general independent investigation, and as a potential hate crime. Hence Obama's careful statement, and the WH's hesitation to say anything. Initially it was a local police matter but that quickly changed, obviously
 
A

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
Kosmo said:
Until we have a reasonable grasp of what exactly happened, he's implying that something that requires "soul searching" (i.e. Trayvon was completely innocent and gunned down without cause) happened. We have no idea if that was the case or not.
Click to expand...

There is no debate that Zimmerman mishandled the situation. The only question is whether the use of the firearm was potentially justified under Florida law. There is no reason to think Trayvon is mostly at fault here.


RoninChaos said:
That's not true in the south, bro. Minorities around here hate gay people. But they're usually bible thumpers too.
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I don't think he's worried about minorities in southern states, the only people who's votes really matter in a general election are those in swing states.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Kosmo said:
No doubt he said mostly the same thing, but what wasn't bolded from his statement is this:

Until we have a reasonable grasp of what exactly happened, he's implying that something that requires "soul searching" (i.e. Trayvon was completely innocent and gunned down without cause) happened. We have no idea if that was the case or not.
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Are you serious?
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Aaron Strife said:
You know they won't. It'll be portrayed as a nailbiter right up until election night when Obama wins it by double digits, same with Minnesota.
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Yeah, same with the last presidential election, and primary.

I guess it's a minor advantage for Obama, being portrayed as close probably helps turnout a bit.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Surprised no one is discussing the fact that majority of people still blame Bush and the GOP for the bad economy and Big Oil for the high gas prices.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
RustyNails said:
Surprised no one is discussing the fact that majority of people still blame Bush and the GOP for the bad economy and Big Oil for the high gas prices.
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What were the internals on that poll? It seemed too good to be true.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a $3.53 trillion budget proposal that would reduce spending by more than $5 trillion over 10 years compared to President Barack Obama's budget recommendations, would overhaul the federal Medicare program, and would reduce taxes and spending on certain programs.

The House voted 228-191 to pass the bill with 10 Republicans opposing it. Democrats unanimously opposed the measure.
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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/house-approves-paul-ryan-budget-plan-193500420.html

Ryan's bill got through the house. No chance in Senate, of course.
 
E

effzee

Member
DasRaven said:
It is an election year and since we have no vibrant national 3rd party anything an incumbent does will be used against them by their diametric opposition.
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I get that but somehow I don't get how they can sink so low to use this situation as a political argument, and especially because it does become a racial issue.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Suikoguy said:
What were the internals on that poll? It seemed too good to be true.
Click to expand...

Poll results here

To reiterate,
NEW CNN POLL SHOWS FORMER PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH STILL GETTING THE BLAME FOR THE ECONOMY; BARACK OBAMA APPROVAL OVER 50% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE THE DEATH OF OSAMA BIN LADEN.

Forget ‘Get America Working,’ Time to Get the GOP Working:

- 37% have a favorable view of Mitt Romney
- 56% have a favorable view of Obama
- 35% have a favorable view of the GOP
- 48% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party
- 56% blame Bush and the GOP for the economy
- 29% blame Obama and the Democrats for the economy

General election matchups: Obama up by double digits: 54% – 43% against Romney; 55% – 42% against Santorum; full results.
Click to expand...
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Can any armchair experts examine the internals and see if it's skewed one way or the other?

Those numbers paint a very very bleak picture for the GOP.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Optimism is my thing, man.

I'm bullish on AZ simply because Obama is making a serious play there. The only reason he didn't in 2008 was because McCain had the home state effect going for him. Against Romney it's fair game.

That combined with Brewer's antics and Carmona's relative strength as a candidate, this might be the year Arizona voters decide to give them Democrats a chance.

That said, it's a bit of a stretch. NV, MA, and ME will all turn blue before AZ does. Democrats probably have about the same chance there as they would in IN against not-Dick Lugar.
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Carmona's relative strength? He's a former surgeon general for Bush. That's not exactly a sterling electoral resume. Now, if Goddard were to run, the Democrats would have a quality candidate who's generated some credibility with the electorate.
Invisible_Insane said:
Nate Silver: Voting models based on fundamentals fail at predicting presidential elections.

Well worth a read.
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A timely response by John Sides.
Invisible_Insane said:
My teachers told me as a child that if I had the best ideas they would win the marketplace, and I've never gotten over it.
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She must not have been familiar with market failure.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Kosmo said:
N
Until we have a reasonable grasp of what exactly happened, he's implying that something that requires "soul searching" (i.e. Trayvon was completely innocent and gunned down without cause) happened. We have no idea if that was the case or not.
Click to expand...

Um, Trayvon was completely innocent and gunned down.

It's not a crime to walk down the street in a hoodie, and it's also not a crime to sock some weirdo in the face for following you around for no reason.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Vahagn said:
That's huge for Obama. If after all this time only 29% of the electorate blame Obama for the Economy...that basically lines up with the Republican party. You can't effectively run on the economy as a challenger if the electorate still thinks your party's policies are the problem
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And this is why Romney is wanting to get this farce of a primary over and done, the longer he has to stay in it (despite the inevitable conclusion of a victory) the more this divide will happen

Lord help him and the GOP if the Economy keeps in recovery, that is about the only thing they have to argue against another 4yrs of Obama
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
markatisu said:
And this is why Romney is wanting to get this farce of a primary over and done, the longer he has to stay in it (despite the inevitable conclusion of a victory) the more this divide will happen

Lord help him and the GOP if the Economy keeps in recovery, that is about the only thing they have to argue against another 4yrs of Obama
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I dunno. A lot of people are still convinced the Affordable Care Act is terribad, and all this controversy over insurance and contraception mandates ain't helping.

It remains to be seen how public support has swayed given talk of mandates on one side and the administration's new marketing campaign on the other, but the polls from February and March showed a majority favoring repeal:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/repeal_of_health_care_law_favoroppose-1947.html

If the bill is upheld by the Supreme Court, it could become a contentious issue come the GE. Even if the best the Republicans can say is "We'll repeal it."

Edit:

But my point here is that it's not *only* the economy that Republicans can talk about. Their chances of winning are still next to nil given the current climate.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Invisible_Insane said:
...did you read the article?
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I'd guess not. Also, though the European systems are not flawless, theirs are clearly superior to ours. We expend more resources for worse outcomes.
Puddles said:
That's not what I got out of the article at all.

You see this argument from the Right a lot, but I see no evidence that Europe will move away from universal coverage.
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What is the model for such a transformation? The U.S.? There's no evidence because such a transformation defies reason.
 
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